Regression lines suggest the BTC top is around 17k for 2020Moore's law has tought us that historic evolutionary patterns are happening 10 times faster after each new technological or scientific breakthrough when it hits the mainstream public worldwide. This breakthrough is then followed by a parabolic and very bubbly event, only to face a dozens month old bloody correction, while finally allowing the new market to mature as it becomes adopted and globally regulated. The end result causes yesterday's all time highs to become tomorrow's new bottoms. But what history has shown is that only a few select will rank above everything else and this will only take place when the potential promise of a strong vision is fulfilled on a global scale changing humanity's habits in a way we never thought possible.
The last time a transition like the one I'm describing above happened was between 1984 and 2020. This has been a time of great change that started when Nasdaq introduced the internet to the world as early as the 1980s. When the Soviet Union was falling and the Berlin wall fell a new world was being reshaped thanks to the start of the internet era. These highlights preceded another historic event 2 decades later. Of course, we've all heard about 9/11 and how it paralized the entire world in 2001. After the dust settled, it took the internet market almost 6 years to hit the peak of a sucker's relief rally and mark the end of the dotcom bubble burst. The parabolic unexpected rise that the internet bubble displayed the first time, was something that is still unbelievable to this day. Even though denial and disbelief are a thing of the past, we can still wonder what those so called experts have to say today when asked if our computer pundits lacked all common sense back in the day? Well look at how unimaginably far "electronic wonderland" has come. The internet did indeed replace traditional systems used by banks and governments in the 1990s. Now another global event is about to close a chapter that started as early as 2008 when the global recession took place. We're seeing one after another industrial revolution, each time happening exponentially faster and in a more impactful way than the previous one. The world is being taken by storm yet again, as cryptocurrencies more than outperformed in the last quarter of 2017 and in the early days of 2018. In contrast and just like the dotcom bubble peak back in 2001, both astonishing events preceded a very bloody correction in the 2 years that followed. Both events witnessed by today's freelancer and entrepreneurial millenials, saw Nasdaq find the true bottom around the fourth quarter of 2002 followed by a crystal clear relief sucker's rally that lasted 6 years up until 2007 soon ensued by a higher bottom to spike a much much bigger rally that continues today.
Now that the cryptocurrency market is maturing, we can see history in the making as bitcoin did indeed reach a massive technological breakthrough at the end of 2017 followed by a 2 year bloody correction. This time though, moore's law didn't disappoint as the bitcoin market printed a 6 month sucker's relief rally ensued by a higher bottom just a few short months later, signaling an extended bear market and a slower future rally, a more progressive but healthier bullrun between next 2022 and 2023, if not earlier.
When comparing 2017 to the doctom bubble, it seems a massive new technology explosion took place 15 times faster than the euphoria experienced in 2001.
When looking at bitcoin's algorithmic hashrate, it seems Q2 of 2019 was a sucker's rally, similar to the one experienced in 2015.
Contrasting today's massive performance on the stocks that survived 2001's doctom bubble after reaching 98% losses from ATHs followed by a slow rise amidst regulation and adoption,
the crypto market is a trillionaire market in the making and the trend should continue as follows:
2013 has been very similar to 2017 in the crypto market.
2014 was very similar to 2018 where a gigantic bloody correction burst the bubble yet again.
2015 saw a sucker's rally signaling a bottom and a future rally potential, just like it happened early January of 2019
2016 Bitcoin had it's second halving, taking it from $185 early January 2015 bottom to $780 June 2016.
As miner difficulty increases and bitcoin becomes more scarce, covid-19 impacts every small business including those in the crypto industry causing a massive miner capitulation. Moreover, the block reward will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC .
With a pool of 15,700 miners left from hundreds of thousands will put the price of bitcoin anywhere from 16k to 53k around the date of the next bitcoin halving till mid 2023.
( BTC Price: $7000 x 6.25 = $43.750).
Institutional Trading is Heating Up
There is currently only a bit more than $2B in crypto. There was a large study done by JPMorgan, which found out that every $1B that goes into crypto increases the market cap by $50B.
So, this means that the actual FIAT money that went into crypto over the last few years is only 2% of what the total amount of cryptos are worth and that there is only $2.2B in crypto total right now, because $2.2B * 50 =$110B, that’s what all crypto is currently worth.
At the height of the last bull run, there were around $20B in crypto.
Say Bitcoin reaches a $30,000 price and a $240B market cap, we would probably be at a total $1T market cap.
There is only $20B entering crypto needed this year, since every $1B that enters crypto, increases the market cap by $50B.
BAKKT, Fidelity and ETFs could easily add $10B to this, which would make the crypto market increase by 5x alone.
Add small investors, Bitcoin whales and we are at $20B and a $1T total market cap again like in 2017, where we topped out at $800B total crypto market cap.
As 2020 arrived with a big bang, we see a strong indicator of what's to come in this exciting brave new orwellian and huxle'y's world, there's a big green light that the cryptocurrency and blockchain market is going to shock the world 10 times faster than the internet 2.0 market has to date! Nevertheless and regardless of the current Pandemic, bitcoin is still following a perfect trace of regressive models run by bots on the biggest crypto exchanges. 16k to 17k is the top for now I'm afraid.
