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Fibs

ES balancing. CAN SANTA SAVE THE DAY?This last big push up on ES has followed fibs and 100SMA again near perfectly. Traded back down nearly exactly to the halfback mark in just a handful of days; however, the move back up was even quicker... Was this so the EOY pushup is that much more powerful? Let the big boys take some profits and then reload? The tell will be if we can hold the 4662ish area. The longer we phaff around here balancing on this fast move up from Monday, the more likely we are to break to the downside. We have momentum on our side still currently, but for how much longer is the question? I think not much longer. We need to see this move up with some sort of oomph this week or I believe we will have to go back and retest the 4543ish 0.618% extension yet again. Ultimately we have the 200SMA looming down below around 4300ish IF we can't get going. Vol profile & POC is nearly identical 3 periods in a row now. 4678-4695 obvious major balancing area. We will keep balancing in this range until we lose 78 on a 30min or above timeframe in which case, 62 is imminent. If we lose that level, it's a decent freefall back to 4609 & ultimately 4543.25. Alternatively, we get a decent close above 95 (30min or above meaningful close), we will try to ATH's again~ major resistance at 4712. We get above that, will slingshot up to 4832.50. Can Santa save the day? Only time will tell. Have a plan for either scenario.
CME_MINI:MESZ2021
by nurseblood
Weber's Law and Fibonacci Numbers: An Exploratory EssayI use Fibonacci numbers rather frequently. In fact, the Fib retracement tool is the first thing I reach for when I start on a new chart. However, explanations for how Fibonacci numbers work have always sound woolly and mystical to me. They work because "man is subject to rhythmical procedure", because there is a Golden Ratio that is hidden behind all things, because Cthulhu says so? However, when we take a close hard look at reality, and actually whip out a ruler and measure things, we find that the Fibonacci sequence is *not* found as-is throughout reality. What we do find are *approximations*. However, this is to be expected for approximations of subjects where the rate of growth is proportional to the current size. And this is to be expected because of Weber's Law. Weber’s law is a psychological law quantifying the perception of change in a given stimulus. The law states that the change in a stimulus that will be just noticeable is a constant ratio of the original stimulus. It has been shown not to hold for extremes of stimulation. And since I will be referencing Mike Cohn's excellent essay (1), I might as well quote his explanation of how Weber's Law apply to Fibonacci numbers: "Imagine instead being handed a 20kg weight and a 21kg weight. They are the same one kg difference as the one and two kg weights. But you would have a much harder time identifying the heavier of the two weights. The difference from one to two kilograms is 100%. You can probably distinguish the weight of items that differ by 100%. The difference between 20 and 21kg, however, is only 5%. You probably can’t tell the difference. (I know I can’t.) And if you could, it would mean you should be able to distinguish between a 1.00 kg weight and a 1.05 kg weight, as that would also be 5%. The values in the Fibonacci sequence work well because they roughly correspond to Weber’s Law. After the two (which is 100% bigger than one), each number is about 60% larger than the preceding value. According to Weber’s Law, if we can distinguish a 60% difference in effort between two estimates, we can distinguish that same percentage difference between other estimates. So, the Fibonacci values work well because they increase by about the same proportion each time." So, given that how we think is affected by how we perceive (2), if Weber's Law applies, the Fibonacci retracement tool works for some of us because it allows us to focus our *imagination by visualising discernible and distinct possibilities within a limited range*. This is why the common criticisms of TA, including Fibs, are valid: 1) it is an uncertain business; 2) one cannot consistently identify where levels should be placed and forecasts are prone to revision; 3) its narrative story-telling power may be stronger than its forecasting power; and 4) levels cannot be verified till they have been tested (ie passed). Let's be humble and accept the general validity of these criticisms; for if TA can be an exact science, let he produce an algorithm which could make anyone rich! That being said, if Weber's Law apply thusly, it simply reaffirms what experience traders often exhort: that it is hard for algorithms to replace (3) the imagination and instincts of an experienced trader! Having said that, if Weber's Law apply thusly, we ought to 1) pay attention to how other industries, eg Mike Cohn's, have adapted Fibonacci numbers to great success and ask ourselves if our approach to Fibs can be adapted accordingly; and 2) maybe more importantly, reconsider our values, assumptions, beliefs and expectations of those tools we use that are based on Fibs. (1) www.mountaingoatsoftware.com (2) www.frontiersin.org (3) "Replace", not "aid".
