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NQ - still (cautiously) bullish despite the volatilityDespite all the uncertainties and volatility in the market, the US indices especially Nasdaq has been resilient. Nasdaq has led the run up since the start of this year and as long as NQ continues to be in the lead among the 3 major indices (namely NQ, SPX an DJI), the market could remain overall bullish. The most recent "fearful" event (collapse of SVB) last week brought Nasdaq down briefly below it's 200 day MA but the reversal back up was just as quick once this problem was deemed contained. The new support is now established at 11700 (just slightly below the 50% fibonacci retracement of it's bullish AB swing, or 200 points (1.7%) below its 200 day MA @ 11900) The weekly chart painted a clearer view of it's bigger direction: A basing formation that has begun since hitting "the" low last October and a strong rally that ensued since the start of this year. Then a protracted 50% pullback of this rally in the past 6 weeks forming a potential "bull flag". A break out of this flag will be a good start that the upward momentum is continuing. Nasdaq first traded above the 200 day MA on 26 Jan and had retested this MA several times since (very briefly each time). This 200 day MA is hence still proving to be a support so far (though it has dipped briefly below that again last Friday on "panic"). As long as Nasdaq can continue to stay above the 200 day MA, then mid term trend is likely still up (worst case, the bull could be sluggish and choppy). Should FED raise interest rate again next week, then we could have another knee jerk sell off. However that could also mean that the economy isn't weak enough for Fed to want to stop raising the rates, it's a Goldilock situation. But let's see how the market reacts (once the knee jerk reaction, if any, begins to fade). The longer term bulls would be better off sitting tight or buying the dips unless we see a clear break below the 200 day MA. Short term trader will probably love this volatile market trading both ways. p/s SPX is now just under it's 200 day MA (red flag still), the coast will be clearer (for the bulls) if SPX could also start to have a close above this MA. Let's see. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Juliac
BTC/USD Daily Timeframe - Maybe Quasimodo Level Hi Dears Today let's analyze the bitcoin chart by RTM Method and in the daily timeframe. If you look carefully to this chart, you can see the resistance level (SR Line) at around 21500 then the FTX news cause the market to fall sharply to around 15500. This level was broken on 17 Jan 2023 and the price bounced sharply. The FL is made and we can see that there is a pullback to this FL zone on 10 Feb 2023. This FL was Engulfed 3 days ago and the price returns to its uptrend. The important thing is that the FL is engulfed clearly by the price so we have to take our bearish scenario. Also the Quasimodo Pattern is creating and we have to wait for this pattern to be completed. we engulfed the bottom of the left shoulder and a head is seen. When the price reaches the Kink zone, we have to wait for trigger or signal bar. Then we make short at this level. Becarefull that we have to see the trigger and then go short. Sincerely Hosein Poursaei
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by hosein-9879
Possible beginning of a new bearish leg for SPXSummary: Main bearish trend (dotted teal downtrend line) Reversal attempt in progress (purple uptrend line) 200-SMA breakout in jan-2023 Failure to continue the breakout (failed bull flag - orange lines) Arrow #3 as a good entry option for a bear trade. Possible beginning of a new bearish leg, aligned with the main trend Possibility to surpass the last low (oct-13-2022). Set target @3,330.00. Timeframe expected: 3 to 4 months. Detailed explanation: 2022 was a very bearish year for stock markets, and prices have navigated under the 200-days simple moving average (200-SMA) for the most part of the year. On the other hand, the first months of 2023 had some attempts of breakout to this widely known indicator. By December, 2022, prices tried to break-up the 200-SMA, but failed, then pulled back and tried a new breakout in January, 2023, that succeeded and provided some hope for a reversal. Arrow #1 is signaling the top of this bullish leg. After this, prices developed a little bull flag (orange lines) , near a resistance level. I have been closely following the price movement on this flag, to try to catch a trading opportunity, bullish or bearish. The bullish case was the most evident, and would happen with the breakout of the flag, confirming the continuation of the main trend reversal. But if it didn’t come true, prices could continue on a longer range or even breakdown the 200-SMA, providing, hence, a bearish trade. It turned out that the second case is being developed. On February 21st the bull flag was undone, by a very bearish -2% candle, then some days passed and the 200-SMA offered a support for the prices, this movement came along with some doubt candles (tiny ranges, long wicks), their in the area near arrow #2. This arrow points specifically to a bullish engulfing candle, that signaled a possible return of the bull and that the 200-SMA would indeed sustain the prices. After that, a bullish candle confirmed the engulfing pattern, and I considered that now it was a “make or break” situation, that either had to continue with strong buyings or finally give away and return to the main bearish trend (dotted teal downtrend line) . The second scenario happened, with a classical shooting star candle denoting a top, indicated by arrow #3 and followed by a relevant -1.53% bearish candle. I consider it can turn out to be the beginning of a new bearish leg in favor of the main market trend. If it breakdown the 200-SMA (and the previous bottom, of arrow #2) we will probably be full gas back to the bearish trend, reverting that secondary bullish trend indicated by the purple line. Predicting the future is impossible, but trading is a probability game, and to my criteria the odds are high enough to make a bet now. So, I started a trade yesterday near the market close. The stop zone is a little above the high of the shooting star candle of mar-06-2023, and my target is @3,300.00, I chose this number considering that this is a movement with the main trend, and that the last low (oct-13-2022) is usually surpassed in this kind of situation. PS: I know there’s a whole FED policy/interest rates discussion going on, and that it provides much of the ultimate reasons for the market movements I described, but I will stick to technical analysis here and to the principle that the chart sums it all up, hence I considered only price patterns in my analysis.
