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Data from ADP is alarming and the Bank of India The Financial Times reported that the United States and China settled most of the issues that prevented the conclusion of an agreement. Myron Brilliant, executive vice president and head of International Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said: “The deal was agreed on by 90%.” So the end of the trade wars is getting closer. Such news is extremely positively perceived by emerging markets, as well as raw materials markets. In addition, the medium was remembered by a rather extensive block of macroeconomic statistics. Business activity index in Germany, and the Eurozone were better than expected above 50. In addition, retail sales in the Eurozone were better than forecasts (+ 0.4% m / m with a forecast of +0.3 m / m). So the growth of the euro in some ways can be considered natural. Especially when you consider that it was happening against the background of rather weak data from ADP on employment in the US private sector. Instead of the expected + 175K, was only + 129K. Recall that on Friday we are waiting for official statistics on the US labor market. So on the eve of the NFP, these figures are alarming and the dollar was under pressure yesterday. But more about the data on the NFP, we will talk tomorrow. Today we are going to look for points for selling dollar. Despite the rather weak statistics from the UK, the PMI in the services sector was much worse than expected below 50 (means that activity is declining), the pound was growing yesterday. The reason is - Brexit and some progress that has been noted in it. It is about Theresa May's negotiation with the Labor Party. Laborites support for a customs union with the EU. This option of Brexit can be attributed to the most lenient, therefore the pound was growing yesterday, despite the weak data. Our position is unchanged - we buy a pound. In the oil market, the fundamental background generally contributes to short-term purchases: OPEC + restricts supply, but as for demand, news of the progress in negotiations between the United States and China definitely plays into the hands of buyers. We cannot but note that the latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a sharp increase in US oil reserves (more than 7 million barrels), and also recorded the fact of a new record of US oil production - 12.2 million barrels. So there is a risk of a change in sentiment in the oil market to bearish. But for now, the “bulls” are in control. Therefore, our intraday recommendation without changes is. We look for points for buying oil on the intraday basis. Today may be a day of respite before the statistics on the US labor market. We recommend paying attention to the Indian rupee. If the Bank of India lowers the rate, the USDINR may go up. Considering how much it has decreased over the past six months, the USDINR medium-term purchases may well bring in several hundred points of profit. We also recall the feasibility of sales of the Russian ruble. The news background for this is favorable. This refers to the information that Senator Chris Van Hollen (Democrat) and Rubio (Republican) submitted to the lower house of Congress a draft of new sanctions against Russia (this is the so-called "bill from hell", which radically restricts Russia's access to external markets for financial resources).
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
XLF, Financials Signal a Trouble AheadXLF is an ETF that tracks the financial sector - one of the largest sectors in S&P. The chart reflects a strong rejection from a major HVN (high value node) as well as the level where the downside conviction had started back in December 2018. The price has closed right at the edge of the large value area. Usually, a bounce is expected. If the level gets accepted the price will start climbing up back to the top of the box otherwise we may see filling the gap and retest of the next box down below. 2 Major sectors Financial and Technology keep the S&P at higher prices, one of them has started to show its weakness. If the Technology starts to follow we will see a significant weakness of the index.
