Fibs
FIB your way to SUCCESS! In his historic 13th century novel Liber Abaci (Book of the Abacus), Leonardo Fibonacci brought a special sequence of numbers known as the Fibonacci series to Western civilization. Before we look into how Fibonacci numbers and ratios are used in the financial markets to predict future support and resistance levels, let's have a look at where they came from and how they were created.
A simple mathematical expression that describes a Fibonacci series is given as follows:
F(n+1)=Fn+ F(n-1)
where Fn represents the current number, F(n-1)the previous number, and F(n+1) the next number in the Fibonacci series. Any integer in the Fibonacci series is the sum of its two previous whole numbers, regardless of how it is represented mathematically.
Starting with F(n-1) = 0 as the previous number and Fn = 1 as the current number in the sequence, we can get F(n+1), the next number in the Fibonacci series, by repeating or iterating the process for each new Fn:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, ...
The ratio of the current Fibonacci number to its immediate previous number, that is, the ratio (F(n+1)/Fn) or (Fn/F(n-1)), is a special and somewhat mysterious characteristic of the Fibonacci sequence. When we move farther out into the Fibonacci sequence, this ratio reaches 1.618 (to three decimal places). In truth, it turns out that it doesn't matter which two numbers were chosen to start the series in the first place. It will still hit 1.618 as we proceed along with the list! This unique ratio is referred to as the Golden Ratio, or "Phi" .
We already know that Phi = 1.618 (to three decimal places). Here are some other important ratios related to Phi:
a. (1/Phi) = 0.382
b. Phi x Phi = 2.618
c. (2/Phi)-1 =0.236
d. √ (1/Phi) = 0.786
e. √ Phi = 1.272
The items in this list of Phi‐related ratios are regarded as significant ratios in technical analysis and are used widely by technical traders and analysts.
Fibonacci Retracements, Extensions, and Projections
Fibonacci numbers and ratios are often used to time future market reversals, or as time forecasts, as we can see in the following pages. Before going any further, it's a good idea to define the terms retracement, extension and projections in broad terms.
Price Retracements
A market drop or reversal from a significant high, or a rebound from a significant trough, is referred to as a retracement . The amount of retracement is normally expressed as a percentage of the observed price range, and is calculated by comparing the peak to a previous significant trough or a trough to a previous significant peak. In other words, we have both downside and upside retracements. Popular Fibonacci percentage retracements include:
a. 23.6 percent
b. 38.2 percent
c. 61.8 percent
d. 78.6 percent
Price Extensions
A downside extension is any downside retracement that is greater than 100 percent, that is, the downside retracement extends below the previous significant trough, that is, beyond the observed price range. In similar fashion, an upside extension is any upside retracement that is greater than 100 percent, that is, the upside retracement extends above the previous significant peak that is beyond the observed price range. Popular Fibonacci price percentage extension levels include:
a. 127.2 percent
b. 161.8 percent
c. 261.8 percent
d. 361.8 percent
e. 423.6 percent
f. 461.8 percent
Price Projection
An upside price projection is a projection of an observed price range from a higher significant trough. A 100 percent price projection is simply a one to one (1:1) projection of the observed price range from some new higher significant trough. Similarly, Fibonacci downside price projections use the phi‐related percentages for forecasting potential support in a downtrend.
The main Fibonacci percentages associated with projections are:
a. 61.8 percent
b. 161.8 percent
c. 261.8 percent
d. 361.8 percent
e. 423.6 percent
f. 461.8 percent
Trade with care.
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BTCUSD looking for a C wave down to fib and demand zone supportIt is looking like BTC may be starting the c wave down to finish this correction.
Retraced approximately 85% of the move from highs in a 3 wave structure.
Hit 4 hour supply zone resistance with reaction.
There are 2 fibonacci measured move long setups below, with demand zones within the fib areas.
Also trendline support and recent all time high support within same region.
