i say hAYYYyyyyyy what's goin ONNnnnnnfirst of all i hope everyone is okay out there <3...so many opportunities to make money in the markets and, more importantly imo, out of them
time between tops in '21 was 210 days aka 30 weeks
spiral is radius of 210, circle is 30 (with growth multiple of 3.414 applied)
(you have to play with scale and with the diff tfs/time cycle measurements)
markets are fractal, recursive, harmonic....etc etc etc and this can be expressed geometrically/visually. i think of price action/charts as a purely energetic organism growing
still haven't figured out why 3.414 is so important tho lol (self-similar reproduction aka 1+1+square root 2?)
also formed a bullish butterfly inside a massive bullish shark/cypher...still bullish tho i didn't think it would go this low...but now maybe we are ready for that bounce i've been talking about ;-)
Fibonaccispiral
uhhhh point out the bounce (jay-z voice)just some phibonacci tingz
price is now at 6.854 of time (chart scaled 1000:1)
it consolidated at 4.236 area before kittycat earlier this year (where it bounced up to the 2.618...can you feel the phi??)
volume nice, we are in cypher completion zone, spiral w/radius between 2017 tops moved to visual fit (curling up with verticals calling time reversals?)....lotta confluence. plus indicators oversold if you're into that sorta thing
she goin up soon (i don't think lower than 17-18k double bottom but don't quote me on that)
(unless that lil bounce to 25k was it??? not financially advise and i would be very sad)
<3 enjoy the last few days of summer
(see michael s jenkins on youtube for some great vids on price=time and why geometry works)
and listen to this song (jay z - the bounce)
zoom out broinspired by @spoofyy
...it's easy to look at the log rainbow and think uponly.
***NOTE: you can't lock chart when in log mode...so you'll have to play with the price scale (squeeze and stretch) til the spiral fits the tops like it did when i posted it***
but when you account for bitty topping out at lower and lower fib levels within the rainbow...you can see potential decay in the trend.
obviously we could just be in a lull and could hit $1000000 in ten years (hello hyperinflation)
but i wanted to visualize decay bc i genuinely think the log rainbow's uponly blinds me
log rainbow script:
then made double curves and visually fit them
spiral made from '11 bull market (bottom back to top diagonally) and fit to tops
i'm wary of using spirals on log charts but they seem to work a lot of the time? ... maybe bc "this is the life we have chosen" (hyperactive exponential growth)
crab rockefellerthis spiral has been strong resistance so far so i wanted to share it.
never financial/trade advice...mostly documenting my learning/wondering/wandering process. i'm professional noob
but this is results of this thought blob
posting separately so i can find it more easily
summary: root 5 spiral made from vesica piscis (yas, literally "fish bladder", it sounds way more complicated/weirder than it is, it's srsly just two interlocked circles w/some key math/ geo properties) of circle made from 2017 tops. visually fit to tops and bottoms (these are all that same spiral!) but the current one happens to be centered at the .382 of the vesica piscis...iiiiiiiiinteresting. horizontal lines drawn above and under spirals, and at center. aka support, maybe
if this plays out the way april-july pullback, consolidation, and spring did, where the vertical tangent line called the time reversal, we'll exit this crab walk in late august/early september. don't ask me where bottom is according to this "method"... bc of wicks and TV's lacking precision with geo (also myself lacking precision rn lol).
but i put cross lines at all the places the spirals touched that late august vertical line - you can see the prices highlighted in white on the price axis
even if this DOES play out ( nfa ), ofc there can still be rallies/ranging within. and wicks. i'm too jaded and burnt out from crypto to care about those tho, truly. just want that htf (remember life before crypto? LOL) for my FOMO problem
financial advice: use stop loss, don't use leverage, take days off and remember that money isn't everything. your health and the people you love (and God) are the most important. love is the real currency
sketchpad rektpad i think i was playing with pitching the circle here (tilt your head), and considering it could be pitched in two different (probs more) ways. then did pitchfans of triggernometric triangles and copied and pasted them to diff reversal points.
