Mastering Emotional DisciplineMastering Emotional Discipline: The Key to Successful Investment Decision-Making
Introduction
Investing in financial markets can be an emotional rollercoaster. Fear, greed, and euphoria often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive and irrational decisions. One crucial lesson for successful investors is the significance of emotional discipline in investment decision-making. In this blog post, we will delve into the importance of keeping emotions in check and how it can lead to more informed and prudent investment choices.
The Impact of Emotions on Investment Decisions
Emotions can significantly influence how we perceive and react to market movements and financial news. Some common emotional biases include:
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): Feeling the urge to invest in a rapidly rising asset, driven by the fear of missing out on potential gains.
Loss Aversion: Placing more emphasis on avoiding losses than achieving gains, often leading to holding onto losing positions for too long.
Overconfidence: Being overly confident in one's investment abilities, leading to excessive risk-taking and overconcentration in high-risk assets.
Herding Behavior: Following the crowd and making investment decisions based on the actions of others rather than on individual analysis.
The Importance of Emotional Discipline
Rational Decision-Making: Emotional discipline allows investors to make rational, well-thought-out decisions based on fundamental analysis and research rather than impulsive reactions.
Long-Term Perspective: Emotional discipline helps investors maintain a long-term perspective, enabling them to ride out short-term market volatility and focus on their investment goals.
Avoiding Herding Behavior: By staying emotionally disciplined, investors can avoid the pitfalls of herd mentality and make independent decisions based on their own convictions.
Risk Management: Emotional discipline is essential for effective risk management. It helps investors set and stick to stop-loss levels and position sizes that align with their risk tolerance.
Strategies for Maintaining Emotional Discipline
Investment Plan: Develop a well-defined investment plan based on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Stick to the plan, even during turbulent market conditions.
Avoid Impulsive Actions: Before making any investment decisions, take a step back, and assess the situation objectively. Avoid impulsive actions driven by emotions.
Diversification: A diversified portfolio can reduce the impact of individual asset volatility, reducing emotional stress during market fluctuations.
Focus on Fundamentals: Rely on fundamental analysis and research rather than short-term market movements. Solid research provides a more objective basis for investment decisions.
Conclusion
Emotional discipline is a critical aspect of successful investment decision-making. By recognizing and managing emotional biases, investors can make rational choices aligned with their long-term financial goals. Embrace emotional discipline as your guiding light in the tumultuous world of investing, and let it pave the way to a more confident and rewarding investment journey.
Remember, investing is a journey, not a race. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and stay on track to achieve your financial aspirations.
Focus
The three O's that have to go ❌The O’s in your trading game that have to go are shown drawn on the chart.
The three O’s in the idea can all overlap one another and allowing one to creep in can lead to any of the other also creeping in to your trading.
We have all suffered at some point in our trading journeys of these three phenomena.
All of these O’s can lead to capital being impacted and potentially a blown account.
We’ll start with over trading.
On the face of it, over trading is taking too many trades.
Over trading can occur when chasing losses or being on a particularly good winning steak.
Either of those situations mentioned is essentially a loss of control.
The loss of control leads to a loss of focus.
The loss of focus leads to too many trades.
Too many of those trades will be stupid trades.
Those stupid trades will be losing trades at some point.
All these trades mean increased commissions.
The cycle continues and instead of compounding profits the only thing being compounded is risk.
Compounded risk leads to losses and if the cycle isn’t broken a blown trading account awaits.
Next is over risking.
Risk management is key to any trading plan being successful.
Stating the obvious in that first sentence.
But I’m also stating the obvious when I say we’ve all been there and risked more than we should on some trades.
Over risking more than our capital allows will only lead to tears and one outcome which is the blown account outcome.
We end with overconfidence
Probably the worse O of the three to allow in your trading behaviours!
Allowing this one to sneak in can quickly allow the other two already covered to sneak in.
Usually seen as a positive emotion in the world we live in, this emotion can quickly become a negative emotion in the trading world.
Allowing this emotion to creep in blurs our perceptions to so many concepts we need for trading and can lead to a gambling mentality.
Greed will take hold with overconfidence and when the winning streak comes to a cashing end the trader runs the risk of allowing the other two O’s to creep in leading to only one outcome.
The blown account yet again.
The O’s can crossover
All of the traits mentioned can be experienced individually or some can crossover one another. Below are a few examples.
We covered in the overconfidence how it can lead to the O’s creeping in. Overconfidence from a winning streak leads to overtrading which in turn leads to an inevitable losing streak and capital impacted with losses.
Worse case scenario is overconfidence from a good run of trades leads to over risking on the next set of trades which loose. You then end up over trading in revenge to gain back the losses which could lead to yet more losses.
You could be a new trader starting out with no confidence.
You start to over risk from the off and lead to your trading account being blown.
