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FOMC

Bitcoin~$15k or even lower soon!Hello Traders, Happy New Year, I hope we can see some positive movements in 2023, but the market disagrees. As you know already, FOMC minutes was just released today, and the result wasn't good, and Bitcoin rejected right at the resistance again. I expect to see new lows in the upcoming days/weeks. The fed still insists on the rate hikes policy in 2023, and we won't see cut rates this year. Please hit the boost button if you agree. Thanks, and don't forget to follow me for more updates. Trade safe.
Short
by ir0nhand
2
DXY Outlook 4th Jan 2023What a start to the year! The DXY woke from its Christmas/New Year slumber with significant volatility. With the price finding strong support at the 103.50 price area (failing to break lower) the DXY rebound strongly to the upside, to test the 105 price area. This strong climb was despite there being no major news event today. Hence could only be attributed to the "reopening" of markets and price action of the other major currencies as they broke out of the respective consolidations. The focus is now on the Fed Minutes (due on Thursday). Will the Feds slow down, as expected by the majority of the market? Or will the Feds continue along the current path? The DXY could continue to trade between the range of 103.50 and 105 in the lead-up to the release of the meeting minutes. However, if the price breaks above the 105 price level, the next immediate key resistance level is at 105.60.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
No doom, gloom or pivot. Just one aliens TA.An alien trader landed on earth and was given a chart of the combined** US indices (futures). Luckily, and not coincidentally, he knew TA. He had never heard of people like J.Powell and J.Cramer, or places like China, Ukraine and Russia. this is what he saw: Bullish: - Broke out 'above' the main diagonal trend (bullish) - Made a Higher High (bullish) - Note that, on a VERY high TF, the Bull market rides on and up (see "Higher Range Frame" box) Neutral - Has arrived at the key POC (neutral) and is sandwiched between zones of lower past volume (LVN's) - The 100MA/400MA was moving towards a "neutral cross" (the midpoint between the MA's is flat and not changing) Bearish In higher time/range frames the index has not made a new swing high. (see "Higher Range Frame" box) NOTES **There are multiple ways to merge ES, NQ and YM, as well as alternative indices like $NYA and Wilshire 5000. The *best* option depends on what it is used for (ex. a sphere is a good model of the earth for the astronomer, but not for the mountain climber). A simple average (ES + NQ + YM)/3 is ruled out because one point has a different value for each index. To address this, each index is weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms (For weights see www.barchart.com Alternative criterion for weighting include capitalization, number of stocks and beta weighting. [i Epilogue - After watching a TA channel on You Tube for 5 min. he departed abruptly pausing only to grab a clean towel. He is believed to be following in the dolphins footsteps.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by gb50k
2
EURGBP: I will look for Buys if a Reversal set-up comes.EURGBP Tech. Analysis: Elliott Wave & Harmonics. * Harmonics Pattern: Bullish Cypher * Elliott Wave Pattern: Running/Expanded Flat in (B) (red) * Supply Zone * Fibonacci Extension & Fibonacci Retracement: Confluence EURGBP Long: My Trade on the FED Press Conference (FOMC/FRED) * Entry @ 0.85100 * SL @ 0.81500 * TP @ 0.91985 This is a trial trade for a potential swing and add longs thing. Many pips ahead, Richard, the Wave Jedi.
