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Fibonnacci

EUR/JPY - Trade idea for the upcoming weekWhy did I choose this trade? Trend Analysis and Bias: -On the 4-hour (4H) chart, the price is in a downward correction but approaching a significant support area (Buy Zone) near 159.274, where I expect buyers to take control. -My bias for the upcoming week is bullish, based on the overall market structure and key technical confirmations. Key Structures and Confirmations: -Break of Structure (BOS): The price has shown bullish strength by breaking key resistance levels multiple times in the past, confirming that buyers are dominant. -Change of Character (CHoCH): After forming my Buy Zone, a clear CHoCH upwards occurred, providing another strong signal of buyer strength. -Liquidity Grab: There is significant liquidity just above my Buy Zone, which has already been filled. This is another strong indication that the price could reverse upward from this zone. -Fibonacci Confluence: I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to refine my Buy Zone. The Buy Zone aligns with the premium Fibonacci range, adding more confidence to the validity of this level. Additionally, I always draw Fibonacci from an area of accumulation that leads to a break of structure. In this case, the accumulation area aligns perfectly with the Buy Zone, making it even stronger. Volume and Imbalance: The previous strong imbalance candle (IMB) shows that the market might retrace upward to fill this gap, further supporting my bullish outlook. Psychological and Technical Levels: The price is approaching the 159.000 level, a psychologically significant number that often acts as a magnet for buyers and sellers. This level aligns closely with my Buy Zone, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal. Trade Plan Entry (Buy): 159.300, slightly above the Buy Zone, to capture the expected bullish reversal. Stop Loss: 158.800, placed below the Buy Zone and the most recent swing low to avoid potential stop hunts. Take Profit (TP): TP1: 161.000 – The nearest resistance level, where price could encounter selling pressure. TP2: 162.000 – A key resistance zone, ideal if bullish momentum continues strongly. Why do I anticipate this move? The Buy Zone is a strong support area, confirmed by Fibonacci confluence, bullish CHoCH, and prior liquidity being filled. The Fibonacci is drawn from an accumulation zone that led to a structure break, further reinforcing the Buy Zone’s significance. My bullish bias for the week aligns with these technical confirmations, suggesting that buyers will likely regain control at this level. A combination of liquidity grab, CHoCH, BOS, and imbalance zones adds additional layers of confidence to this trade idea. Disclaimer: This is solely a trading idea based on my personal analysis, knowledge, and thought process. This is NOT financial advice. Please conduct your own research and implement proper risk management. Trading carries significant risks, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. Tilen Safaric
Long
by Safaric
4
$BTC1! Fib Simulation of Fractal (UPD)Perceiving the price action as a function of trading time justifies the quantitative approach in drawing geometric relationship between phases of cycles. Hence, it's safe for me to assume that market is a time fractal which has its own path regardless the collective opinions of the market participants. Logistic curve that reflects well the speed of information spreading made me ignore the voices of masses. The principle aligns with EMH - that the condition of the market is already reflected in the current price. Impulsive and corrective waves are governed by golden rule in one way or the other. That's why I used fibonacci channels to build predictive models which reflect the interconnectedness of composite fractals to the whole cycle. By measuring the extreme levels of historic wave, the derived fibonacci channels exposed the timing, size and probability levels of the next ones. In regular TA, people are wrongfully focused on covering their immediate expectations from the market, analyzing a narrow data range of the chart. Whereas, Fractal Analysis graphically shows how current price is interconnected with the entire history of fluctuations in a single probabilistic map. In this update I fused earlier discovered structures and boundaries to the chart Added more series of fib ratios derived from white triangle (src 0;1) Linear boundaries of macro-fractal: Implementation of fibs with big time Intervals: As violet Fibs: Other observations: We're in a big triangle derived by linear extension 2021 tops and Full cycle (COVID - 2022 LOWS) Source: Implementation: (On interactive chart it darkens till intersection)
CME:BTC1!
