Get started

Fibonaccitimezones

Fibonacci Time Zones for SPX May Show Possible Turning DatesPrimary Chart : Fibonacci Times for SPX Fibonacci Time Zones for SPX May Show Possible Turning Dates Fibonacci proportions provide useful tools for working with price relationships and time relationships. The price relationships are perhaps the most familiar: price moves (swing highs to lows on various time frames) may be analyzed using Fibonacci retracements, extensions (of retracements), and projections. But time relationships can also be useful. The primary chart, Chart 1 above, shows Fibonacci time relationships using tools available on TradingView. These Fibonacci time relationships have been applied to the S&P 500, a major global equity index based in the US. Looking backwards in time to begin, the March 29, 2022 high appears to have been caught by the .50 retracement in time of the entire YTD decline from the all-time high on January 4, 2022, to the recent major low on June 17, 2022. Though not show, the major lows in March 2022 align well with the .382 retracement of the YTD decline. Fibonacci Relationships Showing Importance of August 9-12, 2022 August 9, 2022 , could mark the start of a time frame to begin looking for some sort of turn (pullback / retracement) in the S&P 500 (SPY). Undoubtedly, the beginnings of a turn yesterday ended up being a whipsaw. But several Fibonacci relationships, in fact, support August 9-12, 2022 being important in Fibonacci terms . 1. But August 9, 2022, equals the 1.618 extension of the March 29, 2022, to June 17, 2022 swing . It also shows the date that is .618 times the distance from March 29 to June 17 as projected from the June 17 low (which is a different way of expressing the same concept as a 1.618 extension of this time frame). 2. Coinciding with this date on August 9, 2022, is another Fibonacci time relationship marking Aug. 11, 2022. This time relationship is shown in the next chart below. Supplementary Chart 2: Fibonacci 2.618 Time Projection 3. Another Fibonacci proportion shows that August 12, 2022, coincides with both of the other two early August 2022 dates with Fibonacci significance. This time relationship is shown in the next chart below. Supplementary Chart 3: 1.618 Time Projection of the First High-to-High Cycle in This Bear Market Fibonacci Relationships Showing Importance of Late September 2022 Additionally, a number of days in late September 2022 appear to have Fibonacci significance. See the primary chart, Chart 1 above. September 28, 2022, is a 1.618 time extension of the entire YTD decline. The other two Fibonacci vertical lines on either side of this date assume—perhaps incorrectly—that August 11, 2022, marks some sort of swing high that leads to a temporary pullback or perhaps a longer-term decline. An additional chart points to late September 2022 as having important Fibonacci dates. Supplementary Chart 3: .50 and .618 Fibonacci Proportions of the Entire YTD Decline as Projected from June 17, 2022 Limitations of Fibonacci Time Work Fibonacci time analysis remains less concrete perhaps than other forms of Fibonacci price analysis given the subjectivity in choosing highs and lows from which to measure. But it can be enjoyable to do and occasionally help locate key time zones for market turns. This article attempts to apply Fibonacci relationships to only the most obvious swing highs and lows in the current bear market that began January 4, 2022. And it simply does not address whether lasting lows were made on June 17, 2022 or whether the index is destined to make lower lows and continue the bear market in coming weeks or months. VANTAGE:SP500 SP:SPX TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:ES1!
