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FOMC

Unveiling the Impact of #FOMC Decisions on #WTI, #Gold, #USD Today was #FOMC! I'm Sure most of us had same experience on BLACKBULL:WTI and $OANDA:XAUUSD. I Just wanted to write about What is #FOMC and It's impact on #WTI, #Gold and #USD, Maybe somebody has lots of questions about that, so I try to do my best regarding captioned subject. The Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) plays a crucial role in shaping monetary policy in the United States. The decisions made by this committee have significant implications for various financial markets, including commodities like West Texas Intermediate (#WTI) crude oil, #gold, and the U.S. dollar (#USD). Understanding the impact of FOMC decisions on these assets is essential for traders, investors, and market participants. The FOMC's Role and Decision-Making Process: The FOMC is composed of members from the Federal Reserve System who are responsible for setting monetary policy. These members regularly convene to assess economic conditions, review data, and deliberate on the best course of action. One of the most critical outcomes of these meetings is the announcement of the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs and has a broad impact on the financial landscape. BLACKBULL:WTI : FOMC decisions have a notable impact on WTI crude oil prices. Changes in interest rates directly affect borrowing costs for businesses, which, in turn, influence their operations and investment decisions. When interest rates decrease, economic growth is often stimulated, leading to increased demand for oil and potentially driving up prices. Conversely, an increase in interest rates may have the opposite effect, dampening economic activity and reducing oil demand. Additionally, FOMC decisions indirectly impact WTI crude oil prices through their effects on the U.S. dollar. Since oil is globally priced in dollars, fluctuations in the dollar's value can influence the purchasing power of oil-importing countries. A weaker dollar can make oil relatively cheaper, increasing demand and potentially bolstering #WTI prices. OANDA:XAUUSD : The relationship between FOMC decisions and gold prices is complex and multi-faceted. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset and a store of value during times of economic uncertainty. When the FOMC adopts a dovish or accommodative monetary policy stance, such as lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing measures, it diminishes the attractiveness of holding U.S. dollars. Consequently, investors may seek refuge in #gold, leading to an increase in gold prices. Conversely, a hawkish stance by the FOMC, signaled by raising interest rates or indicating tighter monetary policy, can strengthen the U.S. dollar and exert downward pressure on #gold prices. As interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not yield interest or dividends, increases. This can make alternative investments more appealing, potentially reducing demand for gold. PEPPERSTONE:USDX : FOMC decisions have a direct and significant impact on the value of the #USD. Changes in interest rates influence the relative attractiveness of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which in turn affects currency exchange rates. A rise in interest rates can make the #USD more appealing to investors seeking higher yields, potentially strengthening the currency. Conversely, a reduction in interest rates may lead to a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. Moreover, FOMC decisions and accompanying statements provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook. Favorable economic projections and indications of a tightening monetary policy can bolster confidence in the #USD. Conversely, cautious or pessimistic remarks may weaken the currency. Final Words: FOMC decisions have a substantial impact on #WTI crude oil, #gold, and the value of the #USD. Changes in interest rates directly influence borrowing costs, economic growth, and investment decisions, thereby impacting #WTI crude oil prices. Additionally, the effects of FOMC decisions on the U.S. dollar indirectly influence #WTI crude oil This article serves as a comprehensive guide, offering valuable insights that will enhance your understanding of the FOMC and its impact on financial markets AND May your journey through the intricacies of the FOMC empower you with a solid strategy and guide you towards successful trades, or encourage you to exercise caution and refrain from trading during these significant events. Wishing you the best of luck in your endeavors!
BLACKBULL:WTIEducation
by POUSHEINI
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC – 14/06/23 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ll start by saying we’ve had a decent week so far as well as month and will not be wanting to give anything back to the market. For that reason, we’re sharing the levels we have for the potential move and the regions to look for a reaction in price. It is expected to move, especially during the press conference which will take place after the statement. We would say best practice is to wait for them to take the price where they want, let is settle and look for signs of a reversal before jumping into a trade. We’ve seen a big range forming here over the last few weeks which has been used to accumulate orders, maybe now enough for Gold to find its feet and make the move many traders are anticipating. We have the immediate levels of 1950-55 order region which we are now above and potentially looking for the price to settle pre-event around here. We have the higher levels of 1980-85 which we were looking for on the KOG Report so target region for longs that are held from below could be around that level. If price is driven up into that region, we would be looking for resistance higher to potentially see a reaction in price and a confirmed reversal before even attempting to short it. On the flip side, we have order region 1930-35 and below that the extreme level of 1915-07 on the break. If the price is driven down, then we will potentially be looking here for a reaction in price and upon confirmed reversal signs look to take the long trade back up. As we’ve said above, we’re sharing our view with everyone but please do your own research. We’re not likely to enter any new trades, rather let the runners we have open run or close at break even. The best trades and set ups will come once the price has been taken to it’s level. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
$SPY Intra-Day Bearish SignalsIn terms of market direction, the short term trend is bullish, as the 9ema is trading above the 20ema. Moreover, the medium term trend is bullish, as the 20ema is trading above the 50ema. Finally, the long term trend is bullish, as the 50ema is trading above the 200ema. As a friendly reminder, given that all three trends are bullish, it would be prudent to think long and hard about whether or not there is truly a technical basis for entering a bearish swing trade at this time. That being said, how strong is the current trend? Notably, we closed above not only last week's high, but also the previous trading day's high as well. This is an indication that the bullish trend is rather strong. Another way that traders analyze the strength of a trend is by appeal to the Average Directional Index (ADX), in which high readings are suggestive of strong trends and low readings are suggestive of weak trends or chop. At the moment, the ADX has a value of 50.25, indicating an extremely strong trend that is likely soon approaching exhaustion and at risk of correction or reversal. We also have to consider the two main momentum oscillators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator. Currently, the RSI reading is 83.57, indicating that the market is technically overbought and may be due for a correction or trend reversal. For its part, the Stochastic Oscillator currently has a reading of 96, indicating that the market is technically overbought and may be due for a correction or trend reversal. Beyond the momentum oscillators, we also need to familiarize ourselves with the relationship between current price and the Bollinger Bands. At the moment, price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the uptrend may soon encounter resistance. With regard to the question of trend reversal, we need to check for any crossovers between certain indicators and their respective moving averages. Currently, the RSI is above its 14-candle moving average, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Currently, the Stochastic Oscillator is above its 3-candle moving average, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Finally, the MACD is above the signal, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Crosssover analysis is not the only way to test for potential trend reversal. Another strategy involves looking for divergence between indicator readings and price action. At this time, there is bearish divergence between RSI and price action. Moreover, there is currently bearish divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and price action. Finally, at this time there is currently no divergence between MACD and price action. -------- Short levels: 439.04, 441.07, 443.11, 445.14
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockJustice
Signs for a looming recessionInvestigating the 2008 recession, with specific regards to Interest Rates and Inflation. We can observe a similar pattern occur here. Should history rhyme, we will see at least some more months of bullish price action before the top is set. From there, months of slow decline, before bearish acceleration kicks in - deflation. Correlative projection puts the top in April 2024, however I have reason to believe that it will happen earlier this time, sometime this year. Reason being, is that the dynamic is different. There is a lot more leverage and this isn't about a housing market. The USD is being ditched as world reserve currency. Generally, the price increases that we should see in the coming months, would pale in comparison to the price decreases that we will see later. Invest wisely, and stay safe.