by fract
1
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal: Double Top and Golden Pocket Breakdown!OANDA:XAUUSD - 2Hr The analysis suggests the market is showing bearish signals, particularly after price rejected at key resistance zones during the Asian session. The Ascending Channel indicates an upward trend, but the breakdown from the channel signals that bullish momentum is weakening. Key Elements Driving the Short Trade: 1. Golden Pocket (0.5–0.618 Fib): The price has reached the Golden Pocket (between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels), a strong reversal zone. Rejections in this zone often signal a potential change in trend, especially when combined with other bearish signals. 2. MML Major Resistance: The MML Major Resistance suggests that the market is encountering a significant obstacle, further validating the potential for a reversal. 3. Strong Resistance: The price is facing Strong Resistance at higher levels, which is causing the price to struggle and reject, confirming the reversal bias. 4. Double Top: The Double Top pattern at the Golden Pocket indicates that the price has attempted to break higher twice but failed, signaling weakness and a likely bearish shift. This pattern often leads to a trend reversal. 5. Price Gap: A Price Gap further confirms a shift in market sentiment, with a possible imbalance or sudden price movement that reinforces the bearish view. Current Price Action: During the Asian session, price broke down from the Ascending Channel, signaling a shift from an uptrend to a potential downtrend. The breakdown occurred near Equilibrium and the 50% Fib retracement, reinforcing the idea of a reversal as this is where price typically finds resistance in a trend. The Double Top at the Golden Pocket suggests a strong potential for a downward move as the price has failed to continue higher. Currently, the price is above a Strong Pivot Point, which is acting as support, potentially leading to a short-term pullback or consolidation before the bearish move continues. Interpretation: The combination of the Golden Pocket, Double Top, and rejection at key resistance levels gives a strong bearish signal. The ideal entry point would be after confirmation of price breaking below the Strong Pivot Point or failing to sustain above it, with a target near the next support or at Price Gap, as mentioned Price target. Place the stop loss just above the Double Top or near the Strong Resistance zone to limit risk in case the market reverses back up. In conclusion, the market is showing signs of a bearish reversal after rejection at multiple key levels, and the analysis points toward potential short opportunities with proper risk management. "Stick to Your Plan and Manage Risk, Happy Trading!"
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SpicyPips
TOTAL 3 - Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC and ETHVery technical. A global trend, followed by a correction to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the global order block, which is also the PoC (Point of Control) of the entire trend movement. We're clearly moving within a kind of wedge. We haven't been fans of technical analysis for a while, but part of it will always stay with us. I think this is one of those moments when, after it plays out, people will look back and say: "How obvious it was." There are two options here: either one more update of the lows on altcoins or a correction upwards. Two scenarios, but globally, it doesn't change anything.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by -NIKO-
Tesla’s Next Move: Riding the Q3 MomentumDescription: In this analysis, we dive deep into Tesla’s recent performance and explore potential future price action. Fueled by an impressive Q3 earnings beat, Tesla has seen a bullish surge. Here, I’ll guide you through key technical and fundamental insights, using the FibExtender Pro to map out support and resistance zones, and provide a structured plan for potential entry, profit targets, and stop-loss levels. My goal is to offer a clear perspective for those considering Tesla’s next moves, balancing optimistic outlooks with realistic caution in case of market reversals. Introduction: NASDAQ:TSLA has been the talk of the market this past week, with its third-quarter earnings report surprising analysts and investors alike. The company not only exceeded revenue expectations but also showcased significant growth in profit margins, particularly in its energy generation and storage segments. This recent performance has set a bullish tone, sparking a 26% surge in Tesla’s stock price over just a few days. This idea aims to explore Tesla’s current momentum, analyze key technical levels using