You could over trade combined with over risking which accelerates the loss of trading capital.
In those scenarios mentioned confidence hasn’t been an issue at all. But risk management and trade volume have.
How to avoid the O’s
I'm pretty sure we all suffer one of O traits at some point in our trading journey.
The key is to recognise the incident and the issues it caused and learn from that.
It lies with us as individuals to own up to our trading mistakes. Some of us will suffer all three O’s in our trading paths.
In owning up to our shortcomings all the O’s can be avoided going forward in your trading life's.
Hope you all enjoy your trading week.
Darren
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No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
Thank you.
Stocks To Watch This WeekThe Market is pulling back, this week I expect the market to by choppy. This is the Relative Strength Edition of Stocks to Watch. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 18 total stocks on this list. I add an additional 3 stocks that are on my potential short squeeze watch list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
AUDJPY - Possible Opportunity? When people decide to learn how to trade, it’s usually because they have been fed this idea that trading will be the answer to all their financial troubles. Yet for me personally, that idea couldn't be further from the truth. Now I am not saying that trading cannot give you a better life or offer you more time to do the things you love, but rather that troubles, be it financial, personal, or even relational are an inevitable part of life and no amount of money can dispute that. The moment you are able to accept this reality, the easier your journey will become. Too many people look to trading as the answer to their troubles, yet if you, not careful trading can very easily contribute to your existing challenges.
So for those of you looking to take trading up as a profession, remember, it’s not going to solve all of your problems, in the early parts of your journey you may experience levels of frustration that you never knew you could feel. You will be faced with decisions that may even drive you insane, "should I buy or should I sell? Maybe I should stay out; but what if I'm right? HAAAAAAAAA" But if you continue to commit, if you continue to persevere, the journey will get easier. You will feel happier, you will learn to accept that you don't have to have all the answers and that you don't have to be right to be successful. You just have to endure, persevere, and commit, and that will help you live a better, happier, and more fulfilled life.
With all that being said over here we are looking at the AUDJPY for a potential short. As with many things in trading, there is no certainty, only probability, and based on my trading system I find that there is tremendous opportunity to short the AUDJPY. The reasons are as follows:
1. Price is on a key Area of Value (AOV)
2. Potential 2nd touch at the top of the daily ascending channel.
3. Intra-day triple top.
4. 1H ascending channel.
These are the 4 key reasons that shaped my bias for this pair. However, I would like to ask that you share your thoughts, and please feel free to ask as many questions.
For more information check out: www.wealthtip.co.za
Link - Get Rich or Rekt Volume 2.0Last Link Trade went 100% perfect, you can take an look below this chart.
Today we watch Link get an perfect retracment to the first Support Line he´s drawing since October and pumped right against it.
So whats next?
We got only two Resi, if we flip the 12.98 we go the the Resi at 13.8, when we break that we go for an full breakout with Target of 18$.
You got an R:R of 8:1
SL below the Support, which we see at the first green Line.
Stay Focus!
FOCUS - Almost There#FOCUS
Rst: 1.51
Spp: 1.23
This stock is pending to collapse, it’s brewing second wave of RSI bearish divergence, yes the stock still can have another few candles of sharp rise, probably until upper BB, with anticipation RSI third wave bearish divergence to be generated the time it reaches upper BB, then things may start to melt.
NZDCAD short 1:1 RR from 1hr Resistance I took this short because at the time I thought that it was a valid trade. I followed my process, I followed my plan... however during the middle of the trade I realized that the 15m structure over the last 24 hours was creating HH's and HL's. This does not meet my setup criteria. It took this trade for me to realize that I need to add this concept to my filtering process in the morning. That's what I took from this trade. Additionally my execution on the supposed "valid " trade was poor as well. I was rushing to get my entry in. I feel like my more refined process will enable me to relax and trade logically. Not consumed by the Fear of Missing out. That is if I decide to follow the plan/process I have for myself each morning. Price actually got to TP area but my intuition was telling me that we were going to keep heading down. I removed TP order and price decided to reverse on me. I suppose this is another lesson. Take what the market gives you.
Every market is very different. You have to be a specialist.There is a good reason firms hire people to trade a single asset class (oil, cocoa, us bonds...).
And at the other end of the spectrum: Fresh retail traders start following a signal newsletter, they don't care about learning how markets work, they could not care less about history, fundamentals, etc. They follow some dumb service that pumps out signals on 50 FX pairs, 50 cryptocurrencies, and 20 futures. They chase trades, "as much as possible", and get rekt. This is different than baghodlers that buy something and hold it to zero they are another category. The 2 groups (noob retail short term gamblers and noob bagholders): They DO NOT WANT TO MISS OUT.
You're not going to compete by looking at a hundred different charts.
I am all for diversification thought, I don't think watching a single chart is the only way to go.
