Get started

Fibonacciretracements

KayCee Industries - See the "C"s (Cups)Kaycee Industries - on Weekly has Interestingly repeating pattern. Something very similar to TRIL I noticed last year. After 4 repeated Cups, TRIL stopped creating Cups but rather flew away. Very similar structure here Look at 4 different colored Fib retracements 1. Green - 0.618 retracement - precisely reached 1.618 target 9578 and fell 2. Orange - 0.618 retracement - precisely reached 1.618 target 14418 and fell 3. Blue - This time 0.5 retracement - with target of 23500, but fell slightly before 4. Pink - Again 0.618 retracement - precisely reached both 1.618 and 2.618 targets (32,900 and 43,726) By this time the Parallel Channel is decisively broken on the upside, and now retracement journey starts Very interesting structure - if the price gets reduced due to Bonus & Stock Splits - let's wait for the price change + wait for correction to retest the BO zone of Parallel channel and review again Love this Chart - repetitions add to the credibility of the stock and technical analysis Disclaimer: 3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading... We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side" *** Important *** Consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
BSE:KAYCEEI
by Stocks-n-Trends
UNVEILING THE COMPREHENSIVE ARSENAL OF TRADING TOOLS The trading landscape in the 21st century is characterized by a revolutionary fusion of cutting-edge technology and financial acumen. As the accessibility of trading increases, traders wield a versatile suite of tools that encompass chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator. This in-depth exploration delves into the profound significance of these tools, unraveling their collective potential to empower proactive traders with precision, insight, and strategic advantage. The Evolution of Modern Trading Tools: The digital age has ushered in a new era of trading prowess, where rapid data flows and advanced software solutions redefine the boundaries of trading. Enabled by the synergy of computers, high-speed internet, and sophisticated charting software, traders enjoy real-time access to data analytics and market trends. Within this realm, a rich repository of tools is available, catering to traders' diverse needs with heightened precision and predictive power. Chart Patterns : Deciphering Market Sentiment: Chart patterns occupy a pivotal role as visual conduits of market psychology and price action trends. From classic formations like double bottoms to iconic patterns like head and shoulders, these visual representations encapsulate historical price movements and inform future price dynamics. Proactive traders leverage chart patterns to anticipate pivotal reversals and breakout points, weaving together historical trends and human behavioral insights into actionable trading strategies. Fibonacci Retracements: Unveiling Harmonious Ratios: At the nexus of mathematics and trading, Fibonacci retracements harmonize the natural ratios discovered by Leonardo of Pisa, known as Fibonacci. These ratios, including the Golden Ratio (0.618) and its derivatives, echo natural proportions that echo throughout nature and financial markets. Traders utilize these retracements to identify potential support and resistance levels, choreographing entry and exit points with a mathematical precision that complements market intuition. Andrews' Pitchfork: Sculpting Market Trends: From the annals of technical analysis emerges Andrews' pitchfork—a tool that imparts structure to market trends. Crafted by Dr. Alan Andrews, this method employs three pivotal price points to map out potential trend channels, identify support and resistance zones, and navigate the ebb and flow of market movements. Proactive traders harness this tool's prowess to create strategies that thrive within these discernible channels. Zig Zag Indicator : Distilling Price Trends: Navigating the labyrinthine price chart is simplified by the Zig Zag indicator—a tool designed to eliminate market noise and elucidate significant price movements. This indicator employs precise highs and lows to create lines that showcase trends with clarity, ensuring that traders are privy to substantial trends while disregarding minor fluctuations. In this manner, the Zig Zag indicator becomes a beacon amidst market complexity. A Synergistic Trading Arsenal: The amalgamation of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator engenders a holistic trading approach of unparalleled potency. While chart patterns unveil market psychology, Fibonacci retracements contribute mathematical precision, Andrews' pitchfork orchestrates trend analysis, and the Zig Zag indicator distills trends from noise, thus harmonizing a comprehensive trading strategy. Conclusion: In an era marked by unceasing innovation, success in trading is predicated upon the adept utilization of a multifaceted toolset. The amalgamated prowess of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator constitutes a comprehensive arsenal that empowers traders with foresight, precision, and strategic edge. As the 21st-century trading milieu continues its evolution, mastery over these tools remains pivotal, transforming the intricate dynamics of financial markets into a realm of opportunity and achievement. TCPLTP
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
IWM: Something is Rotten in the State of MarketsPrimary Chart: IWM on a weekly timeframe with downtrend line and major support and resistance zones Note1: IWM is an iShares ETF that represents the Russell 2000 small-cap index in the United States. Though not as widely tracked as SPX, NDX, or DJIA, the Russell 2000 ( TVC:RUT ) is one of the major US indices. It is likely the fourth most watched US index. Note2: The phrase "something is rotten in the state of Denmark" is a well-known line from Shakespeare's play Hamlet used to describe a situation where something is wrong or even corrupt within a government, institution, or system. No corruption is intended to be implied discussed. The title's allusion to this phrase is meant to suggest only that something is off / wrong in the markets, i.e., that everything is not well despite the strength of the Nasdaq 100 lately and the support seen in SPX. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. The primary chart shows how IWM has struggled below the upper blue rectangular zone, a resistance / supply zone going back to highs in March and April 2022. This zone also rejected price at the end of the impressive August 2022 rally that had everyone debating whether the bull-market had returned in earnest. Lastly, on February 2, 2023, IWM was unable to even tag the lower edge of this zone, eking out a high at $199.26. The lower edge of this blue resistance zone as drawn here is at HKEX:200 - HKEX:201 approximately. The Primary Chart above also shows an important Fibonacci support level at $170. This the 50% retracement of the entire bull market from the 2020 Covid lows to the highs in November 2021. This has also marked important support since late October 2022 (a week or two after the October 2022 lows). Notice the weekly candle wicks protruding below this line but recovering back above it. The final point about the Primary Chart is the down TL from the all-time high in magenta. This was broken to the upside, which was one of the reasons many market participants and commentators got excited about the bear being complete. That trendline was retested in late March 2023. But despite this positive development, IWM has not acted well. In fact, it has broken decisively below a multi-month upward trendline from October 2022 lows as shown on the Primary Chart as well. This trendline was also important and signifies weakness on the decisive break below it. On the larger scale, price is trapped between the blue rectangular zones of support and resistance. Until these break, not much progress is likely in either direction. Sideways action is likely for the coming weeks. The one thing that would negate the sideways action view is a clean break back below the down trendline from the all-time high. So keep an eye out for that development. Next, Supplementary Chart A.1 and A.2 below shows a hypothetical illustration of how price could move sideways for the coming weeks / months before a flush below major support (if one is bearish about equities generally) or a rally above the key resistance zone (if one is bullish about equities generally). SquishTrade gives an edge to the bears in the intermediate to longer-term time frames—as long as price stays below both (1) the uptrend line from October 2022 lows, and (2) the key Fibonacci levels of the most recent decline (shown on the Primary Chart at $183.36 and $187.11). Supplementary Chart A.1 (measured corrective move upward where the legs of the corrective move might be equal or share a 1.272 Fibonacci relationship) Supplementary Chart A.2 (choppy sideways action that retests the upward TL from the October 2022 lows that had broken down in March 2023 before heading lower again) Supplementary Chart B is a zoomed-out version of the major resistance and support level shown on the Primary Chart. This is intended to show the ranging action for months that has taken place despite periods of seemingly impressive strength and sharp weakness. Supplementary Chart B The next chart, Supplementary Chart C, illustrates what a trendline might look like if someone were considering this chart afresh, i.e., for the first time without having tracked the prior trendlines during the 2021-2022 bear market. The TL has been re-drawn to account for the recent major highs at the end of the January to February 2023 rally. Supplementary Chart C IWM's anchored VWAPs are not encouraging. Here, the only VWAPs considered are the one anchored to the all-time high in November 2021 (blue-purple line) and the 2022 low (orange line). Price made a false breakout above the VWAP from the all-time high and failed back below. That in itself is a negative especially given that this occurred on a larger time frame going back to 2021. Price has also failed below the October 2022 VWAP as well. Supplementary Chart D Finally, and most importantly, consider the ratio spread of IWM/SPY in Supplementary Chart E below . This tracks the performance of the Russell 200 relative to the S&P 500. This is why something might be rotten in the state of Denmark (markets). A healthy market should not have an index looking this bad. Let me know what you think in the comments. Supplementary Chart E The ratio spread shows that IWM's underperformance just broke below a key support level for that ratio. But bigger support lies below. However, the overall picture looks bleak for IWM with a downtrend line that has lasted for a while, and lower highs for the ratio's value on higher time frames. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:IWM
by SquishTrade
18
PEPE - 77% crash ready, but re-buy exactly here! (best meme?) I think PEPE is a great coin, but we need to buy it cheaper. The 0.618 FIB retracement is a reasonable level to buy the PEPE coin if you believe in another pump. There should be one more pump to new all-time highs after the ABC correction. This coin is very volatile, which is definitely a good sign for all traders because the volatility increases the chance of success. But for holders, the volatility can be something like a roller coaster. 77% dump is very possible. If we take a close look at the waves from the start of the small bear market, we can clearly see an impulse of 12345, which suggests pretty strong selling pressure. It indicates that the ABC correction is probably in play, and we need to complete it before we can continue to a new all-time high. PEPE coin is ranked #66, which is still not that high. It's a pretty good meme coin, and that's why I think the bull market is not over yet. I recommend this coin for all intraday and swing traders because the volume is pretty high and the volatility is as well. In this analysis, I told you where to buy PEPE for another huge pump if you are interested in this coin but don't want to FOMO-in! This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately. Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
164
