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potential triangle breakout or bull flag on Bitcoinlet's analyze the potential triangle breakout or bull flag on the Bitcoin chart with the current price of 34,300 USD. Retest of Support at 31,800 USD: After a downward breakout, it's possible that the price may retest the newly formed support level. This is a common occurrence, as the price checks whether the new support holds. It's crucial to closely monitor whether the price respects this level as support or breaks below it. Bull Flag Pattern: If there's an upward breakout from a "bull flag" pattern, it's a positive signal for a potential price increase. A bull flag is typically seen as a consolidation period followed by an upward trend. When Bitcoin's price rises above the upper boundary of the bull flag, it may indicate an impending upward movement. Please note that cryptocurrency investment is highly risky, and technical analysis is just one tool for market analysis. It's important to consider fundamental factors and have proper risk management strategies in place. Additionally, staying updated with current news and events related to Bitcoin is crucial, as these can significantly impact the market situation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RC_CRYPTO_SURFER
Advanced Bull Flag ConceptsHave you ever wondered why price action sometimes forms a bull flag pattern? Have you ever wondered if there is a way to predict whether a bull flag will break out before it actually does so? In this post, I will try to address these questions by presenting a couple of theories about the nature of bull flags. Bull Flag Theories (1) The flag structure of a bull flag tends to form along Fibonacci levels, with the ideal flag proportion being an approximated golden ratio to the flagpole; and (2) Fibonacci and regression analyses can provide useful insight into whether price will successfully break out of its bull flag pattern, sometimes long before price even attempts to do so. I will try my best to clearly explain both theories in detail below. Note: Although this analysis is also generally true for bull pennants, bear flags, and bear pennants, to keep things simple I will focus solely on bull flags. Additionally, this analysis is generally true across timeframes. Part I - The Basics of a Bull Flag First, let's begin with the basics. As shown in the image below, bull flags form when an asset is in a strong uptrend. The uptrend forms the flagpole of the bull flag structure. The flag structure forms when price consolidates, usually in a falling trend. This consolidation phase is often characterized by price oscillators rotating back down while the price retraces only a small part of its prior upward move. From a market psychology perspective, bull flags often form when most market participants who bought the asset continue to hold it expecting the uptrend to resume, while only a minority of market participants sell (or short the asset) as its price corrects downward. The bull flag pattern is a continuation pattern because it reflects the market's general expectation that price will eventually resume its upward move. Once the price definitively breaks above the upper channel of the flag (often with strong momentum and high volume), the bull flag pattern is validated. Upon breakout, the expected move up is equal to the vertical height of the flagpole. Part II - The flag structure of a bull flag tends to form along Fibonacci levels, with the ideal flag proportion being an approximated golden ratio to the flagpole Here's where things begin to get interesting. Below is the golden ratio. Two quantities, a and b (where a > b ), form the golden ratio if their ratio is the same as the ratio of their sum to the larger of the two quantities. (See the equation below) The equation above shows the Greek letter phi which denotes the golden ratio. Phi is equivalent to a/b when such ratio is also equivalent to (a + b)/a. Although bull flags can take various forms, it is my hypothesis, based on chart analysis and research, that the most perfectly structured bull flags (ones that also have the highest probability of successful breakouts) occur when the flag forms a golden ratio to the flagpole. Mathematically, this means that the vertical height of the flagpole is equivalent to (a + b) and the vertical height (i.e. the width) of the flag is equivalent to b. This is also to say that price retraces down to the 0.382 Fibonacci level as measured by applying Fibonacci retracement levels along the flagpole (or to the 0.618 point on the vertical height of the flagpole if one measures from the bottom to top). I realize that this can be quite confusing, so let’s walk through some visualizations. Let's first visualize this hypothesis using the golden rectangle. Below is an image of the golden rectangle. A golden rectangle is composed of a square (with sides equal to a) and a smaller golden rectangle (with width equal to b and length equal to a). Now let's rotate the golden rectangle to better visualize the hypothesized flag pattern. The bull flag is hypothetically an approximation of the golden rectangle, whereby the width of the flag is in a golden ratio approximation to the length of the flagpole. In the illustration below, there are multiple bull flags contained within a Fibonacci spiral. The spiral is made up of golden rectangles, with each larger golden rectangle containing a smaller golden rectangle inside it. The smaller golden rectangle is the flag structure, and the length of the larger golden rectangle is the flagpole. One can think of the Fibonacci spiral and