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaBravoCharlie77
14
BTCUSD Daily decision pointsThe chart is marked with three decision points. Two CCI decisions are already short. I had "hoped" price would turn north again around 62,000. I am aa bit concerned now. If price drops thru -38.2% I'll be sidelined. There are many factors upcoming that you should watch. Generally speaking, markets are positive between Thanksgiving and Year end. But we have a week before that, which may be lower due to options and positioning. Another thing is "proofing day" Jan 3, when some crypto owners may be required to have notification given to the government that they own crypto. I am ignorant about this. another possible effect on price could be a "short squeeze" on companies which have borrowed cryptos at very high interest rates, and may be forced to pay back at much higher prices than they had planned. I have NO idea your best course of action. Heads up and best wishes
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by nicker
1
SPX. How scary or simple is this, "Algo" "science" "Coincident"!We are just setting on top of 50 % Fibs retracements !!! - Fibonacci retracements are based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century. Fibonacci's sequence of numbers is not as important as the mathematical relationships, expressed as ratios, between the numbers in the series. - In technical analysis, a Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a peak and a trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. - Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels. -A Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
19
Predict What's Next... My Guess?🤔💭🚀My guess is after a little consolidation in the triangle BTC will drop back to about 55500 for the least and at the worse 50000 from here. Then if you scroll up the chart you will see all the key stops from here up to 60K. I'm not gonna get into all the numbers just look at the chart.... its late! Good Night I will see my Risk Takers in the AM! What a better day to talk about $HUT. Lets hike these BTC coins out the roof so we can get into some of these crypto stocks! So we had a gap from a few weeks back when the market dipped. Well we filled the gap and now have opportunity on the upside. We are definitely bullish here alone on the side of crypto, which could only mean good things for $HUT. According to the Fibs this stock should have a break to the 1.618. Pay attention to the direction of BTC and follow the leader. Mining stocks will 50x-100x when BTC 10x's (roughly). Also my advice to you is to get familiar with crypto stocks and companies investing in them they are all about to explode! THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! THIS INFORMATION IS FOR EDUCATIONAL AND ENTERNTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by Riskitpaid
Post COVID Bull Market Fib ConfluencesSo as i was getting prepped for my weekly video i created this chart and figured i'd share. It's a fib analysis our entire posrt COVID bull market mainly focusing on major pivot lows and the top we printed a few weeks ago. The rectangles and fib confluence zones, or zones in which one could expect to find support based on the Fibonacci sequence. I mainly focused on .618 retracements as well as 1.618+ extensions. We've already found our way through one of them labeled in red, and Friday had wicked the second zone labeled in yellow. The first level was our first real support area before losing it last week. Fib wise it consisted of three .382's, a .5, and a .618. The one we're currently bouncing from consists of two .5's, one .618, and a .786. This chart is not suggesting a retest of the COVID lows, just a pure analysis of the fibs i have on the chart. Normally i add the addition of trend based fibs and work of off the intraday timeframes as well, but for ease of use this is only fib retracements and their subsequent extensions form major pivot lows to the top printed 09/02. Obviously this is to be used with other forms of technical analysis including volume profile and just standard price action analysis including support/resistance. More often than not you'll find that they all have a tendency to land at or near the same levels. If you're not familiar with the fiboonacci sequence or do not implement it into your day to day work cycle i highly recommend it.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
ADA will top out at 3.86By front running where a potential 0.618 fib pullback would come to on ADA we can set a target of 3.86 if the 0.618 bounce will be at the last support zone. Pure speculation though this has worked in the past and may help to build more confluence to try and get a nice target to sell at. The smart contracts will be a sell the news event as the demand for the token will be low compared to coins like BNB and Solana as it takes time for the humans to feel comfortable to trust a new platform that has not been battle tested live.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by Mystic_Mystery
4