C: Systemic risk, extremely overboughtCitigroup shares might be poised for a retracement here, we can expect a selloff to take place, if we don't move back above 56.78. I'd reccomend either shorting it, or buying puts. You can buy out of the money puts and sell bear put spreads to reduce costs (vs buying at the money puts).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Financials
SAN LONG DUE TO INDICATORS, CHANNEL AND INCREASING RATESSantander´s stock reached a support level early this year, and it was confirmed mid-year, as of now, there's an obvious channel in which the stock is moving, and due to macd, rsi and stochastic, $4.50 would be a good entry point these days.
I don't recommend $SAN for a long term investment though, as I'm using daily candles, I recommend it for a short term one, buying when it reaches the support of the channel and selling as it reaches the resistence.
Investment Managers Should Catch Up.Blackstone Group is back towards the bottom of the gentle up-channel started in 2009 (see weekly chart below).
Rebounded off a double-bottom on the daily chart in good volume, but not as much as the rest of the financials.
Similar story to another, smaller asset manager highlighted recently (please check LM idea).
1. Buy here with target 28.50 and stop 23.50 for a RR of 1.83x
2. Buy here with target 32.00 and stop 22.30 for a RR of 2.28x
3. Buy Jan 16'17 28.00 call at 0.32 and sell same maturity 23.00 put at 0.45
Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials:
If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below:
1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index.
2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225.
Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement.
3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market)
Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses
NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
CIELO: Compra/LongCompra de Cielo(CIEL3) baseada no respeito à zona de suporte. Devemos ver o preço subir nos próximos dias e semanas.
Going long on Cielo(CIEL3) due to bounce off support zone. We should see higher prices in the coming days and weeks.
Financials will benefit if the reflation theme continuesRelated to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World".
This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June.
BKX Index (candles)
BKX / SPX (blue)
US10Y (grey)
What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that the BKX index traded within 1% of the 2007 - 2009 61.8% retracement level last July, before bottoming at the 38.2% retracement level in February this year. Since then, yields have continued to fall (grey), but the relative performance of banks versus the S&P 500 (blue) has held firmer and failed to make new lows.
Assuming the reflation theme transpires, banks represent a compelling value play and remain an uncrowded US equity play. Now trading below the $70 level, technically the banks are in the lower half of the last 12 month's trading range and provide a decent payoff in the run up to $80 (61.8% level) with a stop-on-close (weekly) below $57 (38.2%).
For further insight and discussion please contact me via Tradingview or LinkedIn , on Twitter @James_LVDTA, and visit www.lexvandam.com to become a member of our Trading Club.
XLF and Q2 EarningsQ2 Earnings season is starting in Monday, July 11th with major financial institutions reporting.
Financials are projected to do slightly better then the previous quarter and may offer good upside potential.
From a fundamental standpoint, most financials are undervalued when taking into account future interest rates.
If "Market Stabilization" occurs in Q2 or Q3, further revenue and earnings growth is expected from Trading Revenue.
Technical Analysis showing resistance points after a break through the strong trend ling.
AUDNZD WAITING ON BREAKOUT 4HOURBreakout out of critical level followed up by a retest of that level and 61.8% fib level.
Stuck in a ranging market since the beginning of the month,
just awaiting a breakout to the downside confirmed by the careful use of MA's.
Looking for a downtrend towards target 1 at 1.03602 (monthly critical).
Price action at this level will confirm my further position or to capitalise on profits made.
Upon completion of this level the next to the downside would be target 2 at 1.02406.
Relief Rally In Global EquitiesGlobal Equities are experiencing a relief rally after a bizarre turn on events. For some reason, the brazen murder of British M.P Jo Cox turned the increasingly large "leave" vote around, and the "remain" vote regained the led heading into Thursday's Brexit vote.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index jumped off of technical support of 2,814 but still remains in a clear downtrend of 2015's bubble-high of 3,837. Since last year's top, the index has made several lower-lows, and the current trend from the bear market bottom has etched out two clear lower-highs.
Given the state of the brief risk aversion seen last week as the "leave" vote took a pronounced lead, global were "due" for a rebound. As alerted earlier last week, the near-term momentum was set for a shift:
twitter.com
If you look across European equities, the prospects are not turning out like many thought. In regards to the Euro Stoxx 50, price action does not get interesting until a close above the near-term, broken uptrend AND prevailing downtrend is confirmed. The 200-day EMA will be a key pivot point. The index has not been able to trade above this dynamic resistance since last December.
Wait for price to trade into resistance near 3,000/025. MacroView does not expect Britain to leave the European Union, but there are far too many risks to get excited about.
Check out Bloomberg's Brexit tracker, currently showing a small Brexit lead.
For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us.
Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
Follow MacroView CoFounders on TWTR1.45% @Lemieux_26 and @EconomicHedge
WFC and other Financials Looking Grim WFC has been unable to gain 50.5-51 resistance for months now, and the chart may indicate that it is time to retest lower. the last weekly level retest was 44.59, which bounced strongly and reversed. if 46.6 is lost, we should look towards 43.2 for next support test.
Lower still is 41.65 and 38.03 as well as others, but these levels may not apply for some time
GNW - recovering fortune 500 giant, turnaround play of the yearGNW recovery play, Long at 3.08 as of 6/14/2016, target 6.50 or more by this time next year. GNW was hit by horrible guidance and earnings the previous year and is just starting to recover since the last earnings early May. It has stopped the bleeding in its LTC unit and is poised to make a turnaround. Rate hikes should help GNW as well. 82% of stock float is held by institutions and mutual funds, and multiple firms have been picking up position in the stock the last quarter. The current tradable float is small and will be very volatile on low volume. I'm long Jan 2017- 5 strike calls. Looking for 5 by September
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data.
However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending:
The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure.
The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over.
In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend)
The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining).
We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur.
MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur.
If you would like to know more about MacroView's products and services, please feel free to message us.
As always, comment and post charts. We love to talk markets!
XLF- Which way to goI'd say closer to a short than a long, but we still need a clearer picture. A break 24.5/25 would be bullish, a break below 20 or so, bearish. THink we will move one way or the other in the coming months based on important fundos such as Spanish Election, Brexit, US election, China, etc.
TKAT Research Report - Fast Growth Rate, High Profit Margins ectCompany Name: Takung Art Co., Ltd.
Stock Symbol: TKAT Company Website: www.TakungArt.com
Trading at approx $3.60 Per Share (03/29/2016)
Several reasons I like this company. TKAT has a very attractive valuation, fast revenue growth rate, high profit margins and a truly innovative business model. Overall the company appears to be in a great position after reviewing their financials and 2016 statistics which I will go over.
-For the first two months of 2016, Takung’s online trading platform generated U$493.43 million in transaction value versus $140.84 million in the like year-ago period.
-The company reported revenue of $11,335,941 for 2015, which represents a 140% increase on revenue of $4,719,862 in the prior year.
-The company reported net income of $5,436,109, for 2015, a 297% increase on net income of $1,369,537 for the prior year.
-Cash on hand as of December, 31 2015 was $10,769,456 and total assets stood at $29,749,213
Its reasonable to see this growth continue after seeing the impressive quarterly and annual trend for the past 3 periods. Aside from the positive trend, a key thing to consider is their growth rate with their high net profit margins and how they generate revenue.
Annual: 2015 / 2014 / 2013
Revenue $11,336,000 $4,720,000 $359,000
Net Income $5,436,000 $1,370,000 $4,000
Quarterly: Q4 2015 / Q3 2015 / Q2 2015
Revenue $6,419,000 $2,706,000 $936,000
Net Income $3,721,000 $1,144,000 $77,000
TKAT is fairly new to the public markets, low market cap and many investors don’t know about the company yet but could get very interesting once the word is out. I’ve ran multiple google searches of multiple phrases which relate to their business model and I’m not able to find any companies especially publicly traded with similar business operations. I urge you to watch this Reuters Video www.reuters.com which gives a clear understanding of their unique and innovative business model, technology, including some words from the CFO and a Director. Also feel free to visit the company website to learn more or read the10-Kwhich goes into more detail. I’ll be sure to provide more updates as they come and additional research.
Business Overview:
Based in Hong Kong, Takung Art Company Ltd. provides a secure and easy way for art collectors and investors to acquire shared ownership in Asian fine art – including paintings, calligraphies, jewelry and precious gems – and participate in the booming Asian art market without fear of price manipulation and forgery. This proprietary platform allows collectors and investors – including those with modest financial resources — to buy and sell units of these assets and participate in the booming Asian art market.
For providing this unique service, Takung Art Company earns multiple streams of revenue, including listing fees, trading commissions, management fees and authorized agent fees.
Takung operates its online trading platform via three wholly-owned subsidiaries, Hong Kong Takung Assets and Equity of Artworks Exchange Co. Ltd., Takung (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., and Takung Cultural Development (Tianjin) Co., Ltd.
As of February 29, 2016, Takung had 64 such listings trading on its proprietary platform with a combined value of approximately US$270.28 million . Currently, almost all of the traders on the platform are located in mainland China. The ability to trade these valuable assets on Takung’s proprietary online trading platform has attracted a significant number of fine art investors – including many ordinary people without substantial financial resources. This novel platform significantly expands the number of interactions between sellers and buyers of fine art far beyond those generated by art galleries and auction houses alone.
ABOUT TAKUNG ART CO., LTD: www.takungart.com
Recent Media Coverage:
Full research& Disclaimer: www.stockpicksnyc.com