BITCOIN - So, where to from here? Fundamentalist macro view!Fundamentalist macro view
In a macro sense, we believe that Bitcoin will be able to push for a new high as the latest price action is indicating a symmetrical triangle. This signal accumulation is still occurring. Moreover, BTC broke the $10k level, increasing its chances to visit $12.3k - $13.9k region. In general, any downside price action from the current price is more likely to be seen as a healthy retracement, not a reversal in trend. Another bullish indicator that historically finalized the end of past bear markets, is the famous Golden Cross moving average indicator that is currently occurring on the daily chart. Simply put, the golden cross is a bullish technical indicator in which a short-term Moving Averages (MAs) crosses above a long-term MAs. In higher time-frames, it is often utilized to determine whether a macro trend has shifted. This an event that has not happened since 2015, when BTCs price was $300. As we all know, the price of $BTC skyrocketed (roughly 66x to 20k) the last time a golden cross happened on the daily chart. It is crucial to understand that these indicators serve as confirmation of possible trend changes and should be utilized in conjunction with other technical and fundamental market indicators that exist in the space before executing any trades. Nonetheless, the golden cross bolsters the current bullish sentiment in the market. Despite there having been much more profitable weeks in the history of crypto, as of the time of writing, bitcoin is in a holding pattern at stuck in range $9k - 11k. While it may seem easy to conclude that the leveling off in volume signals a rapidly declining interest in cryptos flagship digital asset, we beg to differ.
At the height of the bull market late in 2017, 24 hour trading volume for BTC peaked at the reduced levels were seeing now after a monstrous increase in trading took daily totals well over the $23 billion mark. Many of us vividly remember the parabolic runs BTC was prone to in the past. However, this jump, though small-by-comparison, was more meaningful than it was valuable precisely because of its timing deep into the worst bear market in crypto history. The historic rise in volume and bitcoins subsequent rally confused many an observer not least because there didnt seem to be a clear narrative behind the move. To find likely answers, one neednt far away. We made a case for our theory that institutional accumulation was not only a thing - but has progressed far beyond what most realize. Diar.co recently went live with hard-data backing up claims that institutional products and trading volume have been steadily growing behind the scenes of a seemingly stagnant crypto market. Media coverage from both crypto and mainstream platforms of the latest BTC price surge has also culled interest from retail investors who have mostly sat out the nearly 1.5 - year bear market. Google searches for bitcoin reached their highest levels since the glory days of 2017 and the subsequent relief rally of spring 2018. Far from offering a conclusion about the direction of bitcoin in the next few days, all of these indicators taken together form a meta-level view that motivates us to take advantage of the opportunities the crypto market seems prepared to offer us. ts beginning to look like we might be able to call the $12-13k range home, but lets not jump to conclusions, lest we become homeless. But if you zoom out and take a wide-lens view, there is lots to be excited about. Bitcoin is beating yet another bear market that many naysayers predicted would put an end to the currency experiment started a decade ago by Satoshi Nakamoto. As written by Friedrich Nietzsche well before bitcoins time, - That which does not kill us, makes us stronger! -. With each passing day, bitcoins name recognition deepens and a new generation of tech-literate youth grows of age to embrace the digital currency. The curious openness expressed toward bitcoin by younger generations bodes well for cryptos potential to reach a mainstream adoption phase in the coming years. It may not happen tomorrow, but bitcoin and the rest of crypto can definitely do with a head start to prepare for the spotlight down the road. As the technology matures along with the audience that will eventually embrace it, we might be headed for the perfect storm - a confluence of circumstances that will prove that digital assets really are a multi-trillion dollar asset class. One clear example of the maturation of blockchain technology is the Bitcoin networks near ATH daily transaction levels combined with near ATL transaction fee levels. While it may not seem like anything is happening with BTC from a development standpoint, that couldnt be further from the truth as revealed by blockchain analysis of bitcoin TXs. When the late 2017 bull market engaged its thrusters, bitcoin famously left users with unbelievably long wait times and fees due to record levels of network congestion. It was an event that shook blockchain ecosystem investors as they realized that price was running far ahead of fundamentals. The extended bear market has cooled prices off considerably (to say the least), giving fundamentals like those just mentioned time to catch up and set the stage for the next bull market. Additionally, the clear signs of accumulation currently in play mean that bitcoin is not only surviving, but its thriving. Given a little more time and an injection of financialization from parties like Bakkt, Fidelity, we believe that now is the moment for taking a serious look at a restful BTC before it revs up again.
