USDJPY → Attempting a trend change. Retest 149.0FX:USDJPY is testing range resistance in the rally phase caused by Friday's news - strong NFP report. The fundamental backdrop within the short-to-medium term is set...
From the opening of the session a small correction is forming, the aim of which may be a retest of the support or imbalance zone and consolidation of energy before a further breakout. The market structure is locally bullish on the background of the dollar growth. The Japanese authorities are still silent about their actions to strengthen the national currency (either they think about it or don't think about it :) ), so traders are increasing JPY sales in order to buy USD.
The first retest of the resistance at 149.4 failed (bounce). Emphasis on 0.5 fibo or 147.2 support from which the growth may resume...
Resistance levels: 147.38
Support levels: 147.5, 147.2, 146.15
On the chart there are preconditions for the change of the local trend to a bullish one, the fundamental background is favorable for this. If the bulls will keep the defense above the support and continue to test the resistance with a breakdown target, then in the short-term-senior perspective we can catch the forging of the impulse to 152.0.
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FLAT
GOLD → Consolidation at bullrun. Shall we update ATH?FX:XAUUSD is forming the lower boundary of consolidation within the local correction. False breakdown of MA-50 and support at 2713 activate buying. Bulls are aggressively buying gold at every opportunity
Uncertainty around the US presidential election, market caution ahead of key US earnings reports are reviving demand for traditional safe-haven gold. In terms of the upcoming interest rate cut, the market has probably already resigned itself to the most likely 0.25% cut. Also, we continue to monitor the difficult economic environment in the markets of China... The Middle East conflict is still at the same level, with no signs of escalation or de-escalation, but it should not be overlooked.
The metal is forming a sideways range of 2739 - 2713 - consolidation. A primary retest of resistance could trigger a correction to 2728, or deeper, but with a high probability, gold could continue to rise
Resistance levels: 2739, 2750
Support Levels: 2728, 2713
Price may test the ATH in the near term. If the bulls break the resistance and hold the defense above 2739, gold may continue to rise.
If a bounce or false breakout is formed, the price may test the nearest support. Next, we need to watch for a reaction. If gold will return to retest 2739, then the chances of a breakout and further growth will grow!
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GOLD → Realization continues, risks increase!FX:XAUUSD is at its highs. The price continues to rally and update the highs from the opening of the session on Monday. No selling, but buying should be cautious!
Traders are waiting for the Fed officials to speak in the nearest future. The main issues are inflation, interest rate cuts and the US economy.
Optimism about Chinese stimulus, as well as ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran are supporting gold prices (In times of geopolitical turmoil, investors prefer to rush to traditional safe-haven gold prices)
With each passing day, the impact of the US election race is appearing more and more. The probability of a Trump victory is rising. Trump's fiscal and trade policies are seen as inflationary and positive for the US dollar
Resistance levels: 2736, 2750
Support levels: 2732, 2724, 2713
There is no news in the next few days, the fundamnetal background remains the same, so gold may continue to rise. The focus is on the nearest support zones for realization of purchases. At the moment the range 2736 - 2724 is formed
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GOLD → 2685 breakout trigger. News ahead. A new conflict! FX:XAUUSD stops correlating with the dollar. The price is testing the key resistance at 2685. Bulls continue to test this area and accumulate the potential for a breakout attempt. Important news on jobless claims and retail sales are ahead
China's economic problems have a negative impact on gold as the country is the world's top gold consumer. At the same time, markets are resorting to profit taking on long USD positions ahead of the release of the most important economic data - the US retail sales report.
BUT! Another escalation, but in another part of the world: North Korea has declared South Korea an enemy and completely cut off transportation links with it. The markets are clearly not going to let this fact pass their ears.....
Technically, the buyers do not retreat from their intentions and continue to test the resistance with a breakdown target. A pre-breakdown consolidation and several possible scenarios are forming, no matter how many people don't like it.
Resistance levels: 2685
Support levels: 2674.5, 2665, 2658
A breakdown of resistance will trigger an impulse, and this is a logical scenario based on the technical situation on H1 (ascending triangle, accumulation and compression to the level).
BUT! The news can have an unpredictable impact. If gold forms a false breakout and goes back to 2674, having updated this low, the price may go even lower (to 2665, 2658), for liquidity, before returning to the way north
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NEIROUSDT → Someone's interested in the coin. Consolidation...BINANCE:NEIROUSDT is a rather interesting coin, which looks quite promising and stronger than the general market. Consolidation is forming on the background of the bullish trend. A good hint of the trend continuation...
