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Fibonacci Retracement

POPCATUSDT → False breakout of bearish trend resistanceBINANCE:POPCATUSDT.P is testing trend resistance on the 4H timeframe. A sharp approach and a false breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel may provoke a correction or continuation of the decline The global trend is downtrend, the locational trend also coincides with the global trend. Bitcoin cannot become a bullish driver for altcoins yet. Yesterday's economic news also had a negative impact on the market. In addition, the cryptocurrency community was betting big on Trump, but he has put cryptocurrencies on the back burner. Technically, POPCAT is testing the channel resistance with a false breakout within the downtrend. Consolidation of the price below 0.322 could trigger further selling. Resistance levels: 0.322, correction resistance Support levels: 0.2386, 0.1596 I do not exclude the possibility of retesting the resistance of the correction channel, but due to bearish pressure and weak market the decline may continue. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
SOLVUSDT → Retest of resistance in a bearish trendBINANCE:SOLVUSDT is strengthening within a neutral range, which is formed amid a downtrend. Cryptocurrency market quickly sells off potential after Sunday's news Bitcoin is back to the selling zone, under the 90K area. A subsequent decline in the flagship could negatively impact the entire market. SOLV is forming a range of 0.044 - 0.0292. The price is strengthening and tends to the zone of interest and liquidity. Against the background of key preconditions (downtrend, weak market, absence of driver, falling bitcoin) we can assume that the coin has no potential for further growth and the current maneuver may end up with a false break of resistance followed by a fall. Resistance levels: 0.0436, 0.0439, 0.0494 Support levels: 0.0369, 0.0345 From the opening of the session, the daily ATR will be exhausted by the time resistance is reached, thus there will be no potential for resistance breakout. High probability of a bounce from 0.0436-0.0439 with the purpose of further fall to the key zones of interest located below. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
Ethereum's Potential Bottom: Could $5000 Be Next?Ethereum has experienced a significant 56% drop over the last 84 days. Has ETH found its bottom, or is more downside ahead? Let's break it down. 🔹 Fibonacci Retracement from October Low (2023) to December High (2024) Starting with the Fibonacci retracement from the low of $1520.85 on 12th October 2023 to the high of $4109 on 16th December 2024, ETH recently hit the 0.886 Fib retracement at $1815.9 and saw a bounce. This area aligns with the Point of Control (POC) from previous price action, a potential signal that this could be a major support zone. However, the real question is whether this is the final bottom, or if ETH will retest lower levels. 🔹 Further Fibonacci Retracement Analysis Next, we take a larger Fibonacci retracement, from the low of $879.8 on 18th June 2022 to the high of $4109. The 0.786 Fib retracement at $1570.85 appears to be a critical support zone, as it also coincides with the POC in the volume profile of the entire market structure. This indicates that the $1570-$1600 region is a significant area of interest for buyers to step in. 🔹 Log Scale Fibonacci Confluence To further strengthen this analysis, applying the same Fibonacci retracement on a log scale shows the 0.618 Fib retracement at $1585.17, very close to the POC and 0.786 Fib level, reinforcing this region as a major support zone. 🔹 High-Probability Long Setup If ETH revisits the $1570-$1600 zone, this forms an ideal high-probability long setup with excellent risk/reward potential. A potential R:R ratio of more than 20:1 could materialise if this setup plays out and price targets $5000 as a take-profit level. The stop loss placement will determine the exact risk-to-reward, but the reward could be massive if this level holds. 💬 What are your thoughts? Will Ethereum find its bottom around these key levels? Excited to see how this develops! 🚀
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by SiDec
Solana: Time to Buy or More Pain Ahead?Solana has been in freefall since peaking at nearly $300 on January 19, 2025, dropping a staggering 61% to $115,47 in just 50 days, currently trading at around $119. A support zone for potential reversals. The big question now: Is this the time to go long, or is more selling pressure ahead? Let’s break it down. Key Support & Resistance Levels Lost Key Level at $120 Solana lost the key support at $120, turning it into a resistance zone. For bulls to regain control, SOL must reclaim this level with confirmation and increased volume. Next Key Lows to Watch Below the current price, the next key liquidity zones are at $110 and $105, where buyers may step in. Major Support Zone – $104 to $96 If selling continues, we have a strong support zone between $104.14 and $96.96, backed by multiple confluences: Anchored VWAP Support: Taking the anchored VWAP from the 2023 lows at $8, we find it currently aligning near $100, a key psychological level. Monthly Order Block: On the monthly timeframe, an order block sits right at $100 mark, reinforcing this level as strong support. 