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Fifthwave

One Last Push to Double Top?The look and also feel of this latest weakness in price is very much like a fourth wave. Shallow pullbacks and choppy PA. This monster should sell in September, but an odd statistical curiosity is that most ATH occur in... September, typically in the first week. So the first few days of this new trading month could well be bullish. Notice the relative strength in RTY/RUT... bullish on 9/01. A run for 4600 is possible. Not sayin it will happen, but a blowoff top is characteristic. September will surely bleed, but we bears should prepare for a last squeeze before the dam breaks.
TVC:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
3
EURUSD Moving Into A Fifth Wave Ahead of PowellMarkets are not moving much. They slowed down after some dollar weakness over the last two trading days. We see US stocks coming down from resistance ahead of Powell today, so it appears that investors are waiting on more details before they may position themselves for a breakout. Will Powell be hawkish or more neutral with comments is the question. I think he may not give us any real bias yet, ahead of US CPI data this Thursday. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see EURUSD coming higher after a nice pullback to 1.05 in the last few weeks, as we in past updates. A sharp and strong recovery l suggests that correction is finished and fifth wave in play. The ideal upward projection for a fifth wave is at 1.0850 so upside can be limited this month. Be aware of a correction.
by ew-forecast
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KRAKEN:LTCUSDLong
by RektMyMom
1
Where will this bull run end?Utilizing Elliot Wave theory we can derive a 5 wave pattern that gives us two targets using two methodologies. The first most simple is to take the magnitude of wave 1 and project it from the beginning of wave 5 which gives us a target of about 3999. The second methodology uses a combination of points from waves 3 and 4 to project several Fibonacci levels and the nearest equates to about 4005, this is the level to watch very closely b/c if we break it there could be a lot more upside and if it acts as resistance we could be in for a correction. It should also be noted that MFI on SPY futures reached a maximum of 68.97 in the past several months and I believe we are at about 66 now, whether the 69 level breaks will be interesting, Please leave any comments and questions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TNasr
How Many Degrees of the Same ED Pattern is DJI Completing Now?I found at least three different timeframes that sport the same basic fractal - all of which are completing nearly simultaneously. Wonder why there are moments in the day when you feel like the market just collapsed for an instant, but then somehow survived? It is because each of these patterns of varying degree needs to complete before we can essentially drop vertically lower to 13,000. Maybe even lower. We are talking about completing at least three different patterns; two of which are immensely powerful at individual completion. I believe both of these completed Wave 3 simultaneously last February, hence the selloff. That's right, I said it - Covid has likely nothing to do with the selloff last year, insofar as it played the role of convenient "trigger." I'll tell you what: if we see a similar selloff occur in the coming sessions or weeks and we have no tangible trigger, then instead of calling it an arbitrary "bubble burst" I'd ask that you'd at least consider the confluence of extremely powerful waves ending at once. Oh yes - this is just the first three I found. I also recall the same ED pattern forming on the hourly, as well as the 5-minute. Soon, there will be no more timeframes to complete the fractal on and then it should be something akin to a nuclear explosion. I wouldn't know though, I've never seen anything like this. -TriggerPig DJCFD:DJI SPCFD:SPX NASDAQ:NDX RUSSELL:RUT CBOE:DTX
TVC:DJIShort
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
19
SandP in Flat Wolfe Wave End Game: Bear Move IncomingSeveral contributors have proposed Wolfe Models. This move formed a flat pattern rather than a rising channel. This flat emulates a measured move 'flagpole.' We're sitting on the cap at top of flagpole IMO. MFI gone in half, volume sparse. Typical of Wolfe waves is the time elapsed in 1>2 = 3>4, as is clearly seen here. Enjoy the last gasp of this mad rally... Breakdown should occur with similar periodicity; expect on/about 4-7 Jan 21. NB: ABCDE denotes the Wolfe wave. Some authors have drawn it from the Covid Crash. Started here from June Swoon. Bear move can take any form. Likely to be an impulsive correction, given the monster rally of 2020. Here's a link on variations of Wolfe. This is an educational post not intended to be investing advice; trade at your own risk: GLTA! tradingstrategyguides.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DaddySawbucks
12
Heading for a 5th wave on S&P 500If we count waves according to Elliott Wave theory, we might see a final 5th impulsive wave going up to the $3000s. Since we had a 3rd wave extension, the amplitude of the 5th wave should be around 100% of the first wave. This coincides with the double top that formed at $3123 beginning of March. On the other hand, there is the $3000 level that got many price action since July 2019 that might stop the progression of the fifth wave. My guess is that the fifth wave will come in the $3000-3123 range and then reverse to the $2930 pivot level. If we break through that pivot, we might see a corrective swing down to the 2009 support . If this level of $2930 holds, we might consolidate and see higher highs.
