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FOMC

XAUUSD - KOG REPORT UPDATE:End of day update from us here at KOG: We wanted this to go a little lower before the bounce to the upside, however as you can see price reacted aggressively to the news and we went straight up into the KOG Report level we were expecting this week to be completed. It's a difficult market to trade and to be honest we're maintaining the defensive in Camelot so its reduced lots and observation. Now we would like to see this settle pre-event so expect a range above 1803 and be prepared for FOMC tomorrow. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
TSLA Major Confluence Long Signal!Going to keep this simple. We have a touch on the bottom of the descending parallelly channel, a major horizontal support line, and the golden pocket. This is a very bullish setup for TSLA to bounce. Stops should be placed below golden pock with the right position size and risk management to protect your account incase the bears manage to push the price through this major support. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by rnaofs
The dollar slowly perks up ahead of US CPI and FOMC meetingThe US dollar is trying to form a base following its false break of the August low. Whilst it saw a daily close beneath the key level on Friday 2nd December, a bullish engulfing candle formed the following day. Furthermore, a higher low formed on Friday with a Spinning top Doji and held above the August low, and momentum is pointing higher today. So if this week’s FOMC meeting is more hawkish than currently expected, these levels likely look appealing for bulls after its near-10% retracement. With that said, I suspect volatility will be lower ahead of this week’s US CPI report and FOMC meeting as traders may be wary to front-run these key events. - The bias is bullish above last week's low (although a more aggressive stop could be used beneath Friday's low) - Open upside target, given the market has retraced nearly 10% from its highs and the Fed have the potential to deliver a hawkish hike this week
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
DXY WEEKLY OUTLOOK DXY 2 scenerios for this coming week (very heavy with CPI and FOMC this week) 1) Looking for a continuation melt on the dollar index with a small bear flag on the hourly timeframe. With a break of structure I can see further downside on the dollar which would give rise in the equities market. 2) Looking at the dollar index to form a double top at 106.5 - 107 region for better risk to reward sells which means this will give equites, crypto a short-term downside move as we are currently experiencing now which can serve as manipulation or liquidity grabs to the downside for further upside later in the week or the coming weeks. Inflations Prints (CPI TUESDAY 9.30 PM SGT) As per seen from the prints of previous month, inflation is easing. We will be looking for Tuesday's print to be lower than that of previous month of 0.4% to signify a continuation of easing prints for the months ahead. If inflation were to print higher than 0.4%, we can safely gauge that the prints of previous month was a "One Trick-Pony". We will be looking at a continuation of bearish equities market / stocks / crypt and gold and dollar dominance. Inflation prints is in direct correlation to the FOMC monetary policy. If inflation is easing due to constant aggressive rate hikes, we can be looking at the FEDs to ease rate hikes accordingly as well. The market has been pricing in a Fed pivot Phase 1 and expecting rate hikes to be eased this month printing at 50 BPS. We will be looking at dollar weakness and bullishness across all global markets when this happens.
TVC:DXYShort
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report we said we didn’t have much confidence in the bullish move from the week before and were expecting a move to the downside. We suggested caution as there was a pattern that suggested a potential break of 1755 so we gave the resistance levels above and illustrated the 1806-10 region to look for a reaction in price and possible rejection. We wanted lower pricing and gave a reaction region of 1760-65 where we were hoping for a tap and bounce back to the upside. As you can see, it was a perfect point to point, LEVEL TO LEVEL move, resistance held, Excalibur confirmed, and we got the move into the support levels below with then another TAP AND BOUNCE back to where the price is now. A fantastic week in Camelot, not only on Gold with Excalibur hitting and completing numerous targets, but also Silver, US30, GJ and Oil to name a few. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to start again this week with suggesting caution on the markets! There is a lot of news this week that will cause volatility and choppy price action as well as potential extreme swings. Markets have been lining up for a big move for a few weeks so expect the unexpected in the coming weeks. For this week we have extended the range we identified in early November which you can see the price has been playing well in. We’ll again prefer to see this tap that high in the early sessions before a potential reaction in price to give us the opportunity to short back down into the support levels below. So the 1806-10 price region is again the key resistance level for price to stay below and for us to see any attempt at the bearish move we’re looking for. The path shows the support level of 1770-75 as the first key level we would like to see, we will of course be using Excalibur to guide us which will give us more clearer and precise levels to target. This level of 1770-75 is important support this week, price needs to stay above this to the resume the swing to the upside and any attempt to break and hold above 1800! Now, we have also highlighted a lower level for a potential swoop of liquidity which is sitting just below the 1750 price region, due to the news events this week these extreme levels are very much possible, so please be careful with your entries and be patient. We’re expecting ranging, whipsawing, choppy price action this week so your risk model is really important as well as your lot sizes. They’re going to be grabbing liquidity so spikes up and down are very likely. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
GBPUSD: How to read the fundamentals?GBPUSD is ahead of an important week of CPI meeting in Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. if inflation remains under control we can expect fed to slow down the rate hikes more likely 50 bps the coming week and 25 bps early next year which should trigger USD bears and that's what we expect as well based on the last CPI data. Otherwise if CPI is above expectations we can expect the opposite Scenario and more of a strong Dollar and a hawkish FOMC. when Good fundamentals meet good technicals then there is a good probability for your trade to go in your direction but always keep in mind that trading is a field of probabilities and since everything could happen a proper risk management should be taken in consideration. my recommendation is to risk 1% per trade so that will allow you to stay in the market the longest possible and will help you to compound your account as well. Otherwise if you risk 20% per trade then 5 losing trades in a row will knock you out of the market. And you don't want that to happen so you should stick to proper risk management of always risking small and aiming high. if you have any question please don't hesitate to ask in the comment section. i'm happy to interact and answer to all!