SP:SPXShort
by thessia_
1
Potential bear flag on NZD/USDThe combination of hawkish Fed speak and firmer inflation has seen the US dollar strengthen overnight. But we're interested in shorting the Kiwi dollar against it, given yesterday's lower forecasts for 2 and 3-year inflation forecasts by RBNZ. It should be noted that RBNZ hold their monetary policy meeting on Wednesday February the 22nd, and there has been call for a 50 or 75bp hike. But that doesn't mean it can't dip lower ahead of the meeting, even if they do go for another aggressive hike - especially if Fed members continue to read from the same hawkish script. NZD/USD has spent nearly 7 days within a sideways channel / consolidation, after an aggressive bearish reversal from its YTD high. A double top has formed around 0.6400 to suggest demand resides in the area, so the bias is now for a bear-flag breakout in line with the momentum which took it into consolidation. - Bears can either seek a break of the cycle low, or the channel around 0.6294 to assume bearish continuation. - The lows around 0.6200 make a likely target for bears and risks a corrective bounce - The eventual target projected form the bearish flag is around 0.6120
Short
by CityIndex
Gold - Too good to be true?Hey fellows!!! Gold is still pushing down, On the lower TF we gat what looks like to be a couple of bearish flags breakouts going on. After gold has been trading in a tight ascending range all week, it finally broke the flag down yeasterday following US news, And today, it came back to retest the 1870 level and again, US news kicked in! So here are we now, breaking another flag, to, maybe, go get the 1830ish + level where gold could find some support, so that would be a great target, Reasons that make me think of a fall until the Target Area: 1) Gold getting a lot of selling pressure 2) It broke a bearish flag yesterday, and retested it today 3) It's breaking another flag right now 4) It retested 1870 with an ugly "not in the textbooks" inside bar on H2, nice wicks on H4, several engulfings on H1 5) 1870 was also the 50% fib retracement of the last impulse down move 6) the break of the mother bar in H2 is a signal for a sell, like were the past two H4 candles as well, Ok well again we will see what the market decides to do but hey gold, that a lots of facts that go in favor of a meltdown! Even just temporary, there's only one thing, the 1850 level is on the way. Price bounced on it once, so, it's gat to make it trought otherwise we might see another restet of 1870. But then after that, ther'es virtually no resistance all the way to the Target Area, knowing that there's an imbalance if you look left on gibber TF The whole thing about it is, is it too good to be true or, is it like sometimes it's just like in the textbooks? Market will tell :) Thanks for reading Cheers and happy trading!!!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by aemerydufoug
2
XAUUSD Like everybody knows Gold has been on the fall lately, responding to dollar strengh A bearish flag is forming on the lower timeframes, we can spot it with the H2 candlesticks, and it's very well detailled on M15-M30. I've put two alerts, one on the green trendline, another on the red, If price breaks higher, then I'll look for entries around the 1900 level after the retracement is done, a bearish pin bar, a bearish engulfing, or an inside bar in the zone If price breaks lower, then i'll look for a break that involves a M15-M30 closed candle on the other side of the red trendine, and place the stop loss above the structure Cheers and trade safe!!!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by aemerydufoug
DXY - 4 HOUR - HIGH & TIGHT FLAG PATTERN BREAKOUTThe DXY has recently been trading in a tight range & has created what is one of the BEST technical setups in the market - the High & Tight Flag Pattern. In this video i'll explain what that pattern is along with 3 ways to potentially trade it. If you enjoyed the video please do me a favor & hit that like button, also please leave any questions, comments or views below as I do go through & read every one. Wishing you a great rest of your trading week & until next time PLAN YOU TRADE, TRADE YOUR PLAN - Akil
TVC:DXYLong
by Akil_Stokes
4
GOLD: bearish pattern created Hey guys, last week I was bullish on gold, but after the recent PA I changed my bias to short. -First, the price formed the so-called "Bearish Flag" formation, this is a pattern that is a trend continuation and the TP is the duplication from the initial leg. -Second, looking at the DXY I am more for a strong dollar for the near future judging by the recent candles and the strength of the momentum. I won't be rushing to enter a position because gold and DXY are at a very indecisive point right now, so I will wait for a good correction that will at least give me a good RR
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JivkoXristov