2024 Yearly Open: The yearly open from 2024 is at $101.72, adding another layer of confluence. 0.666 Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring from $8 to the all-time high of $295.83, the 0.666 Fib retracement is at $104.14, further strengthening this support zone. Liquidity Pools: There's a lot of liquidity around the $100 area Fib Speed Fan Support: The 0.7 Fib speed fan also aligns perfectly with this support zone. Conclusion: The $104–$97 range becomes a high-probability long entry zone with minimal risk. Long Trade Setup Entry Zone: $118 – $97 Stop Loss: Below $95 Take Profit Target: $135 Average Entry: $105 (DCA) Risk-to-Reward (R:R): a solid 3:1 or better Strategy & Execution With SOL already down over 60%, scaling into a long position makes sense. Here's how to do it the right way: 1️⃣ DCA Strategy – Instead of going all in, scale in gradually within the $118–$97 range for a better average entry. 2️⃣ Volume & Price Action – Watch for a spike in volume and bullish price action before adding to the position. 3️⃣ Psychological Level Play – There are likely many buy orders around $100, meaning a bounce before hitting lower support is possible. Stay tuned for updates as this trade unfolds! 🚀
Long
by SiDec
1
$NAS100 may settle around 17300 @ 0.382 Fib Retracement PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is already in the correction territory with down more than 10%. If this bear market holds grip, then we might get into the bear market territory with 20% or more correction. This might be coincidental. Let’s get to the numbers behind this reasoning. The lows on Aug 5th carry trade set back was 17300. The Trump 1.0 tariff also send the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 down by 23% before the market started a meaningful bounce. If we have a 23% drawdown from the top of PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 then we will be back @ 17300. If you plot the upward sloping Fib retracement levels on PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 which we discussed in this blog on 01 March when I sounded bearish predicting a 10% downturn in the near term. Link here. The 0.382 Fib retracement level in this long term upward sloping channel lies around 17300. Tell me coincidence but all these 3 indicators align at 17300. Will the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 settle at 17300 before this bear market correction is done and dusted? No one knows. Buy PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 from here till 17300.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100
by RabishankarBiswal
XLM Crashes Below Key Support – Is a Reversal Near?XLM has broken its previous low, raising the question: where is the next major support zone? To determine this, we will focus on fibonacci, moving averages, and order blocks to find a high-probability bounce area for a potential long position. 🔍 Fibonacci Retracement – Locating the Next Support Level Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from the low at $0.0757 to the high at $0.6374: 0.618 Fib Retracement → $0.2903 (Already Lost) ❌ Current Price: $0.248 Next Major Fib Level – 0.786 Retracement at $0.1959 Since the 0.786 Fib level is a key retracement point, we need further confluence factors to confirm its strength as a potential support zone. 🔗 Confluence Factors Strengthening the Support Zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179) 1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension High: $0.6374 A: $0.3179 B: $0.515 1:1 extension aligns at $0.1902 → Strong confirmation near 0.786 Fib retracement ✅ Wave A-B Fibonacci Extension 1.618 Fib extension from wave A to B is at $0.1875 → Aligns with the 1:1 trend-based extension ✅ Daily Support Level at $0.1962 Sits almost exactly at the 0.786 retracement ($0.1959) ✅ 21 EMA & 21 SMA for Moving Average Support 21 EMA at $0.20338 21 SMA at $0.17187 Order Block Between $0.2208 – $0.1964 Demand area aligns with the major support zone ✅ Key Takeaway: A high-probability support zone is now identified between $0.1959 and $0.17179, with multiple confluences suggesting a strong potential bounce. Trade Plan – Scaling Into a Long Position Given the strong confluence at the support zone, the best approach is scaling into a long trade. DCA Entry Strategy: Start scaling in at $0.22, as an order block exists between $0.2208 – $0.1964 Main focus remains on the support zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179) Stop Loss: Below the 21 SMA ($0.17187) for invalidation Take Profit Levels for Optimal R:R: First TP at $0.25 → Resistance area Next TP at $0.30 → Strong psychological & resistance level R:R Approximation: 2:1 R:R for first TP ($0.25) 3:1+ R:R if targeting $0.30 High-Probability Support Zone Identified ✔ Multiple confluences confirm a strong support zone at $0.1959 – $0.17179 ✔ Scaling into a long from $0.22 to $0.17179, with stop loss below the 21 SMA ($0.17187) ✔ Take profit levels set at $0.25 & $0.30 for a solid R:R trade Alternative bullish scenario: A reclaim of lost key low at $2526 with rising volume could signal a long opportunity, only on confirmation. 💬 Will XLM bounce from this key support? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀🔥
Long
by SiDec
2
Will BTC drop to further supports?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC. When we enter the one-day interval, we can see how the BTC price is moving under the local downtrend line. What's more, we can see here how we broke the uptrend line at the bottom, but we are still above the main uptrend line. Currently, we can see how the price is based on support at $ 79,339, but if we leave this support at the bottom, we still have strong support at $ 72,294, which is located at the golden FIB point 0.618, under it we can see the main trend line passing and then support at $ 62,217. Looking the other way, in a situation when the trend reverses, we can expect resistance at $ 85,562, then resistance is visible at $ 90,843, the next significant resistance is at $ 97,888, behind which we already have a very strong resistance zone from $ 103,060 to $ 109,481. On the MACD indicator, we can observe the continuation of the ongoing downward trend, in which at the moment there is no signal for the price to return. However, it is worth looking at the EMA Cross 50/200 indicator here, which, despite a strong decline, still maintains an upward trend, which may have a positive impact on the price in the coming weeks.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
GBPAUD → Correction to strong support before continuing growthFX:GBPAUD is forming a range with a consolidation target after breaking the base of the ascending triangle. The pound is correcting due to the dollar Technically, on the daily timeframe we have a strong bullish structure, the price is trying to accelerate after breaking the trend resistance, but against the background of the dollar correction the pound sterling is also making a small pullback. There are no strong fundamental changes and the general direction may continue. At the moment the focus is on ob, located in the zone of 2.0285, as well as the liquidity zone, which is located below 2.0285 + weekly low - 2.015, which also hides a huge pool of liquidity that can be tested. Resistance levels: 2.05088 Support levels: 2.0285, 2.0151 On the background of the uptrend and the correction to the support after the update of the maximum, we can consider the strategy - false breakdown of the support with the purpose of continuation of the growth. Emphasis on 2.0285 - 2.015 Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
1
BITCOIN → The fall continues... 82K → 76K → 73KBINANCE:BTCUSD is in a sell zone. Trump's comments on the federal reserve, crypto summit failed to impact the crypto market other than a global shakeup and liquidation... The market has failed to see a proper bullish driver, so far. Trump's comments on the Fed ended in a global shakeup (liquidation). Yesterday's summit went so far as to prevent the cryptovalt market from turning green. Technically. Global growth is temporarily halted, the flagship is moving into a deep correction phase, with 73K still the primary target. The market needs liquidity, as it will not be possible to grow at the expense of buyers and only bullish leverage all the time. Price is forming a 90K - 82K range in the short zone after exiting the global consolidation. False break of 91K resistance ( global consolidation support ) ended with a fall, which may continue to both 82K and 73.5K. Resistance levels: 89400, 91K, 93K Support levels: 82K, 78K, 73K The key zone of interest and liquidity is 73-66K. The price is working on a false break of resistance, the imbalance of forces in favor of bears, thus the first stop may happen in the zone of 82K ( lower boundary of the range ). Further it is necessary to observe the reaction to the support. Consolidation, breakdown and consolidation below 82K will provoke a fall to lower targets. Regards R. Linda!
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by RLinda
71
XRP BEFORE & AFTER@XRP Weekly-Monthly Analysis / Retracement...Weekly - Monthly trend: Bearish Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S) - Bearish Continuation Pattern Bearish Candlesticks signals: HANGING MAN (Bearish, Single Candlestick pattern) / Weekly Timeframe / 09 DEC 2024 BEARISH ENGULFING (Bearish, Double Candlestick pattern)/ weekly Timeframe / 27 JAN 2025 TWEEZER TOP (Bearish, Double Candlestick pattern) / 1 Day timeframe / 20 FEB 2025 FALLING THREE METHODS (Bearish, five-fold Candlestick pattern) / 1 Day timeframe / 07 MAR 2025 Retracement Fib Price Levels: 0.00% (3.4000) 23.60% (2.6879) 38.20% (2.2474) 50.00% (1.8914) 61.80% (1.5353) 78.60% (1.0284) 100.00% (0.3827) Good prices for buy (the lower the better): 61.80% (1.5353) – Golden Zone / Golden Pocket 78.60% (1.0284) – Entry Zone Between 78.60% (1.0284) and 100.00% (0.3827) is the Risk Zone, which we have the Neckline of the ‘’ Quadruple Bottom Pattern ‘’ at the price range ‘’ 0.6291 – 0.7850 ‘’ I am having buy limit at 0.78500 on the neckline of ‘’ Quadruple Bottom Pattern ‘’.