the FibExtender Pro script, and present potential trading opportunities for the days ahead. I’ll break down my thoughts into straightforward sections for entry points, profit targets, and stop-loss levels based on recent data, technical indicators, and broader market sentiment. Tesla’s Q3 Earnings Fueling the Bullish Trend Tesla’s third-quarter report painted an impressive picture, with strong revenue growth and margin improvements that bucked some of the broader economic trends affecting the automotive industry. As electric vehicle adoption accelerates, Tesla continues to leverage its market leadership, supported by CEO Elon Musk’s optimistic guidance on future vehicle sales and advancements in autonomous technology. Notably, the company reported a significant 20-30% expected vehicle sales growth for 2025, adding fuel to the stock’s upward momentum​. This positive sentiment, combined with Tesla’s ambitious long-term goals (such as robotaxi deployment by 2026), has prompted many analysts to revise their price targets. While some have remained cautious, noting high valuations, the consensus leans towards a bullish short- to mid-term outlook, primarily due to Tesla’s earnings momentum and strong brand positioning. Technical Analysis with FibExtender Pro: Key Levels to Watch Using the FibExtender Pro script, which identifies Fibonacci-based support and resistance zones, we can map out Tesla’s potential price action in the short term. As illustrated in the chart, two crucial levels have emerged: a resistance zone near $277 and a support zone around $233. Let’s walk through these levels and explore possible scenarios for Tesla’s price action. Resistance at $277 : This level has been marked as a critical resistance zone based on recent price action and Fibonacci retracement levels. Given Tesla’s recent surge, reaching this level is a strong possibility if the bullish momentum continues. A breakout above $277 would indicate a strong bullish continuation and could open doors for Tesla to test even higher resistance levels, potentially moving towards the $290-$300 range. Support at $233 : On the downside, $233 represents a major support level where buyers may step in if Tesla faces a pullback. This level serves as a safeguard against market reversals, providing a solid entry for those looking to buy Tesla at a discount if market conditions turn volatile. Potential Trade Setup Entry Point: If Tesla’s bullish momentum continues, entering around the $250-$255 range would be ideal. This level allows us to capitalize on upward momentum while keeping a buffer below the resistance zone. However, patience may be key here; waiting for a slight pullback or a consolidation period around this range could provide a better risk-to-reward setup. Profit Targets: First Target at $277 : This is the initial resistance level, and a prudent place to secure partial profits, particularly if Tesla faces resistance here as it did previously. Extended Target at $290-$300 : If Tesla breaks above $277 with strong volume, the next resistance zone sits in the $290-$300 range. Reaching this level would signal continued bullish strength and could offer further upside for those willing to hold. Stop-Loss Level: To manage risk, consider placing a stop-loss just below the support level at $233. This stop will protect against a deeper pullback, potentially caused by profit-taking or broader market weakness. A more conservative stop could be placed at $240 to accommodate minor fluctuations while still protecting capital. Analyzing Broader Market Conditions While Tesla’s recent earnings and price action are compelling, it’s crucial to account for the broader market context. Macro-economic headwinds, particularly interest rate hikes and inflation concerns, continue to affect growth stocks. Additionally, Tesla’s valuation remains high, and any negative shift in investor sentiment could lead to a correction. Here’s how these factors play into our analysis: Interest Rates : Rising interest rates could create resistance for high-growth stocks like Tesla, as higher borrowing costs can impact both consumer spending and Tesla’s operational expenses. EV Competition : Although Tesla remains the market leader, increased competition from other automakers, such as Ford and Rivian, could influence its long-term dominance. Keeping an eye on developments within the EV sector is essential for assessing Tesla’s sustainability. Considering these factors helps us balance the optimistic outlook with realistic caution, preparing for any unexpected shifts in market sentiment. My Thought Process Behind This Trade Idea From a technical perspective, Tesla’s recent surge post-earnings provides a strong bullish setup. By