Bitcoin - New CME GAP! + All unfilled GAPS (cheat)
Bitcoin has created a new CME GAP between 28215 - 28265. It's also the POC of the consolidation structure, so it could be a good short-term trade when the price makes a pullback.
First, let me explain some important facts about CME gaps. CME Futures on Bitcoin started in December 2017. We had dozens of unfilled gaps from 2017 - 2023, and all of them have been filled. So the statistical probability of filling these gaps on Bitcoin is 100%. When the CME futures started, the huge bear market of 2017–2018 started, and Bitcoin crashed by 84%.
Let me remind you (if you forget it), that the major CME GAP between 20330 - 21110 is completely uncovered, and the question is when we will cover it. It can take a few weeks or a few months, or maybe later. Time is not important.
In total, we have 3 unfilled GAPs on the daily chart. One is above the current price between 34450 - 35180. Two are below the current price, between 28215 - 28265 and 20330 - 21110.
On the left side of the chart, you can see fair value GAPS on the spot market. These gaps tend to be filled if they are massive, and these gaps are extremely huge. In my opinion, we are going to go down sooner or later, fill them, and take liquidity below 15.5k. It could happen in Q4-2023 or Q1-2024 due to my calculations.
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This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
Thank you for reading!
FLAT
USDCAD, LONGPrice action is developing a flat formation which we may see one more leg down before the next impulse phase.
We can see a clear uptrend in the HTF which a long opportunity at the bottom of this structure giving is double bottoms would be a good opportunity to buy.
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DXY - Dollar comeback and stock market crash! (prepare for it)
The DXY index is currently sitting on the major support, and at this point, I think it's a good idea to speculate on a bounce from the support. As you can see, we have just retested the trendline on the monthly chart and retested wave (3) + wave 1.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, we are missing a final impulse wave upwards to complete this bullish cycle on the DXY index: 2008 - 2023(2024?). Use your Elliott Wave count to compare with my analysis.
The final wave 5 should end right above the previous wave 3 because of the wave 2 deep retracement. I do not expect any brutal extended wave 5 to the moon.
After we reach my target (around 116), the ascending parallel channel will breakdown and the dollar will go down. I do not trade forex or stocks, because my specialization is only in the crypto market, but I am not only a trader; I am also an analyst, and I enjoy doing analyses for all kinds of markets. For maximum performance, it's best to focus only on 1 area, such as only on crypto, only on stocks, only on forex, only on commodities, and so on. The market behavior absolutely differs, and you have to use different tools and strategies. A strategy that is profitable on crypto gets totally REKT on forex. People who say that his strategy or trading system works on all markets are either scamming you or lying to you.
As I said, DXY is sitting on the major support on the monthly chart, and usually you want to long supports and short resistances. In this case, we want to long the support.
If DXY drops below 99, then it's over, and this channel is going to break down. Everything indicates that the recession is pretty much inevitable. And when the Fed pivots, a market crash is almost guaranteed.
Now the question is, when will we rise on the DXY? We could start consolidating at these levels before an uptrend, or we can start an uptrend very soon. This is an analysis of the monthly chart, so it could take another few months!
Q2 2023 could be still bullish for the crypto market!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin - All levels on the weekly chart (must know!)
You can use these levels for your trades, because I am pretty sure we will see a reaction on all of them! These levels will be respected even on the 1-minute chart, so do not underestimate them!
If one of these levels is destroyed, it's likely that the price will move to the next level specified on the chart.
On the bullish side of the chart, we have a strong level that will be tested very soon. It's the POC of the previous market structure and a strong horizontal level at 29765.
Above this level, there is an unfilled GAP between 37836 and 32399. This is the only major unfilled GAP on the Binance chart. These types of gaps are called fair value GAPS.
0.618 LOG SCALE FIB (38981) is definitely the strongest resistance out there. Also, we have a POC of the previous structure exactly at the same level. If the price gets to this level, we will experience a massive, brutal crash. Make sure you get informed when we reach this level, so follow me to stay updated!
0.618 LINEAR SCALE FIB (48553) is at confluence with the previous swing high. It's definitely a strong resistance as well, but if the bulls destroy this level, then it opens the gate to a new all-time high (69000), which is the last resistance!
On the bearish side of the chart, there is only 1 strong level at this point, and it's the previous swing low at 15476. I think we will reach this level sometimes later this year or next year!
2 unfilled GAPs below the current price are also strong supports. They are between 22602 - 26508 and 17176 - 19549. I am telling you that these gaps are extremely massive, and the chances of filling them are soooooo high, sooner or later.
