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S&P 500 Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For September 21, 2020 Technical Analysis and Outlook The S&P 500 hit the Key Sup and Outer Index Dip $3,216 , on September 24, respectively. The ''All Out Buy Zone'' and Mean Res $3,315 was an excellent entry up and down for the Trade Selector Signal system all week long - intraday traders accumulating a whopping 305 handles trading single E-mini S&P 500 Futures contract (We love this kind volatility). To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For September 21, 2020" at the usual site.
TVC:SPX
by TradingSig
2
XAUUSD Gold | SWING - 13. Sep. 2020Hello my friend | Welcome Back. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. *** The last three gold candlesticks mean a strong decline, but at the same time a triangle is formed if the triangle is not supported, it may head towards the upside and complete the rise, but if the support is broken, the price may head to $1,816. *** Here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate No single analysis is To make a decision follow your own thoughts. *** The information given is not a Financial Advice. BTCUSD Apple GBPUSD EURUSD XAUUSD AUDUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Saeed966
10
SHACK: A Technical and Fundamental Approach to Shake ShackIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this analysis, I will be explaining my on views on the high-end burger brand, Shake Shack (SHAK). I'll be exploring the technicals and financials of the stock, as well as the overall business model of the company. Technicals - Shake Shack's price history demonstrates a phase of immense bullish momentum - It formed a textbook cup and handle pattern, in which the breakout led to the formation of all time highs - However, after topping out, in November 2019, Shake Shack announced that it would temporarily shutter locations for upgrades in 2020 - This led to a significant drop with the addition of the Corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic, too severe to the point where the 5 year trend line support was tested. - As it was technically oversold, stock prices bounced off support, forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern - Based on the current technical setup, we could see the stock rally towards its previous all time high levels, completing the reversal pattern Financials - Shake Shack is one of the businesses that has been hit hard by the Corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic - Due to lockdowns initiated by the government, their earnings for the second quarter of 2020 were at a net loss - In terms of financials, the major issue is that they are short in cash - With $112m in cash, they are spending $1.5m every week to cover fixed costs such as rent - They have also laid off hundreds of employees and sold their stocks to secure more cash - Due to their being a 2 Billion Dollar company, Shake Shack did not quality for the government's payroll program, and thus could not receive $10m in aid - Currently, only over half of Shake Shack's licensed global units remain open, limiting Shake Shack's cash flow - However, it's also important to note that they have shown a 25% growth in revenue year over year for the past five years. Business Model - Nevertheless, Shake Shack's Business model cannot be undermined. - They have positioned themselves as a high-end burger place, unlike other fast food restaurants such as Mc Donald's (MCD) - This is a strength for Shake Shack during the Corona Virus Pandemic, as people seek to purchase luxurious goods during hard times. - As people can't eat out as frequently as they used to, when they do decide to eat out, they get an expensive meal. - Just as luxurious goods are high in demand during recessions, Shake Shack's quality burgers will continue to be in demand during the pandemic. - It's just the severity of the situation, and lockdowns initiated by the government, that prevent people from visiting Shake Shack stores as frequently as they used to. - Shake Shack's management model is highly effective and efficient, providing the customer not only a pleasant experience, but also consistently delicious burgers through their meticulous quality control. - This allows Shake Shack to scale tremendously over time, just as Mc Donald's has managed to do. - They have great brand loyalty with a huge customer return rate, and the engaging ambiance they provide at their restaurants is what sets them apart from their competitors. Conclusion Shake Shack is a extremely solid company, struggling during hard times. However, it's important to note that SHACK is an overlooked growth stock, with immense potential for scalability. Given that the virus ends some time within 2021, we could expect a fast recovery, and huge continued growth from this company, as its fundamental business model continues to remain solid.
NYSE:SHAKLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
$IWM Financials Bull Run - Component #2 AMEX:IWM As we continue to embark on this epic economic bubble , there will be varying components that will be mixed in so the trend can continue. To allow some normality to the markets, profit rotations still seem to be taking place and tech seems to be the one market that is becoming exhausted. With that said, I think we continue to see those absurd profits roll into financials and small caps, allowing $IWM to be a benefactor of that, which the technicals are starting to show. With that thought in mind, looking at the chart you can clearly see a strong bullish breakout, with volume (last green volume bar to the right) from consolidation and our first attempt at breaking the first red trend line. I expect us to retrace a bit from here, and each red line there after once contacted, but also fully expect us to make our way up to at least the $170 region (3rd and final red trend line). From there, in J. Powell we trust and Gods speed. I leave you with this, "cut your losses early and let your profits run" - J. Livermore - PennyBag
AMEX:IWMLong
by PennyBagsCapital
Doomsayers Beware: Potential Resistance on Bond PricesAs most people know, sentiment has been running uber-bearish. That’s lifted gold and depressed interest rates. But now the action in bond prices may be showing an end to the move. The iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF tracks the prices of long-dated bonds. And they may have recently hit a peak around $172, near the same level where it was rejected in April. There could be several implications if this potential double-top holds. First, and most obviously, it would boost longer-term bond yields. That, in turn, would steepen the curve and could help banks and financials. It could also lift some economic forecasts using bond yields as indicators. That, in turn, could make it harder to own high-multiple “growth” stocks and keep money flowing toward cyclical “value” names like small caps, industrials and financials. Higher rates could also support the U.S. dollar and make precious metals a little less precious. The news flow today is consistent with this kind of shift: 1-TSA data shows air travel back to its highest levels since March. 2-China is moving to reopen visits to Macau. 3-Washington is inching toward a stimulus bill.