AMEX:SPY
by SquishTrade
6
BTCUSD's Fibonacci Tea Leaves Provide Some Helpful HintsBTCUSD's Fibonacci Tea Leaves May Provide Some Helpful Levels BTC's Downtrend Since November 10, 2021 BINANCE:BTCUSDT (BTC) has been in a downtrend since its all-time high of $69,000. But it has trended higher in a fairly choppy pattern since its major low on June 18, 2022. Many debates have arisen over whether BTC and other cryptocurrencies have found a lasting bottom that will lead to another bull market. The same questions and arguments arise for equity indices, which have experienced a bear market along with cryptocurrencies. The Debate Whether BTC Has Formed a Lasting Low Many different methods—fundamental and technical—have been explored to solve the question of where BTC's price goes next and whether a rally back to all-time highs has begun or whether another series of price declines lies ahead. One fundamental method some analysts use is called on-chain analysis, but that has likely been the basis for opposing conclusions depending on the biases of the analyst. Glassnode's on-chain analysis has suggested recently that an inflection point may require the capitulation of long-term holders (HODLers). In Forbes this week, Glassnode is quoted as saying: "Bottom formation is often accompanied by shouldering an increasingly large proportion of the unrealized loss." It explained further that "for a bear market to reach an ultimate floor, the share of coins held at a loss should transfer primarily to those who are the least sensitive to price, and with the highest conviction." In any event, this article will not attempt to comment on the validity of any particular fundamental view —the fundamental view provided only for context and newsworthy information. Important Levels from Fibonacci Analysis Fibonacci ratios can be used in a variety of ways in technical analysis. Fibonacci analysis does not have any particular edge over all other forms of analysis, but instead, it is one of many tools that may offer helpful information in analyzing the price activity of a liquid security. No form of technical analysis, including Fibonacci, is infalliable, and none serves as a crystal ball that predicts every price move or wiggle. Simply put, technical analysis does not offer a photographic view of the future of price. If it did, markets could not function effectively or efficiently (unless the photographic view of the future were limited to a select few by cost or other means). But using Fibonacci ratios to analyze price may help identify both time and price areas that can be important to watch. In particular, it helps to see how price interacts with such levels. BTC's Longer-Term Fibonacci Retracement Levels Fibonacci retracements apply the Fibonacci ratios to an identifiable price move between a high and a low or between a low and a high. These ratios are applied to the distance between a selected high and low so that as price retraces a previous move, the ratios can be viewed as either support or resistance. For BTC's major retracement levels, see the horizontal levels on the primary chart above and the horizontal levels on the Supplementary Chart 1 below. The primary chart above shows the retracement levels from the all-time low ($2.22) to the all-time high ($69,000). Retracement levels tend to have greater significance when, as here, they apply over a long period of time and cover price action at the highest degree of trend. (No swing high or low has more significance than an all-time high and all-time low of a security or other asset.) Price appears to have remained stuck below the .618 retracement (R) of BTC's entire price range. This major .618 R level is the horizontal yellow line on the main chart above, and it lies at 26,359.37 . BTC broke through this key level on June 13, 2022. It had tested this level on May 12, 2022, when it held as support the same day (note the long candle shadow piercing the .618 R on May 12, 2022, and the close above this level). The fact that price has remained contained below the .618 R for almost a month and a half has bearish weight, though it's not conclusive. The importance of this level combined with the fact that another important longer-term Fibonacci level lies very near to it (a Fibonacci cluster) suggests that this area may attract price in the near term. It will be important see whether these levels repel price, or whether price can break above them. The next chart shows the Fibonacci cluster described. The .618 R level of BTC's entire range has been drawn on the chart next to the other key level, the .618 projection of the first leg in the bear market as measured from the start of the second leg. This .618 projection lies at 25,950 . Supplementary Chart 1: Fibonacci Cluster with Two Longer-Term Fibonacci Levels Shown in Yellow BTC's Fibonacci Channel Containing Price Since the All-Time High A Fibonacci channel is another approach to Fibonacci. It shows Fibonacci relationships in a more dynamic way. The zero line works as a baseline from which all other Fibonacci levels are then drawn parallel using Fibonacci proportions. The zero line contains price in much the same way as a regular uptrend or downtrend line. The primary chart above shows the Fibonacci channel for BTC's price. It has identified a significant number of support and resistance areas. The most prominent area is the diagonal .618 