Long
by JoeChampion
40
$AUDUSD - Important data this week, be prepared. $AUDUSD - Get ready... Another week, another great opportunity for us traders to take advantage of. This week is a very important week: CPI, FOMC & PMIs. It was a difficult week, choppy action but that happens when we have important data this week. It's important to reserve your capital gains when market conditions are like this kangaroo or amber mode is way I describe it. Some are stating the CPI print will be more important than FOMC - I think it will be both very important as we go towards year end we still have plenty of trading opportunities and this week is a great week. We expect CPI to soften, 7.7% previous to 7.3% - If it comes in softer the rate hikes working, we expect 50 basis point for this meeting and the next and then we expect cuts - Now the market is forward looking we've seen risk play big part DXY declining cuts coming into play, easing less pressure dollar declines: we have Aussie, Gold and crypto escalate higher. What Powell will state will be very important in my humble opinion as we get to year end and positioning for portfolio management I have no set direction on yet to decide the movement for this week, we are within mid ranges of all assets - you could trade the data or wait and trade the after reaction. Regarding past data on Friday we had PPI: It came stronger than expected however we had minor dip in EUR we still went to rising back, now within the mid ranges. The dollar bears are still out there but will they get hurt this week? Only time will tell. Technically AUDUSD: We are within ranges a break to either direction, at this current moment of time we arent closing above 200ema if we are to close above bulls could gain further control up we go towards .70 areas easily - if not this rally fails and goes back towards .64 half areas All the best for this week, Trade Journal (FOLLOW YOUR OWN TRADE PLAN - NOT A SIGNAL PROVIDER)
by Trade_Journal
2
All Eyes On Fed Funds Rate 🏛Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting! I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments! As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) FEDFUNDS traded higher and broke the red wedge pattern upward. Now we are technically bullish, expecting big impulse movements to push price higher, and small bearish correction movements. We all know that Federal Reserve will most probably increase the interest rates by another 50 basis points (0.5%) next week (on Wednesday) By adding another 0.5% , FEDFUNDS will be approaching a strong resistance zone in blue (4.7% - 5.7%) which might hold the price down for a bearish correction to start and push price lower till the previous high in gray again. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this one. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by TheSignalyst
18
FOMC Meeting Next Week: Bank of America Expects 50bp Rate Hike The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, and investors are eagerly anticipating the outcome of the meeting. Bank of America Global Research has discussed its expectations for the meeting, saying that it expects the Fed to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 50bp in December to 4.25-4.5%. According to Bank of America, the Fed has telegraphed this move over the last few weeks through its communications. However, the more important question is where the Fed will go next. Bank of America expects the median forecast for 2023 to move up by 50bp to 5.125%, which is consistent with its terminal rate. The bank also expects the dot plot to show 100bp of cuts each in 2024 and 2025. In addition, Bank of America expects the macro projections in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) to be revised to show lower GDP growth and inflation than in September, and higher unemployment. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bank of America expects Chair Powell to push back against easing in financial conditions and remind investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate. The bank believes that Powell will stress that the Fed's job is far from done. Overall, Bank of America expects the FOMC meeting next week to be consistent with the Fed's previous communications and for there to be no major surprises or shifts in policy. Some Jargon Explained The Dot Plot The dot plot, also known as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a visual representation of Federal Reserve policymakers' individual forecasts for where they think key interest rates will be in the coming years. The dot plot shows the central tendency, or the middle of the range, of the individual forecasts for the federal funds rate. Each participant in the FOMC meeting provides their own individual forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year, as well as over the longer run. These forecasts are then plotted on a chart, with the dots representing the individual forecasts and the lines connecting the dots indicating the median of the group's forecasts. The dot plot is released four times per year, along with the FOMC's policy statement, and provides insight into the collective thinking of FOMC members about the future path of interest rates. It is an important tool for investors to gauge the future direction of monetary policy. The Terminal Rate The terminal rate, also known as the long-run federal funds rate or the equilibrium real interest rate, is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve believes is consistent with the long-run health of the economy. It represents the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and is expected to prevail in the long run, once the economy has reached its full employment and price stability goals. The terminal rate is not a fixed number, and can change over time depending on a variety of factors such as changes in the underlying productivity and demographic trends of the economy. The Federal Reserve uses the terminal rate as a reference point when setting its short-term interest rate targets. In general, the terminal rate is expected to be lower than the current federal funds rate, as the Fed typically raises interest rates in the short run to prevent the economy from overheating and then lowers them in the long run to support economic growth. This means that the terminal rate can provide important information about the future direction of monetary policy.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby