Finance
$IEF Bond Rally FadingDespite the market chatter of rate cuts by the Fed at the end of July, it seems that one area of the market that is not paying much attention are US 10-Year Treasuries ($IEF as a proxy).
After posting an "Evening Star" pattern on July 3rd, US Treasuries have been selling off since. As can be seen in the attached chart, the RSI has been showing negative divergence in relation to recent price rises, indicating that investor sentiment is fading, despite prices marching to record highs. Furthermore, the price is fighting hard to stay within the FR100 at $110.40, indicating that it could fall out of this area any day now.
Going forward, it appears that the rally in US 10-Year Treasuries is fading, and caution investors to take heed in this space
$XAR - Clear for TakeoffOne area investors and traders should take a look at is the Aerospace and Defense industry ($XAR as proxy), which is currently the best performing industry year-to-date (as of July 5th), generating 28.59%.
On a technical basis, $XAR is trading above all three EMAs, indicating strong price action at the moment. Further, its RSI as been steadily trending higher since the end of June, indicating strong market sentiment in this industry. Further, on a global macro basis, the industry has been helped by a rise in geopolitical tensions around the globe, with the most recent being tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Western powers.
If this trend continues, $XAR could hit $107.81 in a few weeks.
EURUSD Weakness Targets 1.1181/15 Zone
EURUSD weakness targets 1.1181/15 zone as it expects further weakness. Support comes in at the 1.1200 where a violation will turn risk to the 1.1150 level. A break below here will target the 1.1100 level. Further down, support sits at the 1.1050. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, on the upside, resistance resides at 1.1250 level with a break through there opening the door for further upside towards the 1.1.1300 level. Further up, resistance comes in at the 1.1350 level where a violation will expose the 1.1400 level. All in all, EURUSD expects more weakness in the days ahead.
XPD/USD Palladium 1578.418 VS 1311.485 Trade Setups Hello Traders, XPD/USD Palladium 1578.418 VS 1311.485
Blue: Developing a Bigger Corrective / Consolidation / Continuation Pattern
for further upside movement breaking all time high's 1578.418 / 1311.485 VS 1827.393 / 1705.807.
Yellow: Looking for smaller continuation / corrective pattern for current impulse to break 1578.418.
Red: Red: Consolidation / Correction / Continuation For more downside Breaking 1311.485 VS 1174.297 / 1057.763
XAU/USD Gold 1436.069 VS 1384.204 Trade SetupsHello Traders, XAU/USD Gold 1436.069 VS 1384.204
Blue: Developing a bigger consolidation / corrective pattern
to continue the upside movent.
Yellow: Looking for buy setups / flags / small corrective patterns, to Break 1436.069 Long vs 1468.095.
Green: looking for ( Blue ) pattern completion and rejections 1384.204 / 1366.235.
Red: Consolidation / Correction / Continuation For more downside vs 1334.407 / 1321.956.
SCHW IdeaSCHW broke negatively from a symmetric triangle to finish the 5th wave of the A wave. I am targeting the $35 region because it is confluent between a major resistance zone , the .5 fibonacci retracment level, the 1-1 extension from the 3 eave, and the-.236 retracment from the 3 wave. Target is the entire B wave.
USA vs China / TRADE WAR $USDCNH ... Cup & Handle pattern right there in the bigger picture.
We then got a rising wedge shorter term. Why? Look at the #TradeWar and it makes perfect sense. Wait for confirmations and you got a safe setup right there ! The Trade War is going on and it´s getting harder and harder every week for both the USA and China. So guess where this pair might go?
Look at the very least for a 1:1 ratio or much more.
#Forex #Trading #FX #Finance #Money #Investing
A Global Storm ahead?Well here is my view on TVC:SPX ...
The market was pricing in a rate cut by the FED, but Chair Powell didn’t cave in. So the market started to sell-off and broke the uptrend which started since the beginning of the year. This could be the start of a much severe reversal similar to the one we saw back in October 2018, when the FED also disappointed the market by staying hawkish. The market sentiment can easily be manipulated back to the bulls’ side if the Trump administration strikes a good trade deal with China, or pressures the Fed for an immediate rate cut. But without any government intervention, we could easily revisit the 200 SMA or even the December lows.
As I see it we already made a DT AND Quasimodo pattern on the monthly which you can clearly see and which happened the last time clearly 2007 and we all know what happened after the "retest"...
So EVERYTHING in the economy looks like we are right before the next big crisis but markets can stay irational far longer than we can stay liquid financially, so it could also range for months now or even push higher because of Trmps politics.
Whats most likely to happen that Trump and the FED balance this market until the next election and on the montly we can see a range within this DT and neckline/break.
IF we break even the previous break again it´s over for the economy for the next few years. SO let´s see how we roll.
So for entries: Enter now very very long term or wait for another reversal pattern at least on the Daily timeframe (or H4).
The pattern now is very solid but markets can stay irrational far longer, so let´s see.
Those red levels are possible optimistic targets where price should go if we break through everything.
So this means the economy could easily break down by 30% or even up to 50-80%. Everything is possible but always remember, that´s a global event then and the FED and others will do their best paired with politics to time this thing right... so does Trump.
Cheers
CADCHF High Probability Bearish Setup(Long-term setup)The current price level is a good entry point for such a setup. The trade is probably going to run for quite some time in order to hit our take-profit at 0.70988. Sorry for the big stop-loss. Adjust it according to the specifics of your trading plan.
GBPCAD Bullish high probability setup.We had a perfect XABCD pattern(clearer in 4hr timeframe), and a good short setup at 1.75858(D). Price correction came in as expected. An ascending channel is expected, as the price correction has lasted for the last 15 hrs . A bullish setup is the most probable at this point. My target at 1.76745. Adjust your stop-loss and take-profit accordingly.
SPX (S&P 500), Daily Chart Analysis Feb 23Technical Analysis and Outlook
The index is continuously moving steadily to higher towards our Next Index Rally 2840 , while a significant Key Res 2814 will act as a major barrier. In near-term, on the downside, there is an intermediate Mean Sup 2747 , and Key Sup 2706 . (For latest Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
Gold / US Dollar, Daily Chart Analysis Feb 22Technical Analysis and Outlook
With Gold completing Gold Rally $1245 as well as retracement Phase 1 is poised to move either towards Key Sup $1302 or resume the rally to the newly established Key Res $1341 and beyond. (For the latest market talk, please see the site 'Market Commentary' tab - TradingSig_dot_com).
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis Feb 13Technical Analysis and Outlook
Despite the Bitcoin, weakness, the short/term rally is intact from a charting technical outlook; however, traders and investors should continue to be cautious with the coin as the cryptocurrency might form a break-out move to attack the Key Res $3682 .
This could drive to a swift movement to above its trading range. The firm Key Res $3682 remains to be a major obstacle, while support is found at Mean Sup $3361 , and in the long-timer Key Sup $3191 along with completed Inner Coin Dip $3129 and Yearly Low $3120 . (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).