The coin is moving in steps. The pullback is forming the lower boundary of further consolidation, the purpose of which is to accumulate the potential for the continuation of the trend. Exceptionally bullish character of the movement...
Emphasis on the borders of the current consolidation 2.182 - 1.835. The extreme support retest ended with the confirmation of the accumulation boundary without updating the local minimum, which indicates that the correction (most likely) is coming to an end. The reason indicating the readiness of the price to leave the accumulation and move to the realization phase will be a prolonged trade near the resistance.
Resistance levels: 0.002182
Support levels: 0.0018355
Consolidation continues, I am waiting for the moment when the coin sticks to the resistance and starts to consolidate between 2.18 - 2.07. In this case, the coin will move to the formation of a pre-breakout consolidation with the aim to breakout and further growth. I don't exclude the fact that NEIRO may go to 1.517 for liquidity before continuing its growth.
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FILUSDT → Weakness in altcoins will manifest itself in decliningBINANCE:FILUSDT after a false breakdown of the 3.800 range resistance is giving signs towards the continuation of the decline. The coin is in a global and local downtrend and there are no reasons to change direction. The focus is on the support of 3.688.
Altcoins are extremely weak on the back of bitcoin's strong rally. The dominance of the flagship is currently at record highs, and the altcoin season has not arrived and apparently will not come anytime soon.
Bitcoin is testing strong resistance zones and cannot grow all the time. Any short-term reaction can affect the entire cryptocurrency market, which will color the coins in the red.
Support levels: 3.688
Resistance levels: 3.800
Technically, relative to 3.688 a descending triangle is forming after a false breakdown of the range resistance. It is a rather strong conglomerate.
Breakout of 3.688 and price consolidation below this area will provoke further selling and price decline to 3.4 - 3.3
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EURUSD → Active sale. Emphasis on 1.0900FX:EURUSD continues to update lows since the fundamental background and uptrend change. Price is descending in a calm and progressive manner, which generally indicates the strength of the trend...
A strong drop from the distribution phase without any pullbacks is an indicator of a strong trend. There is a key liquidity zone ahead, which could form a surge in volume and liquidity that could lead to a small correction. For example to 1.095 - 0.7 fibo. On the Daily chart we see the realization of a failed breakout (false breakout), a strong distribution is formed. The liquidity at 1.077 - 1.067 may become the target of such a movement
Resistance levels: 1.095, 1.100
Support levels: 1.089, 1.077
There is no news until Wednesday, so the fundamental background remains the same. The market may stop and go into consolidation, but with a high probability the fall after the breakthrough of 1.089 will continue...
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GOLD → Will the bears allow the bulls to go through ATH?FX:XAUUSD is growing unpredictably towards ATH. The market did not react in any way to last week's US fundamental data and now the price is not reacting to strong levels and liquidity zones. Ahead of ATH after 3 weeks of forming...
Investors remain cautious as the US Fed is expected to follow a path of moderate interest rate cuts (skipping a cut in November, or a 0.25% cut)
The gold price is actively supported by the tense situation in the Chinese markets and lower US Treasury yields, which helps the gold price to take another leap towards the ATH.
Now all eyes will be on Thursday when China holds a press conference and the US retail sales report is released
Resistance Levels: 2680-2685
Support levels: 2665, 2658, 2645
Technically, I don't think that the market will let the resistance breakout happen the first time. The pullback from 2685, formed 3 weeks ago, was made on the back of strong economic data, so the huge pool of liquidity above 2685 can be defended quite aggressively by the bears.
Technically, there are no signs for the continuation of growth. They may appear after the retest, but it will become clear after the fact.
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GBPUSD → Support breakdown. CPI in the UK is declining... FX:GBPUSD confirms the bearish market structure. The price is breaking the support. Fundamental data is favorable for further continuation of the fall.