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by JohnA97
JUP in Danger: Are We in for a Crash?JUP has been on a four-day downtrend, and it's starting to show its bearish side. The token has lost its yearly open, which was a major support level. Let’s break down the key support and resistance to see what the chart is telling us. Support & Resistance Resistance: Yearly Open & Monthly Level: JUP has dropped below the yearly open at $0.8169 and the monthly level at $0.7427 Support: Long-Term Range & Liquidity: JUP has been trading within a range for over 300 days, with a significant amount of liquidity below the low at $0.6328 from 5 July 2024. POC: The volume profile shows the POC sitting at around $0.5, marking an attractive entry point for a long position. Fibonacci Confluence: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level falls just below the key low at $0.431 (a level last seen on 12 February 2024), offering a great long trade setup. Long Trade Opportunity: Alarms are set, let's see if JUP drops to these key support levels. If it does, we could have a solid long setup on our hands.
Short
by SiDec
1
ETC/USDT 1D chart reviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1D chart etc to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price moves in a slight side trend in which you can see the output sideways from the downward trend line. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face: T1 = 22.25 $ T2 = = $ 25.63 Т3 = 28.48 $ T4 = 31.06 $ Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market: SL1 = 19.04 $ However, you can still see a strong support zone that strongly maintains the price from a larger decline zone from $ 17.11 to $ 15.82. Looking at the RSI indicator, you can see a return to the center of the range despite slight price movements on the chart, however, there is still room for a potential new growth movement.
by cryptodailyuk
1
Bitcoin Butterfly Harmonic Pattern – Multi-Fibonacci Confluence!A potential Bullish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern is developing, with point D yet to be completed. If price action reaches the harmonic completion zone, it could present a high-probability long opportunity near a stacked Fibonacci confluence zone. The D-leg aligns beautifully with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 5-wave Elliott structure from the macro low at $15,476 to the all-time high of $109,588. A level that has acted as key support in the past. Multiple additional Fibonacci confirmations further strengthen this potential bullish reversal zone. Pattern Breakdown – Bullish Butterfly Formation The Butterfly Harmonic Pattern is a structured reversal setup, often forming at market extremes before trend shifts. 1️⃣ XA Leg – The initial impulse. 2️⃣ AB Leg – A retracement of 0.786 – 0.886 Fibonacci of XA. 3️⃣ BC Leg – A counter-trend move retracing 0.382 – 0.886 of AB. 4️⃣ CD Leg – The final move, typically extending 1.618 – 2.618 Fibonacci of XA. 📍 In this developing setup: ✅ B-point retraces 0.806 of XA → Butterfly pattern remains valid. ✅ C-point retraces 0.838 of AB → Strengthening structural alignment. ✅ D-leg projection target 1.695 XA extension, converging with multiple key Fibonacci levels. Fibonacci Confluence – Strong Potential Reversal Zone ($73,783.52 - $73,157) As price moves toward potential point D, multiple Fibonacci levels create a high-probability reversal area: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 5-wave Elliott structure ($73,637.22) Negative -0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $73,251.43 Negative -0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $73,157 Trend-based Fibonacci Extension 1:1 at $73,783.52 📍 Potential Reversal Zone: Between $73,783.52 and $73,157 Trade Setup – Waiting for Confirmation Since point D has not completed yet, we should wait for bullish confirmation signals in the reversal zone before entering. Entry Zone (if price reaches D): Between $73,783.52 and $73,157 Stop Loss: Below $73,157 (D-point invalidation) Take Profit: B-point resistance Risk-to-Reward (R:R): 3:1 if TP at B-point ⚠️ Key Reminder: 🚨 The pattern is not confirmed yet. A reaction in the potential reversal zone (e.g., bullish divergences, strong buying pressure, or reversal candlesticks) would strengthen the case for a long position. Are you watching this level for a potential reaction? Will point D complete? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🚀🔥
Short
by SiDec
2
Bitcoin: Mastering the Art of Resistance and SupportBitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present. Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest: Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red. 90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively. The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments. 1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis 1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800 A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle. Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target: 1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & Retest Bitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range). Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries. Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05: Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes. 1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving Averages In addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance. 1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Alignment Bearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21. Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K: 1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci Confluence Monthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K. Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block. Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67: When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals: 2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out 2.1. Scaling In (Entries) We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206: Short Trade Laddered Entries: Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K). Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the GETTEX:25K position, or 1.03% of the $100k account). 2.2. Scaling Out (Exits) We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10: Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the $100k account). Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade. 3. Support Analysis & Long Thesis Having addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade. 3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave Structure The double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588. A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence? 5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637: 3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib Confluence Monthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in. Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone. Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280. Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62: 3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend Line Fib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month. Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far. Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K: 3.4. Potential Long Trade Setup Entry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone). Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer. Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce. Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target. 4. Summary Short Trade: Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K. Laddered Entry: GETTEX:25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560. Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account). R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup. Long Trade: Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences. Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K. Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward. Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility. Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus. Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.
