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FOMC

BTC Futures Rising Wedge Forming, confluence with newsI frequently chart the BTC CME Futures chart alongside a normal BTC Exchange chart. The difference between them is that CME is closed for the weekend and operated by a regulated group. This means the CME chart can frequently show different trends/patterns as it removed a lot of the noise, unnecessary wicks, etc that can come from exchanges trading over the weekend. I'm watching the early stages of this rising wedge forming. It's a bit early to call it a confirmed pattern still but worth putting on the radar. I often like to find confluence in charts aligning with news; I don't trade news but news is often a perfect catalyst for patterns to breakout. So what I have shown in the chart is a pattern that comes to an apex in about a week's time. And we have February right around the corner with a lot of news coming out, specifically the FOMC meeting minutes releasing on February 1st. This would be the perfect catalyst to create some volatility, quickly eliminate overleveraged longs and shorts, and then push for a pattern break of the rising wedge. Marking this idea as short as I am bearish overall and ready for a market reset, but note that this chart displays an idea where BTC gets one more push higher at the beginning of this week. Happy to answer any questions people have on this idea!
CME:BTC1!Short
by Obscure_Trading
AUDUSDAUDUSD - Interesting look It is very interesting range forming, we got pattern, we are at key resistance on higher time frame, within in a channel + TL but it's a waiting game on this and I think many take time it may break next week FOMC, I think that's when all FX majors will break out to either direction further. You can't predict what the FOMC are going to state, you can look at CME FedWatch Tool, which is useful but Powells commentary you can't predict that unfortunately... So what's the plan In-between now and then I trade within the ranges that would be lower time frames until this breaks either direction and then you got think to yourself 1. Is this a false break out either direction? 2. What made it break out was it more DXY move etc There are many other factors to take into consideration. That's where your OWN plan comes into execution. It's really important to not follow these marketing signal providers, trading gurus that try sell you expensive courses, they not worth it and various fancy indicators etc. There are many out there, but that's not what's going to make you successful in trading that's the reality but a trading plan of your own, that's when you're set for life! If it breaks below technically the 200 EMA is your target area and break above that psych level .7200 areas is target areas. A great trader once told me, "Don't make your PnL on a Friday". Have a great weekend, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
S&P 500 Looking For ConfirmationOn Monday, S&P 500 broke above the falling trendline and is currently looking for confirmation. On the weekly timeframe, we can see it nearing the Kaufmann Moving Average and the Ichimoku Cloud. Acceptance above this falling trendline on the daily chart and rising above the resistance level of 4014 can result in a move toward the next resistance level of the 4160 zone. If the index falls from here, the support level near the 3900 zone can be seen as an entry point for longs. Finally, with the FOMC meeting closing in, no major move should be expected this week and fluctuations can happen.
SP:SPXLong
by egegonulcan
TLT ShortTLT is approaching a technical double top area as the Feb. 1st FOMC meeting looms. Fed futures are currently pricing in a 475-500 bps terminal rate, however some fed speakers over the days have indicated a desire to exceed 500 bps this year. Market thus far hasn't bought that narrative and expects the Fed will be forced to pivot later this year due to recessionary headwinds. This pivot hopium has resulted in a rally in TLT. However, if the Fed raises rates to 50bps in February with 2 more rate hikes to go after that, Fed futures should spike above 5%. This will bring TLT crashing down to the 90-100 level. Even if the Fed only raises 25bps with 2 more rate hikes to go, a hawkish stance consistent with their recent comments about continuing rate increases should eat away at the Fed pivot hopium rally and still result in a drop of TLT to the 100 level. EIther way I don't see TLT continuing past 110 in the near term and this opens up a good short oppotunity.