BTC Has Reached a Long-Term Logarithmic Trendline Primary Chart: BTC's Long-Term Upward Trendline that Has Held as Support since 2013 (Weekly Log Chart) BTC Appears to be holding right at a long-term trendline that has held as strong support since 2013. The chart above is a logarithmic chart, which can help present a more accurate perspective of price action and price relationships when the chart covers a great deal of price history that spans a significant range of values. The decline since the all-time high has been severe, but relative to BTC's entire price history as shown on the log chart, in percentage terms, the bear-market decline looks less severe than it does on the regular, linear-scaled price chart. On the linear chart, BTC's decline has also reached key make or break levels determining whether the recent corrective bear rally will continue or whether new lows will be reached sooner than later. The Fibonacci Retracement levels below must hold if BTC is to avoid—at least in the next few weeks—heading back to test lows or make new lows. If the retracement levels below do not hold or are not recaptured—specifically the .618 R (which has already been broken this past week) and the .786 R, then BTC likely will be testing lows soon. Supplementary Chart A: BTC's Fibonacci Retracement Levels Near Term But the long-term trendline should also be watched. Given it's significance, it may be retested even if broken, making for frustrating trading for bears / bulls alike. Good luck trading this week everyone. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD FTX:BITOUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
10
TSLA Looks Exhausted; Flashes a Reversal SignalA few months ago, SquishTrade wrote a bearish technical analysis on TSLA that forecasted a drop to a series of targets that were all reached. TSLA's downward move was more violent and rapid than anyone may have expected. Indeed, TSLA broke down from a huge head-and-shoulders pattern. Supplementary Chart A is the head and shoulders pattern that broke through its neckline in October 2022. It backtested and chopped for a bit, then fell like a stone. What seemed to be a move that would take several months to a year happened in about 2 short months. Supplementary Chart A Now, meme mania and the most-shorted stock list has lead the massive rally from October 2022 lows. This list includes stocks like TSLA, and investors filled with fear of missing out on the next massive moon event have piled into this stock. They've been helped by short-covering hedge funds who were like pigs lined up at the feeding trough but gorged a bit too long for their own health. TSLA now looks exhausted. Note that this does not mean it heads straight back to lows. It could—it already made an unexpectedly massive down move from October to December 2022, and that was after a not so pretty decline in the first half of 2022. Markets and major stocks have been inflicting pain on traders of all stripes this year, so even if TSLA decides to make new lows underneath 2022 lows, it may not do so in an obvious or expected fashion. Several technical points suggest that price will soon reverse. TSLA's price has likely exhausted this current rally higher. What happens next depends on the broader equity markets' direction, the nature of risk appetite relative to risk-free assets (government bonds such as the 10-year Treasury note, the 30-year Treasury bond, the macro environment (inflation, recession, price of money / interest rates) and TSLA's fundamentals as consumers' spending power likely begins to suffer from the rising price of money. Note the orange rectangle, which is a major supply and resistance zone. Price has rallied right up to it without consolidating for any significant time beyond a day or two. This major resistance (formerly supply under the concept of parity) coincides with the 50% retracement of the last major wave of decline (green line). A gravestone doji, evening doji star, shooting star, or spinning top has formed. Each candlestick pattern mentioned could be applied to this (perhaps the spinning top is a stretch). But the label isn't as important as what the implication it provides. It shows indecision right at a time when major resistance has been reached. Indecision is not the kind of state in which price action should be when it approaches such a significant level. But it arrived here too sharply, too fast. So it's exhausted right when it shouldn't be, right when extra momentum and vigor is needed for buyers to push through this level. Note that patterns containing the term "star" are not valid unless a third confirmation candle pushes down into the body of the candle that preceded the star. A negative divergence appears using the Bollinger Bands. The divergence is more apparent using the %B indicator rather than the Bollinger Bands themselves. This shows that while price has made higher high on February 8-9, 2023, in terms of standard deviation, the high is actually a lower high as shown by the fact that the Bollinger Bands were not pierced by the highs over the last few days. Further explanations appear on Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Next, consider price targets, assuming price reverses here or a just bit higher. The most obvious target is the 50% to 61.8% retracement of the current rally. Those Fibonacci levels lie on either side of the huge gap fill area, another obvious target, shown by the magenta rectangle on the Primary Chart. The list of price targets follows: Target 1: $200 (most conservative) Target 2: $171.14 (somewhat conservative) Target 3: $157.91 (moderately aggressive) Target 4: $144.67 (fairly aggressive) Target 5: $125.82 (aggressive) No one can be certain in trading, investing, and forecasting. But traders can be sleuths, examining the charts for bits of evidence to see if they tilt the probabilities in one direction or the other. The probabilities here are tilted lower in the short-term and intermediate term. Yes, price could pull back and then make a higher high after that, or price could pull back and fall to retest / break December 2022 lows. A linear regression channel from the highs suggests that the downtrend could continue this year, but that is not as certain as the likelihood of a near term reversal and decline in price that ends the current rally. Finally, consider the long-term view. The uptrend remains intact. But don't be deceived by that if you bought at $150-$180 over the last couple weeks and are counting your profits. The uptrend line remains down at $39-$45 depending on the time when it would be tagged (over the remainder of 2023). Supplementary Chart C ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by SquishTrade
12
BTC May Take the Scenic RouteRegardless of whether you are a bear or a bull, BTCUSD will probably take the scenic route. This may sound like max pain theory, and it probably is. One follower asked recently for an update on BTC. My last BTC post called for another push higher before going lower. A the time that was published, BTC traded in the upper $18000s and the downward TL (log scale) was just overhead. BTC then moved higher to the downtrend line, paused, and then broke above it. This coincided with major US equity indices and many other risk assets that broke above similar down TLs. This removes some of the certainty that an effective downtrend line provides, i.e., it contains price and provides a reasonable entry point for short positions in a downtrend and reasonable entry point for long positions in an uptrend. For those who think the break of an uptrend is conclusive signal that price is returning to all-time highs, beware of the history of past bear markets in equities. This happened with SPX in 2000-2002. A chart of SPX from 2000-2002 is also included to show the break of the down TL that eventually failed. Supplementary Chart A SquishTrade does not assert that BTC will necessarily follow this pattern in SPX shown by a upside break of its major down TL in the 2000-2002 bear market. Rather, this example serves to illustrate why a trendline break alone isn't necessarily and all-clear signal or a trend-reversal signal on a larger time frame. It just takes away some of the certainty that had existed when that trendline effectively contained price below it, and reversed price every time it rallied to meet it. Furthermore, a down trendline is not the only measure of a trend. Moving averages, Ichimoku Cloud and others perhaps capture the more flexible nature of a trend, and include a cushion (much like the wider cloud does within the Ichimoku system). Not every market participants market memory is at the same exact angled line. Using a weekly Ichimoku Chart, BTCUSD remains in a downtrend, characterized by the very wide cloud that is red colored (because the Senkou Span B line remains above the Senkou Span A line—bullish would be a green cloud where the SSA line is trending above the SSB line), and confirmed by price trending well below the cloud. Supplementary Chart B (Ichimoku Cloud Weekly Chart) The daily Ichimoku Cloud chart, however, looks quite bullish. Price has broken above the cloud, the cloud has turned green, and things look hopeful on this timeframe. So why is price stalling? Probably because major resistance lies overhead despite what shorter time frames suggest. Another measure of trend includes VWAPs and long-term moving averages. The VWAP from the November 2021 all-time high lies around 30,000 today. The 50-week moving average, interestingly, lies right at the major resistance level shown by the blue rectangle sitting at mid-August 2022 highs. This 50-week MA (not shown) is at 25,040 today. The 100-week MA is even higher. These are important trend measures as well and lie overhead and slope downward. Fibonacci retracements help to show where a corrective move may end, and the 50% retracement seems like a very firm resistance level that would not be broken in the near term absent market chicanery. The 50% retracement is at $32,681. In fact, corrective retracements at every degree of trend (here the primary degree is shown) can retrace up to 61.8% or 78.6% of the prior wave. In this case, the prior wave could constitute the decline from the ATH to the November 2022 low, and the retracement could run all the way to $38,900 before failing and returning to lows. Wish more certainty could be provided, but these possibilities remain on the table. But overall, the technicals remain highly uncertain. Price could tag the $25,000 resistance, move down to the magenta uptrend line and then return to tag some key level in the lower half of the massive trading range that formed BTC's topping pattern in 2021. When price action is this uncertain in an asset, it makes sense to step aside unless one is acquiring for a very long term hold (like a buy-and-hold investor or a "hodler"). Even buy-and-hold investors should incrementally scale into their investment (a key tactical strategy often noted by @SPY_Master) with sound technical and fundamental arguments and invalidation levels too on larger time frames. In the near term, price could easily move up to tag the resistance from the prior August 15, 2022 high, which may create a final, and more drastic divergence before a pullback. This seems a bit more likely, but again, don't rely on anyone's forecast, watch the price action and the levels if you can. To reiterate, that key level is just overhead, and lies at $25,200. If that $25,200 level is broken above and held, then the .382 retracement—which coincides with the lower-edge of BTC's topping range—could easily be reached at $27,300-$28,032. But before price can move any higher, it has to move over the teal-colored VWAP shown on the Primary Chart above. That has been a difficult level for BTC in the last couple weeks. BTC seems to be chopping above and below it. In the bulls favor (short term), that VWAP is flattening however. The intermediate-term uptrend is defined by the magenta line on the Primary Chart above. A pullback to this line would actually be reasonable and healthy consolidation for bulls if this uptrend is to continue and actually attack the larger downtrend on weekly Ichimoku Charts or the downtrend as represented by the VWAP from the all-time high (dark blue at $30,000 today). Finally, consider that major negative momentum divergences have appeared on the daily chart. This doesn't mean price will crash suddenly to new lows, but it does suggest the upward move is in its final stages right near major resistance levels. This could lead to a sharp pullback at a minimum to the uptrend line. Or it could break that uptrend line if enough fear and force allow. That should be watched closely. If the magenta uptrend line is broken decisively, watch out for a new low. Hope this post helps provide new perspectives about what levels to watch in the coming weeks, and what price levels are important to consider. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