Short
by SiDec
8
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of NFP. What can happen?FX:XAUUSD is heading for resistance after a false breakdown of 2895. The market continues to test 2926 with the aim to break this zone. There is news ahead and the risks of increased volatility are growing. Markets remain jittery over Trump's tariff plans, which supported gold demand. Trade tensions and mixed U.S. jobs data are adding to inflation risks, which could weaken the dollar. All eyes are on the NFP report. Based on the analysis of the last few reports, a rough conclusion is that on average in the first 15 minutes, weak data led gold to rise 60 points and strong data led gold to fall 50 points However, other factors such as inflation and data revisions may dampen the market reaction. The final effect depends on investors' assessment of the Fed's future policy. Resistance levels: 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2912.5, 2909.5, 2895 Before the news, the price may test 2926 with a false breakout (MM trap for liquidity) and roll back to the nearest support. But further prospects depend on the news. Gold is in consolidation 2926 - 2895. On the background of possible weak data gold may overcome 2926 and accelerate to ATH. Strong data may provoke profit taking and correction to 2895 - 2875 Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
AUDUSD → Retest of the imbalance zone before growth FX:AUDUSD on the back of strong dollar decline has all chances for further growth, but today, Friday, the risks are quite high, as NFP is ahead... The currency pair is forming a local uptrend, in tandem with the falling dollar the Aussie may continue its strengthening course. On the 4H a local correction to the imbalance zone is forming, where a rather strong support line 0.63 is just passing. The price is forming a false breakout and after capturing liquidity is trying to consolidate higher. If the bulls can keep the defense above 0.63 - 0.633, the price will be able to continue the growth phase in the short and medium term. Support levels: 0.63, 0.6255 Resistance levels: 0.633, 0.6363 Consolidation above 0.63, subsequent rise and consolidation above 0.633 is an ideal scenario that could confirm the bulls' intentions to go higher. But, NFP and other news are ahead. Risks are rising and we should expect high volatility in the markets Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
BTC/USD 1D Chart ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC. When we enter the one-day interval, we can see how the BTC price is moving in the formed downtrend channel in which we are again approaching its upper limit. Here you can see how the current rebound has approached the resistance zone from $ 92,851 to $ 95,975, which the price cannot break through, only when we exit it upwards will the path open towards resistance at $ 99,903. Looking the other way, we can see that in the first place we have a significant support zone from $ 93,477 to $ 79,907, which currently manages to keep the price from larger declines. However, when the zone is broken, we can see the price going down to the level of $ 75,354. On the MACD indicator we can observe a fight to return to the upward trend in which we have a lot of room for price increases, while on the RSI indicator we are approaching the middle of the range which still gives room for growth, however, at this level we could previously see a reaction, which is something to watch out for.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of Friday's NFP. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD stops and forms consolidation within the range 2926 - 2894.9. A false break of support may bring the market back to its senses amid the bearish dollar rally A weaker dollar and expectations of Fed policy easing are supporting demand for the metal despite a pause in Trump's tariff measures. Traders are waiting for key NFP data that could determine the future trajectory of the dollar and Fed policy. For today, all eyes are on Initial Jobless Claims. Technically, gold within the 2926 - 2894 range is looking to test the liquidity zone on the support side as there is an unfilled fvg below 2894.9. Against the backdrop of gold's bullish trend and falling dollar, the chances of a rebound are quite high Resistance levels: 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2894.9, 2878.7 Price may test the daily low or fvg, form a false breakdown of one of the mentioned support zones and continue to rise after capturing liquidity within the global uptrend Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
USDJPY → Readiness to break the daily support levelFX:USDJPY is testing strong key support at 148.64 for a breakdown. A falling dollar could affect further movement The falling dollar is supporting the Japanese Yen, thus we may see the currency pair falling. The price is trying to break the support of the daily level. A pre-breakdown consolidation of 150.3 - 148.64 is formed relative to this support. The last retest of the level ended with a small false breakdown, indicating that there is no one to defend the support anymore, there was no reaction except for another local consolidation, the purpose of which is to accumulate the potential to break the support. Resistance levels: 150.3, 150.95 Support levels: 148.64, 147.17 The focus is on the level of 148.64 concerning which the market is struggling. The bulls have little chance to hold this level, as the dollar's fall exerts quite a lot of pressure. The breakdown and fixing of the price below 148.64 may provoke a fall to 147 - 144. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3