Watch out: Cup & Handle forming and Q1 Results!Tesla is still trading within the profit area I identified on March 19th, 2018. It's currently trading BELOW the 200 days EMA as well consolidating the bear tendence.
On the other hand there has been an adding up of long positions lately, probably in the hope of a bounce right after the Q1 earning report scheduled for May the 2nd.
The movement on the hourly chart shows a probable cup & handle formation taking place. It might be a burst but it is worth taking a close look at it.
If, and I highlight the IF, this formation completes I would set a TP at around 305$ more or less. Still within the profit area I highlighted on March 19th.
It is important to notice that on May the 2nd the company scheduled the Q1 financial reporting and Q&A webcast. I personally do not expect a lot from this. And all I expect is no good news.
The company missed production targets for the Model 3 and we already know that. The company closed down the production lines recently due to various issues and all I expect is a confirmation of all these problems (and much more) in the financial results too.
***As usual, not a trading advice, merely my idea for educational purposes only***
Financials
Bullish setup for TDShares of TD appear to be pulling back to test a breakout level at ~$53.50, which coincides with a rising channel bottom. I'm a buyer at that level and will be targeting ~$66 on the upside, or +23% from here. In a rising rate environment and given the technical setup, I expect shares to outperform over the next several months.
Morgan Stanley SHORTShort from $58.02 will continue to short up to $66.
Market Cap - $102.8B
VWAP - 56.77
P/B - 1.49
Debt/Capital - 71.05%
Beta - 1.49
P/E - 18.13
- A major chunk of Morgan Stanley's revenues come from trading activities, which obviously is dependent on what the market is doing. The capital markets have performed very well in the past which lead to decent trading revenues - though since 1Q17 this trend has reversed (which is odd considering what the markets have done since then?!) They have had a slowdown in client activity and the low volatility led to a 1% decline in equity trading and a 4% in fixed income in 2017. This is expected continue in the near term.
- MS 12-month ROE undermines its growth potential. The company's ROE is 10.07% which has gradually improved since the crisis is much lower than the S&P 500's ROE of 16.08%. Showing its not using its shareholder's funds effectively.
- They continue attempting to strengthen their corporate banking section of the company. It was seeing a rise in net interest income over the past couple of years. Though again, since 1Q17 net interest income started to fall. In 2017 the net income interest fell 11% YoY - mainly due to interest expenses up 72%.
NeroTree Capital rates Morgan Stanley as a SELL with a price target of $40 over the next 52w.
Double Top Forming on XLF / FinancialsXLF is approaching massive resistance at $30, the peak prior to the Great Recession. It appears to be forming a double top, which if cleared will open the door for a huge rally. Conversely, a failure would open the door to a large correction. Very short term (next week or so), I think we see buyers lift prices (I'm long 3/29 $29's), but I believe we ultimately fail at $30, a level I'll short against. Given broader weakness, European banking issues (DB is crashing), overly bullish sentiment, and the aforementioned technical picture, it seems to be a good setup.
MASTERCARD (MA)The Current stock price is above both the 150 day and 200 day moving average.
The 200 day moving avg line is trending up (for at least one month)since October
The Current stock price is trading above the 50 day moving average.
The current stock price is at least 30 percent above its 52 week low. (appox 40% above it's 52 week low)
The current price is 95% of it's new high.
Credit Suisse
Rating since 10/12/09 OUtperform
TheStreet
Rating since 07/31/09 BuY
Ford Equity Research
Rating since 12/01/17 Strongbuy
MarketEdge
Rating since 12/01/17 Long
QD - Chinese Microloan Unicorn. +100% upside potential1. ER report +320% earnings growth (want played out)
2. Traders are scared of "data leak"+"regulation" will bring company down to zero. Thats why company lost 30% valuation on premarket. And got back to -3% in same day.
3. China wants to regulate "micro-loan industry". That was played out bearish, but it is actually bullish. China wants to BAN small and bad companies - competitors of QD. Means more profits for QD in future.
4. No serious risks in China Crysis in near term future (look at Tencent earnings report), economics might actually boost from here and now.
This will eventually end up 30+. When? don't know, but i think here is the bottom.
OSCI ready to mine gold?It has been a long road and you can see part of that under the $PYHH idea I previously published. $OSCI has filed a large number of financials in the past 2 days and I'm expecting them to go current on OTCMarkets.com followed by some news and hopefully production ramping up. We've seen a lot of activity over the past few months on the property, mostly posted to www.facebook.com
NOAH HOLDINGS PLC SHORT TERM SHORT, SEEKING LONGFUNDAMENTALS/FINANCIALS
Analysing the financials of this company, it is clear their assets are growing year on year between 10-30% and there revenues are also increasing. They seek to open branches in Canada, Australia and other discussed locations. As an asset management company, it is vital to ensure profits or "Revenues" are increasing whilst assets under management "AUM" also increase. China are currently seeking to invest outside of China as there are some restrictions. Chinese high net worth individuals are on the rise more than any other country in the world, this provides business for Chinese asset managers which also operate outside of China. NOAH HOLDINGS being listed on the new York stock exchange allow a further expansion over seas. NOAH HOLDINGS market cap is currently at US$1.78 billion with a P/E ratio of 20.28, which gives the Holding an estimated market value of US$36 billion. NOAH HOLDINGS also completed a repurchase programme of US$50 million, this demonstrates the commitment to it investors and potential growth in revenues and sales profits, it is also a possible sign of strength and shareholders optimism. Based on financial analysis, the fair share price is around US$28.00 per share, currently trading at a premium. If price does breach below this level I personally believe US$24.50 a share is a key holding level. To summarise, the financials and fundamentals around this company and the industry, economic standpoint is all very bullish. The company is healthy.
TECHNICALS/PRICE ACTION
As analysed on the chart, we have strong resistance around US$33.00 per share, we have a bearish harmonic formation with price bouncing on the upper channel line. An "ABCD" formation has been completed at the 1.318 extension level. The stochastic demonstrates overbought (in line with the financial analysis of price trading at a premium). There are multiple scenarios. However, my main position will be to enter long around US$28.50-US$27.00 per share (on Bullish PA confirmation), if price breaks below the channel and key holding level of US$25.00 per share then I will be out of this trade. However, as it stands from US$28.00 my target will be US$35.00 to US$40.00, possibly higher.
***PLEASE BE AWARE THIS IS JUST AN IDEA, IT IS NOT MY ACTUAL TRADE, I SEEK ENTRY AROUND THESE LEVELS IF PRICE DOES DEMONSTRATE BULLISH PA, THEN I WILL BE EXECUTING THIS TRADE. TRADE AT OWN RISK.***