SP:SPXShort
by Alien_Algorithms
GBPUSD I FOMC trading plan and levels to watch Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
by BKTradingAcademy
2
BTC ANALYSIS | FOMC news will decide the next directionBTC ANALYSIS | FOMC news will decide the next direction Ahead of the FOMC announcement in a couple of hours we are in a descending wedge/bull flag pattern that is a key identifier of consolidation and a precursor to a big move. Naturally until there is a break out it is difficult to determine the direction. The FOMC news should be a firestarter to gauge which way we are going to go here. So don't make any impulsive moves just yet and wait for the announcement and a commitment of direction from BTC.
by Kryptochristian
1
AUDUSD FOMC Prep 14th JuneThe AUDUSD approaches a key resistance at the 0.68 round number price level following a consistent climb since the start of June. If the DXY continues to weaken, down to the key support level of 103, the AUDUSD could break above the immediate resistance level of 0.68 and rise toward the next resistance level at 0.6920. However, the 0.68 resistance level is very crucial as the AUDUSD had previously reversed strongly from this level on the 14th April and 10th May. A reversal could happen if the FOMC surprises markets with a rate hike. In the more likely scenario, if the DXY weakens, look for the AUDUSD to break above the resistance level, and test the upward trendline again before continuing on to the next resistance level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY FOMC Prep 14th JuneIf the FOMC does pause on further rate hikes as forecasted, this is likely to cause further weakness in the DXY (read DXY analysis) Weakness in the DXY could see the USDJPY trade lower. The USDJPY has been range bound since the start of June, trading between the resistance of 140.40 and support of 138.74. Currently trading along the 140 price level, weakness in the DXY could see the price reverse lower, back down to the support level. Similar to the price action on the 5th of June. A surprise rate hike from the FOMC could see the USDJPY rise, but the upside would be limited with the next key resistance level around 141 (the previous swing high at the end of May) and also with the increasing belief that any surprise rate hike would be the last to come from the FOMC.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
DXY Outlook FOMC Prep 14th JuneWill the Federal Reserve finally decide to pause on further rate hikes, keeping interest rates at 5.25%, or will the Feds hike rates one final time to take rates to 5.50%? There has been much speculation about the likely outcome of the US FOMC regarding its interest rate decision. Especially with the most recent CPI data being released at 4.0% (Expected 4.1% Previous 4.9%) a significant slowdown in inflation growth is being witnessed and it is likely to play towards encouraging the Feds to pause on further hikes. Although the June unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, the NFP was still significantly stronger than expected at 339k. There are several technical analysis factors applying the downward pressures on the DXY, in particular, the downward trendline, 50MA and the 103.40 resistance level. If the Feds does pause on rates, I'd be looking for the DXY to trade down to the support area of 102.80 and 103, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
GBPUSD: Could the FOMC set up a resistance break?Today's focus: GBPUSD Pattern – HH HL continuation Possible targets – 1.2683, 1.2980 Support – 1.2305, 1.2493 Resistance – 1.2640, 1.2660 Today’s focus is on the GBPUSD after buyers made another strong move higher on Wednesday. That move continues the series of HLs and HHs this is a good thing to see in the current short-term uptrend. As discussed in today’s video, our attention is now on key resistance that has stood since May 22. Could a dovish tone from the Fed set the USD up for more downside? We did see a fightback after the CPI data and the Core remained high at 0.4%. If the Fed hold rates and hint more towards the dovish side in the statement, could that set the GBPUSD up for a new test or break of resistance, setting off a new trend continuation? For now, the GBPUSD, despite its short-term bullish move, remains consolidation bound.