24
DXY May Be Reversing Back Higher AgainPrimary Chart: DXY Daily Chart with Upward Trendline, Downward Trendline and Fibonacci Levels Dollar strength starting in early 2021 lasted until the fall of 2022. It was nothing short of impressive. But DXY (the dollar measured against a basket of five other major currencies) started topping in September 2022 and then began making lower lows and lower highs, the very definition of a downtrend. Technical evidence shows that DXY may be reversing higher. Interestingly, it is reversing higher right at key support shown by the dark purple line at 101.29. No one knows whether DXY will return to all-time highs or whether it will fail at one of the many technical obstacles presented on the Primary Chart above. But one can extrapolate from the technicals that a significant reversal has taken place in the dollar. This may lead to multi-week or multi-month strength, or it may lead to a choppy price action that retraces some portion of the downtrend since September 2022 (see Fibonacci levels above) or creates an sideways choppy range for some time. The main technical points concerning this reversal follow: DXY was in primary-degree uptrend since May 2021, and this ended at a high of $114.77 in September 2022. Note the yellow uptrend line that dates back to the May 2021 lows. After reaching its high in September 2022, DXY began forming lower highs and lower lows. This started with a trading range that lasted for some time indicated by the teal rectangle covering price action from September to November 2022. This area forms an area of major resistance that could likely be reached as part of a backtest of this range or a move to new multi-year highs. The 8-hour DXY chart shows the Bollinger Bands' jaws opening (2 standard deviations) indicating an expansion of volatility consistent with the start of a new trend. Price is now walking the bands, a sign of strength and momentum sufficient to continue the start of a new trend. This technical feature should soon translate to the Bollinger Bands on a daily chart, which still show compression. Price first pierced the lower Bollinger Band, which is a fakeout that is not uncommon just before a breakout after a volatility squeeze (shown by compression in the bands). See Supplementary Chart A below. Supplementary Chart A The first (most conservative) target is a backtest of the yellow uptrend line from May 2021. That lies around $103.60 to $104.50 in the next few days. If the yellow uptrend line is reclaimed, that will be a further bullish development that will likely lead to a significant retracement of the decline from September 2022. In this case, the second conservative target is $106.15, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this multi-month decline. The third target is the 50% retracement at $107.80, and it is reasonable to expect if the yellow uptrend line is reclaimed. The final target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $109.44, and this is also valid target if the yellow uptrend line is reclaimed. This level coincides with major resistance (formerly support) at the base of the trading range that developed as DXY was topping in September - early November 2022. One could make a bold prediction (bearish on risk assets) that the dollar is heading back to new all-time highs. Or one could say that risk assets will continue to rise to new all-time highs so this move in the dollar will be short-lived. These are both rooted in a biased idea of how DXY and SPX / NDX correlate and should move in the intermediate term. Rather than making bold predictions from a clear reversal in DXY, it helps to remain open to the price action and how it unfolds. We can recognize the reversal for what it is and what it implies without the need to become mired in tenuous predictions about whether DXY is returning to new all time highs. If price recovers the .618 retracement, the odds rise dramatically for new all-time highs. But until then, we can expect dollar strength based on the reversal patterns discussed. And the Fibonacci retracements are not unreasonable targets to expect in the coming weeks and months. Lastly, consider that the dollar remains in an uptrend that has existed even longer than the one since May 2021. This is the 15-year uptrend represented in the Supplementary Charts B.1 and B.2 below. The yellow line on the Primary Chart only represents a rate of trend that has existed for a little more than 1.5 years, but this trend has occurred within an even larger degree uptrend in place since about 2008. Supplementary Chart B.1 Supplementary Chart B.2 Thank you for reading and considering these charts! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:DXYLong
by SquishTrade
4
📊 Fibonacci Trading: Extension LevelsThe Fibonacci retracement tool plots percentage retracement lines based upon the mathematical relationship within the Fibonacci sequence. These retracement levels provide support and resistance levels that can be used to target price objectives. Fibonacci Retracements are displayed by first drawing a trend line between two extreme points. A series of six horizontal lines are drawn intersecting the trend line at the Fibonacci levels of 0.0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. 📍 How this indicator works The percentage retracements identify possible support or resistance areas, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100%. Applying these percentages to the difference between the high and low price for the period selected creates a set of price objectives. Depending on the direction of the market, up or down, prices will often retrace a significant portion of the previous trend before resuming the move in the original direction. These countertrend moves tend to fall into certain parameters, which are often the Fibonacci Retracement levels. 📍 Calculation Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, and so on. 📍 What Are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions are a tool that traders can use to establish profit targets or estimate how far a price may travel after a pullback is finished. Extension levels are also possible areas where the price may reverse. Drawn as connections to points on a chart, these levels are based on Fibonacci ratios (as percentages). Common Fibonacci extension levels are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%. 🔹 Because Fibonacci ratios are common in everyday life, some traders believe these common ratios may also have significance in the financial markets. 🔹 Fibonacci extensions don't have a formula. Rather, they are drawn at three points on a chart, marking price levels of possible importance. 🔹 The Fibonacci extensions show how far the next price wave could move following a pullback. 🔹 Based on Fibonacci ratios, common Fibonacci extension levels are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%. 🔹 Extension levels signal possible areas of importance, but should not be relied on exclusively. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
4
Bear Bounce in META May Push Further before Downtrend ContinuesPrimary Chart: Daily Time Frame, 8-D and 21-D EMAs, Long-Term Fibonacci Levels (Retracements of META's Entire Range), Uptrend from Nov. 4, 2022 Low SUMMARY: META remains in a severe downtrend since its all-time high in September 2021. The primary-degree trendline remains unbroken and in effect. A shorter down trendline for most of 2022 has been broken coinciding with its recent upside price action. META is experiencing a corrective rally, also known as a bear bounce (until proven otherwise). Bollinger Bands support the idea of further upside with the mouth of the bands expanding, and price walking the bands to the upside. The Donchian Channels also show that price is reaching multi-month highs, and its 21-period range is expanding as price pushes higher. Target 1 lies at $142. Target 2 is $149. Target 3 is $157-$158. Each target requires that price reach and hold the prior target on a daily close. Each target is a condition precedent for the next target's viability. Invalidation levels include the uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows as well as major support levels at $112 (key structural low), $115-$116 (volume profile). META began its decline much earlier than the broader indices. It peaked at an ATH on September 1, 2021, while SPX peaked on January 4, 2022. It has appeared to lead indices by a few months in this bear market. The long-term uptrend line from 2012 more than a decade ago was decisively broken in early 2022. This suggests that it may take a while for META to begin carving out a new uptrend line at a less steep angle based on whatever bear-market lows are formed—whether that be the November 4, 2022 low or a (likely) new low in 2023. Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of META with Decade-Long Upward Trendline The bear-market downtrend lines are shown on Supplementary Chart B. The pink line on the Primary Chart reflects the primary-degree of trend since the all-time high in mid-2022. That line has not been broken, and price remains well below it. The dark-blue line is a shorter trendline that lasts for most of 2022. It was broken to the upside in early December 2022. This is no surprise. Steeper trendlines are less sustainable, and often end up being replaced by their less steep counterparts. The break of the dark-blue line is not an end to the bear market, but it does signal a short-term shift that coincides with the sideways to higher corrective rally taking place. Supplementary Chart B: Trendlines within META's Current Bear Market In this bear market, META made its most recent low on November 4, 2022. An uptrend drawn from that low is drawn (pink line on Primary Chart above). META's short-term EMAs show that it has been rallying in earnest since this November 4 low. Note the slope of the 8-D EMA and the 21-D EMA. While these are simple indicators, sometimes their simplicity can cause some to miss the power of their message—indicating the short-term trend. The short-term trend remains positive, with price finding support at these EMAs. When price falls below the 21-D EMA, it quickly rises to reclaim it. See Primary Chart. The Bollinger Bands also reflect the upward rally, which should be deemed corrective until proven otherwise. The Bollinger Bands are widening at the mouth, and when price pushes through the bands to exhaustion levels (set at 2 standard deviations on this daily chart), it falls back but quickly pushes back into the bands. Yes, the CPI could end this prematurely, but technical analysis suggests this stock has further to run before it resumes its longer-term downtrend. Supplementary Chart C: Bollinger Bands Similar to the Bollinger Bands, the Donchian Channels also reflect an increase in volatility to the upside. Price is pushing new multi-month highs, which is easily seen using this indicator. As the upper band of the Donchian presses higher with price touching it, that reflects new 21-trading-day highs. But a quick glance at the chart below shows that the highs exceed all highs since late October lows. The October 2022 highs are the ones that will likely be taken out next if the rally continues. Supplementary Chart D: Donchian Channels Major support lies at $112, and $115-$116. In addition, the upward TL can easily be used as an invalidation level for any short-term bullish trades. It can also be used as confirmation for any shorts that wish to enter when the bounce exhausts. Targets are based on the measured-move concept and Fibonacci proportions. Target 1 is $142. That is the 150-day SMA. Target 2 is $149. This level is the measured move area where wave A (or wave W) equals wave C (or wave Y) from the lows. Target 3 is $157-$158. Target 3 is a confluence of levels including (i) the 1.272 extension of first leg of this rally projected from the start of the second leg, (ii) the .618 retracement of META's entire price range going back to the start of data on the chart, and (iii) the 200-day SMA based on today's date, which lies at $158. The bounce idea is invalidated if price falls below $112-$116. It may also be invalidated (depending on several factors) if price breaks below the pink uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows. Lastly, to quickly and effortlessly see the major support (supply zone) for the current corrective rally, see the blue rectangle below. Breaking this level should signal the next leg lower is underway in the primary-degree downtrend. Supplementary Chart E: Support / Supply Zone Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year! May your trades and risk-management work out very well this year. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:META
