Filbfilb
Bitcoin: 12 month forecastThrough 2019 Bitcoin has once again proven to be the best performing asset available to the masses, far surpassing the expectations of even the most bullish commentators in the space.
A staggering recovery from lows around $3.2k of 2018, accelerated through to highs of 13.8k - around 4x to its peak.
After such an impressive move to the upside, one which fast approaches the previous all-time high after an 85% correction, it would be reasonable to expect that some selling pressure would be faced. This was seen particularly at the 61.8% text book short interest level, which is where the breaks were put on this run to date. I haven’t shown this on the chart because i refer to 61.8% in a different way later, but the same thing happened back in the previous bear market recovery.
Some other things to note - we hit a bottom in this cycle and bounced from it quicker than in previous cycles. This is likely to be as a result of more interest & awareness in the halvening. I have discussed the importance in this and the role i think it will play on creating a floor price above $6500. With additional fiat onramps and media & political attention and a general aura of interest, bitcoin appears to be gathering momentum from an infrastructure and credibility point of view. Whether the credibility leads to acceptance is another matter, but i suspect that it is inevitable.
As ive mentioned in some modelling shared on twitter, the combination of accelerated demand / interest / awareness, married across a limited supply, creates the perfect storm for bitcoin to achieve much higher prices and the opportunity for them to be achieved rather quickly. This is of course assuming there is no major black swan event (likely being USA, EU, G8 bans bitcoin.
So to summarise, im of the view that bitcoin has the infrastructure, the interest and the fundamentals to go higher, assuming there is no major banning event.
On to the TA. Typically bottom-new tops are found by rounding off the previous bear market, reason being that the down trend goes through previous support and once the bottom is found it generally becomes resistance on the way back up. Bitcoin has done a great job of destroying resistance on the way up, but as i mentioned its reached a technical level where its likely to run out of steam and into the face of the market shorters.
I am of the opinion that the bottom is in and we are in the smart money / stealth phase of the new cycle (see attached charts however, looking historically bitcoin likes to do a few things - parabolas break down and retrace at least 61.8% of their height, and typically this bounce occurs where there has been really strong buying interest on the way up. We can see that this occurred around the 6k level in 2017, with an engulfing candle on the weekly - we have seen this on the way up in 2019 and it is also at the 61.8% retracement level. This is also the 1.18 off the top. I.e. I’m of the view that bitcoin will correct into the 7ks.
Another thing Bitcoin likes to do, is its time from the top to the bottom typically is half the time it takes before a new all-time high is reached. I am therefore theorising that we will see the same, or similar as he have done previously.
We probably need to consolidate for some time before the halving.. Perhaps move sideways as i have illustrated, but ultimately im suggesting that we will pushing for new all-time highs earlier in 2020, at the time of the halving. I suspect that this will invoke a new bull market - as absurd as it sounds.. people like buying new all-time highs ; for confirmation. so ultimately that’s it;
- Retrace from here to 61.8%
- Consolidate the remainder of the year 7.5k-10k
- Exit rounding bottom / Cup and handle Summer 2020 following a "sell the news" event when halving occurs.
- Bull market cycle to follow thereafter
See below for previous charts referenced herein and follow on twitter for more updates etc.
Remember to like this if you found it of use and get accumulating that corn!
Best - filb
Bitcoin sloping Inv H&S Fractals 2018v2019Two recent important pivot points for bitcoin in recent times - both with immediate differing outcomes, but ultimately both leading to the Inv . H&S taregt being reached.
Im now leaning to the more bullish 2018 after the breakout yesterday.
Drop a like / Follow on twitter.
filb
Trading Bitcoin - Tame the beast & Manage your emotions. Despite Bitcoin going ballistic, it does not mean we cannot approach this market with a calculated approach and avoid any panic.
We have some clear objectives and targets as discussed on the chart.
No need to panic here, develop an intermediate plan and stick to it to avoid panic.
Let me know what you think will happen next.
Follow on twitter etc for more updates.
Good luck
filb
BTC: DOES THE OBV TELL US WHERE WE ARE IN THE CYCLEI recently shared a post which illustrated how to use the OBV (attached - please review) which showed us how and why it is useful.
In short, it combines cumulative price direction AND volume and helps illustrate where critical relative volumous price action takes place, relative to that which has taken place before it.
In this chart we can see that once Bitcoin bottomed in 2015, only the final run up back to the pre-capitulative level saw Bitcoin's OBV retrace 38% off the highs. That run, took Bitcoin back about 24% of the way back to its ATH which was around $400.
Should Bitocin continue its current run and get another volume kicker, throguh volume or other, it woudl indicate that Bitcoin could ultimately break back across $6k.