TVC:SPXLong
by gmarignier
Sand Path to Ultimate ATH 4K: Road Map for 2020 and BeyondPure WAG and sheer speculation. Absolutely NOT investing advice! This post is strictly for your amusement only; intended purely to entertain, so enjoy! NB: Near-term some sort of correction is due, index trading >2SD above 50DMA, RSI overbought near 80; absent a Fed Hike on 28/29 Jan, expect a modest pullback. The monster break of Feb 2018 is unlikely to repeat now without adverse Fed rate action, but ofc anything is possible in this nutty market- not for faint of heart! In 2019 every correction started on the day of the Fed meetings, in May, July and September... IMO history likes to repeat, seems like a good bet. Could start now, from Friday's close at 3330! The down move could be a 6-10% correction, deeper is doubtful, but possible; it's a 4th wave and these tend to be tricky trading. Expect wild choppy swings like we saw in August- whipsawing, don't get your hands cut off! Save ur cash for Wave 5, it will be a terrific long play! After this move completes, what comes after is anybody's guess, but this market has shown a proclivity for double tops, IMO is likely to do so again; pre-election jitters likely may start a deeper correction in Sep/Oct. We had a Bullish October in 2019; a Bearish one in 2020 is a likely consequence IMO. Beyond the election: entirely depends on the Donald pulling off re-election; as an incumbent with enormous cash to burn, his chances are better than 50-50 IMO; I expect him to win it, when he does, markets will rocket to the Moon- the 2.618 Fibo extension is certainly within grasp up around 4128! Again, this post is pure Wild-Assed-Guessing, the tail WAGs the dog, GLTA! Be careful, be cautious, be prudent at this juncture! -DS
TVC:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
52
ZRXUSDT BullishZRX/USDT is in a strong Uptrend and still pushes the price up. In the chart we can see the lower trend line, which ZRX often respected and always bounced UP. I marked the impulse motion of the ZRX with five waves, and we should actually go to complete the fifth wave. ZRX is still in the tracking phase for us because I want to wait for confirmation of increasing movement. If he breaks the Key zone and keeps this value, it will be a bullish signal for me and I immediately enter the trade. We will buy it in the Re-buy zone worth 0.3$ to 0.29$. Take Profit Zone at 0.38$ to 0.39$. If ZRX breaks the bottom trend, we set the Stop Loss to 0.28$.
Long
by Tradify_Labs
Rally done or just pullback? Maybe bear trap: too soon to short?Caution is in order, this rally has faked us out twice already, looking near pivot, then jumping higher. Bears been expecting a double bottom formation and still are waiting. On the daily chart Sand P has an Elliott Wave bullish impulse form developing, rather than the ABC many contributors have suggested. The segment labeled (3) is quite a bit longer than the (1). In an ABC countertrend, if these were A & C segments, we'd expect them to be nearly identical in length; these are not, and (3) has both broken above the 0.50 Fibo and exceeded the previous downtrend low price of higher order (1) from October, violating EW principles for an ABC. If this pans out, we can expect a Fifth rally wave to touch the 0.618 Fibo. Today's price turned back from the TL reaching back to 3 Sep. A lower order TL from Nov suggests a Fifth wave could get to near 2712 price. Any positive news in a market pounded with worrisome tweets will do it. The EOD pivot on 1/22 also implies a bullish undertone. Market index has closed the gap up from Friday's enthusiastic runup. Was this an exhaustion gap? It may have just a bit left to run, perhaps within 2-3% of the rally top now. Still too early to short IMHO. In my other idea on Dow I suggested the TL and Fibo both coincide at price $25040, just a bit over 2% above today's close. Let's see if the bulls can get it up there. As always, this isn't advice, just another crackpot idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA! PS I labeled this idea "Neutral" as it is a study of price near a pivot, which may have come, or may still be yet to come soon.
SP:SPX
by DaddySawbucks
16
US 30 Entering Bear Market?Chart says all. So many contributors with great ideas about what we might expect. Just my 2c. It never goes straight down but makes short squeeze traps along the way. The runup to 24k was a terrific squeeze, rejected at 0.50 Fibo- exactly. Be cautious, short the rallies, don't plunge as it swings wildly and can squeeze any day. Remember- gaps tend to get filled! It's a 5th wave- might give us an M-shaped pattern with a second bounce from the 50% retrace level- expect unpredictable squeezes. GLTA! As always, this isn't advice, just an idea; trade at your own risk!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
5
ADA Elliott Wave analysisADA has currently completed 5 subwaves of the third wave. The RSI is displaying bearish divergence, where the price goes higher, but the RSI does not. This could indicate that ADA is losing strength even though the price is increasing. This is further supported by the declining volume and rising wedge pattern, which show that the amount of buyers are decreasing. Possible shorts could target the 0.382 fib regions. A drop in price in wave 4 can also provide an opportunity to load up on longs for the fifth wave. The 0.682 to 0.5 fib region is strong support as it is just above the previous high. Elliott Wave rules dictate that wave 4 cannot retrace past wave 1, except by a wick in leveraged markets. On the bigger picture ADA is almost complete a larger scale fifth wave. Besides a fifth wave extension, which could very well happen if Bitcoin surges, ADA will soon make a larger correction after a short term rally, possibly dropping 20% from its local high.
BINANCE:ADAUSDShort
by aoeuaoeu