If the bulls fail to hold the 15476 level, we will go to 10k! It's a possible scenario, and it could happen, and the chances are not low at all.
Otherwise, this is a bearish Elliott Wave count, which is still my main count. Of course, I also have a bullish count, but I will switch to it after we reach levels above 43k.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin to 1 USD - Whales plan revealed! it's over! (99% CRASH)
It's over for Bitcoin because the whales started to manipulate the price. But fortunately, I know their plan, which is why I have to share it with you as soon as possible!
First of all, whales. They want as low a price as possible because why should they buy at the current expensive price when they can send Bitcoin back and buy it cheaper?
This is an analysis of the monthly chart with full history. We need to take the FIB retracement for the whole uptrend and look for the 0.618 value. Whales love to buy Bitcoin at the 0.618 FIB retracement, and in this case, it's 0.80 USDT.
FAIR VALUE GAP BETWEEN 0.97 - 1.99 USDT (UNFILLED GAP) is another confluence why we should go down. All gaps tend to be filled sooner or later.
The impulse wave from 2009 to 2021 has finished, and we are looking for an ABC correction. No doubt about it at all.
The MACD indicator is absolutely terrible. We can see that the histogram was at the lowest level in history, this is not good.
What's more, if we take a look at the volume indicator, we can see absolutely low volume. The whales are not buying at all.
The whales will send Bitcoin temporarily to zero until there are no orders in the orderbook from retail traders. (It happened with OIL before, so why not?)
I hope you like this secret gameplan from whales; do not tell anyone, because it should be only for my followers.
Today is April 1, so happy Easter and April Fools' Day! If you think this analysis is for real, then you have been pranked!
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📚 Elliott Wave Pattern: Flat 🌊●● Flat
❗❗ 𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙧𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● A flat always subdivides into three waves.
● Wave A is always a zigzag , flat or combination.
● Wave B is always a zigzag .
● Wave C is always an impulse or a ending diagonal .
❗ 𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Wave A is usually a zigzag .
●● 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙁𝙡𝙖𝙩 ( Exp . FL )
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave B always ends after the start of wave A .
● Wave C always ends past the end of wave A .
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Wave B usually retraces 123.6 or 138.2% of wave A , less often — 161.8% .
● Wave C is often equal to 161.8% of wave A , less often — 261.8% .
● The most common type of flat.
●● 𝙍𝙪𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩 (Runn. FL )
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave B always ends after the start of wave A .
● Wave C never goes beyond the end of wave A .
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Within such a flat wave B should end well above the origin of wave A and that means wave C might reflect a 61.8% or even a 100% relationship to wave A .
● A running flat indicates that the forces in the direction of the larger trend at next higher degree are powerful.
● Wave B is usually no more than twice the length of wave A .
● Keep in mind that a running flat is rare.
●● 𝙍𝙚𝙜𝙪𝙡𝙖𝙧 𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩 (Reg. FL )
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave B never goes beyond beyond the start of wave A .
● Wave B always retraces at least 90 percent of wave A .
● Wave C always ends past the end of wave A .
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● The rarest type of flat.
__________________________
🔗 References:
Elliott Wave Principal 2005
Trade Waves / Elliott Waves Analysis (TWEWA)
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
Bitcoin - No one talks about this trendline, last wave up!
Bitcoin is appraoching an extremely strong resistance at around 30k. The chance of crash from this level is extremely high!
We can see that the uptrend from 20k to almost 30k in March is steep and without any major corrections.
From the Elliott Wave perspective I expect last fifth wave to the upside to complete an impulse wave. We can find a resistance at the major trendline that you can see on the chart, or you can call it a broadening wedge.
If you open a short position slightly below 30k, then what is the profit target? 0.618 FIB and POC of the previous structure is at 23k. If you want to take profit earlier than 0.382 FIB at around 25k is the next option because it is also a strong horizontal resistance on the weekly chart.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
If we take a look at the RSI indicator on the daily chart, we can be sure that after the final impulse wave the indicator will be oversold, so this is probably not the best time to buy/long at this point.
In my opinion, a CRASH to 15k is probable later this year, maybe in September / October, so be prepared for it because this will be the best time for an investment position with a target of around 150k!
I took a look at all major altcoins on major exchanges and I can tell you that 95% of them looks totally bearish on the highest timeframe, the bottom is definitely not in for them.