analyzing the FibExtender Pro ’s support and resistance levels, I’ve identified the $277 level as a short-term profit target. My goal is to provide readers with a comprehensive view of Tesla’s current momentum and map out a clear trading strategy, combining fundamental strength with Fibonacci-based technical analysis . This approach is especially helpful in markets like Tesla’s, where rapid moves often require adaptable entry and exit points. Furthermore, it’s essential to consider profit-taking strategies. As Tesla approaches each resistance level, locking in partial profits can protect against sudden reversals, while maintaining upside exposure for continued gains. With stop-losses positioned below support, this strategy offers a structured risk-reward setup, balancing bullish optimism with prudent risk management. Conclusion Tesla’s recent performance and bullish sentiment provide a promising outlook for the stock. However, as with any trading decision, it’s essential to balance the potential upside with well-planned risk management. Based on the FibExtender Pro analysis, Tesla’s next key resistance level lies at $277, with an extended target of $290-$300. Support at $233 offers a safety net in case of market corrections. This idea aims to guide traders through Tesla’s current setup, blending fundamental insights with technical precision. By following this structured approach, we can make informed decisions, capitalizing on Tesla’s momentum while safeguarding against potential pullbacks. Whether Tesla continues its bullish climb or encounters resistance, this analysis provides a framework to adapt and respond confidently. Key Takeaways: Entry Range : $250-$255 Profit Targets : $277 (first target), $290-$300 (extended target) Stop-Loss : Below $233 (preferably around $240 for a conservative buffer) This trading idea seeks to balance optimism with caution, setting realistic targets that align with Tesla’s recent performance and technical signals. Remember, while the bullish setup is promising, unexpected market shifts could impact Tesla’s trajectory. Stay alert, manage your risks, and adjust your strategy based on real-time market feedback. Trade safe and stay informed! Let’s make smart moves together. – TradeVizion
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradeVizion
Alibaba: Will $BABA Bounce Back or Break Key Support (Daily TF)Hey everyone, below is an analysis on NYSE:BABA using MACD, RSI, Fibonacci levels and technical (gap) levels. Current Price Levels: NYSE:BABA is trading around $89.35, down significantly (~26%) from its October 7 high of $117.82. A notable gap between $85 and $86.95 suggests this is a key level of interest for potential support or further downside risk. Momentum Indicators: MACD: Shows signs of curling upward, which could indicate momentum shifting toward bullish sentiment. RSI: Currently not oversold (at 36), but still in a relatively low range, suggesting there is room for price recovery. Technical Levels: Gaps and Fibonacci retracements are marked as potential resistance and support zones: Gap resistance levels: $93.33-$95.05 and $96.80-$99.18. Higher resistance levels around $104.41 (gap from October 15) and $117.82 (October high). Previous daily high at $89.50 could act as near-term resistance. Fibonacci Levels: The chart includes a retracement from the October high ($117.82) to recent lows, with levels such as 0.236 ($90.29), 0.5 ($102.53), and 0.786 ($111.27) potentially serving as resistance on any upward move. Feedback and Outlook: Support and Resistance Analysis: Support: The gap zone between $85-$86.95 may provide a strong base if selling pressure continues. A break below $85 could indicate further downside. Resistance: Short-term resistance is seen at $90.29 (0.236 Fib level) and $93.33-$95.05 (gap resistance). These levels will likely be tested if buying pressure builds. Gaps to Be Filled: If the price begins to recover, the first upside target would be filling the $93.33-$95.05 gap. This aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels and may act as strong resistance. Outlook: Bullish Case: If momentum continues to build, expect a recovery toward the $93-$95 range, with further potential to reach $102 (50% retracement). This would require breaking above immediate resistance at $90.29. Bearish Case: If the current support at $85 fails, further downside to test levels around $80 or lower is possible. Final Thoughts: The chart suggests a cautious bullish outlook in the short term, especially if the $85 support holds. Watch for price action and volume around the resistance zones to confirm whether this is a dead-cat bounce or a true reversal. Currently in NYSE:BABA 1/17/25 $100c (BOT @ $1.73).
