Get started

Flat

Final Leg of Diagonal Pattern - 1.1050 Key LevelWith the Fed beating the drum of rate increases, many are looking for the Greenback to fundamentally strengthen. Though when and if the Fed actually increases rates is a debate for another day, let's look at the technical picture for EURUSD. It appears we are finalizing the 4th wave of a 5 wave diagonal pattern. We're looking for this 4th wave to terminate in the 1.1050-1.1200 price zone, then pivot higher to for a 1.17 retest. Two items can help with the long trigger: 1. Live trader positioning through FXCM - it currently reads +1.01...look for this number to drop to signal a bullish signal 2. A break above the red resistance trend line would signal the mood of the market could be shifting towards bulls. If this occurs, one could place a stop loss just below the recent swing low while targeting 1.16 for a positive risk to reward ratio. If prices meaningful penetrate 1.1050, then we'll need to consider the alternate patterns. Best of luck and happy trading!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
11
EURUSD - COULD RESUME IT'S BULLISH CYCLEMy last EURUSD chart suggesting long entry was about 4 months ago, which took longer and retraced more than originally anticipated. Whilst we were waiting for longer term bullish move, we took 2 short trades which were also published subsequently, see chart links below. Now we have long awaited low formed in December 2015 just above March 2015 low, which could prove to be higher low of the bullish cycle Looking at the price actions since March low to recent December 2015 low it appears very interesting as follow: 1. From March Low to August high we note a clear 3 swings zigzag move shown in GREEN. 2. Similarly, from August high to December low also appear to have a 3 swings to the downside show in GREEN. 4. The final part of the swing down to Dec low was clear falling wedge with accompanied momentum divergence on H4. 3. The December low formed at just below 88.6% retracement of the move up from March to August. The above observations, if correct, suggests that we have a potential Flat correction which according to Elliott Wave principle is formed by 3-3-5 (a-b-c) formation where wave B needs to retrace around 90% of prior wave A and both waves A & B should have 3 swings each, hence meeting the criteria. If the interpretation is correct, then what should develop now is a 5 wave impulsive move to the upside, which could at least retest August high or even make new higher high. Of the 5 wave it appears we have already completed leading diagonal wave 1 and retracement zigzag wave 2, and could be in very early stage of wave 3 in progress which should be quite strong. Summary: Therefore, we could consider 2 possible entries 1. The ideal one is that we can get pullback to enter around 1.08 or better and is a preferred entry. 2. If it don't get a pull back to 1.08 level then use a smaller time frame to confirm entry or wait till we have a breakout above 1.1. In both cases the initial stops could be just below 1.07 which is invalidation level, however, it might need to be reviewed as bullish trade could still materialise provided we hold above December low. We might stay in this range for few days but seasonality also supports EURUSD gaining noticeably commencing from late Jan to early Feb Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV danv-charting.com
Long
by DanV
25
Pre-NFP Analysis - 1.1090 criticalTomorrow morning at 8:30a ET, the US Non Farm Payroll report is scheduled to be released. This could impact the EURUSD as the USD has been strengthening on the heels of a strong payroll report in November. With today's post -ECB move knocking on the door of 1.1090, we have a critical level of which we can consider trading around. First off, if prices remain below 1.1090 (the early September low), then it is possible they could retest 1.05 over the coming days. The simplier result is that if 1.1090 is breached, then it locks in a 3 wave move from August to yesterday. That is important because it eliminates an impulse from August 24 high and elevates the probability of a retest of the 1.17 high. Bulls need not go blindly in (nor should you ever do so) as another lower probability pattern is that Aug 24-Dec 3 was wave 1 of an ending diagonal. That pattern will likely rear its head around 1.14-1.15. So bottom line, a break above 1.1090 is reason for bulls to get excited as several patterns point to multiple hundred pips higher. DailyFX's Speculative Sentiment Index is shrinking as prices have been rising today. This adds more fuel to the bullish story as SSI is a contrarian tool. It currently sits near -1.84 as the number of short traders is growing. To watch Speculative Sentiment Index in real time, click HERE . Read page 10 on the Traits of Successful Traders report on how tweaking the leverage improved traders profitability from 29% to 40%. Download here with free registration. Lastly, be mindful of the seasonal liquidity strains...especially considering tomorrow is a major news announcement. Read more HERE .
by JWagnerFXTrader
5
BTCUSD - POSSIBLE CYCLE COMPLETION WITH LIMITED UPSIDEIn my last chart (link below) a retracement bounce with target of 380 zone did not play out as anticipated even though we have now bumping into 340 zone. During this period with both up and down swings, many chartists using differing methods are suggesting that we have formed a major low and are now in new "Bullish Cycle". Several have asked if there is any case I could make to justify this. "DOW Theory" looks for series of LH & LL, OR HH & HL to denote up &down trends. One important thing to remember is, what cycle degree are we referring to and within the same cycle degree powerful rallies or declines could take place without altering the overall trend. Note in the chart below on Daily time frame: we have series of LL & LH since Nov 2013 high. This means that based on DOW theory, at this degree, we are still in bearish cycle and change would not be confirmed till we get a new high above June 2014 high (700 zone) with subsequent HL being formed on any retrace. However, since Jan 2015 low we are in intermediate bullish cycle according to DOW theory in that we have a High (25th Jan 2015) & Higher Low (Aug 2015) and now forming a Higher High. Does that in it self suggest that we will continue to see series of new HH & HL? Also consider that since 31st Jan 2015 low, we don't actually have series of HH & HL. Rather we have HH & LL so far. Does this suggest Bullish cycle behaviour according to Dow theory? I am not sure if it could be argued to say yes. Based on EW theory, it seems that we have larger WYX zigzag from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low, which could be labelled as possible Wave A completion. If correct then retracement bounce since, is likely a wave B (which technically can retrace much higher) suggesting that once complete, we would expect to see a strong 5 wave move to the downside for Wave C, OR continue to chop about in some complex corrective pattern in this range. Since that major low every up & down swings appears to be of 3 minor swings. It lacks any signs of showing clear 5 wave move up as essential for any new bullish cycle to develop. In Summary, we have 2 possible scenarios both suggesting limited upside and at least a retest of the Jan 2015 lows or new lower low to follow as detailed below: Scenario 1: ABC zigzag with Wave C in the form of Megaphone or expanding ending diagonal (see schematic diagram on the chart). If correct then we might be close to making reversal in the 340 -350 zone. Scenario 2: Expanded Flat in the form of 3-3-5 construction (see schematic diagram on the chart) which could be still be ABC zizgag of the Jan 2015 low. If correct then we have wxy to Wave (a), Wave (b) also of 3 swings and now in progress to complete Wave C with 5 waves in the form of possible expanding diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction. In this event we could be near completing wave 3, a retrace for wave 4 and wave 5 to follow to the upside to complete this cycle. Upon completion, we could develop more complex sideways correction OR have strong 5 wave decline to retest Jan low or make new lower low around 100 zone as being in proximity of wave 4 of one cycle degree lower as suggested by EW guidelines. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV danv-charting.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DanV
79