trying to learn thru play...putting it all together slowly and messily :-) maybe i should just get a coloring book
learn:
michael s jenkins
larry pesavento
jim bartelloni (bartscharts)
gann, probably
candleboxAI on twitter (and most of the ppl he follows esp GannJourneyman)
Triggernometry aka "Trig identities on charts??????....rekt"Posting this mostly so I can find it later, and some thoughts/guidance from actual mathemagicians would be wonderful :-) . these types of thoughts are constantly dancing around my unmedicated adhd brain like "too many notes" all the time...coupled with a math career cut short right at trig and i'm just confuuuuuused but intrigued and would love to talk to other wannabe/real nerds about this stuff!
Chart is scaled 100:1 (though I've also played with scaling / squaring the chart to a particular move, so that it looks geometrically 1:1...like a square. yes the ruler and the protractor come out. i always think of the resulting circle as a lens)
Sine, cosine, and tangent of unit circle. Not sure if changing the quadrant of the circle matters. or if the quadrant you place the identities in should depend on the direction you're projecting the move in (you could draw them in all four if you wanted?) But placement does matter, obvi. Just like with fib extensions. Where you're deriving from, and where you're placing them. I'm sure there are other identities that work...but what do they mean?
Sine: Price (Opposite aka y axis/Hypotenuse)
Cosine: Time (Adjacent aka x axis/Hypotenuse)
Tangent: Price of squared circle (as i understand it ... the square in general is total possibilities...theoretical limit...IIRC it was 3BlueBrown on youtube who described the square, in general, as probability? Least-squares? IDK. And then the circle, according to this framework, would be the actual limit/resistance/boundary of the move?) So the difference between the square and the circle is theoretical vs actual? Something something calculus????
I've also played with spirals of 90 degrees and 0 degrees (which would be the limits of sine and cosine aka price and time? of the circle?) but with multiples and factors of the unit circle...so, .707, .314, .577...some phi ratios as well. and phi multiples and square roots seem to work too.
So I'm wondering in what sense angles and their trig identities ...and what they represent which is speed? are the same thing as, just a different translation/vibration of, smaller / bigger circles. the max time/price change (aka at 0 and 90 degrees) in a .707 circle, for example, would mean the same thing as sine and cosine of ... 63 degrees? (90 x .707) depending on placement. because circle harmonics are just shorter and longer time cycles/fractals? I literally just figured out what radians are so be nice to me :-)
Gurus
Michael S. Jenkins (a few videos on youtube) is my favorite, and he is inspired by Gann who I need to read more of. Jenkins' idea (possibly Gann as well?) is that time=price. Lots of examples of, say, price increasing by $1000 over 1000 days (or whatever the time unit is...you have to find it).
Larry Pesavento
Jim Bartelloni
CandleboxAI and GannJourneyman on twitter but I don't really understand their charts yet
BTC Wyckoff Distribution. Are we sure the pattern is complete?Short-Med term bearish, long term bullish ( i believe this cycle still has to finish correcting before we can start accumulating foe the next one).
Just my own opinion but I'm seeing that everyone is all bullish because we've just had a pump, & people are now thinking we're in the Wyckof Accumulation phase.. Are we forgetting that the Wyckoff Distribution has 2 big tests on either side & all look rather symmetrical? The one earlier was not big enough to be that, & the leg down not long enough. You couldn't call that one a "Fakeout test", it was just a re-test. Wyckoff Distributions commonly have a last big Fakeout to exhaust more retail supply & induce one more big shorting opportunity before coming down to consolidation & accumulation phase. Are we forgetting too that sub 50% is a cycle correction? Most parabolic pumps correct 60-80% before accumulation, both in micro & macro. 2017 ATH corrected 81% before finally ending correction late 2018. This has happened alot quicker, & there is more institutional money this time so i wouldn't expect an identical correction but we have to expect that an end of cycle is generally more than 55%. So i feel that this isnt done yet, this is a test, & the Wyckoff pattern & head & shoulders still has to compete before the next cycle can begin.