line which has acted as support a number of times such as in February and March 2022 and in May 2022. The .618 diagonal line also operated as resistance a few times (e.g., December 2021 and mid-January 2022). Note how the .618 diagonal line for the channel held support at the pivotal selloff on May 12, 2022, and on this date, the .618 diagonal line coincided with the .618 R ( horizontal yellow line showing BTC's .618 retracement of its entire price range). Finally, over the past 10 days, it appears that BTC's price has been working to push through the .236 diagonal line (teal). It has pushed above it slightly on several days but closed back below it: note the candle wicks piercing the line with closes below it. Today's push above the .236 diagonal line may end the same way as prior days. But if BTC holds the .236 diagonal line as support, the next level will be the zero diagonal line (blue), which was strong resistance at the end of the rally in late March 2022. Importantly, to even approach the zero diagonal line (blue), BTC's price must push through the major .618 R (horizontal yellow line) unless BTC's price consolidates or pulls back and only later tries to reach the zero diagonal line on August 19-20, 2022 . Why this date? BTC's .618 R (horizontal yellow line) coincides with the zero diagonal line (blue) on August 19-20, 2022. See the blue-filled circle on the main chart above showing where the two levels coincide. August 19, 2022 is significant date for equity indices: it is monthly options expiration, which can sometimes, though not always, serve to shift the direction of equity indices. This will be interesting to track. Tug of War Between BTC's 1.00 Projection Level at 12,173 and the Horizontal Fibonacci Cluster at 25,950 to 26,359 The Fibonacci cluster described above includes the major .618 retracement (horizontal yellow line on the main chart above) as well as the .618 projection (horizontal line shown in Supplementary Chart 1). As noted, the Fibonacci Cluster coincides with the zero diagonal line from the Fibonacci Channel on August 19-20, 2022. This Fibonacci cluster and the zero diagonal line may play tug of war with another key level at 12,173 (see green horizontal line on Supplementary Chart 1 below). This 12,173 level is the Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first wave of the decline as measured from the start of the second wave of the decline. Each wave of the decline has been labeled on Supplementary Chart 1 below. Perhaps price will tag them both in the coming weeks. Supplementary Chart 1: Fibonacci Cluster with Two Longer-Term Fibonacci Levels Shown in Yellow Fibonacci Time Analysis with Potential Dates for Turning Points Supplementary Chart 2 below shows some Fibonacci time analyses drawn vertically with TradingView's Trend-Based Fib Time tool. The blue circles indicate where the Fibonacci proportions in time identified—or nearly identified, meaning within one to three days—a significant price move. The red circles indicate upcoming dates at Fibonacci proportions in time based on the length of time of the prior price swings. Coincidentally, consider the August 19-20, 2022 date discussed above where a horizontal .618 R of BTC's entire price range coincides with the zero diagonal line of the Fibonacci channel. This falls quite close in time to another Fibonacci time-based level: the 1.272 extension of the time span between March 28, 2022 high and the June 18, 2022 low (shown vertically in teal). Note also how other recent minor price highs in the past month were captured by this Fibonacci time-based tool. Lastly, October 29 to November 1, 2022 also appears that it might have significance. Three golden ratios (.618, 1.618, and 2.618) based on the entire price decline in terms of time, and based on the March 28-June 18, 2022 price decline, fall in this period. It may be worth watching what sort of price moves lead to this level and whether other technical evidence supports a potential reversal there. Supplementary Chart 2: Fibonacci Time Analysis BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
What Are Fibonacci Time Zones?Fibonacci time zones are a technical indicator based on time. The indicator is typically started at a major swing high or swing low on the chart. Vertical lines then extend out to the right, indicating areas of time that could result in another significant swing high, low, or reversal. These vertical lines, which correspond to time on the x-axis of a price chart, are based on Fibonacci numbers. KEY TAKEAWAYS #Fibonacci time zones are vertical lines that represent potential areas where a swing high, low, or reversal could occur. #Fibonacci time zones may not indicate exact reversal points. They are time-based areas to be aware of. #Fibonacci time zones only indicate potential areas of importance related to time. No regard is given to price. The zone could mark a minor high or low, or a significant high or low. #Fibonacci time zones are based on the Fibonacci number sequence, which gives us the Golden Ratio. How Fibonacci Time Zones Work Fibonacci time zones don't require a formula, but it does help to understand Fibonacci numbers. In the Fibonacci number sequence, each successive number is the sum of the last two numbers. The sequence starts like this: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and so on. Fibonacci times zones are these numbers