NYSE:BABALong
by Brandonthrives
ZIL, Zilliqa, 0.618 Fib retrace sets up a 47x targetmy favorite trade; Golden pocket special.. What's Zil up to these days anyway? Key Points Trump lol The Trade: Entry: $0.0136 would be best, but given the R:R It's still tempting here at $0.016 Stop: $0.01 Target: $0.80 D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES. Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. This is not financial advice. These are just my observations. Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
BINANCE:ZILUSDLong
by TribeWriter666
Next Target for DYDXUSDT After Downtrend BreakoutThe DYDXUSDT pair, after breaking out of the downward channel to the upside, is currently forming higher lows and highs. The Fibonacci extension of the previous bullish wave aligns with the 1.3500 level, which also corresponds to the previous high. Therefore, our target price is set at this level. SL (Stop Loss): 1.1742 TP (Take Profit): 1.3500 Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.67 Do you think we’ll hit the target? Let’s discuss your insights and predictions below! And don’t forget to like if you found this analysis helpful
Long
by Market-Analyzer
Cardano most passive scenario when Crypto/BTC pops Here a lidle Fib/Waveanalysis of Cardano aka ADA. Just dont forget to mention that this is the most passive wave target with the assumption that we in thie case allready bottomed in WAVE2 Correction, waiting for impulsive start into Wave 3. Wave 3 to 5 are more or less assumptions that only work out when my theory of done wave 1 and 2 has been done allready and validated by a impulsive wave 3. Facts that we can mention is, that after last bullrun WAVE1 is perfectly arrived in Fib range 88.6 to 78.6 thats a detail that makes me really safe about that whole structure i drawed in that chart. At the end i will update Target when we drag a bit from actual price to 0.23$ and my thesis still would be valid. !!! If we go lower then the 0.23$ then my thesis would be invalidate and we are still in correction of the last bullrun. !!! Target of Wafe 5 is when everything runs minmimalistic with elliotwave targets is around 1.19$ Stay tuned folks
Long
by RairyHectum
1
ADA, Cardano, 0.5 Fib retrace sets up a 27x Algo targetCan you feel that? the weight has been lifted... With Trump winning the election and BTC breaking ATH, expect alts to rally. Hard. Cardano is set up perfectly, there isn't a better entry than this. Key Points: The 2020 bull market fully retraced to 0.5 fib A retrace to only 0.5 fib suggests Cardano is very strong 0.5 tested multiple times with a higher low now in Trump won the election - very bullish for crypto The Trade: Entry: anywhere here. this is a monthly chart. Think bigger picture. Buy and hold. Algo Target: $10.33 (27x) Stops: if something weird happens and this starts selling off, I'd be out under that previous low. Range Expansion Target: $38.60 (100x) - less likely but who knows, might be worth keeping a small moon bag. We won't talk about the Elliot wave targets... too high, too much hopium D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES. Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. This is not financial advice. These are just my observations. Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
Long
by TribeWriter666
Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for Short and Long OpportunitiesI'm watching the Nasdaq closely as it approaches a critical decision point. In this analysis, I’ll outline two potential scenarios, including both short and long trade ideas based on the confluence of key technical levels. Current Setup and Key Level: 20,320 Right now, the 20,320 level is my primary focus. This level aligns with: The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend, suggesting potential resistance. The VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price), which is acting as a dynamic resistance level. This confluence makes 20,320 a critical resistance zone, where the market might either reverse or push through, setting the tone for the next significant move. Scenario 1: Short Opportunity at 20,320 Resistance If the price approaches 20,320 and shows signs of rejection (like a bearish candle pattern), I’m looking to take a short position at this level. Here’s why: Fibonacci & VWAP Confluence: The alignment of the 38.2% Fib level with the VWAP reinforces this level as a strong potential resistance. Risk Management: I would place a stop-loss above the 50% Fib level (around 20,400) to manage risk if the price breaks higher. Targets: My initial target would be around the 20,000 level. If this breaks, I anticipate a stronger move downward due to potential stop-losses being triggered below 20,000 (more on that below). Note on Stop-Loss Clusters: I believe many traders might have their stops placed just below the 20,000 mark. If the price breaks below this level, we could see a quick, momentum-driven move lower as these stops are triggered, potentially driving price toward deeper levels. Scenario 2: Bullish Break Above 20,320 If the price breaks above 20,320 and holds above both the VWAP and the 38.2% Fib level, it could signal a bullish shift. Here’s what I’m looking for in this scenario: Confirmation Above VWAP and Fib Level: A strong break and close above these levels would indicate that bulls are taking control and might push for higher retracement levels. Potential Targets: In this scenario, I’d look for the price to move towards the 50% Fibonacci level (around 20,400) as the next resistance, followed by the 61.8% level near 20,500 if momentum holds. Invalidation for Shorts: A decisive break and hold above 20,320 would invalidate the short setup. If this happens, I’ll look for potential long entries on a pullback to the VWAP or 38.2% Fib as support, with stops below these levels to manage risk. Conclusion The 20,320 area is the key level to watch here, with potential for both short and long setups: Short Scenario: Look for rejection at 20,320 to target a move down to 20,000, with a possible extension lower if the 20,000 support breaks. Long Scenario: A break above 20,320 could open the door for further upside, with potential targets around 20,400 and 20,500. This setup combines technical indicators with price psychology, as stops clustered around the 20,000 level may drive significant moves if that support level is breached. I'll be monitoring how the price reacts to 20,320 closely for confirmation of either setup. Let me know if you see anything differently or if you have any questions. Happy trading!