by SquishTrade
27
ETH May Reach $1826 after a Pullback to ConsolidatePrimary Chart: ETHUSD on a 2D Time Frame The Primary Chart shows ETH's major down trendlines over the past 14 months. The first down trendline (magenta) remains effective and has contained price since the all-time high in November 2021. The second down trendline (gold) has been broken. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high (teal) is currently at $2230. Fibonacci levels are also shown on the primary chart, as well as major support and resistance levels from the past few months. This is a short-term bullish idea. It's odd having a bullish idea in the crypto space—but this idea is very short-term. Despite recent progress, much more structural change is needed before bulls can call victory with a new primary degree uptrend. Bear markets commonly see multi-week and multi-month corrective rallies. SquishTrade is *not* calling a new bull market / long-term uptrend in ETH. To the contrary, this is just a corrective rally until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise. Down trendlines can break and be readjusted without a new uptrend being established, and inversely, up trendlines can break and be readjusted without a new downtrend being created. In any event, long-term buy and "hodlers" should be careful here and use stops consistent with prudent / professional trading principles. If the time horizon is extremely long (forever) because you believe no other technology could ever possibly render ETH obsolete, then maybe you have inside information that does not require any caution whatsoever. The key technical points are summarized below: The logarithmic down trendline remains intact currently. BTC's equivalent down trendline (on a log chart from all-time highs) has been broken, and it remains to see if that break will hold. It might hold for some time as the shape and structure of the downtrend is reestablished. The best the bulls can achieve, however, is a sideways to neutral trend for some time. Major bear markets do not typically reverse in a V-shaped fashion. Price is currently contending with a key Fibonacci level, the .618 retracement of the mid-August 2022 to November 2022 decline. This level lies at $1664.82. Price could push a little higher from here if it wants to extend a bit more. The move in BTC and ETH has been nothing short of explosive, typical in bear markets, likely fueled by shorts covering and a lot of upside hedging and FOMO. But in all likelihood, a consolidation / pullback is in the cards soon. See the RSI divergence (bearish) on Supplementary Chart A that has now arisen on daily charts. Divergences also appear in momentum on the 8-hour and 4-hour charts using RSI and other indicators, including the Bollinger Bands. Supplementary Chart A Because the November 3, 2022, high was broken, this sets up a shorter-term bullish structure potentially. The key word here is shorter-term. Again, this is not a call for a new bull market. But traders can try to capture upside moves with tight stops at logical supports. Right now, price is extended. Don't recommend chasing unless you really know what you're doing! If the down trendline (magenta) is broken, the measured move target is the more aggressive target for this move. That target lies at $2473. This target is not worth discussing, and not viable, unless and until the down TL from the all-time high is convincingly broken. Thank you for reading this post. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by SquishTrade
11
BTC May Push Higher Before Lower AgainBTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has traded in a choppy fashion for some time. Since mid-June 2022, it has traded modestly downward (downward and sideways) relative to the steep downtrend it experienced from the November 2021 all-time high to the June 2022 lows. This author has refrained from posting on crypto for a while given the choppy and uncertain nature of the space. Supplementary Chart A: BTC's Weekly Chart with Yellow Box Showing Choppy, Sideways to Modestly Downward Price Action for the Last Half Year But BTC looks to be pushing back to downtrend resistance. This will be a make-or-break time for BTC if the downtrend resistance can be reached. Bears will want to short, and intelligent bears will want to define their risk at the downtrend resistance levels—either the downtrend line, a key Fibonacci cluster, or the prior swing high (where the bluish-teal rectangle is placed on the Primary Chart). BTC's downtrend remains intact on a log chart. The burden is on the bulls to break that downtrend structure, convert it to a sideways or neutral trend, that may base for some time, and then refashion the structure in to a series of higher lows and higher highs (an uptrend) BTC may reach the following levels, which will not be considered "corrective-rally targets" given that the downtrend seems ready to resume at any time. So perhaps consider these as levels to watch: (1) $19,183.29, which is the .618 retracement of the most recent leg of decline, to $19,339.19, which is the measured-move area (a 1.00 Fib projection of the first leg of the bounce from the start of the second leg) and $19,500, which is the 200-day SMA (magenta); (2) $20,190 to $20,262, which zone includes the .786 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.272 projection of first wave off the November 2022 lows (projected from the start of the second wave); and (3) $21,300 to $21,478, which zone lies at the prior swing high and the downtrend line resistance. To determine whether this post is successful, price must fail at one of the levels presented above, and resume the downtrend with a leg lower that breaks the uptrend line from November 21, 2022. This outcome will serve as the standard / criterion for evaluating this idea later on. Of course, the price paths shown on the primary chart are hypothetical only, no one knows exactly which path price will take. Regardless of one's view (bullish or bearish or neutral) the simple uptrend line from November 21, 2022, lows guides this corrective bounce. When that is broken, expect impulsive movement lower again. No one knows with certainty whether the bear market is over in crypto and equities. Traders and chart watchers can simply make their best guess based on the probabilities presented by the patterns and technical analysis. Markets will sometimes violate the patterns and move in a manner that confounds the indicators. That is why risk management is so vitally important for traders. Thank you for reading, and Happy New Year / Feliz Año Nuevo! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
26
SPY Uncertainty High as Trends CollidePrimary Chart: S&P 500 (SPX) as represented by SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 1. SPX and Recession A recession is exceedingly likely in the near future. It could officially begin next month or in 4 months. But does that mean bears should be rewarded by a straight-line decline to new lows? Sadly not. Unfortunately for market participants, the S&P 500 S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY ) has confounded bulls and bears alike in recent months. Since June 2022 lows, SPX has traded substantially within the 3800-4000 range (380-400 SPY). After last year's lows on October 13, 2022, SPX rallied hard into mid-December 2022, only to be rejected at its down TL from its all-time highs. Down trendlines are one way of gauging a trend, especially the more times that price touches the trendline and reverses, showing it is a valid and effective dynamic boundary for market prices. When price was rejected from the mid-December 2022 highs (on December 13, the date of that month's FOMC presser), it fell rapidly into the 3800 SPX / 380 SPY range. Then it spent over two weeks within that range doing price discovery before breaking out and retesting the downward trendline (from all-time highs) this week. Many bulls called for 4100 SPX / 410 SPY saying the lows are in. Bears furiously covered shorts. Then bears were rewarded late this week as bad macro data started to be respected by the markets. But will bears continue to be rewarded? Just because a recession looms does not mean prices must go straight to new lows. Yes, they might, and they could very well do so, especially with the Fed not backing off much at all. But price could also find a reason to squeeze shorts one last time before heading to new lows. Be prepared for anything. 2. VIX Signals VIX told us earlier this week that the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY ) was in a precarious spot. A multi-year trendline on VIX lies just below where it closed Friday, January 13, 2023. This trendline provides major support at approximately 16.80 to 17.00 on VIX, and VIX closed at 18.34, its lowest level in a year (specifically, the lowest level since January 2022 when SPX had just finished making its all-time highs). However, VIX remains within a downtrend, subject to a trendline that has contained VIX levels since they made their most recent peak at mid-October 2022 lows. Until this downtrend is broken, clarity on the next trend leg in SPX will be difficult to find. In the VIX chart below, notice the yellow downward trendline containing VIX peaks more or less. And the pink line is the long-term upward TL that has provided long-term support. Some say TA cannot be applied to VIX. Strong opinions exist on both sides of this issue. Some of the best technical analysts serving institutions apply TA to VIX, and others do not. Supplementary Chart A.1 To those who are skeptical, SquishTrade would ask whether you would bet against the long-term upward TL each time VIX levels have reached it. In other words, would you sell vol when VIX fell to its very long-term uptrend line? Each time it has done so, it has moved back higher off that line. See Supplementary Chart A.2. Supplementary Chart A.2 3. SPX Triangle A triangle is a consolidation pattern. The Primary Chart above shows the current triangle that has formed. It is essentially a collision between a 3-month uptrend and a 13-month downtrend (lasting over a year since January 2022 highs). So long as price remains in this triangle, uncertainty about the intermediate term direction will likely remain high. Many triangles have arisen this year, and each one has led to new lows. This one may as well, as the yield curves and macro data support this outcome. But price could whipsaw out the top of the triangle for a month or two before heading to lows. All possibilities remain on the table. Expert Elliotticians have continued to change their wave counts as the year has progressed. This does not mean they are bad at their craft—it simply may point to the challenging nature of the price action. In the intermediate term, direction remains murky given the collision between these two uptrends. Ultimately new lows should be formed. But will a powerful rally rip higher to trap bears first? Will price action whipsaw around after a triangle breakout before figuring out a recession is coming and the Fed won't come to the rescue as quickly and spectacularly as in the past? These are the questions that many are trying to answer. This post contains no short-term directional bias—it's too close to call. So despite the powerful rally off October 2022 lows, and despite the powerful rally off late December 2022 lows, and the rapid decline this week, price remains stuck in a very large triangle on the daily chart. See Primary Chart. Notice how the edges of this triangle align in early February (right around the FOMC meeting) at key Fibonacci levels. See Supplementary Chart B.1 The smaller blue circles point to key pivot levels at 3800 SPX / 380 SPY and 4000 / 400 SPY. The larger blue circle shows the apex of the triangle and the (compressing) range it covers from 388 to 396 / 3890-3970 SPX, where price may remain for a bit longer. Supplementary Chart B.1 Here is an additional chart showing the Fibonacci levels a little more clearly. The key .618 retracement of the August-October 2022 decline lies at 399.79 SPY / 4000 SPX. Above that, a .786 retracement lies at 402.85 SPY. These now are both outside the downward trendline. If the downward trendline is adjusted for the whipsaws in mid-December 2022 (yellow downtrend line chart below), these key Fibonacci levels could be tagged within the "adjusted" down trendline. To the downside, notice how multiple Fibonacci levels come in right at 380 / 3800 SPX. This seems to be a line in the sand, also from a support perspective. When 3800 is decisively broken, watch out below for a new low. Supplementary Chart B.2 Note the 200-day SMA which has been widely discussed in financial media over the past week as it was tested yet again. This 200-day SMA is the magenta EMA in Supplementary Chart B.2. 4. Anchored VWAPs The anchored VWAPs—anchored to key swing highs and lows since June 2022—align quite well with the lower boundary of the consolidation triangle discussed, especially as more time passes and that lower boundary (an uptrend line from October 2022 lows) rises. See Supplementary Chart C.1. The VWAPs show a support range of 3870 to 3900 SPX / 836-388 SPY. If these are broken decisively, watch out for the upward trendline as it may break too. If these are held, as they have been so far this week, uncertainty remains high. Supplementary Chart C.1 VWAPs also show confluence with two key Fibonacci retracements, the .50 retracement and the .618 retracement of the recent rally from December 22, 2022 to January 17, 2023. Supplementary Chart C.2