CBOT:ZQU2023Short
by berzerker2020
EUR/USD -19/01/2023-• Daily EURO/DOLLAR chart, zooming out back to 2021, where the 1.5 year downtrend started • Short term, trend is bullish, higher highs higher lows • Rising wedge forming, a bearish reversal pattern • Resistance levels becoming support levels, a clear sign of an uptrend • However, looking at the big picture changes the outlook a little bit • Drew Fibonacci retracement levels 50% and 61.8% of the long term downtrend • 50% level is around 1.09 and 61.8% is around 1.1225 • Bulls are now fighting to break the 50% level, without success till now • Last area of defense for the bears is the 61.8% critical correction level • If 1.1225 level stays intact, the pair will resume the long term downtrend • Only if bulls manage to break the above level, we can safely say that the long term trend reversed and we are in a bullish market
0
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
6
Recession on the Horizon - FOMC and LayoffsYesterday, the FOMC confirmed the backing of higher interest rates for longer. The market reacted negatively signaling negative sentiment on rate expectations for the following quarters. Federal Reserve official, Neel Kashkari, who often has the most dovish views on market anticipation stated that inflation may have peaked but sees interest rates rising higher for the next few meetings. He sees the FED raising rates by a whole percentage point from the current level of 4.25%-4.5% to 5.4% (MarketWatch, Jan. 5). The inflation fight is not over yet, and it remains sticky despite all the economic weakening observed. In a previous thesis where I challenged the US economy about a year ago, I warn of massive layoffs in 2023 despite most analysts and the Fed saying otherwise. Meta and Tesla have already laid off thousands of employees just months ago. Today, large layoffs in tech are happening with Salesforce: “layoff about 10% of its employees, the company also says it will close some offices as part of its recruiting plan, but it is still unclear if any of the bay area offices will be impacted, undertaking major cost cuts in a challenging economy.” (CNBC, Jan. 5). Amazon Chief Executive Andy informed his employees that the number of layoffs in the company has now been increased to more than 18000 roles (ArabianBusiness, Jan. 5). Other firms are cost cutting, most cutting employee benefits. It is just a matter of when or not we are going to see higher unemployment rates in 2023. The most obvious fundamental reason for these layoffs and cost cuts is the fact that all these companies responded to the “bubble” fueled by stimulus and extensive quantitative easing. As a response, the Fed is raising interest higher, and tightening the monetary policy and we see the equity evaluation of these companies dropping significantly. Eventually, that demand is gone, and these companies are left with thousands of employees hired in response to a "fake" demand, over-hired. As equity evaluation is going down, they have to improve the margins by laying off employees and reducing expenses since revenue is going down. I see another reason for large layoffs, perhaps, a more IMPORTANT and IMMEDIATE aspect. Salesforce admitted business activities going down, demand slowing, and growth staggering, however, their stock went higher because they laid off employees, reducing their expenses. On paper, it shows higher margins, and thus, the stock reacted positively. What can become a norm during this economic environment is that we see more companies, especially in the tech industry which saw major lows, employing this technic by raising their stock prices with restructuring and engaging in mass layoffs. My plan of limiting my exposure to risks has not changed. I am holding a majority in cash and short-term government bonds. Looking to increase exposure to my trading in gold when the US 10-Year Real Rates falls from the inverse correlation between the two. Reminder: Higher real yields = expensive to hold gold when compared to other yielding investments such as fixed income, thus the inverse correlation on the charts. This is for personal recording but feel free to comment and argue.
NYSE:CRMShort
by ssavi
Bitcoin~$15k or even lower soon!Hello Traders, Happy New Year, I hope we can see some positive movements in 2023, but the market disagrees. As you know already, FOMC minutes was just released today, and the result wasn't good, and Bitcoin rejected right at the resistance again. I expect to see new lows in the upcoming days/weeks. The fed still insists on the rate hikes policy in 2023, and we won't see cut rates this year. Please hit the boost button if you agree. Thanks, and don't forget to follow me for more updates. Trade safe.