UK Inflation:
m/m = 0% (expectation +0.1% / previously +0.3%)
YoY = +1.7% (expected +1.9% / previously +2.2%)
Core CPI = +3.2% y/y (expected +3.4% / previously +3.6%)
The USD index are rising on strong US economic data (last week's potential). All these data together have a corresponding impact on the currency pair, which breaks the support of the uptrend. A price consolidation below 1.3000 (strong psychological level) will open the way to 1.28-1.26.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2938
Resistance levels: 1.309
Selling on the currency pair is intensifying, the price is entering the risk zone and the buyers are getting even more nervous... In the short term, a retest of the previously broken trend support is possible, followed by a fall towards 1.28-1.26
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GOLD - Price can exit from triangle and rise to $2700 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to flat, where it some time traded near support area and then fell to bottom part.
After this, Gold made upward impulse, thereby exiting from flat and breaking $2530 level, and then entered to triangle.
Soon, price broke $2625 level and reached resistance line of triangle, after which made correction.
Price some time traded near $2625 level and even fell to support line of triangle, but soon backed up, making a fake breakout.
Also recently, Gold made a gap and now trades close to resistance line of triangle, so, I think it can make a little correction firstly.
Then price turns around and bounces up to $2700, thereby exiting from a triangle pattern.
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GOLD → Will the rally end with a FB? 2670 - liquidity...FX:XAUUSD is growing together with the dollar, the correlation cooled down after the change of fundamental background. The range of 2670 - 2600 is being formed. The metal is rallying to resistance for liquidity.
Geopolitical issues. High tensions in the Middle East as well as rising tensions in East Asia between China and Taiwan are worrying investors looking for safe havens.
Last week showed not so good economic data for gold. The dollar rose very strongly during that time. But gold gold traders were most likely paying attention to the dovish remarks by Fed policymakers about lowering interest rates....
Technically gold is in a sideways range and is testing liquidity above 2660. The bears are likely to give a not so warm welcome....
Resistance levels: 2663, 2670, 2685
Support levels: 2650, 2637, 2623
Strong movement from the bottom of the range reaches its upper boundary. Technically, the price has no potential to break through the strong range resistance. A false breakout is possible, the purpose of which may be to capture liquidity, followed by a decline. The situation may be broken by unexpected geopolitical or economic news, but at the moment there is no such news
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EURO - Price can turn around and start decline to support lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded inside flat, where it declined to resistance area, which coincided with $1.1125 resistance level.
Next, price bounced and tried to grow, but failed and started to decline inside falling channel, exiting from flat.
In channel, EUR broke $1.1125 level at once and continued to move down, until it reached $1.0955 level.
Price some time traded in one more resistance area and later broke $1.0955 level too, after which started to trades below.
A not long time ago, price reached resistance line of channel, so, I think that Euro can reach resistance level.
After this movement, price will turn around and start to decline to $1.0790 support line of falling channel.
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BITCOIN → The rally is manipulation. U-turn and down to 52K?BINANCE:BTCUSDT confirms the bearish market structure. After the 59K retest, the price rallies 7%. There is no technical or fundamental explanation for this market manipulation: $6K down, $ 4K up, $5K down, $ 4K up within the last two weeks...
Bitcoin is still trading within a sideways range of 65K - 52K. The last resistance retest ended in a false breakdown and a price drop of 11% to 59K. Also, the local change of the market character (price confirms the downtrend) to bearish and formation of the downtrend channel (I remind about the downtrend on D1-W1) plays an important role.
Emphasis on resistance 63400, 64130, 65000, possible retest or false breakdown followed by downside realization as we still have not reached the key liquidity zones....
Resistance levels: 63400, 64130
Support levels: 61320, 59000
The price is testing the resistance zone as part of the rally. There is no accumulation or technical potential to overcome this area for further growth. Within the bearish trend, the buyer does not show dominant signs and with high probability it will be stopped in the key zone. A reversal and decline to the lower zone of the sideways range is possible...
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GOLD - Price can little move up and then back up flatHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price bounced from $2625 level and rose to $2670 level, after which made small correction.
Then price made movement up, higher than $2670 level, but soon it turned around and started to decline inside wedge.
Price fell to support line, which coincided with $2625 level, and later bounced up to resistance line, where some time traded near.
Next, Gold made fake breakout of this line and some time later bounced down, thereby exiting from wedge.
Also, price broke $2625 level and started to trades inside flat, where at the moment it trades close to $2625 level.
So, I think that price can rise slightly higher than $2625 level and then fall to $2605 bottom part of flat.
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EURO - Price can grow to resistance area and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price fell to resistance area, but soon broke $1.1005 resistance level and entered to flat.