AMEX:SPY
by SquishTrade
8
AMD's Strength Fades Quickly, New Lows AheadPrimary Chart: AMD's Downtrend from All-Time Highs (2D Time Frame), Fibonacci Retracements and Projections, Long-Term VWAPs AMD remains in a severe downtrend at the primary degree. AMD's price on its most recent rally off the October 13, 2022, low rallied right into trendline resistance and rejected lower. On a linear chart (primary chart above), price pushed through the trendline briefly, setting up a bull trap for those thinking the trend structure might have changed. But price fell back below quickly, a sign of exhaustion and a reinforcement of the very trendline that caused the exhaustion and reversal lower. Price also failed right at a key 50% retracement (green) of the August 3 to October 13 leg of decline. AMD broke below a key long-term Fibonacci level (.618 R) at 63. And it fell below its anchored VWAP from 2022 lows. Now price sits right at a critical multi-year VWAP anchored to 2018 lows (yellow). It looks likely to push below it in the coming days / weeks. Target 1 lies at prior October 2022 lows (actually, slightly above those prior lows) at $55. This is the most conservative target and mostly likely to be achieved. Target 2.A is $48-$49. Target 2.B is 47.20. Target 3 is $45, shown on Supplementary Chart 1 immediately below. (Each target is a condition precedent to the next lower target. Unless and until a prior target is hit and held on a close, the lower targets are not in effect.) Current Analysis AMD remains in a severe downtrend as past analyses have discussed. The history of some key 2022 analyses by SquishTrade is reiterated below in the "Past Analyses" section below. This may help give context to the current analysis. AMD rallied hard off the mid-October 2022 lows. This rally was mentioned when price was trading down into the mid-October 2022 low. See Supplementary Chart B below (discussing the likelihood of an extremely sharp bear bounce" from a multi-month support zone, and noting that the risk-reward at the time was poor for shorts. Price traded down into the key support zone of $54-$55, and then rallied powerfully into December 2022. The highs, however, in the $79-$80 range failed right at trendline resistance. On a linear chart (Primary Chart above), price pushed through the down trendline briefly, setting up a bull trap for those thinking the trend structure might have changed. But price fell back below quickly, a sign of exhaustion and a reinforcement of the very trendline that caused the exhaustion and reversal lower.It appears the downtrend at the primary degree has resumed, and even if sharp rallies occur again, as is typical of bear markets, new lows will likely be reached in 2023. In the process of declining after failing at resistance, AMD cut through a key Fibonacci level of $63. It also broke below a critical anchored VWAP from October 2022 lows. Price targets are identified in the summary section above. But note that two alternative projections both result in a price target around the $47-$48 range. Both these projections rely on a "measured move" and Fibonacci approach (linear chart). Both these projections are .618 projections of prior major legs of decline. And they end up right near the very long-term VWAP from 2015 (dark blue) which is at $48-$49. Lastly, note that the log chart shown in Supplementary Chart 1 has a key measured-move, 1.00 Fib projection at $45. Supplementary Chart 1 Past Analyses AMD's severe downtrend has been discussed in several recent posts in 2022. In May 2022, SquishTrade applied technical analysis to conclude that AMD, which then traded at $94.24, would see more downside in price in the coming weeks and months. A downside projection of $60-$63 was discussed in May 2022, and that was later achieved when price hit $63.34 in September 2022. See the May 2022 post here . Later, on October 6 2022, SquishTrade provided a more thorough discussion of the technical evidence supporting the continuation of the primary trend downward. See Supplementary Chart A below. Despite substantial rallies in tech stocks, including other chipmakers like NVDA, and large-cap tech stocks like AAPL, nothing has materially changed in the structure. In fact, even if more rallies lie ahead, AMD trend structure will take a lot of work to change. Supplementary Chart A When AMD reached a low in mid-October 2022, SquishTrade posted a warning that risk / reward for shorts was poor at the time. Supplementary Chart B. The post noted that AMD's price was near multi-month support and that "an extremely sharp bear bounce could occur at any time. Just look at the prior rallies . . . . Many of these bear rallies rise nearly vertically from the lower line of the channel (called the return line). This is typical of bear rallies. They tend to be some of the strongest rallies that happen in markets, and this bear market has been a fascinating learning experience (even if painful for longer-term investors) as these rallies and declines unfold." Supplementary Chart B But despite that major rally that was imminent, nothing had changed with regard to AMD's larger downtrend structure. That remains true now: AMD remains in a severe downtrend that has shown no evidence of structural change. Another post in October 2022 noted the possibility of the $55 zone of support being significant was also discussed. See Supplementary Chart C. That post, however, was mainly to provide a brief snapshot of AMD's price "at the secular level of trend," which is a multi-year view (longer than a primary trend view which tends to be 9 months to 2 years). The October 30, 2022, post stated: "It's clear that in the intermediate term, bulls need to hold AMD's price above $54-$55 or else the next major level to the downside comes into play." But SquishTrade noted that the level may be retested in the coming weeks to months. Supplementary Chart C The time is likely approaching for a retest of that $54-$55 level. The current viewpoint will be discussed below along with reasonable price targets for 2023
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by SquishTrade
8
Tactical Bounce for Tesla into Year End / New YearPrimary Chart: TSLA's Downtrend Shown by Parallel Channel, Anchored VWAP from Sept. 21, 2022, Key Support / Resistance Levels SUMMARY: TLSA remains in a steep downtrend at the primary degree of trend. The selling is not likely to be complete on longer time frames. A countertrend bounce may take TSLA's price up to the following targets: $155-158 (conservative) to $163-$166 (aggressive). Countertrend bounces can fail at any time, so the odds of this working out well are perhaps lower than the odds of a downward move from key resistance levels that is aligned with the longer-term trend. TSLA remains within a broader downtrend that has intensified over the past few months. TSLA had held up better than many other tech names and high growth names in 1H 2022. TSLA's drawdown in the first half of the year was about -50% while many tech / high growth stocks declined -70% to -90%. For comparative examples, PLTR has fallen -86.22% from its all time high, SQ has fallen -82% from its all time high, BYND has fallen -95.1% from its all-time high, and UPST has fallen -96.45% from its all-time high. TSLA so far has fallen about -65.8% from its all-time high. For many of these high-growth and technology names, including TSLA, the selling doesn't look complete. Just as corrective pullbacks occur in an uptrend, corrective bounces occur in downtrends. TSLA has reached the lower edge of its parallel channel and looks ripe for a countertrend rally. Add bullish year-end seasonality into the mix, and TSA may see chop at a minimum, or a modest rally. The term "modest" here means small relative to its sharp downtrend since mid-September 2022 and its all-time high of $414.50. In percentage terms, the corrective rally may be considered sharp from the perspective of any shorts that may have had the misfortune of entering their positions at the lower edge of the channel. The Primary Chart shows the steepness of the downtrend since mid-September 2022, although the stock has been in a downward correction since its ATH in November 2021. The VWAP fro mid-September 2022 also shows the ferocity of the selling given how its slope falls rapidly over the past 3 months, hovering not far above the downtrend line. Bears have been pleased with this progress. But even bears must be cautious this year regardless of how weak the stock may be. The conservative target is $155-$158. The aggressive target is $163-166. These levels are derived from both Fibonacci analysis and resistance levels from key price points shown on the Primary Chart. Some additional charts supporting this thesis appear below: Supplementary Chart A Supplementary Chart B Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D For the longer-term perspective, please see the following post dated November 8, 2022: ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
51
SPX Downtrend Intact But Short-Term Relief Rally LikelyPrimary Chart: Primary Down Trendline, Fibonacci Levels, Two Key Anchored VWAPs SUMMARY SPX's downtrend in 2022 was never invalidated. It remains effective at the start of 2023. Downward forward earnings revisions combined with a challenging macro environment (recession along with tight central bank policies in the US, UK and EU and elsewhere) will continue to pressure prices lower in the intermediate term and perhaps even the longer term until central banks begin to pivot away from restrictive policies. Falling money supply (the result of central bank policies) should also continue to be a headwind. Although the downtrend remains intact and likely to continue, a relief bounce looks likely in the short term. The Bollinger Bands (%B) provides a short-term positive signal. And price action closed with strength on Friday, December 30, 2022. One caveat is that many strong closes in this downtrend have been followed by sudden and unexpected downdrafts. Caution is warranted. The first target is 3864-3870 SPX. The second target, which will only be valid and effective if the first target is captured and held on a close, is $3887-3893 (3900). The third target is 3916-3932. The final target is 3972, where a gap fill area coincides with the .618 retracement of the decline from mid-December 2022 peaks. AAPL's reclaiming of a key level, after an extremely bearish final quarter of the year, supports a short-term relief bounce. The S&P 500 SP:SPX saw a sustained downtrend in 2022, which started on January 4, 2022 and continued into year end. This downtrend remains in effect and intact going into 2023. The macro environment continues to be problematic, though inflation does appear to have peaked at least in the US. Regardless of whether inflation has peaked, the most important question remains whether inflation will continue its decline to the Federal Reserve's 2% target or whether sticky components will interfere. Meanwhile, corporate earnings appear to be falling whilst