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Wholesale Inflation Posts Its Biggest Decline in Over Three YearA powerful one-two combination of data pointing to softening inflation is continuing to support investor sentiment and a strong equity rally with Producer Price data this morning showing weaker-than-expected price increases among wholesalers. The data follows yesterday’s release of the Consumer Price Index, which showed no m/m change. Stocks are also gaining additional support from data this morning depicting declining retail sales, which equity players are perceiving as disinflationary rather than contractionary. Markets are bifurcated today, however, with yields and the dollar higher, as bond and currency traders pare back some of yesterday’s bonanza. Consumers Rein in Spending The U.S. Commerce Department reported this morning that retail sales declined sharply in October, as consumer spending slowed from the third quarter’s blistering pace. The resumption of student loan repayments definitely had an adverse impact, as a portion of wages were allocated to debt service rather than consumption. Retail sales declined 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) in October, the first decline since March. October’s figure arrived better than the -0.3% projection, however, while slipping from September’s 0.9% growth rate. Retail sales excluding automobiles and excluding automobiles and gasoline rose 0.1% on both fronts, worse than the 0.8% figures from September. Sales Contraction is Broad Based Seven out of thirteen categories contracted during the period, with the following categories experiencing the noted m/m declines: Furniture showrooms, 2% Miscellaneous stores, 1.7% Automobile dealerships, 1% Sporting goods retailers, 0.8% Building materials shops, gasoline stations and general merchandise also had declines but of lesser degrees. Gains were led by health and personal retailers, with sales increasing 1.1%. Other categories produced the following increases: Grocery stores, 0.6% Electronics and appliances retailers, 0.6% Dining establishments, 0.3% Ecommerce, 0.2% The apparel category was flat. Wholesalers Hit with Price Declines Wholesale inflation cratered at its fastest rate since the depths of the pandemic in April 2020. October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.5% m/m, less than projections of a 0.1% increase and September’s 0.4% growth rate. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged and weaker than the 0.3% estimated and the previous month’s 0.2%. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, headline and core producer prices rose 1.3% and 2.4%, compared to the previous period’s 2.2% and 2.7%. Leading the wholesale price decline were a 6.5% drop in energy products, a 0.7% decline in trade services and a 0.2% contraction in food. Transportation and warehousing wholesale prices rose at a sharp 1.5% rate, meanwhile. Services overall came in unchanged m/m while goods excluding food and energy rose 0.1% during the period. Equities Gain, but Positive Sentiment Eases Optimism sparked by yesterday’s CPI and this morning’s PPI appears to be easing, with stocks off their highs of the day while yields and the dollar have given back a good chunk of Monday’s gains. Still, all major U.S. equity indices are higher, with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading, having gained 0.8% while the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial indices are higher by 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.2%. Sectoral breadth remains impressive, with all sectors higher while the defensive health care and utilities sectors are 0.1% and 0.4% lower. Leading the sectors are materials and consumer staples, with each gaining 0.6% as technology looks tired from its recent monster run. Indeed, to secure more gains going forward, the market will need to broaden out and begin to exhibit momentum in cyclical and value stocks. The dollar and yields are higher, with the 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities up 8 and 10 basis points (bps) to 4.92% and 4.55% while the greenback’s index is up 22 bps to 104.30. The dollar is gaining relative to the euro, yen and pound sterling while it loses ground versus the franc, yuan and Aussie and Canadian dollars. Crude oil is down 1.3% or $1.02 to $77.14 per barrel in response to the Energy Information Administration reporting a 17-million-barrel inventory increase in the U.S. over two weeks. Buoyant supply, continued concerns about weakening demand and waning worries over a potential escalation of the Middle East crisis are weighing on the commodity’s price. Consumers Cut Spending and Seek Bargains Target’s third-quarter results illustrate how consumers are cutting back on discretionary purchases while results for TJX highlight how consumers are increasingly turning to off-price retailers for low-cost items. At Target, comparable sales, which is derived from stores operating for 12 months or more and online channels, fell 4.9% during the third quarter. It was the second-consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales. On a y/y basis, the company’s revenues dropped from $26.5 billion to $25.4 billion, a 4.3% contraction. The result, however, exceeded the $24.24 billion anticipated by the analyst consensus. On another positive note, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $2.10 exceeded the consensus expectation of $1.48 and increased from $1.54 in the year ago quarter. The quarter was impacted by Target aggressively discounting merchandise as it sought to reduce an inventory glut, a strong trend among retailers. Target also attributed its third-quarter earnings growth to improved sales of “high-frequency items” such as groceries and beauty items, the addition of a new line of trendy kitchenware, and other new items. Target also said it has continued to reduce its inventory which as of the end of the third quarter was down 14% y/y. TJX, which operates discount retailers T.J. Maxx, HomeGoods and Marshall’s, raised its full-year guidance and said its third-quarter results benefited from capturing market share as its off-price stores attracted cost-conscious consumers. The company expects to generate a full-year EPS of $3.71 to $3.74, up from its earlier guidance of $3.66 to $3.72. TJX expects same store sales to increase 4% to 5%, an increase from its earlier guidance of 3% to 4%. During the third quarter, its sales revenue of $13.27 billion jumped approximately 9% from the $12.17 billion generated by the company in the year-ago period. Analysts expected $13.09 billion. Its overall same-store sales, furthermore, climbed 6%. TJX also posted an EPS of $1.03, which climbed significantly from $0.91 in the year-ago period. The recent quarter EPS exceeded the analyst consensus expectation of $0.99. In addition to benefiting from shoppers seeking