Billion Dollar Companies Utilizing Blockchain.
Forbes published a list of companies that are implementing blockchain technology with minimum revenues or a valuation of $1 billion dollars. Amongst the list, there are multiple traditional large corporations in the technology, finance, and supply chain industries such as Amazon, BNP Paribas, and Foxconn. Some notable blockchain / crypto, specific that made the list include Coinbase, BitFury, and Ripple. A Fifth of Institutional Players are Invested in Crypto. You may have noticed that Fidelity Investments loves cryptocurrency. With over $2.46 trillion in assets under their care, its reasonable to say that Fidelity knows a thing or two about where and when to be invested. Despite the bear market, Fidelity went ahead with crypto trading and custody products while executives at the company repeatedly went on the record to profess their love for the emerging digital asset class. Recently, Fidelity published the results of a comprehensive survey regarding the amount of exposure to held by institutional investors. Their report suggests that at least 22% of institutional buyers have at least some exposure to crypto currencies, like bitcoin, and that the next five years will see a huge influx of additional investment by major financial players. Apart from technical analysis perspectives, there are several bullish fundamental factors worth considering which are likely fueling the current surge. Fidelity Investment is Going Live With Crypto Trading Platform. Previously, Fidelity executives indicated that the platform was not only ready but that they were eager to set the platform loose upon a select network of loyal accounts. Major retailers like Starbucks, Whole Foods, Nordstrom, and Home Depot are now accepting cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH using a payment processor called - Flexa -. The partnership marks a watershed moment for cryptocurrency as a payment method and could well represent a turning point in the industry. With Bakkt and Fidelity Investments inching closer every day to launching their game-changing products while people around the world begin to give crypto a second look, the sky is truly the limit - as clichè as that may seem. Bitcoins growing price reflects its maturation as both a network and a currency while its increasingly going mainstream in the finance world.
So, where to from here?
We believe that $9300 - 9k is an essential pivotal support and should hold in the near-term as price consolidates. If we break below the $9k level, expect a continued downside that could sweep the low $8500 -7500, and potentially lower. The point is, if bitcoin is going to continue its current run, buyers will need to start showing up in these higher reaches. Without that, price will consolidate here awhile before deviating from the trend weve enjoyed for the last few weeks. The why of that scenario rests with a significant development in Bitcoin FA (fundamental analysis) - the VanEck SolidX ETF decision was just delayed again. Without a major FA driving force like a potential ETF decision hiding around the corner, BTC price is fated by the charts. Sure, there are several factors in the distant horizon for Bitcoin like the Bakkt platform, another potential ETF, and the halving next year, but those are macro-view events with long time frames. In the here and now, were gearing up for what we believe is an impending alt season that may blow us all away with its force. Thats the hope - but its hope being lent to us by the charts. Essentially, we believe that the altcoin market has reached a macrocycle bottom and is ready for a substantial move to the upside. First and foremost amongst altcoins is, of course, Ethereum. We saw record trading volume on ETH pairs. As you may know by now, volume precedes price so, Ethereum will most likely lead the altcoin charge. Were positioned for that possibility and will update you further as the situation develops. SEC Puts Another Delay on Bitcoin ETF Decision In a repeat of all of last year, the SEC has again delayed deciding on the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal. The move was widely expected, and its doubtful that anyone was counting on approval this time around. Now that we think about it, its a little bit funny that the VanEck SolidX ETF delay has become a quarterly tradition in the cryptocurrency world. Every time a decision draws near, BTC decides to stretch its legs a bit. The new deadline for approval, rejection, is October 18, and at that point, theyll be all out of delays. Now they need to send a response. Approve or reject!!! After nearly two years of waiting, were finally getting close to decision time. If products by the likes of Fidelity and Bakkt are live and stable well before then, they should go a long way towards convincing the SEC that an approval is sound. Keeping an eye on crypto markets is hard work. The market never sleeps, requiring constant attention and unwavering focus from analysts, given how consistent and dedicated they are to keeping community moving with the market, and not against it.
Lets Play
God bless you!
