Update2: BTC Scalping short trading opportunity
This is the sequel to my previous idea .
The support line of the diagonal triangle has finally been broken.
The coordinate of point (A) was erroneous, so I corrected it.
TOTAL and Nen-star patterns formed.
Recommended TPs unchanged (see also gray-color zones of the Fibonacci extension.)
For details, please take a look at the related ideas below.
Flat
Update: BTC Scalping short trading opportunity
This is a sequel to my previous idea .
The diagonal triangle's unexpected, extended wave 5 (possibly an expanding diagonal) morphed the bearish white swan into a bearish anti-butterfly.
The basic strategy stays the same, but the basis for calculus would be slightly different.
Target is unchanged anyway.
If this breakout forms wave 5 of the impulse, a drop to the 22400 zone or below is likely, but some reversal is expected at FE 1.618 (23051), 2(22999), and 2.618 (22905), at each of which the price crosses a pitchfork's channel line.
This running flat scenario is invalidated above the high of A (23217), but another bearish scenario will likely develop under an expanded flat.
BTC Scalping short trading opportunity
We may witness a fractal move of the daily chart as wave 4 of a potential bearish impulse.
A bearish expanded flat (possibly a running flat) is expected with a bearish White Swan harmonic pattern.
SL above 23300. Recommended 23350 (see the trendline right up).
TP 22400-22700.
I also predicted wave 2 would be an Elliott flat, which revealed it was not (it seems to have been a zigzag).
Double zigzag WXY, don't you think so?
I've posted many times on this exactly the same counting in the sense of the Elliott wave theory.
This time I elaborate on it.
In this hypothesis, we are in X of WXY, whose bottom could be 7500 +- 2000, a roughly 1.236-1.272 retracement from the 65k & 69k double tops or the inverted A&E.
This double zigzag should be a global 4th wave.
This scenario will be invalidated entirely above 29k where C of X unambiguously exceeds Fib 1.618 level of A, violating the flat correction schematic.
For more detailed calculations, please look at the related ideas below.
BTCUSDTwave 2 flat 335/wxy wave structure.
SL at the invalidation point of a wave 1 at 17050
target 16300
Guidelines
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B terminates near the start of wave A
• Wave C generally terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 90% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
Examining pennant & flat correction possibility (revised)Some errors in Elliott count were addressed. No substantial change in the conclusion.
In the previous ideas, we examined bearish possibilities.
BTC 1H Short-trading idea
Going to form a Bearish Flat?
BTC in compression
Where is the top of the Inverse H&S-like structure?
First of all, this analysis is coherent with the above scenarios.
So we may have a short position from around 17390, or we could make entry at 17200, 17400-17650, while recommended SL is over 17800 (manage your own risk).
Although arguably BTC is in compression, the bearish movement will likely resume - let's check this hypothesis.
I laid out a tapering pennant to measure the price conversatio.
(i) Corrective Wave of Elliott wave theory
Although there are a variety of corrective waves in EW theory, a flat would fit most appropriately for our presupposition.
A flat correction wave comprises three waves, having 3, 3, and 5 minor wave structures, respectively.
Wave A was an irregular correction, and wave B was a typical zigzag with a steep decline.
Then wave C. Is this complete? Let's see in deep.
(ii) Examining the current formation
Waves B and C shaped a beautiful Anti-Gartley. If this holds, the upside is limited; around 17200 would be the ceiling.
On the other side, pennants see fakeouts, not unusually.
In this case, the five-wave movements of wave C might be incomplete so far, and a new high of 17400-17650 would be marked instead.
A flat setup as above is eventually complete if the price turns around at either high.
Even though this shape could be a "bullish" flat, not a bearish one, the pennant is a sign of trend continuation.
So the follow-through of such a bullish pennant could end up in a mere pullback.