In flat, price in a short time rose to $1.1175 level, which coincided with one more resistance area.
Also, EUR entered to this area, but soon turned around and made correction movement to $1.1005 level.
Then price made upward impulse resistance area, which coincided with top part of flat, but soon started to decline.
Euro made fake breakout of $1.1175 level and fell near resistance line, exiting from flat and breaking $1.1005 level too.
In my mind, price can grow to resistance area and then it bounce down to $1.0850
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USDCAD → Breakout. One step away from distribution...FX:USDCAD makes an attempt to break through the resistance of the “wedge” consolidation on the background of a growing dollar, the reasons for which are economic data from the USA. NonFarm Payrolls are ahead!
On the weekly timeframe, the currency pair is bouncing off the support trendline and heading towards resistance, the pattern as a whole resembles an ascending triangle. But still it is a global sideways range. The movements in it are quite difficult and the price is dragging between the local levels. Ahead is the NFP report, which may become an engine for the price, and based on the assumptions from Wednesday and ADP NonFarm we can assume that on this background the growth of the dollar and the currency pair may continue.
Technically, the bulls are trying to hold the defense above the previously broken resistance. The impulse is beginning to form...
Resistance levels: 1.358, 1.364
Support levels: 1.353, 1.347
If the bulls keep the price in the new plane (buying zone), the price may reach the nearest targets quite quickly. If the news will be favorable, then in this case a rally to the distant targets may be formed. Unpredictable data will bring the currency pair back to the range and may bring the price down to 1.347
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GOLD → Support breakdown. The beginning of correction...FX:XAUUSD is entering the correction phase. The price is coming out of the consolidation downwards, and what we have been preparing for for the last few days has happened. Bears are trying to keep the defense below 2623....
Posted on October 8: The pressure from above is building. New lows...
Traders are waiting for the Fed meeting minutes to gauge the magnitude of the next interest rate cut, especially after Friday's strong US NFP data removed bets on a 0.5% rate cut. The FOMC meeting is likely to show a discussion on the outlook for the labor market and inflation, as well as further action on interest rates. Traders are still not turning their eyes away from the tense situation in the middle east, but one must realize that reacting to any action is a temporary action in the market...
Technically, on D1 we can see the beginning of the correction phase. Break of the strong level and fixing of the price below 2623. The market has defined a temporary outlook for itself.....
Resistance levels: 2623, 2627, 2631
Support levels: 2613, 2600, 2585
News can have an additional impact on the market, but it all depends on the context. At the moment I consider the price decline. The bears are holding 2623 and we can see how the price has consolidated below this area, which may provoke further selling....
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EURUSD → The realization phase isn't over. Emphasis on 1.095 ↓FX:EURUSD breaks the uptrend and prepares to continue falling due to the change of fundamental background, the reasons for which were strong economic data in the US. The price is in the realization phase...
The weekly timeframe clearly shows the forming sideways range (consolidation). The market failed to break the resistance of the channel, although a lot of effort was put on it (5 attempts on W1).
At the moment the currency pair is testing last week's low, it is also worth noting the fact of weekly candle closing - almost at the low. This is a rather good and promising sign for the continuation of the downward movement. Emphasis on the support at 1.095. Breakdown and consolidation of the price below this area will strengthen the decline to the intermediate bottom...
Support levels: 1.095, 1.0892
Resistance levels: 1.100, 1.1011, 1.1047
A pre-breakout consolidation is forming relative to support. Emphasis on the breakdown of the level and further decline to the zones of interest. As an unpredictable scenario we can have in mind a pullback to 1.100 and further decline...
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GOLD → The pressure from above is building. New lows...FX:XAUUSD stops testing local highs. Strong growth has stopped and the price is being squeezed between the boundaries of the narrowing consolidation. The exit of the price from the figure will be accompanied by an impulse...
Last week changed the general fundamental background, gold traders are getting nervous and moving into a phase of profit taking on the back of strong economic data. Ahead is the FOMC meeting where further steps to regulate the US economy will be discussed.
Technically, gold stops trying to update or test the highs, feeling pressure from above, but at the same time the price is probing the base from below, gradually updating the local lows. A gradually narrowing consolidation is forming on the chart and if there is a price exit from the figure, it will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2650, 2659
Support levels: 2632, 2623, 2613
I continue to hold that bears will continue to press the price, which will provoke the price exit downwards with further retest of 2623-2613-2600. But we need to keep an eye on the regulators' comments and the dollar's behavior...