NASDAQ:TLT
by TradeStation
1
Watch this trend line for signs of a banking sector recoveryThe financial sector's technicals are looking more bullish after earnings week, with the MACD above the signal line and the price above a volume support. Banks reported mixed financial results, with sales 4.3% above Street expectations, but earnings 3.3% below Street expectations. The earnings came in weak mostly because banks set aside big piles of cash to guard against future loan losses. So overall, the reports were quite strong and banks look better protected against the coming solvency crisis. I expect the narrative around banks to remain somewhat negative anyway, with CMBS delinquency rates up 3x in 3 months to 10.32%; Moody's downgrade-to-upgrade ratio near the highest ever; residential mortgage forbearance up to 8.7%; and the annualized corporate default rate higher than the 2009 level. These numbers appear to be worsening every month. However, any news of stimulus from Congress could allay solvency fears for the near-term and send bank stocks into a new uptrend. Banks have currently made a downward-sloping trend line from their February peak, and with stimulus likely to be announced by the end of July, I think we're likely to see a move upward through the trend line this month. I don't know that I'm prepared to invest a bunch of money in bank shares with the narrative so negative right now, but August 31 calls on XLF at the $24 strike look like a reasonably low-risk gamble, especially if we get a trend line break. (I'd consider taking a real, long-term stake in XLF shares if it retested the $20 or $18 levels.) A couple ways to play this would be to alert the trend line and enter after a break, or to alert the supports at $23.50 or $23 and enter when it hits those supports. You'll get better prices on option calls if you buy the supports rather than a confirmed break of the trend line, of course. (P.S. Goes without saying, but this is an idea only and not investment advice.)
AMEX:XLFLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Citigroup looks undervalued, but too risky to enter hereI did a deep valuation analysis on Citigroup today, digging into their earnings reports for the last three years as well as analyst estimates for the next 4 quarters. Here are my conclusions. In forward P/S terms, Citigroup is nearly the cheapest it has been in the last three years. However, in forward P/E terms, it's nearly the most expensive it has been in the last three years. The valuation in P/S terms may be more important, because analysts expect the earnings numbers to climb steeply back up to meet the sales numbers within a few years. (Roughly 23% earnings growth rate expected in the next 4 quarters, and nearly 4% growth rate for sales.) However, there are risks. Analysts are predicting a steep drop-off in sales next quarter due to the pandemic's impact on consumer credit, which is sharply down. Then they expect sales to recover from there. However, an alternative scenario is that the pandemic is prolonged and we don't get a vaccine this fall, in which case credit might continue to deteriorate and Citigroup's sales might fall off even more steeply in Q4 than in Q3. I'm also worried about the outlook for the mortgage market. Current housing prices are artificially high, but there's a reckoning coming for residential real estate whenever Congress allows mortgage forbearance to expire. (Expiry is scheduled for August 31, but there's talk of extending it to next year.) If forbearance is extended, then renters and borrowers may not pay, which would hurt bank earnings. If forbearance is allowed to expire, then housing prices will fall and mortgage sales numbers will fall with them. Banks would seem to be in trouble either way, and I'm not certain analysts have accounted for this. Thus, I will not be entering Citigroup here. I expect the narrative around banks to remain negative for the next quarter as bankruptcy and default rates continue to rise and credit continues to deteriorate. There's a good chance we will retest the bottom near $36/share sometime in the coming quarter; if so then I will revisit the numbers on Citigroup and consider an entry there. (P.S. It's also worth pointing out that under normal market conditions, Citi's sales and earnings appear to grow linearly in dollar terms, which means that growth decelerates over time in percentage terms. In other words, Citigroup is not a compounder. That's reason enough to only trade this stock, not buy-and-hold for the long term.)
NYSE:C
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
14
XLF at a Decision PointThe XLF is a major decision point. It's at the end of a wedge within another wedge. The solid green line at the bottom is flag support. XLF needs to maintain that flag support or it will take a trip to below $22. Bank earnings are tomorrow. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will set the tone for what earnings will be like. RTY and ES' fate now lies with the financial and transportation sectors. That's why I didn't trade today. Too much uncertainty to what will happen with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo in post-earnings. Something tells me the pullback is not over yet.