This is my game plan for Bitcoin at this moment as I said I expect one last wave to the upside before a huge crash. I am not going to long or buy Bitcoin at this point after this pump because it's of course dangerous and we have a lot of unfilled GAPs below the current price.
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Shiba Inu - 23% crash, best opportunity! (long-term outlook)
We have a great opportunity to buy/long Shiba Inu at the yellow trendline, which is a good support level for a short-term trade.
Unfortunately, the Shiba Inu coin still looks really bad on the highest timeframe. All previous pumps were only an ABC 3-wave structure, which is overall definitely not a good sign!
The bulls still don't show strength from the Elliott Wave perspective because we can see 3-wave structures upward and 5-wave structures downward.
After the breakout of the blue parallel channel, the bulls completely failed to continue in the uptrend; it was essentially a fakeout or a bull trap.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
23% crash is pretty likely at this moment, and you can take this opportunity and long shiba inu at the support line with leverage on the futures market!
Is the bottom in for shiba inu? From my perspective, - NO. I believe we will eventually reach 0.00000500 (a 55% drop from the current price).
This is my idea for the Shiba Inu coin; now do your actions!
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Bitcoin - The bottom is not in! 15k or 10k (careful)
Everyone thinks that the bottom is in and we are going to a new all-time high, but in my opinion, that's definitely not true. In this analysis, I will tell you why!
First of all, we need to take a look at the huge dump that occurred in 2021–2022 (from 69k to 15k). From the Elliott Wave perspective, it's most likely an impulse wave, not a corrective wave, because there are no overlaps between swings and the price action was extremely steep and bleedy. Also, there are no triangles in this structure whatsoever. You may say that it's not an impulse but a WXYXZ triple-three corrective pattern. It's possible, but in my opinion, these patterns tend to have more sideways price action than steep. You may also say that it's an ABC correction, but there are clearly 5 waves.
We should be in a major corrective B wave followed by a major C wave, which should end between 15k and 10k. I am not saying we will reach 10k for sure, but we should at least take liquidity below 15.5k to complete the ABC correction. That means if you buy Bitcoin now, you will experience a big drawdown on your account.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
10k is a strong psychological level, and there is plenty of reason to buy Bitcoin here. 0.618 LOG FIB retracement and the start of the GAP are definitely reasonable targets.
Right now, we are clearly in an uptrend on the weekly chart, and Bitcoin could reach 30k to 40k. The invalidation point for this analysis is 45k. If we reach this level, then I am wrong and I will buy BTC and ride the bull market to 150k. Targets will be specified for sure in one of my next analyses, so make sure you follow me and my updates!
The potential reversal point for this major corrective wave is, in my opinion, at 30k (strong horizontal support and POC) or 39k (0.618 LOG FIB). Then we should go down to 15k at least.
Also, if we take a look at the previous price action from 2018 - 2020, we had an exponencial pump from 3k to 14k followed by an exponencial dump from 14k to 4k. But we didn't take liquidity below the 3k level. This time I expect liquidity to be taken below the 15.5k level.
I hope this analysis is clear for you, and considering the upcoming recession and upcoming stock market crash, it's also possible to go down to 15K from a fundamental perspective.
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Bitcoin - 10% crash, pullback is very likely!
Bitcoin is likely to go down, because this falling wedge is breaking down and also because the impulse wave has been completed!
10% crash is the minimum at this point, but we could go even lower.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
As you can see, we have 2 trendlines, and both of them are breaking down.
In my opinion, this trend is already overextended and we should see a bearish retracement.
We have a lot of unfilled GAPs below the current price, and usually gaps act like a magnet, sooner or later.
This is a quick update on the Bitcoin price; if you want more updates on lower timeframes, make sure you hit the like button right now so I know you are interested!
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USD/ZAR Price Turns BearishUSDZAR Has been in an impulse phase and it has been completed with no rules violated. We are in the bearish phase of the market, we have two counts going on where it could be an impulse in the downside suggesting a long-term sell-off or a short-term sell-off as a correction meaning we are trading in a wave (C) instead.
The idea of an impulse is a little complex but the idea would be to trade a wave 3 looking at the retracement it would make sense to target the 2,618. Correlating this pair to USDCAD we are more likely to have long-term sells but keeping an eye on the price level where a Zig-Zag pattern completes will be very important.
Bitcoin - 100% probability to go down to 20k!
Based on historical performance, we have a 100% probability of going down to 20k to fully or partially fill the GAP on CME futures.