And what are going to do when your 1 asset is not going anywhere?
It's best to start with only one, till you know what you are doing.
Then add another and get comfortable with it, and another. That's my opinion.
A way to still be rather focussed while having a large watchlist, is to have your watchlist made of things that work similarly, that you understand the ins and outs of, have some experience and backtested it, AND just 1 strategy (including variations).
Also, the shorter term, the less you can work on. Don't day trade, it's stupid. 98% lose and those that win make $3000 a year on average, something like that.
Are there any merchants that throws his wares in the bin every evening? Even restaurants don't throw everything...
And are you going to analyse 50 different currencies in depth every week? Even if you don't lose your mind, I have my idea about the quality of those 50 analysis.
The only people I know of that do that and make money with it are:
A- Trading educators that tell you it works and you can turn $500 into $500,000 in 2 months with no risk.
B- Signal providers, robots sellers, copy traders.
There were some people that looked at businesses and they found something like less than 1% of their products made 90% of their profits, and the rest was just a waste of money.
Are you going to spend 99% of your time working on things that don't work and paying comissions? Which eliminate anything you made with the remaining 1%.
Here are my watchlists, which I analyse every weekend, set price alerts, and then during the week I will go in more depth on 1 to 5 of them (out of 22):
I like big things, all volumes are above $10 billion.
My typical holding duration is pretty short, 3 days to 2 weeks.
I also look at indices because can't ignore this, and Bitcoin because that's what every one talks and cares about (we are very early thought).
I find 22 charts (with alot of similarities) manageable, but this amount is too much for most people.
I consider myself to have capacitites to process alot more info than other people in a short time. I have an informed opinion on all of the 10 currencies I watch (17 pairs made of 10 currencies) as well as 5 commodities.
And I spend my entire days every day looking at the newsflow on these currencies and commodities. Got nothing else to do.
And even then 22 charts might seem much, but alot of them share the same fundamentals/news.
Pound pairs all intersect with pound news and the associated major news (GBPAUD + AUDUSD + GBPUSD...).
Plus remember I really only have 1 very specific strategy (there are variants but it works the same), will set price alerts on support, and then I will spend alot of time on the handful of charts that pop an alert.
I call myself very smart with big capacities, people say it's arrogant, no one complained when from school to work I was always misunderstood, I had to dumb down my ideas, people found me weird.
No problem then, not a single person complained about me being called weird, my ideas "too far fetched", "distorded mind", but if I dare call myself a genius "WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE".
It just makes me cringe when average Joe Schmo the struggler that had so much difficulties understanding basic maths at school, think he's going to land here, with his day job, part time day trade 30 currency pairs and 20 cryptos with his stupid indicators and signal service, and think he is going to beat the top brains of wall street and most exceptional individuals in the world. LOL XD The delusion is too much to handle XD
With all my my watchlist, Elliot Waves work great. Also trends, support and resistance, and bottom patterns.
Now I will quote St Louis Fed on FX stocks & commodities:
Personally I do not think agri is not to be included in "commodities".
They have infinity repeating patterns, but my uneducated guess is what drives them most is "news" (trade taxes...) and the weather.
I will link my source for once: files.stlouisfed.org
They say that perhaps the returns are not proof of market inefficiency but compensation for risks taken.
Market efficiency. Seriously anyone that thinks markets are efficient is a friggin moron.
Humans are way more stupid than they think. They have to be the most delusional creatures in the entire universe.
When european indices in japan trade for 5 times the price, it's efficient?
Price to earning wildly fluctuating is efficient? Wat? How?
Just show those people ignorance.
"It's impossible to make money, I tried and failed, if it was possible it would mean I am an imbecile, this is impossible".
Drop the 70 charts. A handful of uncorrelated currencies or commodities or stocks is all you need.
I would advice starting in the first 1-2 years with 2 or 3 different charts and get to know them.
You could work your way up to a dozen, but if they are all completely different that's too much even for a genius (which you very probably are not).
The lower amount of charts you look at, the more patterns you will recognize (but I think having a decent knowledge on more than just 1 is important), you will know what the long term charts are like without having to check all the time, you will know the entire news history of it, as well as how the price reacted, and so much more. Good luck just remembering the weekly chart for 50 different currencies and indices.
All the famous betters are known for getting very much in details on a few select commodities currencies or stocks, and making big winners.
All Jesse Lauriston Livermore was trade Union Pacific, short the stock market which made him rich, and deal with cotton right? He did not touch alot more than this did he?
George Soros is famous not only for trying to destroy the world (I think I understand what his reasons are), but also for making big bets on currencies.
He finds one he does alot of research on it, there is not stupid robot pissing out random signals every 10 minutes. Well actually now that he does quant...
But that's different.
William Delbert Gann only focussed on agri commodities (correct me if I am wrong but the full list is Grains Cotton Lard not even sure he traded all of those).