central banks (especially in the US and EU) remain committed to keeping monetary policy tight. In mid-December 2022, recall that Christine Lagarde, ECB President, said definitively that the ECB is not pivoting, not backing down in maintaining its tighter policy. Many more hikes lay in store, especially given that the ECB remains behind the US to some extent. The US is already at a Fed Funds target rate of 4.25% to 4.50% while the ECB's target rate remains around 2%. Continued tight policy in the US and abroad should likely cause forward earnings to continue to decline. The focus may likely shift from inflation toward growth / recessionary concerns. Inflation will still be a major issue, however, and sticky inflationary components may support central banks remaining tight for longer than expected, which in turn will influence growth / recessionary concerns. So downward earnings revisions / recession may be the catalyst for equity markets to see further downside in 2023. Interest rates remaining higher for longer may be the reason for a lower SPX multiple. Some financial experts have stated that markets tend to bottom when SPX's PE is around a 13-15 multiple. SPX is currently around 17-18x SPX forward earnings of about $230 (approximate figures used given that SquishTrade does not focus on fundamentals but technicals). In the very short term, however, markets appear primed for a countertrend bounce. Markets spent the final trading days of the year chopping around the 3800 SPX level, where a massive JPMorgan hedging position (an options collar) had a short call strike just above this level (3835) with about 45,000 contracts on SPX (each with a multiplier of 100). That collar's expiry was December 30, 2022. So it has now expired and should no longer pin markets around this level, though a new one has been or will soon be established via a roll or outright (this is a quarterly phenomenon). Key price movements on December 30, 2022, as well as other technical evidence, supports a countertrend bounce. But substantial resistance lies overhead. VWAPs, Fibonacci levels, and overhead supply zones all will make it more difficult for price to rise in an unfettered manner into the new year. However, a series of potential targets will be identified below. Each subsequent target, as usual, depends on the prior target being captured and held on a close. Furthermore, the reasoning for why a bounce may be imminent will be discussed through charts and technical analysis below. Note that just because a bounce may occur does not mean it is time to load the boat long: countertrend bounces can fail at any time, being swept away by the larger degree tide of a primary downtrend. Such bounces require traders who participate to be nimble and flexible, and they only work when traders manage risk extremely well. The alternative for traders is to stand aside and wait until the short-term trend re-aligns with the longer-term trend. SquishTrade has found that standing aside often works better than trying to trade every countertrend move followed by trades where trends on all time frames align. Traders may find that it helps to free up both mental and financial capital to prepare for the bigger, better moves where trends align on multiple time frames. The supplementary charts and analyses below support the main technical viewpoints discussed. 1. The primary downtrend remains intact and is likely to continue. It can resume at any time, and it seems likely that it will lead to new lows in 2023. But it's better to take price action level to level rather than blindly assuming new lows are destined to occur. Supplementary Chart A 2. A short-term relief bounce appears likely, however, that may give shorts an opportunity to establish bearish positions in anticipation that the decline will resume. Consider the W bottom appearing on the Bollinger Bands, as evidenced by the %B indicator, which reflects this pattern well. Supplementary Chart B.1 Consider the way price closed on December 30, 2022, the final trading day of 2022. Price fell dramatically from December 12-13, 2022, after the FOMC meeting that week. But price stopped falling right around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (shown below) near 3800 (3796), which is the 50% retracement of the entire rally from the mid-October 2022 lows to the mid-December 2022 peaks. Then, after chopping in a range for nearly two weeks (9 trading sessions), SPX pushed back above it's short-term VWAP in the final minutes of trading on December 30, 2022 and back above a key short-term EMA. Of course, this could all change on January 3, 2022, and the chop could continue the way it has for the past two weeks. But daily and weekly closes can be important. Supplementary Chart B.2 3. AAPL's price action, while bearish, suggests a *short-term* relief bounce as well. AAPL, the most heavily weighted stock in the SPX and the NDX, saw very bearish price action in December 2022. It not only undercut prior lows from October and November 2022, it also finally undercut its June 2022 low at $129.04. And it made new lows around $125.87. Consider the yellow circle for a moment—notice how AAPL undercut its 2020 Covid-low VWAP (pink) as well as the June 2022 low support area only to reclaim this key zone the next two days. This recapture of a key level, this failed breakdown, suggests at least some limited further upside. Watch out for the major resistance areas above, however! And the new lows on daily and weekly charts (under June lows) do not suggest AAPL is about to resume a new uptrend back to all-time highs. Rather, they suggest further downside ahead. Supplementary Chart C 4. A variety of anchored VWAPs from major swing highs and lows from 2022 suggest that the downtrend remains intact into 2023 but that a relief bounce could occur in the coming weeks. Notice how the VWAPs all lie overhead in a bearish position. But the slope for the June, August, October and December VWAPs has moderated a bit, flattening out and suggesting that price may rise to test them soon. Even if price breaks above them temporarily, watch for a breakout above them that ultimately fails. Supplementary Chart D 5. A series of plausible price targets for a relief bounce is presented. Remember that SquishTrade presents targets as conditions precedent to each other. So Target 2 will not be viable or valid unless and until Target 1 is captured and held on at least an hourly (preferably daily) close. Supplementary Chart E Thanks for reading. Happy New Year! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
27
Has the Downtrend in AVAX Resumed?Primary Chart: AVAX's rally from August 29, 2022, to September 12, 2022 Appears Corrective It appears that the downtrend in AVAX's price has resumed. But one need not speculate based solely on the recent days of selling. Price charts for AVAX have left plenty of evidence to show where price may go next. First, it's important to define the overall trend. The most basic way to do so is by looking at the major highs and lows on a higher time frame, like a daily or weekly chart. Then, evaluate whether the price has formed higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. Below is a daily chart, where anyone can see that a series of lower highs and lower lows has appeared since November 2021. Supplementary Chart A: Defining AVAX's Trend Furthermore, the downtrend channel—with its trendline across the major swing highs since November 2021—leaves little doubt that price has remained in a downtrend. The return line (the lower line of this parallel channel) also helps visualize the downtrend. The 21-day EMA is also a helpful trend gauge. For the majority of the distance that the 21-day EMA has printed on this chart, the slope has been negative and this EMA has made downward progress. Yes, a few upward segments appear, but they are a smaller proportion of the overall line. Next, an anchored VWAP can help see where price is relative to where it has been over the summer. The VWAP in the chart below is anchored to the lows of June 2022. Note how price action has been very choppy over the summer, much like the price action in major equity indices like the S&P 500 SP:SPX and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX . Price broke above this anchored VWAP at least four times, and some of the rallies were sharp and powerful as bear rallies can be. Supplementary Chart B: Anchored VWAP with Several Failed Breakouts The fact that price has broken above the anchored VWAP at least four times and failed back below it each time supports the notion that this summer's upward price move was a countertrend bear rally. The last breakout attempt over the anchored VWAP in early September was by far the weakest, suggesting that buying pressure is waning and that the downward trend is likely to begin again in earnest in the short-term. One need not have an infallible Elliott Wave (EW) count to analyze the price action and draw useful inferences with EW concepts. The chart below defines the two essential types of waves under Elliott Wave theory. These basic definitions may be applied to the downtrend since November 2021. The result supports the same conclusion reached using other methods of technical analysis discussed above—that price is trending down with upward rallies being countertrend and corrective in nature. Supplementary Chart C.1: Elliott Wave Analysis for Entire Downtrend Even the price action since the June 2022 low can be examined under EW principles for helpful inferences as to whether the downtrend has resumed. Since even the best EW analysts can disagree about precise counts, a more useful approach to EW can be to evaluate motive and corrective price action by its basic characteristics, as shown in the chart immediately below. Supplementary Chart C.2: Elliott Wave Analysis for June-September 2022 Price Action And AVAX's price action for the rally of the past several weeks can also be analyzed using EW concepts. The Primary Chart above shows how the two legs of the rally are nearly equal. They have a common proportion of 1.272, a Fibonacci relationship common in corrective patterns known as zigzags, and also a common corrective pattern known as a complex W-X-Y correction. (For the non-EW readers, it helps to know that an EW corrective pattern constitute an upward price move in a downtrend as well as a downward price move in an uptrend.) Because the legs of the rally fall into a 3-wave pattern in which wave A = 1.272 x wave C, a Fibonacci relationship that is near equality, one can conclude that the entire summer rally was a corrective and countertrend move. From this premise, one also may infer that the trend, when it resumes, will continue downward. Lastly, AVAX has lost all its major retracement levels from this summer's rally. Importantly, it has lost its .618 and .786 retracements. If one were to question whether the summer rally was the start of a new uptrend, one would want to see the .618 and .786 retracements hold as support before price turned higher again. These retracements typically hold as support when price retraces only a portion of an uptrend move. But they have failed as support as shown below, which suggests the downtrend is likely resuming as of last weeks price decline. Of course, the .786 retracement at $17.39 could easily be retested and even broken briefly similar to the way the .618 retracement was in previous days this month. Supplementary Chart D: Fibonacci Analysis as to Summer 2022 Rally
COINBASE:AVAXUSDShort
by SquishTrade
9
