USD/CAD BREAKS DAILY RANGE - POTENTIAL LOW RISK TRADEA DAILY CLOSE ABOVE RANGE RESISTANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FURTHER UPSIDE, A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF LONG TERM RANGE EXPOSES 1.2520's
THE 150 DAY MA THAT WAS PREVIOUS RESISTANCE ON 4H CHART HAS BEEN BROKEN, A POTENTIAL MA CROSSOVER TO THE UPSIDE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER - ADDING TO FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL
A RETEST OF PREVIOUS RESISTANCE TURNED SUPPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, A HOLD OF THIS LEVEL WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT - LITTLE RESISTANCE LIES AHEAD OF THE DOLLAR AND FOLLOWS THE LONG TERM BULL TREND OF THE PAIR
Fibonnacci
Potential Bat Pattern Completion on EURAUDPotential bat pattern completion at the 1.618 level as well as previous resistance. We are also in a descending channel and approaching resistance. When price reaches the 1.49000 area, hopefully we see some confirmation; maybe a doji followed by a lower close, or and bearish engulfing candle.
I've gained some confluence by using the Fibonacci retracement tool, swing high to swing low from point A and we the 1.49000 level match up with the 0.764 fibonacci level.
EUR/JPY short target in sight - close of 4H candle criticalUPDATE FROM YESTERDAYS TRADE:
After the sell off this morning EUR/JPY is re testing its 4h trend line which came into play yesterday, fresh lows of 133.90 but failure to close at these levels show potential further downside to my target of 133.50.
RSI is still holding its downwards trend, plus Ichimoku shows that we've had a cloud crossover as well as a TK crossover - both of which are pointing to further downside. Saying that I am skeptical about this signal as the Chickou-span still stays within price as well as being within the previous cloud (giving me the impression that price could potentially hold in this area), a clear close below the 4h trend line and a continuation of RSI/MACD showing further downside will encourage me that my target is still within range.
A break into oversold territory will add further momentum to the downwards move, the close of this latest 4h candle will be critical again.
CADJPY - POTENTIAL SHORT ENTRY - COULD BECOME LONG TERM TRADEMost of the other YEN pairs have recently declined strongly from earlier in the year which in varying degree are being retraced with some possibly still in progress and others might have just completed.
CADJPY - appears to be such pair that might have completed the retracement and could be in very early stage of resumption of the down trend and potentially offer very good short entry that could turn into significant long term short and possibly very strong dynamic as it could be wave C decline from Dec 2015 high
Here is the Technical summary
(A) From Monthly chart (see chart below) we note that:
1. It topped in Dec 2017 at 125 area we had noticeable sell of creating a low in Jan 2009 at 68.5 in a zigzag decline.
2. It has been retracing since and in Dec 2014 completed 66.67% (2/3rd) which is a Gann retracement level.
3. Hit the resistance at median line of the rising pitchfork.
4. Then made initial drop again that has been retraced to just over 61.8%.
(B) In addition to Monthly we note the following from Daily chart:
1. The retracement of the Feb low at 91.70 area has been a zigzag and has retrace 61.8% of the prior decline.
2. second leg of the zigzag could be potential rising wedge which would suggest move the upside is complete or very close to completion
2. Clear price divergence with both RSI and MACD which has bearish cross over.
This setup could potential offer very profitable trade with stop just above the recent high and entry could be located using 4Hr time frame or say break below 98 as conservative entry.
Downside targets could be:
Target 1 = 85 (previous resistance that could become potential support)
Target 2 = 68 (Previous structure low of Dec 2009)
Target 3 = 52 to 50 being 127.2% extension of the move from 125.40 to 68.32
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom).
Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves.
I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does.
Good luck in the markets today traders!
tradeempowered.com