Richard Dennis ==> Chicago Commodities
PTJ ==> Stock Market
Warren Buffet & his sidekick ==> A few stocks, and some fixed income. In their whole life they only ever really owned a few stocks.
Charlie Munger "See your whole life decisions as a punchcard with 20 holes in it..."
Apart from trading educators there is NO ONE that got anywhere by being a machine gunner firing from the hip.
All the successful traders in the world have, are, and will always be, snipers with devastating power & precision.
(Not saying you should not supplement your core analysis with watching other markets that have an impact - big indices for examples are important to understand the big picture).
Stop following machine gunners, learn to obtain lazer focus, understand the ins and outs of a few select instruments, and you will see your performance go up, as well as should have a much clearer mind and be more "relaxed" (which in turn will give better results).
AUDUSD LONG - potential for an amazing tradeHello all
Following the pullback over the end of last wee into this week
On the daily time frame, we now have a double bottom, forming.
Along with divergence on the RSI
Yesterday's daily candle was broken on the high and after a retrace to previous resistance (now support) - AUD has gained strength again back to near highs of the day (so far)
I entered at 0.6856 and have a buy stop for 3 more entries around 0.6880 area.
I have a good space for price to move - if on the FED news the price heads lower - I will look to use this as to get a better price - increase my lot size and reduce my pip distance between entry and stop - risking just 1% on each trade.
That may happen quick so you have to be focused.
It meets my trade plan and I will be in this trade for the long term.
I think with the previous related trade ideas - this could go up to 0.7500 area.
Price may plummet - go on a stop hunt down to the 0.6820 area - however for me this will be a fake out and not head lower - just a better opportunity to go long.
Thanks for looking
Duncanforex.com coming within 10 days.
GBPAUDPAIR : GBPAUD
REASON : My reason for entering this trade is quite simple. We are currently in an ABCD movement and are now looking to complete it by taking
profit at D Leg. Missed my entry point at C leg but fortunately enough price action given us another another entry point and now looking for price action to head towards our take profit.
pound yen analysis dec28 2017 : short then long Hi everyone
if we going south a bit more I have marked out an area which can be great risk to reward to get in on this trade if we see some bullish confirmation and a huge plus if we break to the upside
be warned though this market can slip further south if it doesn't stop where my tp is and keeps running : so If this market does run look for signs of change is my analysis on the market
Kris
GBPJPY expecting a reaction on 150 for down side After the movement of Gbpjpy Friday it gained 150+ pips in one day , market still in consolidation correcting the down movement from highs (152.865-147.280) the way market moving last week it is corrective. still expecting more down side once this consolidation is broken down,
links below for my previous exceptions.
MY THOUGHT'S ON NZDUSD (KIWI) BIAS : SHORT
DESCRIPTION : FROM MY LAST PREVIOUS POST YOU CAN SEE THAT WE WENT FOR SCENARIO B WHICH WAS WAIT FOR PRICE ACTION TO BREAK OUR SUPPORT @0.71700 AND RETEST SUPPORT WHICH WILL BE RESISTANCE AND HEAD DOWN TO OUR SUPPORT @0.70700.
CLEAN SIMPLY TRADING.
GOOD LUCK TRADING !!
Patience: Free money? RALLY NORTH USDCAD? Take A lookI would look to continue rally north. Unless we can have a clear short south.
Aggressive "turbulence" around $1.35. Multiple retest and shorts, However in this scenario. I like our odds on a rise.
Personally, I feel price has to have a reason fundamentally and technically to drop and retest 1.32-1.30 again.
Also I like the rejections off of the trend line.
Do you're homework guys. Much love happy trading =)
Profit Blue Tip:
Sometimes you have to Zoom out to see bigger opportunities
Patience. Look for price to bounce off $1.35 & retest before going north.
IG:WallstreetJon
Stay in touch,
BlueNoteFx
Why its SO important to stay DISCIPLINED!!!Here is a great example on why it's so important to stick to your plan and follow your rules 100%!
GBPAUD 60min Bear TCT: Notes are on the chart
Would you have been disciplined enough to watch the market get 99.9% to Target #1 and sit through a 150 Pip Reversal and losing half of your profits? Then watch the market come down and Double Bottom just ahead of Target #1. Seeing a Bullish Hammer at the Double Bottom?
If you did have enough Discipline/Focus then you would have been rewarded with a lot of Pips!
In these situations I always remember what my Mentor preaches... "It's all about Process over Outcome". What this means is that it's not about the money or pips you make but its about your process of trading. Will you follow your Trading Plan that you have backtested? Will you stay Disciplined? Will you stay Focused? Will you forget about the money and just focus on the Process!!!???
If you can then you will be that much closer to succeeding in this business!!
Happy Trading :)