XLF Has Its Pre Financial Crisis High In SightsThe popular ETF, XLF follows the financial sector and after weeks of selling, it looks to have found support and be gearing up for a big move indicated by the Weekly Squeeze coiling for the past 8 weeks, with the momentum shifting to bullish this week. If you take a look at C (Citigroup), it too has a Weekly Squeeze. If you take a look at it on a Daily it also has a Squeeze which looks like it will fire long. If this move for the financial sector plays out long, I would expect a retest of its high back from January (30.33) then a retest of it's high of 30.84. This high (30.84 - May 28, 2007 - 11+ year ago) is an important one because this was the peak of the financial sector ETF ( XLF ) before the financial crisis of 2008.
Financialstocks
US Financials Sector Under PressureWe have updated our monthly publication - US Sectors Relative to S&P500.
It is an overview of the major US sectors, and covers, amongst others, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Healthcare, Technology and Financials.
Within several ratings changes, we have Downgraded Financials to Underweight.
On an absolute basis, the US Financials ETF XLF is showing signs of exhaustion. Prices are correcting back from the March highs at 25.30, with focus now on the 22.55/57 break level from November/December. Falling momentum studies suggest risk of a break beneath here, with subsequent focus then turning to the 20.00 break level.
Relative to the US S&P500 Index, price action is also looking vulnerable.
In the coming months, we see further Underperformance as institutional investors reduce exposure.
Individual names which are currently under pressure include Bank of America Corp (BAC), Citigroup Inc (C), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), JP Morgan & Chase Co (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
However, several names are managing to hold on to their relative strength. Investors who are maintaining a Financials portfolio are currently seeing safety in for example, American Express Co (AXP), BlackRock (BLK), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Moody's Corp (MCO) and Prudential Financial (PRU).
JPM H&S PatternJPM seems to be breaking our of a head and shoulders pattern, also backed by the Coppock curve breaking out of defending triangle and will probably rebound to carry on going even more negative. Also, I would short now, but if it breaks the 100 MA then its a definite short until the support of the last flag pattern. Furthermore the stock seems to be entering a new trend zone represented by the purple colour.