AMEX:XLF
by SviCapital
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis March 8Technical Analysis and Outlook The main downtrend was completed on March 7, and a new Main Down Trend Path is marked at 1.1038 . As the currency has broken out of the tight trading zone (See Euro Chart Analysis March 7) made take-out all designated vital take profit and/or initiating buying - Mean Sup 1.1260 , Key Sup 1.1218 along with completed Inner Currency Dip 1.1238 including Outer Currency Dip 1.1215 (See Euro Chart Analysis March 1). Currently, we have a rebound in the process - possible Mean Res 1.1270 destination. However, to validate formal completion of intermediate down move we require confirmation signal which is in development - It will be known by the end of the session on Monday, March 11. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
by TradingSig
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis Feb 20Technical Analysis and Outlook Despite the Bitcoin, weakness, the short/term upward move has materialized by completing Inner Coin Rally $3948 ; however, traders and investors should continue to be cautious with the coin as the cryptocurrency might form a break-out move to attack the Outer Coin Rally $4161 - as of this posting the is no Trade Selector Signal conformation. The firm Mean Res $4070 and Key Res $4243 remain to be a significant obstacles, while support is found at Mean Sup $3560 , and Mean Sup $3360 are in place. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingSig
Precious Metals, the historical safe haven. What can be said about gold and precious metals? Gold has always started out as sound money, followed by monetary expansion, devaluation, and eventual collapse. Take the Roman Empire for example, money started as solid gold coins which eventually expanded with a mixture of base metal, than became worthless. Remember when a quarter was silver, penny was copper, and the rest was a mixture of silver, copper? Now? They are worthless base metals. This trend continued throughout history. Here we are again. This read will go through some of the current economic conditions with some commentary and suggestions. So, let's start with some recent economic news: 7 out of 9 recessions since 1950 came after rate hikes. Auto-Loan Delinquencies are higher today than the peak of 2008 recession. Corporate Debt has doubled since the 2008 recession. National, student, personal, and credit card debt is higher now than 2008. At Record Levels* Germany and Italy GDP Growth Rate is -0.2, Japan GDP Growth Rate is -0.6 New Home Sales fell 19% in 2018. Existing Home Sales have fallen. Auto-Sales are down on average 3%, up to 6% by manufacturer report. Credit Card delinquencies are up 17% since Q1 2016. Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009. China posted two-consecutive contraction in manufacturing. 1 in 3 Americans have less than $5,000 saved for retirement. 69% Of Americans Have Less Than $1000 In Savings So, what's going to happen? - The ugly truth is economic and monetary pain. Global economic weakness and contraction is here. Once the markets finally react to the toxicity of the monetary system, the central banks will react like they have in the passed with slashing interest rates, debt purchasing, and bond buying programs. But this time, resulting in the weakening or even failure of a currency. Let's go back to that monetary trend. Gold, expansion, devaluation, and than collapse. It's obvious where in the trend the monetary system is. We should expect astronomical injection of liquidity, purchasing of debts, and QE.... as a start. There are a few nations which have foreseen this and have been buying gold like never before. So, if they can foresee the problem and offset their exposure to it.. why aren't you? Have you noticed that gold has made a dramatic comeback after the bear market started? Gold has broke $1300 barrier with ease, and continued upward even with the stock market gains. Regardless, the price of gold must keep up with inflation. This tells us that the smart investors are starting to pile into safe havens, regardless what the market or central banks do. The recent actions from the Fed have proven that the stock market is indeed a bubble. The 0% interest rates fueled the bubble, the interest rate hikes popped the bubble. We saw proof of this: *Dec 21st, 2015 - (Dow 17,700) - Interest hiked, Dow fell 2,060 points until the Fed calmed markets by stopping rate hikes until after elections. *Feb 2018 - Dow fell 2,244 points. *Sept-Dec 2018 - Dow fell from 26,828 to 21,792 a drop of 5,036 points. *Feb 2018 - Fed announces pause in rate hikes, Dow jumps 400-points. As you can see, the Fed and interest rates have a direct impact on the stock market. Rising interest rates have put Emerging Markets in a tough spot, as 2018 saw EM Currencies drop anywhere from 20-50%. Recession is on the horizon, even in Europe. The fear is that the ECB will be powerless to calm any financial turmoil as ECB interest rates are already negative and QE is still being implemented. In the US, the Fed will slash rates to 0% immediately, followed by QE, but, this time the dollar will take a severe hit. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What to do from here? You see the storm far off and it's growing as well as coming towards you but where you stand, it's relatively calm. The problem is complacency in the calm or believing the storm is long away from hitting. But, storms are variable and can move any direction and gain speed. So, why not acknowledge the problem and prepare now? Now that gold is not $2,000+/oz. Why not look into gold mining stocks that are up 8-25% since November? Start putting more into precious metals and less into stocks, forex, and crypto. 15%-20% of your portfolio is not enough. Stocks, currencies, crypto can drop 90% in less than a year, but precious metals will always have value. Ask yourself how long it took for the Dow to reach 26,600 points and then ask yourself how long it took to drop 4,000 points? Take a moment to think about that. 10-years to grow to 26,000 vs 4-months to fall 5,036, where is the stability in that? This isn't a case of "eventually it will happen", it's already begun. The gains and drops are volatility that has set in. Gold Price Targets: North of $2,000 / OZ. Realistic, 3-5 Is Cryptocurrency a good investment? No. It is now commonly known as digital fools gold. Without internet, you can't access or spend it. It has no value, its another form of fiat. As long as the people believe crypto is worth something, it has "value" but based on its current price, investors and traders are realizing its true worth. Worthless. Nothing. Nada. What are some good mining stocks? BTG - WRN - ASM - AUY - GLD, most of these stocks are up anywhere from 10%-20% (1-Week to 3-Month). Compare that to stock market, which are down on average 20%. What stage are we at and when could this happen? We're Q1 of 2007, heading into Q2. Remember, Q2 is where all the trouble began when rates adjusted. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In conclusion. The numbers are out there, you can see it all for yourself. It doesn't take an expert to see the numbers are bad and the financials are toxic. It just takes effort and interest. If we take all of our financial news from major financial news organizations (stars with C and the other with B), then we're not going to see it until after it hits. Just remember, their "experts" said there was no recession coming and this were great. A recession isn't official acknowledged until its already here. What stage are we at and when could this happen? We're Q1 of 2007, heading into Q2. Remember, Q2 is where all the trouble began.