the golden rectangles as a series of bull flags that build on top of each other in a repeating pattern. In this diagram, price is represented by the increasing length of the sides of each golden rectangle. In other words, the price on a chart can be seen as spiraling higher after each bull flag breakout. Of course, not all bull flags form a structure that approximates the golden ratio, but it is my belief that in forming a bull flag, price action is aspiring to achieve as close of a golden ratio approximation as it can. I believe that the bull flags that best approximate the golden ratio structure also present the highest probability for a successful break out. To learn more about Fibonacci spirals, including the golden spiral that Fibonacci spirals approximate, you can check out this Wikipedia article: en.wikipedia.org Part III - Fibonacci and regression analyses can provide useful insight into whether price will successfully break out of its bull flag pattern, sometimes long before price even attempts to do so. To see how Fibonacci levels and regression analysis can give insight into whether a bull flag will break out or break down before it does so, let's consider an example. Let’s consider the massive bull flag that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed in 2021. In 2021, the monthly chart of IWM formed what appeared to be a bull flag, as shown below. Now let's see why Fibonacci analysis and regression analysis were warning that this bull flag was not likely to break out successfully. First, IWM's price did not retrace to a Fibonacci level before attempting a breakout (when using the pole as the Fibonacci retracement reference point). In the chart below, we see that price tried to break out, without even so much as retracing down to the highest Fibonacci retracement level: $196.71. By not undergoing Fibonacci retracement, price did not give its oscillators the opportunity to rotate back down fully. Instead, price remained overextended at the time it attempted to break out. Now let's look at regression analysis. Below is a log-linear regression channel that contains IWM's entire price history. As noted in my prior posts, a regression channel simply indicates how far above or below the mean (or average) price an asset's current price is trading. In the regression channel above, the red line is the mean price, the upper channel line is 2 standard deviations above the mean, and the lower channel line is 2 standard deviations below the mean. A successful breakout of the bull flag would have taken IWM's price way above its regression channel, to a level that is too many standard deviations above its mean price for us not to question the probability of the breakout’s success. Achieving the full measured move up would have been extremely unlikely, assuming that the regression channel is valid and that price tends to revert back to its mean over time. What was more likely than a breakout was a breakdown, and a reversion back to the mean, which is what ended up happening with IWM. Another interesting note about IWM’s bull flag is that it presented a false breakout in November 2021. This false breakout was presenting multiple warnings signs including being a UTAD test of a Wyckoff Distribution. As shown below, however, another important clue that the November 2021 breakout would likely fail was that the breakout was not confirmed when comparing IWM to the money supply (M2SL). See the chart below. One can interpret this chart to mean that in late 2021, IWM’s price was rising because the central bank was increasing the money supply, but not due to improving strength of the underlying companies that comprise the ETF. Using the money supply as a ratio to an asset elucidates the true inherent strength of the asset's value. To understand more about why the money supply can be used in this manner, you can check out my post below. Part IV - Additional Comments I have a few additional comments. I usually use Fibonacci levels on a log-scale chart to identify Fibonacci spirals because Fibonacci spirals are logarithmic spirals. However, when using Fibonacci levels based on log scale, the ratios, percentages and numbers, can seem quite confusing because they are logarithmically adjusted. If you choose to replicate my process, please be mindful of this. While using log-scale charts is critical for higher timeframes (e.g. the monthly chart or higher), I have not identified much benefit to using it on shorter timeframes. In a prior post, I noted that Plug Power (PLUG) is currently forming one of the best-looking log-scale, golden ratio bull flags I have ever seen. If my above hypotheses are true, I would expect to see PLUG move dramatically higher in the years to come. For more information about PLUG, you can read my post linked below. (This is not a solicitation to buy PLUG. Please do your own research and carefully consider all risks.) At the risk of making this post too long and too dense, I just want to briefly note that it is also my hypothesis, based on observation and research, that the golden ratio is where many S-curve dilemmas are solved. If you don't know what an S-curve dilemma is and you'd like to read about this you can see my post below about Jumping S-Curves . In short, an S-curve dilemma is another way of conceptualizing the question of whether a bull flag will break out or break down. I hope that someone finds value in this post. I spent a lot of time studying, researching, analyzing, and cogitating the mathematical nature of price action to reach many of the conclusions here. Thank you for your valuable time in reading my post.