Does Gold doing wave C?After the gold price doesn't make a new low and does some correction, I think it may be making a FLAT correction and we're at the beginning of wave "C", If the price doesn't go below 1617, or the analysis will be wrong, must be something else. To enter the Long or Buy position, wait for the price breaking 1670, which will be a safety position (Price Action is the most important information)
OANDA:XAUUSD
XRR - RIPPLE / USDTXRP -RIPPLE seems to be doing a flat "ABC" correction as a rule that waves "A" and "B" must have 3 moves and wave "C" must have 5 moves to finish the correction, now RIPPLE is in a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) since they want to classify RIPPLE (XRP) as a value but everything seems to be moving towards XRP being the winner, apart from the fact that it is having a very good adoption by banks and countries with large institutional capital behind. I think the XRP trial is going to end in their favor and with them a big rise will be seen, its CEO said that by July 2023 the case will be closed.
PS: You can finish before that date
Preferably wait for a 1-2 pattern when we believe that wave "C" is over to ride the next impulsive wave
NVDA, now has a fresh low as was predicted.! whats next?I warned about a very strong bull trap in NVDA on 28th July and now the stock has a fresh low. !
As discussed in previous idea , inverted flats in bear market are among the most difficult patterns to recognize. Lets review published idea first :
Now, What is next?
As shown on the chart , a zigzag correction is most likely forming in NVDA and the stock is currently in wave 5 of A of an ABC form of correction.
Two suggested supports are shown on the chart by green lines. These lines coincide with 0.382 and 0.618 Fibo projection of wave 1-3 from top of wave 4 which are typical for end of wave 5. Suggested wave A which is (most probably) just the first large leg of correction will probably end at these supports. This means that stock may show a considerable counter trend correction (wave B) and a resumption of down trend (Wave C ) after that. It may take 12 to 18 months from now for completion of large degree ABC zigzag form of correction.
Picture inserted in the chart was captured from a very useful book written by Frost and Prechter titled : "Elliott wave principle key to market behavior " chapter 1, figures 1.22 and 1.23. As we can see current chart beautifully resembles text book example.
Please note this analysis may need update in future since corrective waves may take some complicated forms . Should it need any update, we can do it later.
I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
Gold Prepares for New Bull Run/ATHResharing this as my last idea wasn't very useful in micro terms. Knowing all to well that the macro picture is what matters most, I still had 0 intents of sharing a decade's long trade idea. Hopefully it ages well though :)
Focusing this time on the more near time, anticipated price action, we can see that Gold is near very strong support levels.
In Elliott Wave speak, I believe us to be ending (c) Wave of an all-time Wave 4 correction.
With (b) Wave of Wave 4 only reaching 100% of (a), it is my belief that (c) wave will reach 100% of (a's) bottom - near 1682, or down to 105% below (a)'s bottom - near 1662.
Gold's new all-time high will sit between $2200 and $2415 and should be seen within the next 18-24 months.
I've missed the top of the last big sell entry but won't find myself on the sidelines for this one.
You shouldn't either. Grab your surfboard and ride the wave with us.
USDJPY : EXPANDED FLAT SCENARIOThe 2nd possible scenario is called expanded (irregular) flat scenario. You can google what is irregular (expanded) flat.
If this scenario to be valid so the top (B wave) should be between 141.184-144.120 (fibo 127.2%-161.8%) of wave A. Then the wave C whenever the market corrects after wave B would be 128.083-125.147 (fibo 127.2%-161.8%) of wave A.
I wish u all the very best trade here.
USDJPY : RUNNING FLAT SCENARIOI believe many of us are wondering and keep wondering where will be the top pf usdjpy? Is thing pair ever going to reverse again?
Therefore in my study and humble opinion the answer is yes. There are 2 possibilites of scenario here.
This post is the 1st scenario, running flat scenario. You can google what is running flat.
If this scenario to be valid so the top (B wave) should be between 141.184-144.120 (fibo 127.2%-161.8%) of wave A. Then the wave C whenever the market corrects after wave B would be 133.632-130.391 (fibo 61.8%-100%) of wave A.
I wish u all the very best trade here.
GBPCHF LONGFor a very long time, since 1993 GBPCHF is in down trend and it has created completed the 3rd wave on 1 august 2011. Till then its in a flat correction for the 4th wave of the circle. And for the 4th wave its forming ABC pattern while A & B of the ABC flat correction is also completed and moving for the C leg of the 4th Wave. Today is 15th August, and historically August is the bottom of the 3rd wave, so we expect long position for this pair. For this idea our invalidation level also marked. All the best!