TVC:GOLD
by WorldEconomics
Short TD AmeritradeFinancial stocks have been beaten into the dirt over the last several months, but have recently seen some relief. Many banks are largely overbought at this point and AMTD is no different while also hitting a resistance level. Placing short orders between $55 and $55.50 as we will see an initial gap up at open this morning. This stock could certainly continue to rise, but my money is on a significant drop in the next couple weeks. Best case scenario is we hit our target and form a nice reverse head and shoulders pattern allowing us to flip to long and ride a strong move back up. Alternatively we may see the prevailing trend continue and watch as stocks continue to find lows.
AShort
by DefineRisk
Financials (XLF) Bullish Wedge or forming Head of H&SFinancials have sputtered as of late, and this can be interpreted in two ways: Scenario 1: This is a bullish wedge and because of expected future interest rate hikes financials will break out and create new highs in the $32 -$35 range for the AMEX:XLF . Supporting this is the RSI hit lows previously seen on 3/22 and all the way back to the beginning of 2016. Stoch has also recently hit a low and moving upward. Further, the selling pressure has been strong but the stock has remained in the bullish wedge pattern. Scenario 2: Selling pressure will break through the wedge formation and the stock will retrace to the ~$23 level. XLF has declined following almost every recent interest rate hike. Stock will retrace to $23 then bounce off support and subsequently fall after hitting resistance (previous support line for wedge). In the market we are in, I would error on the side of the trend (bullish). However, based on the way financials have behaved as of late, I would not be surprised if scenario 2 would occur. Either way, breakouts either way could be quite profitable if the proper stops are put in place.
AMEX:XLF
by myfye13
$XLF Financials ETF - Oversold at Support$XLF Financials ETF - Looking oversold on the daily chart after closing red or flat for 8 straight trading days. Ending the day today right at a key support level just under $24. A bounce in the coming days definitely hinges on the FED not raising rates tomorrow . If they do nothing, I expect a near term price recovery in the XLF back to the $25-$26 range by year end. With a lot of people expecting the worst, call options are looking fairly cheap in my opinion. I'm looking at the Dec 31st $24.00 strike calls that closed today around 40 cents. With a break even (excl. commissions) of $24.40 and the ETF closing today at $23.91, you would only need a ~2.1% move up from today's close to reach break even and you have about two weeks to do so. Depending on your risk appetite, you could move to the higher delta ITM (in-the-money) calls if you prefer. If the FED does end up raising rates tomorrow, I think we could easily see $23 or worse by year end. Hedging with a straddle or strangle options play would probably be the smartest approach. But as in everything, higher the risk higher the reward. Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
AMEX:XLFLong
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
JPM - Bearish-neutral Iron CondorStock rally through till early 2018. Choppy price action with range-bound price through remainder of 2018 indicates large volume of shares exchanging hands (in other words, for a better mental picture, larger holders off-loading to more interested but smaller buyers). Expectation is neutral price discovery, with earnings report in January catalyzing subsequent direction move, which is typically bearish/downward with such price action. For now, price is attempting to find a fair value, and as such a bearish-neutral bias is bet on here. 85/90/115/120 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.67 CREDIT General plan: Roll if necessary & if possible mainly to reduce risk, expecially in this case due to earnings report date before expiration Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early. Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas! Follow for updates.
NYSE:JPMShort
by themdtrader