Looking at 42k-44k buy area, which has a fib target at 65328.
If the c wave goes lower, a larger fib setup is below with possible buy support at 39k-37k all the way to 34k. If this area trades, then the fib target is 67537.
I sold at 53930 looking to buy back at any of these areas.
BTC-USD still waiting to complete measured move fib short setupFib measured move short setup still intact and waiting to hit its target at 41,657.73.
This will be valid until the 61.8% fib is broken at 53,193.92.
Short setup target also should be support for the retest of the recent all time high at 42,000
ETHUSD Nice Short Formed W Formation With Juicy TargetsClear W short formed type spotted on the 12H.
First Target 1880 USD
Second Traget 2040 USD
By drawing fibs from the last top 2043 to 1294 (coinbase prices) we can see that we are currently at 0.5 (1668) the break point of the W
If we break we can expect the price to touch the above targets
if we break 0.5 (1668) we can expect to see some resistance and some kind of pause of the move on the 0.618 (1757) possible we will have a retest of the 0.5 (1668)
Thank you for reading my post, have a great day, wish you all the best !
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Feel free to ask anything in the comments :)
Ethereum conservative long target for this week. I have been posting about this latest trend Ethereum has been meticulously following. Notice all the confluence within the forks both long term and short term. New forecast is conservatively putting the price near 1900 in next few days. Pending any breakdown we could be looking for new highs by mid March!! #HODL!!
QQQ very clear 5 waves down - The 'A' wave may be finished QQQ 5 waves down - the fib extensions measure out cleanly.
Because it appears there have been 5 waves down this implies it is the A wave of an ABC correction.
Now will watch for the B wave up dead cat bounce, before the c wave finishes it and could bring it lower.
There is another more bearish possible count here but wont post that just yet. If this ABC is the pattern that has started it, could play out something like this.
Many other tickers have this similar 5 wave structure down.
Look at the perfect bounce on this monthly candle level which was the monthly open for september 2020.
Volume climax.
Getting into oversold areas.
VIX never really spiked on this first drop...
Bigger fib extension long setup (yellow and red lines) could take this to the green target at 362 as long as the red line holds.
The more bearish elliott wave count would invalidate the fib setup.
TSLA very clear 5 waves down - The 'A' wave may be finished TSLA very clear 5 waves down and measurement levels are clean.
5 waves down is corrective and has 2 possible outcomes, this being the less bearish of the 2 and i lean towards this more conservative count for now.
It looks like tsla has put in an A wave of an ABC correction, and its very possible the A wave down is done.
Looking for a B wave bounce to start soon.
Other tickers as well as the QQQ have very similar 5 waves down.
Price bounced at the 50% fib of an extension fib setup. The longer term target for this fib setup is 1068 as long as 465 doesnt break.
Trendline Support.
Volume climax at lows.
RSI and Stoch oversold.
Watching for the start of the B wave up. Resistance into recent supply levels would make sense possibly up to 840.
Oh no! What should I do!?!?!? Do thisBTC is selling off a local top here. Is this the end? Just a dip? Who cares! Make money while the market decides. I see a lot of people use fib retracements literally anywhere and everywhere. But this instance is a perfect example of when fibs can be useful buy and sell zones. What will occur over the next few weeks is the reduction of volatility in bitcoin. Price will randomly sway up and down testing lower highs and higher lows. As this occurs a relatively probable (over 50% chance) correlation with fib retracement zones is obeyed.
DISCLAIMER: These buy and sell zones are not guaranteed and should not be taken with high leverage or high float.
#LI Reversal Coming Soon?- Li showing life of reversal here but breaking that trendline + Fib plus strong support will just bring more downside.
- But with that being said everything mentioned above plus indicators do show signs of a bounce or possible reversal here.
- Li usually runs along with Nio and Xpev as well can pump along with energy so its something to watch out.
Overall bullish as there is a lot off signals showing strong strength of reversal.