NVDA Fails at Channel Resistance after Largest Bear Rally YTDPrimary Chart: NVDA's Primary Downtrend Since November 2021 Represented by Parallel Channel and Anchored VWAP from ATH Summary: NVDA has been in a downtrend since its all-time high on November 22, 2022. NVDA broke above its down TL on a linear chart briefly in whipsaw move (bull trap) on December 13, 2022. It failed decisively back below. This failure at the down TL shows that the downtrend has further to go, and that the TL remains effective as price exhausted almost immediately after breaking above it. NVDA did not take out its prior major high from August 4, 2022, at $192.74. The intraday high from this bear rally was $187.90. Short-term targets derived from Fibonacci levels and VWAPs include $157 to $160 (conservative) , and $147-$150 , and $133-$138 (aggressive) . The lower targets depend on the higher targets being reached and broken first, as usual. And all of the targets depend on a break of the March 2020 VWAP (pink) around $165. That level must break before any other targets can be viable. 1. NVDA has been in a downtrend since November 22, 2021, over one year ago. The rallies in the one-year downtrend have been impressive. Each time, market participants have bought dips heavily and pushed rallies fiercely upward with help from short-covering players and dealer-hedging unwinds in derivatives markets. 2. Below is a chart showing the bear rallies, each of which has been contained by the downtrend. Each rally represents years worth of gains in calmer up-trending markets excluding the powerful post-2020 bull fueled by easy central bank policy that fostered excessive liquidity in financial markets. Supplementary Chart A: Percentage Gains for Each Bear Rally Contained by the Downtrend in NVDA The most recent rally is plainly the largest in percentage terms. It has run about 73.7% higher from the October 2022 low. 3. In early November, SquishTrade posted about the powerful rally and hypothesized that it might run to $150. That prior post is linked here . NVDA ran to $150 and much further to $187.90. But ST cautioned that the rally should be respected, explaining as follows: "And that rally should continue to be respected until it's confirmed to be complete. A good way to gauge the rally off the lows is to use an upward trendline—here a parallel channel is used, and the lower boundary of the channel is the upward trendline off the lows." In other words, until the shorter-term uptrend off the lows was broken, the rally should be accepted. Fighting bear rallies (just like fighting any other market move) is futile. NVDA's uptrend was in fact violated with several whipsaw moves that were bear traps. After adjusting the line for the bear traps, the uptrend line was violated again December 6-7, 2022 with a major whipsaw move (see the false breakdown December 6-7, 2022, below the blue uptrend line from October 2022 lows, shown on the Primary Chart). 4. In short, this bear market has been exceedingly difficult to trade with outsized moves in short periods of time. But on December 13, 2022, it seemed NVDA would break above its down TL from the all-time high and change its downtrend structure. On Tuesday this week, NVDA rose to an intraday high of $187.90, coming close to breaking above the previous major high at $192.74 made on August 4, 2022. But NVDA's price reversed right on cue. It topped and reversed just below that August 4, 2022 high. NVDA's price has now fallen back below the down TL on a linear chart (shown on the Primary Chart). Note that NVDA has remained well below its down TL on a log chart, as shown below: Supplementary Chart B: NVDA's Logarithmic Chart with a Down TL from the All-Time High in November 2021 5. Given how tricky this market has been, it seems prudent not to jump to any major conclusions about whether the low may be in for NVDA. Instead, it's better to watch the nature of the pullback first. SquishTrade keeps in mind that semiconductors tend to lead the broader equity markets, so keep in mind that NVDA may have made its final low, as counterintuitive as that may seem. That's not SquishTrade's official view, it's just a reminder to stay open and flexible. Take it one step at a time, level to level. For now, it seems a downward move has begun. Will it be corrective or impulsive? Let's wait and see. 6. A while back ST published the following chart showing a possible longer-term target in the $83 area (lets say $80-$85) or perhaps higher depending on where the uptrend line is tagged. This target still seems to be a higher probability area where price could fall in the longer term. That chart will be reposted below (note it is dated late September 2022, but it's still valid now). It's difficult to say when earnings will start deteriorating in earnest due to the coming recession. No one can predict exactly when the recession will hit. Perhaps markets are telling us it's just around the corner. But we have to remain open to all possibilities . However improbable it may be after the hawkish Fed presser this week, one cannot rule out a run up to challenge $200 or even (gasp) $258 (gap fill in early April 2022) before new lows are made. To be clear, this is not SquishTrade's forecast, but it's being discussed as an example of a price path that could confound traders and eventually lead to new lows while convincing many market participants that the October 2022 lows are final. Wouldn't that be painful and confusing and devious—and consistent with the maximum theory of pain in markets? Supplementary Chart C: Long-Term Trendlines Showing Long-Term Target around $83 7. Shorter-term price targets include $157 to $160 (conservative), and $147-$150, and $133-$138 (aggressive). 8. Note that in addition to Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud charts were consulted, and the $150 level serves as weekly support on an Ichimoku Cloud chart (Kijun line for those familiar with those charts). The $140 level is important on daily charts into January 2023. Supplementary Chart D: Ichimoku Cloud Charts (Weekly and Daily) with Yellow Circles Highlighting Key Supports 9. Remember, this is not a so-called trade "signal" or trade entry. SquishTrade prefers to analyze and describe the broader price environment using technical analysis but leave trading decisions, entries and exits up to each trader and investor's discretion. Traders and investors all have different time frames, rules, risk tolerances, and strategies. So trade according to your own rules, time frame, strategies and risk tolerance. Perhaps this technical analysis may help a trader look a little more carefully for a swing short setup in the coming days or weeks on a bounce to resistance. Perhaps it helps an investor hold off on committing long-term capital until the downtrend structure is negated. In short, this is a technical analysis and overview, not a trading service! Thank you for reading. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for your interest in this technical analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SquishTrade
11
Will AMZN's Primary Downtrend Break Its Secular Uptrend?Primary Chart: Primary Down Trendline from 2021, Secular Up Trendline from 1997, Long-Term Up TL from 2008 GFC Low, and Fibonacci Retracements from Covid 2020 Low Summary: 1. This post provides a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's day-to-day price action takes place. 2. AMZN remains within a primary downtrend (see the parallel channel from the all-time highs). But it remains within a secular uptrend, and has tagged and remains near the secular up trendline from 1997. Such long-term trendlines could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from the bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination. 3. Being within a primary downtrend but nearing a secular uptrend makes trades more tricky perhaps as the uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 up trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well. 4. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). 5. A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. 6. In the very short-term, it appears that a bounce is imminent, and this bounce may be sold before it reaches the most recent swing high. But this will be covered in a separate post to be published soon. The Primary Chart shows AMZN's downtrend at the primary degree of trend. This is represented by a parallel channel on a logarithmic chart. A parallel channel on this weekly chart comprises both a down trendline across the material highs and a return line across the material lows. This downtrend broke below the upward TL from the 2008 GFC low. That TL was retested several times after it was broken. Major long-term support and resistance levels are not broken easily, and often require more than one attempt. As the price action around this 2008 trendline illustrates, price may often retest or whipsaw around longer-term trendlines or longer-term levels. In any event, this chart helps to keep AMZN trading in context. In the event a bearish flush takes place, check out the long-term secular uptrend line from 1997. Below is a broader view (zoomed out) of both the 2008 and the 1997 trendlines, combined with the current one-year down trendline from all-time highs: Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of AMZN's Long-Term Trendlines Such long-term trendlines as the 1997 up trendline could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from a bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination. In short, AMZN is trading within a primary downtrend but also nearing a secular uptrend, and this makes trading, investing and forecasting more tricky as the secular uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 secular upward trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. RSI on a daily chart shows that lower prices should be expected. Consider that momentum has remained in a downtrend as well for a while: Supplementary Chart B: AMZN's RSI (Daily) in a Downtrend Price could pause at the secular uptrend line, break below and whipsaw back above, or do a series of whipsaws above and below before choosing a direction. A good example of how price can whipsaw above and below a long-term trendline is seen on Apple's chart here . Over the past several weeks, AAPL has whipsawed above and below the line about seven times. That doesn't have to happen every time, but it should not be expected that price will slice through such key trendlines (assuming correctly drawn) like a hot knife through butter with no hesitation and no looking back. In any case, the main argument here is that the primary downtrend must continue to be respected, especially when AMZN remains below the .618 and .50 Fibonacci retracements of its rally from December 2018 lows to November 2021 highs. The .618 retracement lies at $97.98, and the .50 retracement lies at $111.03. So the intermediate term forecast (2-4 months) is for price to continue trending lower to about the March 2020 pandemic lows and perhaps to the Fibonacci 1.00 projection area at $78, acknowledging that this move will not be in a straight line and that downtrends include highs—albeit lower ones at the degree of trend where the downtrend exists. But the secular uptrend from 1997 should be carefully watched. Shorts at this level are higher risk than shorts taken above the level, depending on the trading time frame. This post is not exactly a trade idea, although it does forecast lower prices with some targets over the coming weeks and months. Rather, it attempts to provide a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's daily price action occurs. It's not quite as straightforward as the primary downtrend (yellow parallel channel) might suggest. In any event, seeing the longer-term view may help those who may approach AMZN with both short-term and long-term trading and investing plans. Within the next few days, another short-term post will accompany this one with a short-term outlook (several days to a couple weeks). ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by SquishTrade
13