Bitcoin Beary Bad -- Support at $13K Pending!Despite aggressive downside action from $68K, Bitcoin Bears are not yet done with their assault on Bullish traders. Based on price action, to include both confirmations and invalidations, it seems that Bitcoin is currently in a sideways push which could last for upwards of 3 weeks.
I anticipate a drop test near $16K, also a pop test near $22K as price action ping pongs to rob more badly leveraged traders.
Ultimately, Bitcoin should find its bottom support level between $13K-$15.5K.
While I totally expected a drop even before 68K landed, I didn't think it would drop this far.
Let's see how the movie pans out.
Surf carefully; dont drown.
Gold. Building its flat/base with footing @ 1680. 9/ July/22Gold most likely is forming a “regular” flat pattern ( where wave “B” “Cyan“ retrace > 90% of wave “A” “Cyan” And wave “C”” Cyan” about the same length of wave “B””Cyan”)... AND building its “base” with a “footing” @ around 1680.. “ The whole foundation “ of “the base” might take 2-3 years more to complete with “last piling “ @ around 1540. Before “ launching “ its sky rocketing “rally” above 3000.
Btc wave 5 will surprise everyoneHow are you HODL'rs holding up? Are you buying? Getting a divorce lol... She'll be back in a year or two as we already know.
Here is my prediction on this run. No one has anticipated such a run as we have had and it has been difficult for many amazing analysts to keep a high % of correct analysis albeit, some are gaining notoriety as they had predicted bearish price action and have even labeled this the bear market. Yet, how do we define a crypto bear market? Well the most noted determining factor is about an 80% pullback in the price of Bitcoin and around 90% for most alts. Yet, here we are with only a 60% pullback on Bitcoin and most alts have already done the 90% retracement or more for the less fortunate coins.
So where does that leave us? In my humbled option I believe we have not completed this run and entered a bear market as most are assuming. I do hold weight to the ideals that each run will extend longer as more consumers enter the market and raise the overall market cap, along with the law of diminishing returns this is something we should all take into consideration. That said, If you just look at this run starting from the bottom of the 2018 Bear market and apply a simple Elliott Wave 1-5 you will see that we have completed waves 1-3 and are currently playing out an Extended Flat correction for wave 4. If this plays to be true, based on the correction of wave C in wave 4 the price can fall down to two different fib retracements of waves A&B, those targets being the 1.236 and the 1.618 fibs. Since we have already passed the 1.236 it is likely we retrace to the 1.618 before heading into another impulse wave and completing the 5th wave before we see the typical 80% pullback. It is important to also note that we are currently at the 200 weekly SMA which has previously held as the market bottom in every bitcoin retracement in history.
A lot of factors played into the fact that we have had a different run than your typical run we have either all experienced or studied on the charts. You'll hear many reasons, some require a tinfoil hat and others are the more obvious reasons.... Yet, if you ask me, it was due to the few bitcoin futures ETF's that were approved. If you want to further investigate this, go back to 2017 and put the first bitcoin futures product released on the CME on the date and price of BTC, then move further down the line and place each one that has been approved since and I bet you will start seeing the trend. You can use this information in the future by staying up on the products being released on crypto assets. Just a hunch but, if you see something that has had a nice run and is being approved for a futures product, You may want to consider looking for ways to make profits on the way down.
I hope you enjoyed the idea and information. If you have, let me know in the comments, ask questions, lets discuss... we are all in this together, lets play like a team should!
Have a green week!
SAVVY
Below I have a link for you to read more in depth about Elliot Wave's and the fibs related to them to better your understanding of the chart I have posted.
elliottwave-forecast.com
I hope with all of the doom and gloom this will provide some clarity and set your mind at ease... and remember, Sell the hype and buy when the streets are soaked in blood... Now is the opposite of the time to panic sell at a loss.
Bitcoin Pauses to Give Bulls Early Dose of HopiumBased on recent and continual analysis of Bitcoin, I believe that an upside trip to $32070 is minimally required (based on my perspective of the Elliott Wave count). This will serve as the final resistance level before Bitcoin takes an anticipated dip to $24K. From here, the crypto world will re-enter the "BTC to $100K" mindframe but that may become a troublesome idea.
See recent Bitcoin related posts for more perspective. For continued, near real-time analysis join the Digital Surf Trading Community.