CME_MINI:MNQZ2024
by natron
1
SMHI - Can an ugly chart actually be a good play?This is one of those charts I had on a watchlist titled "Waiting For Bottom". I checked in on Friday and it was touching the bottom of the channel. Boom! Is this post a prediction? Nope. Do I think this Elliott Wave count is for sure accurate? Nope. So what is this? First of all, remove all of the markings and look at the chart with nothing but price action. What do you see? If your answer is a "a complete mess that was generally melting up until the middle of 2024", you'd be correct. This is not a trending stock with a high probability setup. There is no clear 5-waves up pattern playing out. In fact, there is no clear anything pattern playing out. But that's exactly why I think this "might" be a diagonal and might be an interesting play for a solid risk/reward. What is a diagonal you ask? Let's make sure you understand. In Elliott Wave, there are only TWO types of bullish patterns. The first is the classic 5-wave impulse where the underlying trends up in odd numbered waves and correcting each one in the even numbered waves. Think of a lightning bolt. 1 - Up off a low. 2 - Corrects 1, can't move below it. 3 - The breakout, usually the most impulsive and powerful wave. 4 - Corrects 3, can't break below the top of 1. 5 - The final move up, can be powerful, can be weak, but will almost always give a higher high. 5-wave impulsive moves start when the underlying is very bearish. Wave 1 starts by getting back to or breaking a key resistance area. Those who jump in during it are considered early adopters. The only support is the previous low. The vast majority of market participants are avoiding. Once it tops and rolls over, the majority are convinced new lows are coming. Some early adopters sell out or take profit. But a successful Wave 2 holds above the previous low, giving a higher low setup. It is followed by a consolidation as momentum builds up in the beginning of the 3rd wave. Once Wave 3 breaks out above Wave 1, smart technical traders start jumping in. Maybe it happens on an earnings report and some fundies jump in. It starts to really trend as more heads start to turn and realize that not only did it hold a higher low, buts its also working on a higher high. And if it is powerful enough, it will break more resistance and more and more participants will jump in. Eventually though, Wave 3 tops. Many early adopters take their profit and leave. It consolidates into a Wave 4, holding another higher low above the Wave 1 top. But as it starts Wave 5, the majority of the participants are now the late adopters and retail traders, with a spattering of early adopters who still have a small tranche left, already being in the green on smart sales at the top of Wave 3. Wave 5 then completes, often trapping late adopters who were sure it was going to the moon. Well this stock doesn't seem to be that. This thing overlaps all over the place. It could be an upward corrective wave of some sort before a drop to new lows. But as of now, it's playing along nicely with what its called a diagonal. A diagonal is a 5-wave structure. But this one is different. With diagonals, Wave 3 "can" overlap below the top of Wave 1. And one of the leading clues you might be in a diagonal is when the subwaves break down into segments of 3 wave moves instead of 5 wave moves. Why does this exist? Well, it starts off similar to a standard 5-wave move. A low is formed and a move is commenced off of it. But the succeeding retracement of that move is VERY deep, retracing almost all of the first move up. The next higher high is then around 100-161.8% of the first move, with the retracement that follows also very deep. All of this is likely happening within Wave (1) and Wave (2) of the diagonal. See, market participants are so polarized with the underlying, that they are whipping it back and forth, neither side able to ultimately win very long, yet the bulls slightly nudging out the bears with marginal higher highs and higher lows. It continues this whipsaw with every move, slowly melting upward. Instead of the whole 5-wave pattern targeting the 176.4%-200% extension of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 2 (what happens in a standard 5-wave impulse), it targets lower extension levels, typically the 161.8% level. Diagonals are either LEADING or ENDING moves. They CAN NOT be 3rd waves in larger patterns. So you will either get one as a first wave of a larger move, or you will get one to finish a larger move. In this case, it would be a leading diagonal of something much