Firstrand looking horrendous - Target to R64.47Inv Cup and Handle has formed on First rand.
Price<20 and <200 which makes it a Medium Probability trade.
But judging by the large down candle and the Fair Value Gap - means momentum is strong to the downside.
Target R64.47
This is strange considering how bullish the JSE Top 40 is looking. So it might be either a large fakeout or there is downside to come for the banks.
Firstrand
#FSR perhaps a little much for now - time for reversal? #JSEFirst Rand made a lovely pin bar reversal off support on Monday and subsequently followed through today. I like this one as a long here with a stop below R60.00 and a target back to the 50% fib of recent high and low which also coincides with its yearly pivot point (=- R67.00). Also note bullish divergence where RSI is making higher lows even though price made lower lows warning of a rally to come.
Trade idea:
Buy R61-R62
Stop loss, move below R60.00
Target R67
Risking R1/R2 to make R6 for a 6 or 3 to 1 risk reward
Note: 200dma at R65.83 could also be used as a target
Bullish Harami - FSRA Bullish Harami has formed on JSE:FSR which is a bottom reversal signal. It has triggered our long position and we have a target at around the 64.40 level. There is however, a gap that needs to be closed at around the 61 level. Be aware of this, as it may close the gap and come down instead of continuing upward.
FSR Potential Short coming soonJSE:FSR broke through a support trend line late November which it has since tested again and it seems to have become a resistance level. If it continues downwards and the MACD crosses downwards as well, I think we could see a short move down towards the 5200 price area. I will wait for confirmation before entering.
Big 4 SA Banks - 1W Channel Breaks I would have thought that bearishness in the SA banking sector is a thing of the past, with earnings showing bank balance sheets & prospects to be more robust than feared in the Covid sell-off. However their consistent grind higher since call it Jun/Jul last year looks to have stalled, with the Big 4:
- Showing channel breaks on their 1W charts,
- All trading in the no mans land between 15 EMA & 200 DMA,
- Negative momentum (RSI,MACD)
- Strong $ / weakening ZAR not positive for their outlook
Never thought I'd say it so soon into the recovery but, in a short term time frame, time to short SA banks? Or, if you have time to sit it out and an appetite for drawdowns, a good buying opportunity here?
Not shown is 1W the Capitec chart - with a few spinning tops that one could go also either way IMHO
JSE:FSR JSE:SBK JSE:NED JSE:ABG JSE:CPI
$JSEFSR on important supportZooming in on the 1hr chart - we notice that since FirstRand bottomed on the 24th of March, we have formed a trading channel with 3 successive higher lows. This level just above R36 also coincides with a bit of a bullish channel flag which is forming within the larger channel in play. Corporate action would probably explain much of the recent weakness but a nice technical setup could be forming and it would be wise to keep a close eye on this one. Aggressive traders could look to buy in the lower R36's using a tight stop loss as a break under the channel. More conservative traders would wait for a break of the smallish channel at +- R40.00. Eventual target could be towards the upper end of this channel at +-R50 should the stock convincingly break above R40.
FIRST RAND (FSR) POTENTIAL LONG (FNB)The price of this big bank stock is nearing two important areas, an upward trendline and a 200-day exponential moving average. If prices find support at any of these supports, we could see a rally towards the ceiling of the overall channel.
Buy: If price finds support on the ascending trendline, or if price finds support on the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
The trade will be invalidated if prices break well below either the 200 EMA or the trendline. It is important to note that the market is somehow bearish on the short term and bullish on the long term, therefore, long positions should be entered only after the prices shows bullish momentum. A safer trade would be to wait for an upward break of the correction flag/pattern before entering long
$JSEFSR Firstrand looking tired?Firstrand is starting to look tired here having reversed off the first big resistance level (R69-R70) as well as trend line connecting the stocks all-time high from MAR 18.
My biggest concern is that the rally from the lows in August has taken place on declining volume which doesn't give me a great deal of confidence in this rally. Secondly we are starting to see divergence develop on the RSI (price making new highs but indicator making new lows) which could be indicating a further correction in price.
We have reversed off the first massive horizontal resistance now at R69-R70, but also keep an eye on the secondary resistance level between R71-R72. Should the stock continue to roll over, important support levels on the downside to keep an eye on are R64.75 (200dma), R62, R60 and R55.
Bearish Engulfing on FirstrandA bearish engulfing chart pattern formed on JSE:FSR which is often a top reversal signal. The stochastic has also turned downwards which further confirms the signal.
I will however wait until it breaks through the fractal level from the 21st of October before entering short, as it isn't the most convincing of engulfing candles as the top of the two candle bodies is exactly the same level.
14 Oct 2019 - JSE:FSR - Long - Ascending Triangle - NEAR TRADE JSE:FSR is nearly ready to buy (go long) due to an ascending triangle that's been forming since 8 July 2019. You might be wondering why I'm not calling it a Cup and Handle pattern instead. One reason - The right rounding bottom is more than 50% the cups height. Hence the stop loss will be wider, and the take profit will be extended higher than normal. I'll update this analysis, once we have seen a confirmed breakout, close above and a new candle opening above the resistance.
FSR - Breaks out of 42 week triangleLooking at the FirstRand, we may derive the following from the weekly chart:
1. A noticeable technical pattern had been formed over the past 40+ weeks.
2. Price is trading outside of the triangle.
3. Note the weekly candle hasn't closed yet.
4. A solid close above 72 should take us back to the 2018 high.
5. As always - maintain your risk management.
Let's see what happens.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
RMI Is About To Make A MoveRand Merchant Investment (RMI) Holdings is an investment holding company with a portfolio of insurance and investment products targeted at the commercial, corporate, retail and public sector. The group’s history can be traced back to 2010 with the spinning off of insurance assets from Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) Holdings, FirstRand and Remgro. RMI Holdings shares were subsequently listed separately on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), although RMB Holdings and RMI Holdings still share the same management team.
Technicals
On the weekly time frame, we can see a corrective structure formation, indicated in pink. The daily time frame, indicated in blue, shows a 5 wave corrective structure which has completed. This would indicate that there should be a break to the upside soon. This break will be the start of wave 4 on the weekly structure.
Waiting for the pull back to get long on FirstRand.FirstRand Limited is a South African financial services provider which provides services through a portfolio of leading franchises including Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), First National Bank (FNB), Wesbank and Ashburton Investments.
With FirstRand shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Namibian Stock Exchange, the group is one of the largest financial institutions in South Africa, offering an all-ecompassing variety of financial services ranging from corporate, investment, retail, personal and commercial banking, to installment finance, insurance and investment management.
FirstRand operates in eight other African countries: Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, Zambia, Tanzania and Nigeria. The group also has offices in India, China, Dubai and London. FirstRand has high levels of surplus capital for investment across the African continent, allowing it to expand its geographic reach and revenue streams, to the benefit of those who buy the shares.
Technical
I am expecting to see a reversal at some point soon for the completion of wave 3 to the downside. I am however not interested in the short at this stage and will wait for the low at the end of wave 1 to break before I will be looking for an entry to the upside.