The reason why i think this could be possible is for the following reasons:
1) Due to the almighty fomo that would come about when people realise that they cannot by lower or even at the 3$k level they were at.. im expecting disbelief in the comments and that is just confirmation for me. I.e. this would cause the most upset and confusion.
2) Cycles are shortening because people know what the halvning hype does to price, which we have seen with LTC already.
3) The role volume plays is largly being overlooked.
4) Mt Gox coins are now likely to be locked up for future years.
5) i would like to win my bet with Lucid investments / Hyperwave before the end of the year :))) (personal bias)
Anyway, an interesting observation so i thought i would share it - there is a lot of resistance above, but i wouldnt count out a mega wick to the upside.
If you like this analysis you can follow me on twitter and my other work. same handle.
Bitcoin Market Cycle: Final LegBitcoin's Market cycle - One of the most defined textbook examples of the market cycle cheat sheet we may ever see.
The chart is self explanatory showing the cycles we went through and the final phase we are now completing - Return to the mean (which is the center line of the pitchfork using candle sticks)
Well this is how i will remember it anyway:)
I will update this chart in due course.
filb
BITCOIN: TETHER FUD.Ok so this is an unusual unforseen scenario.
This is how i plan to play it at this very early stage, preempting the information.
I have gone to cash (actual fiat not USD) and i am expecting a sell off on the BTCUSD fiat pair.
The reason why is because those people holding tether will want to hold fiat while there is risk in tether.
The way this will be achieved is likley to be via buying crypto, moving, and selling into USD.
This therefore means that there is downside risk on the BTCUSD pair. I expect the BTC USDT pair and all other crypto-USDT pairs to move higher as the coins are demanded.
This may be what is neeeded to retest the 200DMA / generally backtest the breakout.
I would like to catch a bid between the 61.8% retracement and the 78.6. I might scalp around on any opportunities.
Hopefully this is all just noise and it blows over, but i thought i would share my immediate short term thoughts re risk mitigation.
Lets share thoughts below.
If you like this idea, appreciate the like => if you want to get more regular updates, follow me on twitter.
BITCOIN: ROCKET FUEL LOADEDBitcoin continues to show signs of strength.
The Short positions at Bitfinex are now higher than those that preceded the breakout which took us from 4-5k
The Long positions at Bitfinex are now the same as those that preceded the breakout which took us from 4-5k
Bitcoin continues to grind up, without sign of there being any leveraged positions being taken up which implies to me that there is aggressive spot buying in this market, which those shorting it cannot stop.
This leads us to a senario where there will be short positions heavily exposed - aound 6k shorts are underwater and at risk of being liquidated.
BULLISH.
Drop this a like if you want to support this work and you can find me on twitter with the same handle for additional content.
BITCOIN: THE BULLBitcoin is once again knocking at the door of $5k.
Most of the commentary is on the chart but we now also have a clear inverse head and shoulders bottom.
There may be volatility ahead - the bulls must flip previous resistance now into support and attempt to stay about across the $4055 at finex ($3950 everywhere else).
A failure here will likely see us backtest the 50% / 61.8% fibs c.3600s but i see the risk being for the bears to the upside.
Bullish.
I am reposing this chart as it was blocked by Tradingview last week because i linked to my twitter account.
Drop it a like if you want to support my work.
Cheers
BITCOIN: KEY LEVELS TO WATCHWhen you look at the whole picture, bitcoin seemingly has Demand being > Supply in the 3k range.
Granted we only have two periods now to look at but the ranges are aligned in terms of where there are clear areas of support and resistance.. aswell as those where price simple carves through.
A Bitcoin higher high above $4250 would imply a void in volume through price and a fast move to 5k.. this is looking just historically, not even considering the most recent breakdown from 6k and subsequent consol.
This is just an idea of course. But i am paying personal interest to $4250+
Good luck. Check my bio for twitter handle.
best
filbfib
BTCUSD: IF SHE IS A BULL THIS IS WHAT WE NEED TO SEEWould like to see a quasi Inverse H&S form here, finding support $3400 - $3500 at key fibs, which would also complete the Adam and Eve.
Volume Profile is not really there unfortunately
Fail to find support; its bad news for the bulls and we will retest lows, certainly $3200s and failing a strong reaction we will go deep into $2000s.
BITCOIN UPDATE: IF IN DOUBT - STAY OUT!As described on the chart, we are caught in no mans land, not very good place to be trading, particularly when you are battling bots.
Much easier to trade the outcome of the break rather than try to second guess it.
Im still overall bearish but aware we may need to go higher before we go lower.
It will be brutal to go up towards 4k and then fall straight through 3k. Keep that senario in mind though.
best,
filbfilb