Editors' picks
AMEX:IWMEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
53
Camex Ltd - Flag Pattern (Weekly)Risky trade but a possibility of big returns between 20 to 100% possible in CAMEX Ltd Technical Analysis: There are multiple resistance but they have been tested multiple times and now a breakout from flag pattern could give higher returns CMP: 30.38 Targets and Stop loss on the graph itself. Monthly chart also looks strong considering it has been in a range for over a decade a breakout would mean a multibagger (Time frame for this could be more than a year) On Daily it looks interesting and seems good support and candlestick pattern Very Bullish on this stock Also fundamentally looks a decent pick But trade according to your risk, Not sebi registered
BSE:CAMEXLTDLong
by VArun1000
💯 AMD not a lot of sell pressure down here. Watch itFor a swing I'll try to get a good entry on AMD. I've been trading it up and down for 2 weeks now. See my ideas. At 108 I said it should get rejected and fall back to support. We are at 103.XX now. I ideally want 99-101 for a long entry but I don't think there's too much selling pressure here anymore. Watch it above 104.60 for a breakout. We all see the flag on AMD daily chart: Follow and like this idea for more insights. Welcome to join my community! Thanks for reading.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by kingdips
📈 AMD back @ flag's top trend. Watch for breakout/ rejectionJust a recap of this trade so far: Posted this @ 108 calling for a bearish rejection. After it failed to bounce from 101-103, I was certain it'd head over to 95-98, or the bottom TL at most. When we hit the bottom TL, I called for a buy signal @ 95. Will tag all these for proof. Now we are at the top TL, which is the ultimate PT from 95. We hit this in 2 days. +10% in 2 days. That's right. When you wait for swings to come to you, you will make the most money. Here's the alert @ 95-96: We waited a week or two for this perfect bounce. That's the best way to swing. One way to swing is to buy, buy more, buy more, and buy some more. Another way, is to wait for the right moment and wait for the trade to come to you. If you miss it, you miss it. All good, there's tons of trades on the market. NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA
NASDAQ:AMD
by kingdips
2
Bitcoin - 39k in December! (last chance to buy low) Bitcoin will hit 39k this year in December 2023, according to my technical analysis and calculations. This new analysis is on the 12h chart and shows very important technical data! First, we need to consider the major yellow descending trendline. This trendline has been destroyed by the bulls, and we also had a successful retest of it! This is your chance to buy / long BTC at the current low price. Thank me later! Before BTC hit 39k, we had some resistance on the way up. Of course, we are not going to go to 39k in a straight line. The first resistance is the 0.618 FIB of the previous wave, which is at  29167 USDT. We also have a POC of the previous structure near this point, so it's a big deal. There is no next resistance until 31804, which is the major previous swing low. I don't know how about you, but I am prepared for the bull market that is coming in the next few weeks until January! Expect January to be a bearish month. From the Elliott Wave perspective, I see this uptrend from 24900 to 28500 as a strong nest (1-2-1-2) or an expanding leading diagonal wedge (1-2-3-4-5). Both of them are bullish patterns and support the start of the bull market! Let me know in the comment section (right now) what you think about BTC and have you bought it. Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"! This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and privately.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
109
BTC Liquidity: Will This Time's Trend Reversal Be Real?The Liquidity Lure: It's not uncommon for price action to accumulate liquidity near significant support levels or trendlines. Traders often place their buy orders just above these lines, hoping for a quick bounce when prices approach. 🎣 A Second Chance at Reversal: Now, let's examine the intriguing aspect of this situation. We've seen liquidity left behind in the past, only for the market to disappoint and continue the downtrend. However, this time could be different. 🔄 The Case for Reversal: Market Sentiment: Cryptocurrency markets are notably influenced by market sentiment. If the sentiment shifts, it can trigger a genuine change in direction. 📈📉 Fundamentals: Keep an eye on fundamental factors that could drive demand for cryptocurrencies. News of adoption, institutional involvement, or regulatory clarity can play a pivotal role. 🏦💼 Technical Indicators: Look for confirmation from technical indicators such as higher lows, bullish candlestick patterns, or increased trading volume. 📊📈 Trading Strategy: Caution: While the signs may be encouraging, remain cautious. Wait for confirmation of the trend reversal before committing significant capital. 🚦 Risk Management: Always use risk management techniques, like setting stop-loss orders, to protect your investments. ⚖️ Diversification: Consider diversifying your portfolio to spread risk across different assets. 🌐 Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and unpredictability. While the presence of liquidity below a downtrend line offers hope, it doesn't guarantee a trend reversal. It's crucial to combine technical analysis, market sentiment, and sound risk management in your trading strategy. And remember, even in the world of crypto, patience can often be the key to success. 🗝️ Will this time be different? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure – it's a market that continually keeps us on our toes. 🌟 Trade with our closed community ! ❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
by AlexWhale
$AMD falling wedge to end today's action. Good signGood sign on NASDAQ:AMD with that falling wedge on the 15 min. When a stock's been hammered for no reason at all except market volatility, we usually try to look for bullish reversals or bullish signs to enter on a swing. Closing in a falling wedge is good. Doesn't ALWAYS pay off, but if you are swinging it likely means 4-12 weeks anyway, so it's relatively safe here. Also looking on the Daily chart, it's right on the bottom of the flag trendline: Follow for more insights.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by kingdips