Long
by Eightcap
USDJPY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring the USDJPY currency pair for a potential buying opportunity around the 139.700 zone. After trading in a downtrend, USDJPY has recently broken out and is currently in a correction phase approaching the retrace zone near the 139.700 support and resistance area. A key factor to consider today is the US monetary policy, specifically the Federal Reserve's interest rate release. If the statement reflects a more hawkish stance than expected, signaling potential future interest rate hikes, it could provide additional confirmation for a USDJPY buy trade. As traders, it is important to conduct thorough analysis, considering technical indicators, price charts, and patterns. Additionally, monitoring fundamental factors such as central bank decisions and economic data releases can provide valuable insights. It's crucial to stay informed about market sentiment and overall market conditions. Remember that trading involves risks, and it is advisable to have a well-defined trading plan, including risk management strategies, in place. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
20
Gold muted awaits the FOMC Monetary PolicyMay’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) came in lower than expected, showing that inflation may be cooling off. The gold price used to surge to $1,970, and then the traders liquidated their position. The gold price dropped below $1,950 since the market awaits the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Investors will look for clues on the Fed's interest rate hikes and monetary tightening plans. If the Fed signals a more aggressive tightening path, it could boost the dollar and bond yields, weighing on gold. Gold prices fell after the lower-than-expected CPI print but remain supported by longer-term inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and a wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC meeting. This week, the Fed’s tone, signals and the coming up U.S. data will be necessary for determining gold's next move.
TVC:GOLD
by ATFX_Global
Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates NewsWe saw our increase on Eurusd Halted after the Fed raised rates 3 weeks ago. Now we gain more information on the reasons for their decision. The market has had time to digest the rates and resulted in a substantial decrease for the month of May. We must now observe how the market reacts to their reasons for an increase in rates and the cost of money. Will the dollar continue it's momentum and we see a Eurusd decrease, or will Eurusd pivot bullish in the short term as it digests the Fed's reasoning's. Bear Targets for the rest of May and the month of June are - 1.06654 Weekly Zone - 1.05426 Weekly Zone Bull targets for the rest of May are - a return to Daily level 1.08725 Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push to 1.14655 Weekly level
by ShrewdCatfx
GBPUSD Approaching the weekly trend ahead of CPI data.Dear Traders, I'd like to bring your attention to the current market conditions of GBPUSD. It is currently experiencing a downtrend but is undergoing a correction phase. The price is approaching a significant resistance zone at 1.26100, which coincides with the major trend. This area is worth monitoring closely. In addition, it's crucial to take into account the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release this week. This economic indicator is expected to have a substantial impact on the strength of the US dollar and may provide insights into the future actions of Fed Chair Powell. If the CPI figures are higher than anticipated, it suggests that the Fed may need to continue raising interest rates, which could strengthen the dollar further. On the other hand, if the CPI falls below expectations, it is more likely that the Fed will postpone any rate hikes in their next monetary policy decision. Remember to prioritize risk management and trade with caution. Best regards, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
43
The Quiet before the Storm 🪁 : Eurusd With the close of the Daily candle in the next 1.5 Hours, Longs would prefer a candle closure above 1.0782. This would confirm another Higher High in market structure. In an uptrend price creates Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If this occurs then we can anticipate a bottom wick ( Higher Low) and then a consequential new bullish candle push to the upside back towards 1.0813 daily resistance zone. At this current time price is Bullish on the weekly timeframe and has broken the previously week's candles high. The Daily timeframe will print the second bullish candle of the week which was expected in my previous analysis. FOMC tomorrow will cause quite the stir. FOMC could cause Eurusd to easily dip back to retest 1.0746 Daily support level before continuing it's ascent or going into a volatile range. Price has reached my bullish target for the week which was 1.0813 ( a 65 pip increase ). CPI data has resulted in Higher High on the 1Hr timeframe. Price ended up pulling back and correcting the increase made during London session. We currently sit above our Daily S/R level 1.0782, late NY session Tuesday. New Bullish target for this week with fomc : 1.087 Daily resistance zone The way CPI data distributed at 1.0813 makes me think. We reached my weekly target 1.0813 before schedule. We had an initial increase in price and I'm sure some players bought the high and are now holding drawdown as we move into FOMC tomorrow. If I was a buyer I would consider getting out for B.E. because the Daily candle is closing in 1.5 hours with a significant top wick. Larger than the body of the bullish candle at least. New Bearish target for this week with fomc : 1.06915