Long
by Lionheart-EWA
9
Weekly / Intraday Analysis - (19 - 23 Dec 2022)At FOMC monetary policy last Thursday, Santa Powell threw a flash grenade at the market leaving everyone stunned and paralyzed. Fundamental wise, although the FED's minor shift in monetary policy reducing rate hikes to 50 BPS from 75 BPS, it is still considerably a stronger rate hike as compared to 25 BPS in terms of rate hikes as a whole. Accompanied with Santa Powell's firm speech on fighting inflation and reducing rate hikes to 2% which is floating at 4.5% as we speak, the FED still have a long and tough road ahead. KIV: Russia's rumor on selling OIL against GOLD WILL result in a rally on gold and demise of the dollar. If this news is to be proven true, GOLD may break ATH and double in value to USD 3600/ ounce even. On the technical standpoint, after every major rally/ dive in markets, we will have a pull back on gold and the dollar, as per seen gold has broken its bullish market structure from 1616 KL. Its highs printing at 1824 KL and LL at 1777 KL. What we want to be looking at will be gold forming LH and LL instead of breaking previous highs to signify a reversal towards 1616 KL taking price level by level. Will be giving a few scalps and intraday plays: Scalp Buys: - 1795 - 1808 KL - 1815 - 1824 KL Sells: - 1775 - 1768 KL Intra-day Sells: HRHR : 1822 KL MRMR: 1811 KL Safer: 1765 KL Buys: HRHR: 1795 KL MRMR: 1815 KL Safer: 1825 KL Range plays: HRHR sells: 1804 KL MRMR sells: 1795 KL
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SIRHANST
Using FOMC as trade confluence!TECHNICAL REASON: Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC FUNDAMENTAL REASON: It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't cracking, it's a little premature to think that tomorrow they're going to come in as dovish as the market is expecting. Powell doesn't even have to necessarily come in Hawkish tomorrow for these moves to reverse. As long as he is less dovish than the average joe on Wall Street is expecting, USD is likely to have a strong reversal upward. Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc. If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over. HOW TO TRADE FOMC I've taken partial profits in anticipation of getting "wicked out" and if this occurs, I will re-enter short around 1825 CROSS ASSET: Everyone seems to be booking profits right now (see chart). The question is whether they will add once they're doing taking profits, open shorts or wait for tomorrow to make up their mind. The next 2.5 hrs are very important. 1. USD is stabilizing within lower boundary of wedge pattern 2. Bond yields haven't broken the low and are holding 3. NASDAQ (most forward looking index) is pulling back from the highs
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
6
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain further control. Will Powell be dovish or Hawkish - The way I see it we get coin flip - Santa or the grinch. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
1
XAUUSD Short this coming weekHi traders, We had an awesome week with the volatily FOMC created on the markets, #XAUUSD/#Gold Closed below our daily trendline on thursday and failed to beat it on the retest on Friday. We now anticipate gold to plummet for the next few weeks to retest the neckline of the tripple bottom that was created a few months ago. We will wait for a confirmation then before we go long. For now we're selling. Discalimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
1
Hard to be bullish... SP500 🥶📉Taking a look at the Daily chart for the SP500. We can see a near perfect downward channel filled with dumps and scam pumps. Last week we saw a big rejection off of the 4100 resistance that we pumped up to back in September (yellow line). Then the subsequent FOMC rate hikes and CPI numbers pushed us lower. We'd expect to see a bit of a relief rally back up to the top of the channel, but at this point the move down looks basically locked in. A bottom of around 3200 would put us right in line with the 2020 crash levels. This remains our "bottom", at least in for now barring any crazy black swan event. Which is quite likely with the current geopolitical climate. We'll see how the rest of 2022 plays out. Eyes peeled. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
FOMC Rates Decision and the Effect on Gold**Repost from Dec 13th 2022 since the original post disappeared** Economic indicators from the past month indicate that the price of services is the key factor that helps prevent a rapid decline in inflation , although the price of goods had already dropped considerably and the labor market remained strong, showing no signs of slowing down the inflation rate. ECONOMICS:USCPMI In the graph above, one of the key economic indicators, the ISM Service Sector Index for the month of November, accelerated to 56.5, above the forecasted rate of 53.5 and the previous month's level of 54.4. Despite the rise in interest rates from the FED, the ISM indicated that the services sector is still going strong, correlating with the positive outcome in labor market data. FOMC Rates Decision 15 December 2022 Previous = 3.75-4.00% - Prediction from Bloomberg, OE, Forex Factory, Trading Economics = 4.25-4.50% Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, the Forex Factory, and Trading Economics predict that the Federal Reserve's interest rate will rise by 0.50%. The market forecast for the highest interest rate as of December 9, 2022 is 4.75-5.00% in May 2023, with a gradual decrease beginning in the third quarter of 2023. However, because the services sector has been performing well, the FED's interest rate cut may come later than expected by the market. Thus, from a fundamental standpoint, the USD is expected to continue appreciating, albeit not as strongly as in recent months. On the other hand, the gold price is expected to fall.