larger. So back to this specific stock. Thanks for enduring the educational section. Let's talk why I think this is a diagonal. You can see the wave labels clearly outlining the 3-wave moves within the larger 5-wave diagonal. They are labeled ABC within the (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). At present, this is within $1 of the ideal retracement level of the (3)rd wave for Wave (4). And it's clearly the 3rd segment of the ABC we would expect for a corrective (4)th wave. Not only that, it's holding the channel (but that's not required, just an area of support). Diagonals do often retrace deep, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to the 76.4% correction area around $4.50. If you are risk averse, you could enter in the current area with stop just under $4.49. But as long as it holds the Wave (2) low, the diagonal stays valid. Ideally, it would be either contracting (trendline connecting (1), (3), and (5) contracting toward trendline connecting (2) and (4)) or expanding (same thing, but trendlines diverging away from each other), with expanding diagonals being pretty rare, but possible. They can tend to run in channels as well. So ideally, this doesn't get much lower as that would turn it into an expanding diagonal, which we know is rare, and leads to future bullish action being even MORE unreliable. Standard supply and demand zones are on the chart representing major support and resistance areas. If this holds support, it likely finds renewed strength up toward resistance and will bounce around in mostly unpredictable, overlapping structures that generally melt up. But once it engages the next C Wave, you should be able to track a standard 5-wave pattern within that C, as C-waves are always 5-wave structures. As I stated at the beginning, in no way is this a reliable structure. But you see things like this fairly often, and anywhere from second to monthly charts. The longer the duration, the more confusing, as you can have years of price movement that seem to make no sense. Ultimately, you have to watch supports and play smart. Is this something you want to align a lot of your money in? Probably not. It's unpredictable at best. And it could fail at any moment at worst since diagonals are "technically" corrective structures even when bullish. But is a chart like this giving up a setup for potentially phenomenal risk/reward? You bet. Just make sure and manage your risk. And you do that with your position sizing, using an appropriate stop *and if you get stopped, stay stopped. You set it for a reason, don't second guess), and understanding your targets, making sure to de-risk as quick as possible by selling enough at key levels to get your original equity back should it move upward. Feel free to ask questions. This was meant to be educational and shed some light on a complicated chart structure while providing a thesis for how to potentially play it. Standard disclosures: 1. This is 100% my idea. It was not sourced from any other avenue. 2. I am not invested in this company, though I am likely buying shares soon. 3. I am not paid to post content nor do I receive any contributions of any kind. 4. While this is outlining a potential profitable setup, this article is not investment advice. You should do your own due diligence on any company you invest in and apply your own trading strategies. 5. I know nothing about the fundamentals of this company. I suggest doing your due diligence if fundamentals are important to you. 6. Readers should always remember that markets are their own creature made up of millions of individuals and institutions each following some combo of inherent bullishness, inherent bearishness, fundamentals, technicals, stupidity, and pure emotion. Elliott Wave, and specifically Fibonacci Pinball (developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader.net and prominent Seeking Alpha author), merely provide a framework based on the observed price action to date. 7. I know that while my wave outline is based on years and years of data and application from not only me, but some of the best in the game, I also know that markets do not follow a set path and that sentiment can remain irrational far longer than I can remain rational. That is why you MUST consider the alternatives and manage risk appropriately. Know the pivot zones that could lead to the primary path failing. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. My analysis outlines a potential scenario and provides risk assessments for multiple alternate scenarios. My analysis is purely educational.