bargains, TJX is also benefiting from its suppliers having excess inventory. The company provides discount prices by acquiring surplus items that retailers are removing from their inventories. Washington Makes Progress of Avoiding Government Shutdown In Washington, the House of Representatives appears to have avoided a government shutdown by passing a plan that will extend government funding until early next year. The measure is expected to be approved by the Senate and was passed by the lower chamber even though, it delays political battles over spending for border security and the Ukraine-Russia War while failing to make budget cuts in other areas of government spending. The House Freedom Caucus opposed the continuing spending resolution because it doesn’t include budget cuts and address border issues. The Balancing Act Today’s weak economic data highlights an important consideration going forward. Is data decelerating slow enough to be supportive of a soft landing, or is activity falling sharply and more consistent with recessionary conditions? The question is of the essence for capital markets as we operate within late-cycle monetary policy tightening, the riskiest juncture. While the former case would be supportive of current earnings estimates, the latter case would certainly point to projections falling from the $240 expected in 2024 for the S&P 500.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by IBKR
12
PAINT - A Hidden NFT Gem Will Take-off HighCurrently, $PAINT is showing the same chart pattern of BTC before it took off in Oct 2020. With a huge drop from its ATH, PAINT will return high, possibly x10, from the bottom when it passes the EMA89. Hopefully, it won't drop lower. The expectation for the event is about late May or the beginning of Jun when Binance launches its NFT. Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
PLong
by khoingn
BioNTech delivers like promised | NEW COVID VACCINE DATA | Hey fellow Traders! Today From MAINZ, Germany to NEW YORK . In the last Analysis we talked about upside potential of the freshly developed Covid-19 Vacccine from NASDAQ:BNTX and NYSE:PFE Also calling out those huge gains even before all those news were released. "Today those companies announced their mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, against SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated evidence of efficacy against COVID-19 in participants without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, based on the first interim efficacy analysis conducted on November 8, 2020 by an external, independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) from the Phase 3 clinical study. After discussion with the FDA, the companies recently elected to drop the 32-case interim analysis and conduct the first interim analysis at a minimum of 62 cases. Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases." This means we are right on track for the FDA Fast Track Drug Approval, on which the whole world put their hopes on. With increasing daily cases this news are like a rescue ring in the middle of the ocean. But lets get back to the chart. We had a huge upper resistance level at the psychological mark at $100 but if this move today turns out to not just be a bull trap and we can see a solid consolidation phase, im optimistic to see a new support level building up at the prior resistance. As we can see the uptrend is still intact and we could form a nice resistance/support level over time. With the incoming cataclyst it should be pretty obvious that we are likely to see a evven stronger upmove soon. But this stock is still a playball from big hegdefonds and investors. So be careful when trading this. Personally i´ll use the next the next rebound to stock up, wait for the news and then sell nearly all those shares on good news. Why i am sure about this? - Well the stock had the same moves for the past months, and if you understoof this, it was like a money making machine. - First come first served - Millions of pre sold Vaccine doses to dozen of countries. - Momentum - No insider sold yet - MRNA TECHNOLOGY - CANCER MEDICICNE IN THE PIPELINE - Incredible Management Team - And of course Everyone wants to finally get their old life back. - $1.4 B Potential Revenue - Bill Gates Thank you for taking your time to read this. I hope this was interesting and useful to you. Best greetings and happy trading! :) Disclaimer: All writers opinions are their own and dod not constitute financial advise in any way whatsovver. Nothing published by me constitutes an investment recoomenddation, nor should any data or Content be relied upon for any investment activites. I strongly recommend that you perfom your own independdet research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.
NASDAQ:BNTXLong
by Sebastian-TradingExpertsEU
2
DXY strength - with the trendline intactHello traders and analysts, We have just purchased a position in our investment allocation to get some nice exposure to offset the portfolio. You can buy either on brokers the DXY or investment fund version, less leverage but safer protection for capital Note: price can break down to 95, but if this does - re-entry will be more prominent for longs Below is the COT data provided Avg_13 20,233 10,666 30,899 65% 35% Avg_20 20,926 11,028 31,954 65% 35% AVG 50 31,749 11,819 43,569 72% 29% Technicals: All time high S&P, NAS and US30 - looking to create double top V-shaped correction shows pure strength and no pullbacks retrace shows slow accumulation from 2011 - 2019 so alot of growth broke down. Fundamentals: USD stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Failure to lockdown the country and social distance. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. - pump and dump for stocks who claim to have breakthroughs. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. twitter hack will affect tech stocks and S&P for privacy laws. election taking place in november. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:DXYLong
by LupaCapital
1
BITCOIN TRICK US ON A BULLTRAP, WHAT NOW?Hi everyone, Just a quick Idea about Bitcoin. He did this week a fake breakout, and we were stopped out from our short (shorted at ) And also he stopped us from our long ( longed here ) Bad trader? not at all We will be a bad trader with we don't manage our portfolio properly and we do like gambling once at all. So, what happened? The crypto just did a fake movement and now is traped on a zone that I don't see any trade to do. Bitcoin can move from U$9000 to U$9320 and It will be still inside his actual pattern ( pink triangle on my graphic). So, I will expect a clear graph so I can trade crypto again. On the meantime I just did one trade at BINANCE:LINKBTC that ended with a 13%+ profit (pays all the stops). So, think in the long term. Don't panic and wait.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tassolago