SPX Breakout Fails, Bearish 1H 2023, PT $3810Primary Chart: SPX Long-Term TL and Anchored VWAPs, Fibonacci SUMMARY: SPX experienced a failed breakout above the downward TL. See the Primary Chart above. This suggests weakness ahead, but price may remain choppy throughout December. Price failed right at key levels including the VWAP anchored to the all-time high on January 4, 2022, a downward trendline that has been effective YTD, and a key Fibonacci level. Price targets will be initially set as follows: $3820 (conservative) and $3600-$3700 (aggressive). Because December tends to experience some bullish seasonality, this may affect prices by causing choppiness, preventing prices from going straight to new lows until 1H 2023. Bullish seasonality may not be enough, however, to result in a so-called "Santa Rally." S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) broke above its downward trendline (TL) today. Price initially gapped higher by approximately 2.78% from yesterday's close. At first, it may have appeared that the breakout above the downward TL would be meaningful. But the breakout has largely failed. Failed breakouts provide a somewhat bearish signal. However, in this choppy and unpredictable current market this year, a series of failed breakouts both to the upside and downside frequently preceded the actual directional move in many indices, stocks and other instruments. Whether SPX's down TL continues to hold as resistance and to contain price below it will remain of utmost importance in the coming weeks. Tomorrow, the US central bank will hold its press conference after a two-day meeting that started today, December 13, 2022. Similar to the CPI data release today, the FOMC presser tomorrow may cause excessive volatility and whipsaws like other FOMC days this year. Additional central banks in Europe (ECB, BOE, Norway, Switzerland) will be holding their meetings later this week as well. Some traders may be wondering about a so-called Santa rally. Citi's quant strategists were quoted the other day claiming that "the Santa rally has not delivered when the returns of the first 10 months of the year are negative." Other statistics suggest that Santa rallies are less likely (though still sometimes occur) during bear-market years. Other recent charts shared publicly have also shown that bear markets show lower probabilities of a Santa rally. This does not mean the Santa rally will not occur, it just means that the odds are lower. Much will depend on what Fed Chair Powell says tomorrow and what the dot plot shows. In any event, price action in SPX today was weak. A failed breakout does not inspire confidence that a new uptrend is forming. While price can do all sorts of unexpected things as it has all year long, it suggests more downside ahead despite better than expected inflation readings today. Price may still reach $4150 before the next downward move gets underway. The performance of technology today supports the bearish case in SPX (and NDX). Technology is the largest weighting in both major US indices. But this sector also showed a failed breakout when considering the sector on an equal-weighted basis. US markets are unlikely to rally back to all-time highs when technology cannot change its downtrend structure. Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakout in Equal-Weighted Technology Sector Negative divergence has arisen on the daily SPX charts with an RSI indicator for momentum readings. This should be monitored in days to come if a higher high than today's high is made. A higher high could negate the divergence, but a marginal new high (up to SPX 4120-4150) may not erase the divergence. Supplementary Chart B: RSI Negative Divergence Lastly, while some debate exists whether VIX may be subject to technical analysis, it can be helpful to pay attention to the trends and levels in the VIX at least. Today, VIX also showed a failed breakout to the downside below the range over the past week. In other words, VIX broke below the key trading range of 22.06 - 23.28 as markets ripped higher this morning. But interestingly, that breakdown ended up failing with price recovering back into the range. Supplementary Chart C: VIX Intraday Chart with Failed Breakout and Failed Breakdown from Multi-Day Trading Range ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SP:SPXShort
by SquishTrade
29
AAPL Falling Back to Lower Edge of Trading Range, PT $128-$134Primary Chart: AAPL's Parallel Channel and Key Trendlines with Fibonacci Retracements from November 4 Swing Low to November 15 Swing High SUMMARY: AAPL appears to have begun a leg lower in earnest, along with SPX. A break below $140.35 will help confirm. SPX broke below its recent swing low on November 29, 2022, which is consistent with AAPL's failure at its trendline and push lower after this rejection. The short-term PT zone = $128-$134 range. Whether AAPL and SPX are heading to new lows yet is unclear. So let's take this one level at a time. December 2022 could be choppy with many market participants buying dips hoping for a Santa Rally. It may be tough sledding—or it may be straight to new lows. Does anyone have a crystal ball? AAPL appears to have begun a leg lower in earnest. The most that can be said in the short term is that AAPL is heading back to the lower edge of its trading range. SquishTrade suspects that will be broken in the intermediate-term future, but until it is broken, the lower edge of the trading range at $128-$134 will be the target. A much more detailed technical analysis of AAPL was posted on November 5, 2022 , linked below in Supplementary Chart A (November 5 analysis). In summary, the longer-term view for AAPL remains negative. Several downside PTs are listed in the November 5 analysis—please refer to it for further reading on the broader picture in AAPL. Supplementary Chart A (Prior November 5 Analysis of AAPL) The shorter-term case for downside is supported by several factors. First, price was resoundingly rejected (on a log chart) at the downward TL (yellow) from mid-August 2022 swing highs. See Supplementary Chart B. Price has also broken through a few key short-term Fibonacci levels shown in Supplementary Chart B. Supplementary Chart B: In addition, please notice on Supplementary Chart B another technical phenomenon. Price formed a Pinocchio bar, which SquishTrade has discussed in past technical analyses. Sometimes these work well. Basically, a long upper or lower wick pierces a key level or trendline, which represents a false move. For a more detailed discussion of a Pinocchio bar, or a false break / whipsaw move, please read SquishTrade's prior posts on this subject here and here . Both prior Pinocchio bars worked exactly as expected. But this does not mean that all Pinocchio bars will represent exhaustion. So far, AAPL's Pinocchio bar above the yellow TL from mid-August 2022 highs has been working. But AAPL has remained very choppy this year, which is part of the reason why SquishTrade does not want to commit yet to the view that a much larger downside leg is underway right now . That leg may be coming next year, however, or it may have started already. It's still unclear. For the time being, it helps to take this one level at a time. Technicals point to further weakness and downside ahead, and the best PT SquishTrade sees at this time is $128-$134 PT. And this PT range represents prior lows from October and November 2022 ($134 area) as well as the lower edge of the parallel channel ($128-$129). Second, price retraced to the .786 retracement of its recent downward swing from November 15-29, 2022. But price failed at that key retracement. See Supplementary Chart C below: Supplementary Chart C: Third, refer back to the Primary Chart above. The gap fill area lies around $138-$140. The .786 retracement also lies near this level (the .786 retracement of the Nov. 4-15 rally—price has traded within the range of this rally for over two weeks, which is why that remains important). In any case, this $138-$140 area presents short-term supports, i.e., obstacles (or conditions precedent) to AAPL reaching the $128-$134 PT above. AAPL could bounce at this $138-$140 area perhaps, so evaluate the bounce and consider whether that may be weak enough to return and break through this area when the bounce completes. As always, trade in accordance with a set of rules and your overall trading system, with risk management being the most important part. SquishTrade attempts to provide technical analyses that present a perspective on the price action in indices and various securities but does not purport to provide actual trading signals. Some may prefer to wait, for example, for a bounce (if one occurs) before entering any shorts. Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think too. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SquishTrade
10
SPX's Bear Rally May Tag Resistance Zone at 4100-4143Primary Chart: Down Trendline and Anchored VWAP from All-Time Highs, Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions Summary of Key Points: 1. SPX remains in a countertrend rally (an uptrend on shorter time frames) from the October 13, 2022 lows. See the parallel channel on the Primary Chart. The post-FOMC selloff found support right at the base of this channel. 2. A pullback and consolidation should be expected, though it's not necessarily a given. Though prices moved in almost a straight line late last week, that is not the norm and even with that nearly straight line, prices never move in a straight line on higher time frames. If a pullback / consolidation occurs, it would be in the blue box area shown on the Primary Chart. 3. SquishTrade will only consider targets above 4000 if SPX can successfully reclaim 4000 with a daily close above, i.e., 4000 works as as a condition precedent to 4100-4143. 4. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. 5. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun. SPX's bear rally may continue higher, with pullbacks / consolidations of course, to reach 4100-4143. Why is it still being called a bear rally? Some may wonder whether the lows are in after last week's powerful rally on incredibly strong breadth on November 10, 2022, with follow through on Friday, November 11, 2022. Social media is filled with calls for markets to move back to all-time highs given markets uncanny ability to "sniff out" the final stages of inflation and a return to normalcy with a Fed pivot not long afterwards. Sound too good to be true? Maybe it is. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. The probabilities suggest the market heads lower at some point once the extreme emotions surrounding the "relief rally" (likely fueled by a nice mix of FOMO, algos and short-covering) have faded and price exhausts to the upside. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun. SquishTrade's analysis suggests the bear rally should continue at least another week, perhaps two. Sure, a pullback is likely after the run up last week to consolidate those excessive gains, but the countertrend rally is likely to continue. Please interpret this analysis correctly—SquishTrade is labeling this a countertrend rally until the larger trend structure is definitively broken. SquishTrade is not long-term bullish or calling for a new uptrend at the primary degree. Comments asking why the view has flipped are misplaced: the long-term and even intermediate-term view has not flipped as every downtrend by definition includes both highs and lows in an ebb and flow progressing downward over time. At this stage, the downtrend at the primary degree remains intact. Note the downward trendline in dark blue from the all-time highs. Note the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs in January 2022. These represent actual price data, not opinions. The structure remains down at the primary degree no matter what macro chatter is out there. Tom Lee, a sort of permabull who correctly called the 2-year rally to SPX 4800 off the Covid lows is still calling for SPX 5100 by year end, and thinks that this rally leg can reach 4400. Other macro and technical analysts have said the lows are in and SPX is rallying having sensed the final stages of inflation. Of course, for every bull, there is an equally persuasive bear. SquishTrade believes all that information is contained in the technicals, so why argue the data when it may not matter in the end? Markets will do whatever they want. If markets break the downtrend, then the bulls are right. If they continue the downtrend, the bears are right. Squish remains a bear until the technicals on the larger timeframes can change. Consider two supplementary charts. First is the key anchored VWAPs from major pivots in this bear market. Note the VWAPs from the mid-August 2022 high, the mid-June 2022 low, the mid-October 2022 low. Those VWAPs are converging and beginning to rise, suggesting a strong support zone from 3800-$3879. If this support breaks along with the parallel channel support (the up TL from October 13, 2022), then all bets are off. If this support holds, then watch for a move to the targets identified above. Supplementary Chart A: Anchored VWAPs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis Note the confluence of key levels in the Fibonacci price analysis around 4100 and just above that level. These also coincide with the all-time high anchored VWAP currently at 4114.25 and the down trendline from the all-time highs as well, at least where that trendline appears in the next couple weeks. As to the Fibonacci time analysis, consider that since the .50 Fibonacci time level didn't produce a meaningful turn lower, perhaps the .618 Fib level will. Full disclosure: the time analysis is the most speculative and unreliable portion of this post, so if it works out well, that would come as a surprise to ST. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
14