ECONOMICS:USNMPMIShort
by ChartTrail
I Smell a Santa Claus RallyWith inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering in his tone on inflation, but the last FOMC meeting was much softer. I expect that again with inflation ticking down as proof of low inflationary expectations. I mean, you can hear people freaking out about the economy everywhere. I don't think inflationary expectations are high lol. Listen to his last speech and you can hear a dramatic tone shift. Here's last FOMC Press Meeting After rate hike in mid November: www.brookings.edu HARD LANGUAGE Here's his "Inflation and the Labor Market" speech on 11/30: www.youtube.com SOFT LANGUAGE Long term? You'll have to look at my first post to see that. Enjoy, and you can find a link to an Economic Release calendar down below for you to save. InTheMoney
TVC:NDQLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
5
$SPX 3 Day Chart 2008 GFC Crash OverlayHistory never repeats but sometimes rhymes right? 2008 MBS bubble dropped the S&P 500 56% from the ATH, assuming we have an everything bubble after 6+ Trillion QE injection since 2020, I see similarities to the Great Financial Crises. Powell made it very clear yesterday, more hikes for longer if inflation is not brought down to 2% target so how will they ever pivot without dropping inflation quickly? Inflation YOY around 7% "according to CPI" assures corporate earnings collapse going forward IMO, so I think the market is over priced Early Pivot or no Pivot. Laszlo, MMGinvest 12/15/2022
SP:SPX
by Laszlo-MMG
4
Bitcoin and 10k all but guaranteed?Looking at the Weekly Bitcoin chart. We've mapped out a key level that Bitcoin shattered down through with the FTX news, but has since failed to reclaim and break back through. FTX collapse aside though, we can see that this 18K level is where Bitcoin skyrocketed past in late 2020. Thanks to Uncle Sam's stimulus checks of course... Over the coming weeks, this 18K level will be a strong indicator if we'll see more pain ahead. Bitcoin wasn't able to hold the 18K level it blasted past this week. The 10-12K range seems to be calling Bitcoin's name at this point. Combine that with CPI, the FOMC/FED and Powell's stances, the bearish sentiment has no reason to go away. Inflation came in lower (despite still being at 7.1%), but as Powell stated, they'll be continuing to hike until their targeted 2% level is achieved. We'll look for nice trade setups on the way up or down. As you should be too. Eyes peeled out there. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
Short
by QuantVue
1
6 Reasons why the gold price will drop with interest rate hikes The FOMC announced another 50bps (0.50%) Interest Rate increase to 4.50% which has lead to short term downside for gold as an initial reaction. The question for many remains. Why does gold drop when interest rates rise? There are a number of reasons, but here are the top 5… #1: Investors look elsewhere Higher interest rates can make other investments, such as fixed investment assets and bonds, more attractive to investors. Gold investors will then sell their gold holdings and take advantage of higher interest rate yielding assets. This can lead to investors moving their money out of gold, which can lead to a drop in price. #2: Stronger U.S Dollar A higher U.S dollar can lead to gold being more expensive for investors who use other currencies to buy it. This can lead to a drop in demand for gold, which brings the price lower. #3: Higher borrowing costs When interest rates rise, this increases the costs of borrowing for business and consumers. They now need to pay more to borrow money to fund their operations. This can hamper the economic activity and drop the demand for buying stocks, precious metals and other investments. #4: Higher yields on gold-mining companies bonds Fixed investment gold bonds may seem more attractive than holding and investing in gold itself. This leads to a drop in gold mining stocks which essentially helps with the drop in gold. #5: More supply less demand With the factors I mentioned above, with investors leaving gold this increases the supply of the metal and decreases the demand. This leads to a drop in the gold price. #6: Uncertainty floods the markets When interest rates go up, this leads to uncertainty in financial markets (where gold is no exception). Investors feel the uncertainty and become worried for the economy. This can lead to a decrease in demand for gold and a drop in its price. These are all speculations in theory with why the gold price may drop with an increase in interest rates. We notice that the markets don’t always play according… Since the May 2022 Gold has moved in a sideways consolidation pattern. And this means, we can see the price continue in the range. Until we actually see a break up or down, the analysis in the medium term is sideways. We’ll be watching this carefully. Follow for more trading and fundamentals tips and analyses from the info I've learnt over the last 20 years as a trader. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader Higher interest rates can also lead to higher yields on gold-mining companies' bonds, which can make these bonds more attractive to investors. This can lead to a decrease in demand for gold-mining stocks and a drop in the price of gold. Higher interest rates can also increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, as the metal does not generate any income or interest. This can make investors less likely to hold onto gold as a long-term investment. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, and higher interest rates can signal that the central bank is trying to keep inflation in check. This can reduce the perceived need for gold as a hedge and lead to a drop in its price.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by Timonrosso
1
Gold : Xauusd Potential LongWe have series of higher highs and higher lows. Trendline (technicals) and fundaments support growth in Gold price. Then question is why gold fell down after FOMC. Powell speech give clarification of interest rate almost peaked ( he hinted 5 % max , depending on circumstances). I think its correction phase. Big boys Don't let u win so easily. Trendline support is at 1790-1792 area. Below that strong support at 1780-1782. These support are potential buying areas. Upside potential is 1827-1850 Medium Term. Good luck and DO comment on the idea and odds
FX:XAUUSDLong
by decentshaw
XAUUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 15th December 2022Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for XAUUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my pullback buy limit entry at 1794.885, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1777.685, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 1824.515, where the recent swing high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rockqet