I am not saying that this is going to happen with 100% certainty, but I am saying that this is a statistical fact because all gaps on CME futures were at least partially filled. You can check out the history of this chart on the daily chart from 2017 - 2023.
Now it's up to you if you want to go against the 100% statistical probability. I am just giving you all the important facts and information.
When will this gap be filled, is the question. Again, based on historical data, it could take a few days, a few weeks, a few months, or even more.
Bitcoin is currently rising, and the next strong resistance is around 30k. It's the POC of the previous structure and the start of the previous gap. There is a pretty good chance that we will see a huge crash from this level!
From my Elliott Wave perspective, there are valid bearish and bullish scenarios because this whole uptrend from 15500 to 27000 can be the start of a huge impulse or just an ABC correction. So for this particular timeframe, we need more data to make a confirmation. On the left side, you can see a bearish ABC correction, which is valid.
This ABC correction can have an extended A wave with a steep and quick C wave. So make sure you take it into consideration!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin - Last crash before a pump! (must see)
The price of bitcoin is currently near the 0.618 FIB. Usually it acts as a magnet when the price is near this very strong level.
The market moves in waves, and wave A should end exactly at the 0.618 FIB. After we reach this level, we are going to go up to retest the previous major trendline because we have a huge unfilled gap and an untested pattern. After that, we are going to go down again to 17600 - 17400 to fill the previous GAP and complete the ABC correction.
I recommend you buy Bitcoin at these levels with a profit target of 30k+. I will make an update and you will know exactly when to sell, so make sure you follow me and also hit the like button right now if you want more updates on BTC!
There is a pretty good chance to visit the 10k level; if you haven't seen my previous analysis, make sure to check it out in the related section down below!
On the chart, you can see the most likely scenario for Bitcoin. Let me know in the comment section: what is your plan? I want to know your opinion, and I will answer your comment!
The price action on Bitcoin is very well readable. The structure is well-made at this point. Make sure you also have a bearish and a bullish scenario on the table.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and I wish you fun during your trades!
Buy Bitcoin at 17600 | Secret level
Buy/long Bitcoin at 17600, because there is an unfilled GAP between the previous candles. It's the start of the huge parabolic uptrend, and the bulls will most likely defend this level!
It looks like Bitcoin is going to reach levels above 25000 after we fill the GAP and complete this Elliott Wave corrective pattern (ABC). Currently, we are in wave B.
Why should Bitcoin not fall below the 17600 level? There is no reason to go down because the majority of liquidity is exactly at this point.
What is the target for wave C? Wave C 's target will be specified in one of my next analyses. Make sure you follow me! We need to use a FIB extension from Wave A -> B later to help determine the target. But at this point, we can speculate between 25000 and 39000.
On the chart, I can see a strong impulse wave (A). This gives us a great chance for a continuation to the upside after we finish this correction.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
If you haven't seen my previous analysis, where I told you that Bitcoin could go to 10k, make sure to check it out right now!
At this point, we need to be patient and wait for bitcoin to reach 17600. If we reach this level, it's a good idea to turn bullish again and buy some great altcoins as well.
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Bitcoin to 10K! Disgusting
This is a bearish technical analysis of Bitcoin. It's supported by technical tools, and I am not saying this is going to happen; this is just a scenario because we need to consider all possibilities.
First of all, we need to take a look at the bearish wave from November 2021 to November 2022. It definitely looks like an impulse wave; it's pretty obvious, but I have seen a lot of failed impulses on the other side. You may say that it's not an impulse but a WXYXZ triple-three corrective pattern. It's possible, but in my opinion, these patterns tend to have more sideways price action than steep. You may also say that it's an ABC correction, but there are clearly 5 waves.
Since November 2022, Bitcoin has been going upward. The wave looks very strong, and I think we will reach levels above 25K before a potential drop to 10k to complete an ABC correction. It's very likely that this is going to happen.
Currently we are in wave B, which is a corrective wave, and we could end this wave at around 20k or 19k at the 0.618 FIB retracement.
I do not watch news often, to be honest; I am more of a technical guy, but I can't ignore the Binance bad news. There is speculation about the closing of the Binance US exchange, and their stable coin, Binance USD (BUSD), has some problems as well. But I am not surprised at all. A potential collapse of Binance could send Bitcoin to 10k in just a matter of days. For example, you can take a look at the COVID crash in 2020; it was a pretty fast liquidation of longs.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
10k is a strong psychological level, and there is plenty of reason to buy Bitcoin here. 0.618 LOG FIB retracement and the start of the GAP are definitely reasonable targets.