Short
by ir0nhand
2
DXY Outlook 4th Jan 2023What a start to the year! The DXY woke from its Christmas/New Year slumber with significant volatility. With the price finding strong support at the 103.50 price area (failing to break lower) the DXY rebound strongly to the upside, to test the 105 price area. This strong climb was despite there being no major news event today. Hence could only be attributed to the "reopening" of markets and price action of the other major currencies as they broke out of the respective consolidations. The focus is now on the Fed Minutes (due on Thursday). Will the Feds slow down, as expected by the majority of the market? Or will the Feds continue along the current path? The DXY could continue to trade between the range of 103.50 and 105 in the lead-up to the release of the meeting minutes. However, if the price breaks above the 105 price level, the next immediate key resistance level is at 105.60.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
No doom, gloom or pivot. Just one aliens TA.An alien trader landed on earth and was given a chart of the combined** US indices (futures). Luckily, and not coincidentally, he knew TA. He had never heard of people like J.Powell and J.Cramer, or places like China, Ukraine and Russia. this is what he saw: Bullish: - Broke out 'above' the main diagonal trend (bullish) - Made a Higher High (bullish) - Note that, on a VERY high TF, the Bull market rides on and up (see "Higher Range Frame" box) Neutral - Has arrived at the key POC (neutral) and is sandwiched between zones of lower past volume (LVN's) - The 100MA/400MA was moving towards a "neutral cross" (the midpoint between the MA's is flat and not changing) Bearish In higher time/range frames the index has not made a new swing high. (see "Higher Range Frame" box) NOTES **There are multiple ways to merge ES, NQ and YM, as well as alternative indices like $NYA and Wilshire 5000. The *best* option depends on what it is used for (ex. a sphere is a good model of the earth for the astronomer, but not for the mountain climber). A simple average (ES + NQ + YM)/3 is ruled out because one point has a different value for each index. To address this, each index is weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms (For weights see www.barchart.com Alternative criterion for weighting include capitalization, number of stocks and beta weighting. [i Epilogue - After watching a TA channel on You Tube for 5 min. he departed abruptly pausing only to grab a clean towel. He is believed to be following in the dolphins footsteps.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by gb50k
2
EURGBP: I will look for Buys if a Reversal set-up comes.EURGBP Tech. Analysis: Elliott Wave & Harmonics. * Harmonics Pattern: Bullish Cypher * Elliott Wave Pattern: Running/Expanded Flat in (B) (red) * Supply Zone * Fibonacci Extension & Fibonacci Retracement: Confluence EURGBP Long: My Trade on the FED Press Conference (FOMC/FRED) * Entry @ 0.85100 * SL @ 0.81500 * TP @ 0.91985 This is a trial trade for a potential swing and add longs thing. Many pips ahead, Richard, the Wave Jedi.
Long
by EW4X
9
Weekly / Intraday Analysis - (19 - 23 Dec 2022)At FOMC monetary policy last Thursday, Santa Powell threw a flash grenade at the market leaving everyone stunned and paralyzed. Fundamental wise, although the FED's minor shift in monetary policy reducing rate hikes to 50 BPS from 75 BPS, it is still considerably a stronger rate hike as compared to 25 BPS in terms of rate hikes as a whole. Accompanied with Santa Powell's firm speech on fighting inflation and reducing rate hikes to 2% which is floating at 4.5% as we speak, the FED still have a long and tough road ahead. KIV: Russia's rumor on selling OIL against GOLD WILL result in a rally on gold and demise of the dollar. If this news is to be proven true, GOLD may break ATH and double in value to USD 3600/ ounce even. On the technical standpoint, after every major rally/ dive in markets, we will have a pull back on gold and the dollar, as per seen gold has broken its bullish market structure from 1616 KL. Its highs printing at 1824 KL and LL at 1777 KL. What we want to be looking at will be gold forming LH and LL instead of breaking previous highs to signify a reversal towards 1616 KL taking price level by level. Will be giving a few scalps and intraday plays: Scalp Buys: - 1795 - 1808 KL - 1815 - 1824 KL Sells: - 1775 - 1768 KL Intra-day Sells: HRHR : 1822 KL MRMR: 1811 KL Safer: 1765 KL Buys: HRHR: 1795 KL MRMR: 1815 KL Safer: 1825 KL Range plays: HRHR sells: 1804 KL MRMR sells: 1795 KL
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SIRHANST
Using FOMC as trade confluence!TECHNICAL REASON: Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC FUNDAMENTAL REASON: It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't cracking, it's a little premature to think that tomorrow they're going to come in as dovish as the market is expecting. Powell doesn't even have to necessarily come in Hawkish tomorrow for these moves to reverse. As long as he is less dovish than the average joe on Wall Street is expecting, USD is likely to have a strong reversal upward. Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc. If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over. HOW TO TRADE FOMC I've taken partial profits in anticipation of getting "wicked out" and if this occurs, I will re-enter short around 1825 CROSS ASSET: Everyone seems to be booking profits right now (see chart). The question is whether they will add once they're doing taking profits, open shorts or wait for tomorrow to make up their mind. The next 2.5 hrs are very important. 1. USD is stabilizing within lower boundary of wedge pattern 2. Bond yields haven't broken the low and are holding 3. NASDAQ (most forward looking index) is pulling back from the highs
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
6
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain further control. Will Powell be dovish or Hawkish - The way I see it we get coin flip - Santa or the grinch. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
1
XAUUSD Short this coming weekHi traders, We had an awesome week with the volatily FOMC created on the markets, #XAUUSD/#Gold Closed below our daily trendline on thursday and failed to beat it on the retest on Friday. We now anticipate gold to plummet for the next few weeks to retest the neckline of the tripple bottom that was created a few months ago. We will wait for a confirmation then before we go long. For now we're selling. Discalimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
1