NYSE:SMHIEducation
by mazag08
Enhanced Parallel Channel Tool with Fib Levels - AVAX Example AVAX on the Rise with TradingView’s Enhanced Parallel Channel Tool 🎯🚀💹 Hey fellow traders! Today, I'm diving with excitement into AVAX and how TradingView's new Parallel Channel tool levels up my (our) analysis. TradingView continues to prove why it's the #1 platform for traders, with new features that keep us ahead of the game! For me personally this extra steps, updates and tools are Very important as they help me do better with analysis and trading. AVAX Example: Right now, AVAX is showing promising action within an ascending parallel channel, with strong support around $24.32 and a secondary layer at $22.97. This channel setup, now enhanced with additional levels on TradingView, is giving us a clearer picture of potential price movements. By activating these extra levels, we get a deeper, more nuanced view of the trend—ideal for pinpointing resistance and support points with precision. The new option to add my favorite Fib 0,618 level is AMAZING! To enable these new levels on your chart: Open the Parallel Channel settings. Go to the Style tab. Check the boxes to activate more levels, allowing you to customize coefficients, colors, thickness, and line styles. With this upgraded tool, I will be targeting $31.79 as the next key resistance level for AVAX. If bullish momentum holds, we could see a push up to the $40 mark at the top of the channel. It’s a promising setup, and I'll be entering this trade with excitement! FXPROFESSOR 202: Personally i have added 0.618 level (on both sides) and you can see how well the chart works. Keep in mind that for this structure (parallel channel) the 0.50 level remains the Key Level on drawing the channel: There is no valid channel unless the middle level does not have a confirmation acting as S/R/S or R/S/R. A massive shoutout to the TradingView team for continually refining these tools, setting industry standards, and empowering us to perform better analysis. This is why TradingView remains the best choice for serious traders everywhere. I am proud to be part of this community, right here and always. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Explore TradingView’s Latest Channel Tool Update: www.tradingview.com
Education
by FX_Professor
1
Mastering Fibonacci ChannelsFibonacci Channel: A Tool for Identifying Potential Trend Levels The Fibonacci Channel is a powerful technical analysis tool that advanced traders use to identify potential support and resistance levels within a trend. This tool is particularly useful in trending markets, such as Forex and equities, to gauge price movement and pinpoint strategic entry and exit points. The Fibonacci Channel consists of a series of parallel lines plotted using Fibonacci ratios (such as 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, etc.). These lines help traders mark key areas within a price trend that could indicate a potential reversal or continuation. How to Use the Fibonacci Channel 1. Identify Start and End Points: Begin by identifying the start and end points of a trend that you want to analyze. 2. Draw the Channel Lines: Next, draw a trendline between the two points. The Fibonacci levels are then plotted as parallel lines above and below this trendline, helping traders visualize potential levels for price to reach or retrace. 3. Interpret the Lines: The plotted Fibonacci levels act as potential areas of support and resistance, providing traders with strategic points for entry or exit. For example, price movement reaching the 0.618 level often suggests a high probability of either reversal or trend continuation. Using the Fibonacci Channel allows you to take advantage of market psychology embedded in these ratios, helping you make more informed decisions in a trend-driven market.
Education
by Market-Analyzer
Short Position on EURCAD: Strong Potential for TP SuccessKey Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Bias: - Eurozone Struggles: Recent economic reports indicate that the Eurozone is facing challenges, including sluggish growth and rising inflation. This could weaken the Euro as investors lose confidence. - Interest Rate Outlook: The European Central Bank is taking a cautious stance on interest rates, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates. This contrast could strengthen the Canadian Dollar against the Euro. - Geopolitical Pressures: Ongoing issues in Europe, such as energy crises and trade disruptions, are creating uncertainty. This instability can further drag down the Euro's value relative to the CAD. I'm focusing on short positions for EURCAD by using probabilities derived from historical data. By analyzing past trends and applying straightforward mathematical rules, I can spot high-probability trading opportunities. This strategy helps me stay disciplined and make informed decisions, reducing emotional trading and increasing my chances of success. Let's dive into the multiple timeframe top-down analysis together: 12M: 1D: Hourly Entry:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
2