Like I said before, this analysis is just a scenario that could happen to give you more perspective on the market. I always have a bullish and a bearish scenario ready to execute, so it's not about being wrong or right; this is not how you trade markets.
Let me know in the comment section, do you think Bitcoin is going to drop to 10k? Or we are going to a new all time high.
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Bitcoin - Best plan for the next week!
First, Bitcoin is going to drop to 21833 or even a little bit lower at the start of the week, probably Monday or Tuesday. After that, we should see a massive pump to the upside to fill the previous unfilled GAP, which is around 23395.
The bulls should step in at around 21833 because, technically, we will finish the ABC correction from the Elliott Wave perspective. Also, we will close the previous GAP.
Don't get caught with your shorts in this white trendline. I can see this trendline everywhere on social media. If you enter a short, you will get REKT.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
I am bearish on Bitcoin overall, and I think we are going to reach 17k-18k before a massive bull market takes us to a new all time high.
If you want more of these short-term analyses on Bitcoin, hit the like right now so I can see if you are also interested in the short-term periods.
The whole crypto market is going to go down, including ETH and XRP. Only a few stronger coins will keep pumping.
Thank you, and do not forget to leave a comment if you trade these short-term moves!
XRP - Final 50% crash, life-time opportunity to buy!
XRP will give you a life-time opportunity to buy for an extremely cheap price, around 0.18 USDT! It's going to happen probably very soon, so make sure you are prepared!
This is a whole chart of XRP from 2016 to 2023. As you can see, the massive pump in 2017 was very strong, and right now XRP has been consolidating in this bullish regular flat pattern (3-3-5). My calculations say that we are at the end of the pattern, specifically in wave 5 of wave C.
If we look at the local price action from 2022–2023, we can spot a bearish head and shoulders pattern. The bears are going to send XRP lower, to around 0.18 USDT.
What's more, there is a falling wedge pattern. It's hard to see a breakout at this moment, and it's likely to hit the bottom of the wedge instead. Which is a 50% drop. We should find a support at the bottom of the falling wedge! This is your once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a 20x profit in the next few months / years.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
We don't know how the pump is going to look, but you will not have too much time to enter because the market moves aggressively to the upside while going sideways very slowly. I expect a huge green dildo on the weekly and monthly charts.
This analysis is like no other. No one will give you an Elliott Wave count on XRP from the beginning. If you know about anyone, let me know in the comment section; I want to follow him.
My plan is to buy/long XRP around 0.18 USDT for a 20x minimum gain. I am telling you it will be a massive pump, and for the best feeling you want to be in the market.
The bears have been waiting for an incredible 5 years, but you do not need to wait; you can simply catch the bottom and take advantage of the massive pump in a short period of time. After that, you can buy some tasty Japanese wagyu.
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Bitcoin - No one is expecting this! (react fast)
The new monthly candle is closed as a DOJI. This is one of the most powerful reversal candles that can happen at the end of a trend. The previous candle from January was a huge green candle, so this DOJI from February is an indication of bullish exhaustion. The bulls were not able to continue the uptrend, and the bears stepped in. This is the psychology behind this reversal candle, and of course, do not forget that the monthly interval is very powerful; that's why it has a lot of value.
On the chart, you can see the gate to a new bull market. We are going to enter through the gate later this year, but not now. I expect a last pullback to 17k - 18k to fill the gap and retest the previous market structure. Simply, we need a retest because that's what markets usually do.
This is what is going to happen. The market never moves in a straight line, and because the bear market was extremely steep, the bulls need more time to recover and accumulate!
This scenario is not just an option that can happen; in my opinion, it's very likely to happen! But it's also good news for people who still need to buy cheap bitcoin.
At this point, we can see an incomplete reversal pattern. I feel like I am missing something. The right shoulder is not yet formed, and the GAP is unfilled. If we continue to go higher, then it will be even worse because otherwise we are going to crash even more at a higher level.
The DXY index is rising at this moment, and we will reach much higher levels.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
I think the majority is now bullish, and everyone is talking about the future of bitcoin and how it's going to be great. It will, but now we need to shake out these traders from the market by going down.
There are a lot of signs of trend reversal on lower timeframes, too. The bears started to sell, and you can identify this action, of course, because the price action never lies. It looks like the sellers are back.
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Ethereum - Final 24% drop before a new all time high!