Another thing i would add is ive been following the chart with a Fib Spiral since just early January, just after the retest down after the first big test. The same pattern that forms waves, clouds etc. By the time we got to Wave no 3 i noticed the wave peaks were plateauing out, in line with the shape of the spiral. I had a big feeling Wave no4, 64k was the peak but i didn't trust my own judgement cos im still learning. But by the time we got to Wave no5 i realised that the bigger wave, the whole cycle, was about to break. So i cashed everything to stables & ultimately avoided a whole lot of pain. So given the whole cycle seems to be shaped by the spiral, the fact that the first big test up, on the upside, & the recent big test up on the downside, are almost identically opposite each other at around the same price level, rings major alarm bells for me. They look far too symmetrical to me to be a mere coincidence, & remember symmetry is such a common thread in chart patterns, head & shoulders/double bottoms/double tops ect. So i think there's a high chance we haven't finished our correction from ATH yet. there's too much adoption & fundamentals now for it to be a full 80% correction like 2017, but i think 65% is highly likely.
We also have to take into account the fact the announcement just after NY trading hours finished, on monday, the same day of the biggest buying volumes in months, that Tether is being taken to court by the DOJ over fraud, something they will have a harder time defending than Ripple over the SEC. So its highly likely that the sudden trading volume was Tether insiders & Bitfinex hurredly offloading Tether for BTC in advance o the announcement. Given how much Wyckoff activity is all market insiders i find the coincidence between the pump & the announcement on the same day very suspicious. So again, another reason to believe that this "Breakout" is a fakeout & not a trend.
Tread carefully.. But of course the much bigger picture, across cycles is still up.. 2017 ATH corrected 81% & then the next ATH was 13-14x that. So if we repeat the pattern then the next ATH is about 260k. But i dnt believe that will happen for another year. And the sooner we finish correcting, the sooner we can start accumulating, & the cheaper the buying will be.. Tread carefully, don't FOMO in, wait a little to see what happens. I'm certain this correction isn't finished yet..
Take care & look after yourselves :)
Evaluation of supposed bullrun of bitcoinThere are 2 channels shown here inside which we would expect the price to fluctuate.
I use The black fib channel to adapt it to the recent sharp rise. After all, we are unlikely to see 3k again in the nearest future. Therefore, this tool is suitable to synchronize retracement under the new realities of the market to work out its general direction. The black fib channel has a regression function, i.e. at first its angle was support and now it has become resistance, therefore all the elements - the remaining divisions of the fibs will be relevant in the event in which the price does not break the red downward trend, playing the role of resistance.
To remain in sharp condition of bullish market OR the further growth can be possible if:
The price breaks above red line of resistance.
Doesn't cross below yellow dashed line.
Fluctuation occur inside blue channel. 1 Distortion I'd accept is breaking top side.
Otherwise, it will just retrace inside black fib channel. By the way, fib (1) of retracement channel, will act as a bottom, if the scenario above fails.
If fib (1) fails, then look for dotted green 1.618 as next support, etc.
Crossing yellow dashed line is the first sign of reversal, but I'd rather use my fave combination of indicators instead.
___________
___________
___________
___________
In my opinion, the bullrun will take place only when the price crosses above downward resistance line into green area. See chart above
How I draw Fibonacci SpiralsFirst of all comment if i'm doing something wrong, last thing i want to be doing is spreading misinformation.
Bullish moves should be placed from peak to bottom point. Highlighted in green.
While bearish moves should be places from bottom to peak point. Highlighted in orange.
These can be placed on any bullish / bearish wave, as long as they 'respect' the fibonacci spiral to a reasonable extent.
You can play around with these waves and look at how you can pick tops and bottoms using these spirals.
The middle trendline does not have to be particularly strong for the spiral to pick tops and bottoms.
If the spiral respects the wave it should trend nicely along a price point. Highlighted in orange.
These spirals in turn work well with Fib Circles, creating nice arcs to identify movement.