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TONUSDT → Bulls dressing up as bears... ↓BINANCE:TONUSDT can't get out of the downtrend, facing a rather strong seller (or lack of buyers, amid fundamental problems). The coin is setting itself up for a further decline....
The trend change started to show back in July, with strong momentum being generated amid strong outflows due to the market crash following bitcoin manipulation. In Agusta, the coin faced another problem - Pavel Durov's court case, which had an extremely negative impact on the system.
At the moment, buyers are turning around and have no fundamental and technical strength against the bear. The price is forming a pre-breakdown base relative to the key support at 5.16. A break of this area will open the way to 4.5.
Resistance levels: 5.38, 5.44
Support levels: 5.16, 4.7, 4.5
Buyers are trying to hold 5.16, but the pressure of bears, increasing on the background of bitcoin correction, is increasing, the sellers' strength is growing, which provokes the first to leave the game, close or turn around. In the short term, I expect a breakdown of support and decline
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GOLD → Consolidation below the SMA. What was the impact of NFP?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating below previously crossed SMA50 & 200 after Friday's shakeout. A surprising NPF shook up the market. The dollar is rallying while gold is drawing downside resistance....
The main reason for a possible decline in gold prices is the weakening expectations of a 0.5% Fed interest rate cut in November. A very strong NFP report all but eliminated the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in November. The reading beat market expectations of 140K by a wide margin. Nevertheless, the price of gold managed to resist a corrective decline thanks to the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Traders are now looking forward to the upcoming Fed speech.
Gold is technically in the sideways range of 2685 - 2623. There is no actual direction, so you can trade between buy and sell levels....
Resistance levels: SMA, 2661, 2673
Support levels: 2639, 2631, 2623
Bears are likely to exert maximum strength in the resistance zone, the market may react by declining to the liquidity zones. There is a high enough probability of formation of a false breakout of resistance before further decline
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BITCOIN → The flirtation with MA-200 ended in failure. To 52K?BINANCE:BTCUSD failed in its attempt to break the daily MA-200 and 64-65K resistance. A retest of the previously broken range boundary and strong liquidity zone amid a global descending channel is forming. The crowd was in the majority, but...
On W1 the promising direction of the current trend is clearly visible. The price tested the upper boundary of the channel, but the bears pushed us down rather aggressively, making us realize that there is nothing to do in the zone above 65K yet.
One of the reasons for the btc drop we caught earlier: 94% of all BTC holders are now in profit. Dealers noted high activity in buying call options on BTC with a strike of $75000. There were also high sales of puts.
Trick question: How to make money if the crowd is buying?
Resistance levels: 62745, 64955
Support levels: 60K, 59250, 57700
A correction after the impulse is forming and the price may test the imbalance and liquidation zone. Having broken 62342 area earlier, we entered the panic zone, where sellers managed to grab a piece before further failure at 60K. Before the further fall, the price may go after these lucky sellers before the asset goes after the buyers on the background of the general trend. This would be considered a retest after breaking the structure. I do not see any reasons for growth beyond 64-65K at the moment, I am interested in the zone of 60K, 57K, 55K, 52K.
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GOLD → Ahead of NonFarm Payrolls. What to expect from gold?FX:XAUUSD is in consolidation with gradually narrowing local extrema. NonFarm Payrolls are ahead and traders are getting nervous about further movement. Up for renewal of highs or a long-awaited correction?
Before NFP, traders resorted to adjusting positions, taking profits on the US dollar rally (reasons: strong employment and PMI data from ISM). The encouraging data weakened bets on an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed. However, the decline in gold prices remains subdued due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The future direction of the gold price will be determined by the upcoming US employment data. Gold could move into a correction if NFP shows an upside surprise, which would impact the USD rally and strengthen bets for a 0.25% Fed rate cut in November. Conversely...
Resistance levels: 2665, 2673, 2685
Support levels: 2653, SMA 200 & 50, 2640
The SMAs are narrowing, which could also be a hint of a possible correction (if there is a crossover). Technically gold is ready for a correction, but fundamentally, unpredictable news may affect further growth. Analysts are inclined to the beginning of correction on the background of strong economic data of the first half of the week
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Regards R. Linda!