Ethereum is now in an extremely difficult situation because the price is at the resistance of this symmetrical triangle and also inside the bearish rising wedge pattern on the daily chart! These patterns are bearish, so the probability of breaking down is higher at this point. Of course, we can breakout bullish, but do you really want to bet on it?
What's more, it looks like the first impulse Elliott wave has been completed, and we should take a look for a potential buying level on the next bull run! An ABC correction is on the way, and in this case personally, I am targeting the previous POC or the 0.618 FIB of the impulse wave, which is a 24% drop.
The very good news is that this triangle has impulse waves to the upside and corrective waves to the downside. It's a sign of trend reversal, and that's why I think this symmetrical triangle will break to the upside (later)! I think the bull market has started, but we are still stuck in this symmetrical range.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
As you can clearly see, we have an unfilled GAP, and it is very dangerous to go up without filling it. The reason is that the market will want to fill the gap later, maybe in 2024, and you probably don't want it. So let's fill it now.
If you haven't seen my previous very popular idea about "Bitcoin to 18K," "The big crash is coming!" You have to check out the related section down below, because it's absolutely mind-blowing.
Currently I am bearish on Ethereum and Bitcoin, but only temporarily until we reach my targets. It's hard to speculate on the breakout of the symmetrical triangle while the price is still inside it. So from my perspective, the probability of going down is 75%.
It was a very good rally with tons of profits, but now we need to trade the market differently. Of course, it will be more difficult for the majority of traders, but it is doable!
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Update2: BTC Scalping short trading opportunity
This is the sequel to my previous idea .
The support line of the diagonal triangle has finally been broken.
The coordinate of point (A) was erroneous, so I corrected it.
TOTAL and Nen-star patterns formed.
Recommended TPs unchanged (see also gray-color zones of the Fibonacci extension.)
For details, please take a look at the related ideas below.
Update: BTC Scalping short trading opportunity
This is a sequel to my previous idea .
The diagonal triangle's unexpected, extended wave 5 (possibly an expanding diagonal) morphed the bearish white swan into a bearish anti-butterfly.
The basic strategy stays the same, but the basis for calculus would be slightly different.
Target is unchanged anyway.
If this breakout forms wave 5 of the impulse, a drop to the 22400 zone or below is likely, but some reversal is expected at FE 1.618 (23051), 2(22999), and 2.618 (22905), at each of which the price crosses a pitchfork's channel line.
This running flat scenario is invalidated above the high of A (23217), but another bearish scenario will likely develop under an expanded flat.
Bitcoin to 18k. The big crash is coming!
It looks like Bitcoin has completed the first bullish impulse wave, which is a very positive sign for the future, but right now the correction is in progress.
As you know, from the Elliott Wave perspective, wave 2 corrections are usually deeper, especially in crypto. 0.618 FIB or even lower is a classic retracement, and because we have a huge unfilled GAP, this is going to happen!
0.618 FIB is at 18658 (LOG), and the start of the gap + POC of the previous consolidation structure is at 16830. Only these two levels are important; the others are insignificant. So you want to buy bitcoin at these points!
The market always moves in waves, no doubt about it. The waves in crypto are absolutely different from the stock market because different environments have different personalities. What works on the crypto market doesn't work on the stock market. If someone claims that his bot or trading system works on all markets, including forex, indices, crypto, commodities, and stocks, he is most likely lying to you. It is best to concentrate on a single type of market; in my case, that is crypto. I don't trade forex, stocks, or gold because the market movements are very different. It's like comparing apples to beef steak; they look different and taste different. It's better to eat the beef steak.
We can see on the chart that there is a large unfilled GAP between approx. 16830 and 20407. These gaps tend to be filled sooner or later. I think maybe it's better to fill the gap right now than next year. You probably do not want Bitcoin to go to 40k and then dump back to 16k next year; this would be as ugly as the COVID crash in 2020.
The bulls didn't react to the major supports on lower timeframes, and it's a huge sign of weakness at this moment. The structure was bullish, but currently at this point, it's extremely bearish to me.
So what is the plan now? You can trade Bitcoin on futures and trade reactions on the previous structures. For example, 21,950 is a strong level and bitcoin could bounce from it, so you can take some intraday trades with a few % of gains before it collapses down to the abyss. You can definitely short bitcoin. I will make these types of trades in the next few weeks. Once bitcoin reaches my reversal zone, I will take some brutal long trades with an extremely high RR and a target of 30k+.
March is going to be a very bearish month. And usually Bitcoin starts to pump significantly when April starts. You can do a back test. April is a very positive month.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!