FLT:ASX The current situationA friend owns FLT . He was looking for some information as to whether he should hold (without disclosing his entry price), so here's my explanation.
Note : It makes it a lot easier to 'tell someone whether they should hold or sell' if I know the entry price. Why? Because trading profitably is about consistently cutting your losses quickly, and holding on to (or even doubling down during a pull back buy opportunity) your winners. If you do just that right, you can win with a very low ratio (E.g. Picking only 40% calls, correctly etc.)
The case for:
FLT's price is currently above it's 55 EMA (my favourite EMA to use - see orange line), and we're talking MONTHLY EMA.
It's also just breaking out, and holding (so far) above the downwards trend line.
Furthermore, during this blood bath going on (for many many stocks, ASX or not), it's holding above it's upward diagonal trend line.
If you look at the 55 Monthly EMA, and both trend lines mentioned above, you'll notice that as long as the price holds above ~$17.60 approximately, it's still a HOLD (if in already).
Would I be actively buying here? Depends. If there's nothing else to buy, maybe take a small pilot position here, however given the VIX is peaking and the entire market is a bit crazy, it's hard to tell.
Fibonacci levels* = DEF do not hold under $16.00. High risk of strong support there that, if breached? GNITE
Some questions (and risks) to fundamentally consider:
Could there be further international lockdowns? This would be bad (unless FLT focuses on local and domestic travel, which may be allowed)
Petrol prices' effects on flights and operating costs? If Ukraine/ Russia war continues, as well as other issues, and petrol keeps going up = this could be bad
Recession risk? If people are losing jobs (Carvana for example, even though the car market is ridiculous = can't get stock. So what do they do? Lay off people and buy online auction platform.**) they're less likely to take holidays for obvious reasons.
*Fibonacci levels drawn, using 'all time high' price and 'all time low' price (this is how I draw my fibonacci levels - they stay objective this way, and are applicable whether you're looking at a normal chart or log chart - so that's good!)
**This is why I refused to sell EVAuctions and other car domain names I own btw (for anyone who knows me and is reading this LOL). I saw this coming.
Thanks for reading!
[ Tendie.com coming soon ]
Flightcentre
Buy The Travel Sector The Omnicron variant has provided an investment opportunity in the travel sector.
Prior to the emergence of Omnicron, Travel destinations were beginning to plan pathways for reopening.
This gave confidence to the market that the future values of travel related stocks would be higher and as a result travel stocks recovered from pandemic market shock lows.
Since the start of the Omnicron market scare travel stocks have decreased in value significantly.
Currently, countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand are beginning the pathways back to pre covid travel levels by slowly easing entry restrictions.
Preliminary data shows Omnicron may be less severe and it will become the dominant variant. This gives us confidence that covid is mutating in a positive direction and the world will eventually open up as a result of the new variants low mortality rate.
We believe the travel sector will recover at some point leading us to conclude that current market valuations are selling at a discount.
Our plan is to front run the end of harsh pandemic travel restrictions and take a position in the travel sector.
The time horizon for this trade is between 8 weeks and 6 months.
We are expecting to close our position at a 10 to 30 percent gain.
Play Number One
Carnival Cruises, stock code CUK currently valued at 18 USD.
At the high of pandemic recovery Optimism, CUK was valued at 27 dollars. That is a 66 percent increase in your investment back to the last recovery top.
Note: ignore carnival stock CCL because it is selling at a premium which could narrow if the U S economy weakens further.
Play Number Two
Flight Centre FLT. You can get exposure to this company on the Australian Stock Exchange. Flight Centre recovered to a price of 25 Australian Dollars and now sits at 16 dollars. When optimism returns and creates momentum, FLT may experience a 66% gain back to the highest pandemic recovery point.
We will post updates in the comment section as new information comes to light.
Flight Centre - FLT AnalysisCurrently trading in a descending channel, a healthy retracement following FLT's pump for a few weeks. Could we see a break back to the upside after consolidating to the key level of support (yellow box)?
Ultimately long on FLT from a TA and Fundamental perspective.
Please let me know what you guys think, perhaps you have something else in mind? Any feedback is appreciated greatly.
Flightcentre (FLT) Entry Point @ $14.00 - $14.50Recently, Flight Centre has reached a post-pandemic high of $20.16 but is coming down now.
Flight Centre, however, has been bouncing between support at around $14 and resistance around $18.50 and because of this, I believe an entry point at around $14.00 to $14.50 is suitable.
Personally, I will set my stop-loss at $13 as a safety net and sell in the $16.50 to $17 range potentially giving the trade a 20% upside. You could ride it out to around ~$18, however, since travel is still a risky bet I would like to secure profits earlier.
Please do your own research before buying.
Thanks :)
Last Boarding CallAs the vaccines roll out and the world over comes the pandemic, travel will be popular among many that have been unable to for the past year.
While still heavily oversold (75% below the all time high in 2018) flight centre remains in a good position to bounce back.
Currently in a rising wedge, price is situated on support and is likely to take off.
AWA's Travel Survey (2020)
69% of Australians hope to travel within the first six months of restrictions being lifted
50% are keen to travel for two weeks or more on their next holiday
74% said they would be comfortable spending just as much on their next holiday as they did pre COVID-19
FLT PredictionAs predicted from my last post, FLT took a big dive all the way down to $11.26 last week. If you bought FLT at $11.26 last week you would be up 27%. It has passed previous resistance however last time it reached the resistance line, it bounced up and plummeted down to $11.26. Due to increasing COVID cases in America and Biden's plan to tackle COVID-19 it may begin a downtrend. However, Australia itself has recovered and hopefully positive news for the Australian economy will come out soon. It the meantime, except FLT to begin a downtrend.