BTC Falls Below $29k on Flag BreakdownBitcoin is back below FWB:29K this morning after a flag breakdown and failed attempt to hold above $30k in July. Price is now trending below the short MAs(8,21,34) with the short MAs crossing bearish in late July. Price is testing the 100ma which rests near $25.5k, a failure to hold there will likely lead to a test of the rising trendline and 200ma in the FWB:27K area. Should diagonal support and the 200ma fail to prop up price we'll likely see a continued move lower and test of horizontal support near FWB:25K as a violation of the diagonal support line will indicate that the uptrend in price since early 2023 has exhausted.
The PPO indicator has been in a decline since early July with the green PPO line falling and trending below the purple signal line. This indicates short-term bearish momentum. Both lines have now crossed below the 0 level indicating bearish momentum in the intermediate to long-term. As long as the green PPO line is below the purple signal line, and below the 0 level, we can expect momentum to favor the bears.
The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line has been in decline since early July with the RSI trending below the 50 level, below the purple signal line and trending in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands which all indicate a bearish trend in the short-term. The RSI is now crossing below the 40 level which indicates a potential shift to intermediate to long-term bearish trend. When the RSI is trending between 20-60 the overall trend in price is considered bearish.
For now, the overall outlook and expectation for price is bearish with a continued move lower the likely move. Keep an eye on on the 100ma, a violation of that to the downside will confirm bearish bias and lead to tests of the rising trendline and 200ma, a failure to hold above those will increase the bearish outlook.