when added to the initial time selected. Thus, if we choose a start date of April 1, this would be time (0). The first Fibonacci time zone vertical line will then appear on the next trading session (1), the second will appear two sessions later (2), and then three (3), five (5), and eight (8) days later, and so on. If adding Fibonacci time zones by hand, the first five numbers can be avoided, as the indicator is not particularly reliable when all the vertical lines are packed together. Therefore, some traders start drawing their vertical lines 13 or 21 periods after their starting point. Some charting platforms allow you to choose your starting point (0) and your first point (1). This means you can choose how much time (1) represents. The next numbers in the sequence will correspond to the amount of time chosen. What Do Fibonacci Time Zones Tell You? Identifying a starting point is an important but subjective element of using Fibonacci time zones. The date or period selected should be a relatively important one, marking a high or low point. When the indicator is applied to this date or period, vertical lines will appear to the right of the starting point. The first line will appear one period after the starting point, the next will appear two periods after, and so on. As indicated above, typically the first few zones are ignored, as they cluster around the starting point. The vertical lines that are 13 or more periods away from the starting point tend to be more reliable. Fibonacci time zones are essentially telling us that after a high or low, another high or low could occur 13, 21, 55, 89, 144, 233... periods after the initial point. Time zones aren't concerned with price, only time. Therefore, the time zones may mark small high or lows, or they may mark significant ones. The price may also completely ignore the time zones. If this occurs multiple times, the price isn't adhering to the Fibonacci time zones so a different starting point may provide better results. It is also possible Fibonacci time zones aren't particularly applicable to a certain security or asset. Fibonacci time zones can be used for confirmation of trades or analysis. For example, if the price is approaching a support area and also a Fibonacci time zone, and the price then rises off support, the two methods confirm each other. A low point is potentially in and the price could keep rising. Another form of analysis is required for assessing how high the price may rise, as Fibonacci time zones don't indicate the magnitude of moves. The price may make a low and then rise significantly, or it may only temporarily rise before falling to a new low. Fibonacci Time Zones vs. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci time zones are vertical lines that represent future time periods where the price could make a high, low, or reverse course. Fibonacci retracements instead indicate areas the price could pull back off of a high or low. Retracements are price-based and provide support or resistance areas based on Fibonacci numbers. Limitation of Using Fibonacci Time Zones Fibonacci time zones are a subjective indicator in that the starting point selected will vary by trader. Also, since some charting platforms allow the trader to choose how much time (1) represents, this further adds to the subjectivity and may eliminate the usefulness of the indicator altogether. The indicator, if properly set, may indicate areas of time where the price could put in a high or low, yet these may be minor highs or lows, or major ones. Time zones don't provide any information on the magnitude of price moves. They also rarely pinpoint the exact turning point date. This makes it hard to determine if the indicator is actually predictive or just randomly happens to appear near some reversal points. The indicator shouldn't be used on its own. Combine it with trend and price action analysis, as well as other technical indicators and/or fundamental analysis. (Source: Investopedia)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crypt0_Ninja
6
You Don't Have to Love it to Long it - EOS! (EOSBTC)Hello Friends! Our last EOS analysis was just a bit of playing around with Fib Times, and an update on EOS was requested so I figured I would sit down and do a real analysis on it. As you can see, EOS is trying to establish itself with some ascending support, and a strong reaction from there in Nov/Dec 2018 resulted into an uptrend that carried us all the way to April of this year. Since then, EOS has been correcting and having bounced once off the 62% retracement, I think now it is looking to give one more opportunity to buy there, around 7000 - 7500 satoshi, before continuing upwards. The support here is pretty clear, so a stop loss can be easily defined by a break below the fib channel to which I've added the red sell box. If the bullish scenario plays out, hopefully EOS will see a reaction to the .886 or 100% fib time zone, and trend upwards to a breakout of the 50% fib resistance (red line under the buy box) The dotted line/arrow, is what I believe to be the most probably scenario. Either way, a breakout or breakdown is easily and clearly defined on EOS now, all we have to do is wait... So, you can either buy on a retouch of 62%, or on a breakout in the green box. Then, a stop loss can be set most likely a bit under 7,000 satoshi. Good luck traders!
Long
by vox-populi