NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom).
Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves.
I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does.
Good luck in the markets today traders!
tradeempowered.com
Fibs
Bearcoin, 4H Gartley and Ending Diagonals.Looks like bitcoin is about to get another big wave down, this should bring us under $200 within the coming days.
On this chart, you can see that we have a pretty nice bearish Gartley pattern (www.investopedia.com). Along with 2 Elliott Wave Ending Diagonals, one is Wave C of a flat (red lines) which I believe to be either part of Wave E or Wave 2, the other is Wave v of C (yellow lines). This makes for a very bearish chart setup, along with the bearish divergences on the AO and AC on multiple time-frames. This is probably a great time to start opening up short positions against the trend to hold for the next few days.
Targets are difficult to make at this point, but the blue arrow shows a good target for the end of Wave 3, if it develops in such a way. Otherwise, we may have our first stop around 1200CNY for Wave 1.
The reason I am changing my count now is because Wave 1/D looks distinctly impulsive, so there is a chance instead of this being a 12H triangle, like my linked charts predicted, it could actually be a Triple Three Correction, ending at Wave C. Either way this is a very bearish set-up with a tight stop-loss. My strategy is to open shorts with stops set and go have fun for the next couple days while bitcoin bites the curb. Remember it helps to keep your eyes OFF the prize ;)
"Do your work, then step back, the only path to serenity" -Lao Tzu
How to properly scale your chartsMany charting tools require a proper scaling of price / time.
This is the method I'm using to scale my charts if needed.
1) Draw a rectangle somewhere on your chart
2) Set it's coordinates to 1:1
So if the price coordinates are 300/350 , set the bar (time)
coordinates to have the same difference of 50 in this case
3) Draw a "Fib Speed Resistance Arc". You can find it in the
second tool bar menu where you also find the Fib Retracement
4) Set it's PRICE coordinates to the same you have set for the rectangle.
For both BAR coordinates you use the smaller number from the rectangle bar coordinates.
Now after you have done that drag one axis (price or time) and move it around.
Watch the upper right corner of the rectangle cross with the fib arcs.
If it crosses with the 1 fib arc, you have a 1:1 scaling.
On the chart example you can see it cross the 3 fib arc so the scaling is 3:1
If you found a nice scaling, right-click the price axis and select "Lock Scale"
so you can zoom in and out of the chart without changing the scaling.
You can try the following scaling ratios:
0.5 / 1 / 1.272 / 1.414 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / ...
also all the X.618 ratios could be usefull. (0.618 / 1.618 / 2.618 / 3.618 / ... )
Let me know how this works out for you and feel
free to leave a comment if something is unclear.
Cheerz : ]
Successful KOD setup - 10$ drop in $888The KOD setup posted for $888 resulted with a 10$ drop in the stock price as it half way towards final target level.
Next 144$..
Maybe some pullback on its way down
Fibs resistance zone - Can it lead to a correction in Yen? This setup is part of the FX Weekly Markets Analysis goo.gl
The WMA setup was based on a Fib extensions confluence zone and a possible daily Wedge pattern.
My targets are up to 200 pips for this trade but it can be an even bigger move if we will see the confirmation signals I'm looking in this trade.
Today's Ourside Bar gives another potential reversal pattern to support this setup
Read the setup and more FX setups in the WMA, posted in my blog goo.gl
Fun With (Time) Fibs, Follow Up.This is just a follow up chart for an earlier idea I had albeit given up on ( ). I've had to update it for the obvious reason that the April 10th bottom didn't hold, thus the time fibs fell out of whack. So this is just the same basic, mirrored time fib study as last time, just built on the latest data available.
PCYC - FEBRUARY FIB RETRACEMENT WITH FIB TIME ZONES A good example of how price and time follow some FIB based patterns. Notice how the 38.2% retracement was achieved in the 3rd FIB time zone. Also note how we are approaching the 5th time zone and bouncing around the 61.8 level.
Future of BitcoinFibonacci numbers (blue vertical lines) and ratios (purple) applied on time.
In case of failure, we break 450, and should expect 260 (last bubbles top)
If we keep climbing up and break top resistance expect rally up to 3000 - 4000.
Infact targets like 10k for the next bubble are unreasonable.
The next bubble will be more like a last breath of the bulls,
before a major correction to around 440 (current bottom level).
A major correction is needed to balance out the
bearish divergence of the last bubble (see weekly RSI etc.)
Only then we will find ourself in a more modest uptrend with
next bubble peaking around 18k at fib number 8 at beginning of 2017.
Elliott Wave Analysis for GBPUSDHello,
I'm looking at the 4H chart for my Elliott Wave counts and we just completed an ending diagonal 5th wave for the entire down swing which started 15th of July.
Now I've bought GBPUSD last night and my long term target is at 1.6785 which is the 38.2 retracement of the whole down move.
If you guys missed the last night rally wait for a retracement to 38.2 in the 1H chart to hop in long again.
Wish you all big cash.
Have a nice week ahead
BTCe Long Awaited 38.2 Fib Target HitHello All,
after an excruciating past six trading days, BTC shook me out of my short position late last night on what was a classic 'head fake' move. Fearful of a winner turning into a looser, I micro managed myself out of a very respectable position only to watch it shortly thereafter go exactly to the original target (UGH!). While there is nothing wrong with booking a profit (+$8 or about 1.25%) I certainly didn't do myself any favors. Interestingly. this is now 6/6 of late (someone has actually been counting on TradingView....lol) and had I just left the original trade on and stuck to my original r/r model, I would be on cloud 9 this AM. I will take comfort in seeing yet another setup play out to its anticipated targets, I will be cross at myself for not acting in my own best interests. Stick to the plan, take the setups, live with the results...lessons are to be continually learned