AMEX:XLF
by Itsallsotiresome
July 12 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: S&P $3,200 Balance; Multi-Week Consolidation; Close Above Mechanical Highs; Nasdaq Overextension; Financials Find Support. Technical: Broad-market equity indices balanced last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 traversed higher and left minimal excess before balancing into the close. Tuesday’s session made an attempt for Monday’s high, near $3,180, but sold off, leaving value higher and closing just below the overnight low. After a quick morning liquidation, Wednesday’s session rejected prices in the lower part of the balance area and left value overlapping, with a close at the highs. Thursday responded lower, after a quick push to the $3,170 area of resting liquidity, to and through a low volume area and the prior day’s low, before squeezing back into range. Despite the high gamma expiration suggesting many names could pin, Friday opened up around a composite high-volume area, within range, and attempted lower, before responding back through the open, and repairing earlier weak highs. bit.ly Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are extremely extended while relatively weak sectors, such as energy and financials, have found it hard to come by support. Overall, the market is at an important level and will likely, based on its reaction to Friday’s close, experience volatility in coming sessions. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Federal Budget; NFIB Business Optimism; CPI; NY Fed Manufacturing; Industrial Production; Initial Claims; Retail Sales; Business Inventories; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts. Fundamental: In light of extremely accommodative policies, investors should feel optimistic. bit.ly United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) may furlough 36,000 staff. on.wsj.com NASDAQ:UAL Rivian raised $2.5B led by T. Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ:TROW). bit.ly NASDAQ:TROW Economic weakness may lead to new rounds of layoffs, business failures. bit.ly Corporate loan growth may slow as firms make use of liquidity piles. bit.ly OPEC and allies to ease oil cuts amid demand recovery. on.wsj.com Canada’s long-term financial profile is consistent with AAA rating. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) to hold shareholder meeting, battery day on 9/22. on.mktw.net NASDAQ:TSLA Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS) settles shareholder suit over debt. reut.rs NYSE:CS Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) scrambles over 737 MAX financing. reut.rs NYSE:BA Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) rolling out bigger United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE: UPS), FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) style trucks. reut.rs NASDAQ:AMZN Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE), BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) vaccine ready by end of year. reut.rs NYSE:PFE NASDAQ:BNTX Canada posts record job gains in June as services reopen. reut.rs U.S. producer prices fall while underlying inflation stabilizes. reut.rs Europe challenges Visa Inc (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE: MA). bit.ly NYSE:V NYSE:MA A Citigroup poll of 140 fund managers found that 62% expect Biden to win. bit.ly NYSE:C International trade in LNG collapsed, squeezing outlets for U.S. shale. on.wsj.com IEA raises 2020 oil demand forecast, but warns COVID-19 clouds outlook. reut.rs Increased tax rates may not matter as much with central banks adding liquidity. bit.ly Jefferies economic activity index has been flat-lined for numerous weeks. bit.ly Legislation to move Chicago casino forward a credit positive. bit.ly China’s manufacturing recovered and exports normalized. bit.ly White House aides urge proposals to undermine Hong Kong’s peg to USD. bloom.bg TVC:DXY Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) to acquire Postmates for $2.65B. bit.ly NYSE:UBER Savings rate, liquidity to fund upside for motor vehicles, housing. bit.ly Coinbase crypto exchange prepares stock market listing. reut.rs Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR), Stitch Fix Inc (NASDAQ: SFIX), Wayfair Inc (NYSE: W), and UpWork Inc (NASDAQ: UPWK) have room for upside. bit.ly NYSE:TWTR NASDAQ:SFIX NYSE:W NASDAQ:UPWK U.K. COVID-19 measures add fiscal cost, consolidation plan coming. bit.ly Latin American connectivity leading to increased digitalization of work, commerce. bit.ly Decline in unemployment largely the result of classification. bit.ly Coronavirus to weigh on fiscal 2021 tax revenues despite employment bump. bit.ly Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims have risen. bit.ly Pandemic is outpacing the ability to respond in some states. bit.ly Gold rally backed by fears of future inflation, debt, and negative yield. bit.ly Sentiment: 27.2% Bullish, 30.2 Neutral, 42.7% Bearish as of 7/12/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,251,920,785 as of 7/12/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 44.3% as of 7/12/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:UNG AMEX:DBO Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Bank of America testing trend lineBank of America is near a three-month trend line today as the entire market pulls back. $BAC is far from the strongest of the bank stocks, which are a weak sector in general, so it's quite possible it won't hold the support. I've picked up a July 31 option call and set an alert to trigger to me to sell if it crosses below the trend line. Estimize is forecasting small beats on both EPS and revenue on $BAC's next earnings report.
NYSE:BACLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3