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Long Story Short (Part 3)While I've analyzed ETH/USD I realized that we could be in a WXY sequence, but due to disproportionate measurements by fib I can understand we may be at SUPER CYCLE ABC correction. If we will take a closer look at RED 'C' wave, we will notice it is a structure of 5 sub count wave as it spouses to be: One closer look at the last 5th wave will unfold an extended 3rd wave in Yellow which his sub count in thin RED: By this analysis, we are getting closer to the period of time which the big Impuls will ignite a new bull's period.
by josque
Long Story Short (Part 2)Hello to all crypto enthusiast, we are standing in a very interesting time in the crypto sphere, I'll try to make this idea as simple as I can, even if you are not familiar. with Elliot wave theory, you can get here a nice amount of information about it. I will start with a disclaimer, It is important to me to clarify that my analysis are not a recommendation of any kind, this is only my idea and you should do your own research! Collecting data: Facts - 1) our WXYXZ correction structure is over, you can see my analysis about it at ' Long Story Sort ' part1 and in the video I made ' The Similarities ETH vs BTC '. 2) An impulse wave is following a correction structure, it starts at 17.12.2018 and ends in 01.07.2019 3) our last correction is in a flat correction wave count. Flat corrections - (regular, running, expanded) Flat correction is made of (3,3,5) counting, correction wave are noted as ABC, the first wave (A) is made of 3 smaller degree waves, the second wave (B) is made of 3 waves as well and the third wave (C) is made of 5 smaller degree waves, that's why the (3,3,5). Regular Flat Correction - when wave (B) doesn't cross up wave (A) top and wave (C) is equal in length to wave A, you can measure that with fib ext Running Flat Correction - wave (B) cross up wave (A) top by 1.238% fib ext and wave (C) just above the end of wave (A) Expanded Flat Correction - when wave (B) cross the starting point of wave (A) by 1.238-1.382 fib ext and wave (C) moving beyond the ending point of wave (A) by 1.618 and sometimes even to 2.618 of fib ext Analysis: I will divide my analysis into 2 frameworks, the first is the color of the rectangles and the second is the color of the wave lines. Lines explanation- Black line - showing us the whole move of wave 2, the intermediate degree ABC Red line - presenting the Minor degree, which follows the one smaller degree of the intermediate and reveals the structure of each intermediate (black) wave Blue line - under bracks the structure of the minor (Red) and reveals what it made of Rectangles explanation- Red - framing the first correction A Yellow - divides the B correction to two halves, the first is about the expanded flat correction Green - the second half of the B wave Black line - the wave line is presenting the big picture, In my analysis, I choose to present a situation which the big move will be a regular flat correction, this desition made because the rule in EWT that says that wave number 2 will retrace 61.8% out of the first wave and as we can see for now, the bulls fight to keep those price level. with all that been said, the prices still can go to 88.6% and the analysis will be still valid. So if we understand that wave (A Black) is the beginning point of a regular flat and we know that in regular flat the length of wave A,B and C is approximately equal, so by measuring wave (A black) we can get to 355$ at the top of wave (B black) which eventually will lead us to the last target of wave (C black) to the same price level at the bottom of our current correction. Red line, red rectangle - this is genesis, which leads me to the conclusion that we are in the middle of a bigger correction, as you can see, the red line in the red zone in for ABC, but if you will take a closer look at the structure it self (blue line) you will find the structure of it is (3,3,5) flat correction structure. At the beginning of zone yellow, you will notice an uprise move to 230$ and then a crash to 160$, if the crash wasn't crossing down the support line of the uprising move we could conclude it is an impulse wave. but it crossed it down, and so it lets us understand the correction has not been finished yet. Blue line, yellow zone - By EWT definition of expanded flat, we can understand we are looking at one in the border between the red and the yellow zone. Yellow line, green zone - the rest of the analysis from here is a bit hard to determine due to insufficient data, it is not a simple task to understand properly the structure of the chart when we have only the EWT guidelines, but still I drew them just to represent the sentiment it will may go. I really hope I made it not to complex to follow and to understand, after all, it is a bit complex subject to understand and a bit complex idea, but... If you have any question regarding this or any other idea of mine, you are more than welcome to hit me up in the comments and I'll do my best to answer when it is possible ;)
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by josque
Possible scenario - extended flat There is a possibility we are looking at extended flat correction creation, we have to remember that on our bigger picture we are still at the 4th wave, extended flat are common correction on the 4th wave. Also please notice the fib ext I’ve added, the one from the left is representing the whole move ABC, in extended flat correction wave B reaches to 1.38% from wave A. Wave B is subdivided to ABC as well, by EWT wave A is equal to the length of wave C, the middle fib ext is representing the equlicity of wave A with wave C which validates our previews move cause, both left and middle fib ext projects for the same price target. The right fib ext shows us the final destination of the wave which is also determined by 1.38 of the whole move. This is only a hypothesis, the move is incomplete so it’s bit hard to completely determine, we just have to wait and see... Best of luck to us all...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by josque
2
Bitcoin LONG / 3-3-5 Flat Correction - HOLD ITI'm long again. After reviewing the post of some of my supporters, other opinions I value, and stepping back and looking again at my count I believe the bottom of 2 is still valid even though it slightly extended past the 78.6 Fib. If this level gets broken I'm out again to reevaluate the situation. P.S. If we just double bottom I'm adding to my long position. Would you believe me if I said we might hit $10K tonight? We could..... Since price did not break the previous low I am counting it as the bottom of wave 2. The next Wave 3 will be the tell. If Wave 3 consists of 5 sub-waves that measure impulsive instead of corrective then what we have seen is most likely a 3-3-5 Flat correction and BTC will start moving up from here. If, however, the Fibs of the Wave 3 sub-waves measure correctively then further downside would be expected. Instead of being a 12345 move North it could turn into more of an ABC correction and start moving down again. Like I said, the tell will be in how the next sub-waves play out. I'm still long unless this next move turns out to be corrective. If so, I'll bail and look for a better entry at lower prices. P.S. If you are not familiar with the term 3-3-5 Flat Correction do a Goggle search and look at some of the examples. You will quickly see this is a good match for what is currently going on. The only question is whether it continues to play out like this morphs into something else. Good luck and have a nice day! *** There is no certainty. Just like our life. Who guarantees I'll be alive in a moment? These are expectations, probabilities. God be with us today and always
BITMEX:XBTLong
by ferGOD
5
Last Wave up for Bitcoin? - Flat CorrectionAn Elliott Wave analysis on the current price action suggests that Bitcoin's current correction may be over. I have drawn a channel that the price is likely to follow with my estimate target of 15-17k. Should the support fail, we will most likely be filling a futures gap at $8,500. In the event that we do drop to $8,500, I would expect to see a quick move back up for the bullish continuation. Laying at those low levels increases the risk that we shall see 6k levels next. -Hawk
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PLong
by spyxo2x
3
USDCAD: trying to make sense of the madnesssince the beginning of April Ucad has been stuck in a 104 pip range and has created confusion with my analysis. however, I believe we are looking at a stretched out flat correction starting 7th march to now so we can get our final leg up before we get the expected drop. the pattern that was developing during the month of April I identified to be a WXYXZ and will expect a move down to around 1.3280 (monthly support) or even 1.3250 (next major support level). what would be ideal is seeing a move to the downside to confirm my analysis and i would be able to look for opportunities on the 1-5 min time frame.
Short
by lafayettej
1