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Charts Show Market Expects Fed to Pause but Big Resistance AheadTraders, Over 90% of the market is currently pricing in a FED rate pause tomorrow, but beware, the market often moves towards the point of maximum pain. My charts are showing we are at a critical point of resistance as I type this post. The bulls are going to have to conquer 4,370 and confirm it on the daily to convince me that the they are not out of steam just yet. From my perspective and the way I am reading this chart, is that the market may be in for a bit of a surprise pullback here. The blow-off top that I predicted well over a year ago is still currently underway and, IMO, will continue. But the market never goes to any future price point in a straight line. We are due for a pullback. I am not saying this will occur. I am only suggesting that a bit of caution is still very much warranted for the remainder of this week. Here's a look at a schedule of significant events that have or will yet occur and may cause volatility: Tuesday: • US CPI Data • Hinman Docs Become Public • SEC's Coinbase Rulemaking Response • Binance US Hearing Wednesday: • US PPI Data • FOMC Meeting Thursday: • US Jobless Claims • US Retail Sales Data Take care, Stew
U
by stewdamus
5
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
JPY RAISING OR DOLLAR HAVENJPY is in a technical correction and is reaching local support at 139.9. I think this FOMC meeting officials will skip the rate hike and project hawkish sentiment for the next meeting. Some other reasons for dollar strength have also subsided. A lot of this trade is dependent on the idea, that US inflation is going to be flat or lower then expected. This will be revealed when CPI reports. Nothing much has changed for the JPY, except for higher inflation than usual. BOJ probably will continue its fiscal policy as is. What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.
Short
by tsmarts
USDJPY: CPI and FOMC weekHey traders! Today, our focus is on USDJPY, where we are observing a potential buying opportunity around the 138.700 zone. USDJPY is currently in an uptrend and appears to be approaching a significant support and resistance area at 138.700. This week, we have two key events that could impact the market. First, on Wednesday, we have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be announced. However, the day before the FOMC meeting, we have the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is important to gauge the Fed's next move and intentions. If the CPI data shows high numbers, it may indicate the possibility of further rate hikes, signaling a bullish sentiment for the USD. However, if the CPI data comes in lower than expected, it could suggest that the Fed might delay rate hikes, potentially altering the previously anticipated long-term plan for the USD. Therefore, keeping an eye on the CPI data before the FOMC meeting is crucial to understand the potential impact on USDJPY and adjust our trading strategy accordingly. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
16
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be expecting to adapt our plan over the week as we were expecting the range and choppy price action to continue. We suggested sticking with the same plan and levels from the week prior which worked very well to give us the trades within the range. The short-term swing we were expecting for the move to the downside came in the later part of the week after we managed to take the long trade back up into range high giving us a short opportunity we wanted. So, we wanted to short down, then long up before shorting down, instead, we got the long up, short down and long up. A decent week on the markets again but a very frustrating range to have to deal with. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we can expect some more choppy and whipsawing price action during the first half due to FOMC being on Wednesday. We’re expecting them to want to clear the voids and grab liquidity from the highs and the lows, so for that reason we’re going to start by suggesting we continue to scalp the range for the first initial sessions while we assess the price action. We’re then going to be looking for the two key levels to hold price, either from above to go short, or, from below to go long. Key levels are the order region 50-55 with the break below taking us into 30-35 previous order region which are levels we would expect to see a reaction in price. Resistance levels now stand at 80-85 key level and above the institutional level 90-95 which price needs to remain below for this to continue with another decline. So, in summary, we have a potential range now forming between 40-45 support and the resistance levels of 80-85 with extension into 90-95 for the spike. Scalps in-between with KOG’s bias of the day and the levels with the view to take the longer position from the levels illustrated on the chart. Its going to be another difficult and frustrating week to navigate so please exercise patience in your trading, wait for the price to come to your levels, don’t force the trades just to be in the market. Always remember, cash is also a position in the market. We’re going to take it easy until FOMC, smaller lots and smaller captures before we hunt for the trade of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
23