Get started

FOMC

Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets. Topics Covered: How Are Interest Rates Traded? Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself). █ How Are Interest Rates Traded? This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market. Key Strategy Concepts Backtested: Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism. Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth. Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons. █ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods. 2001-2009 Trade Result: 67.02% Holding Result: -31.19% 2019-2021 Trade Result: 19.28% Holding Result: 25.22% 1971-Present Trade Result: 444.13% Holding Result: 5694.12% █ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92% █ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54% █ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below. One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change. █ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself) Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open): The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
SP:SPXEducation
by TanHef
23/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,141.61 Last weeks low: $57,492.86 Midpoint: $60,817.24 Pattern continuation for Bitcoin from the week that came before last, steady and constant move up +11.55% from week low to high. The FOMC was the big talking point of the week, would the FED cut 25bps or 50bps, the answer was 50bps with a view to stay ahead of the curve. Making the rate of borrowing cheaper incentivises risk-on investment and so we have seen the start of that with the recent move up from the midpoint/ Having said that, typically when the week starts by swing failing the previous weeks high that often leads to a sell off week historically. This would go against the larger macro narrative that the market is turning back bullish after 6 months of chop. If anything this is the perfect test for Bitcoins resolve, if it overcomes a swing fail and continues a move up then the sentiment and macro outlook will be very positive going into Q4. $65,000 is still major resistance and should be the bullish target to flip this week. The altcoin market is starting to wake up, should BTC accumulate around the $65,000 area I'd like to see alts/TOTAL3 playing catch-up. If BTC flips the $65,000 with strength we are off to the races.
by ProR35
XAUUSD : Gold Will Fall to $2567 ? (Read The Caption)Upon revisiting the gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that last night, after gold surged to $2,600 and reached this key psychological level, it faced selling pressure and dropped to the important $2,550 level. If you recall, in previous analyses, we had mentioned this level as the final target for gold's corrective move. In the previous correction, gold had only managed to drop to $2,560. However, after taking out the liquidity above the previous high of $2,590 with the surge to $2,600, it finally reached this crucial $2,550 level. After hitting this level, gold made a strong recovery and surged back up to $2,595 to fill the liquidity gap caused by the drop. Currently, gold is trading around $2,586, and since it has created a new liquidity gap, I expect further correction from gold. The potential bearish targets for this correction are $2,581, $2,478, and $2,567, in that order. (This analysis will be updated). Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
32
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
12
My EURUSD Sells update after FOMC meeting !! - Who's holding ??EURUSD Weekly Outlook (19/09/2024): Slight Bearish Bias The EURUSD pair appears to be leaning towards a bearish bias this week, driven by several key macroeconomic factors and market dynamics. Let’s break down the main drivers shaping this outlook: 1. US Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets anticipating a potential reaffirmation of its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy. Recent commentary and data suggest that inflation is still a concern in the U.S., and the Fed remains vigilant in maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The hawkish outlook for US rates bolsters the USD, placing pressure on EURUSD. Expectations for future rate hikes or at least prolonged elevated rates support the dollar, as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe continues to widen in favor of the USD. 2. European Central Bank (ECB) Dovish Tilt Contrasting with the Fed, the ECB has shown signs of softening its hawkish tone. Last week, the ECB decided on what many view as a "dovish hike," raising rates but signaling that the peak of the hiking cycle may be near. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook is deteriorating, with concerns over a recession in key economies like Germany. This dovish stance is weighing on the euro, as markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes going forward. With interest rate differentials playing a crucial role in FX markets, this is a key bearish driver for EURUSD. 3. Eurozone Economic Weakness Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been disappointing. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish, and service sector growth has shown signs of stalling. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is particularly concerning, with its manufacturing PMI in contraction territory for months. Furthermore, rising energy costs could add pressure on European economies, potentially reigniting inflationary concerns but also hindering growth. This weaker growth outlook could deter investors from taking long positions in the euro. 4. US Economic Resilience On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Robust labor market figures, strong consumer spending, and better-than-expected GDP data indicate that the U.S. economy is outperforming the Eurozone. This contrast in economic performance provides further support for the USD. Moreover, the U.S. bond market continues to offer attractive yields relative to European bonds. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, are a key factor driving demand for the dollar. 5. Geopolitical Risks & Energy Concerns Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the war in Ukraine and ongoing disputes over energy supplies in Europe, pose an additional downside risk for the euro. While energy prices have stabilized in recent months, any renewed supply disruptions as Europe heads into the winter season could reignite concerns over inflation and economic stability in the region. If energy prices surge again, it could lead to further economic strain in the Eurozone, potentially pushing EURUSD lower. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently testing key support levels around 1.0650–1.0700. A sustained break below these levels could open the door for a move towards the 1.0500 region, especially if the dollar continues to strengthen on Fed-related optimism. On the upside, resistance lies near the 1.0800–1.0850 zone. Bulls would need to see a clear catalyst, such as dovish Fed signals or improved Eurozone data, to challenge these levels. Conclusion Given the hawkish Fed, dovish ECB, and weaker Eurozone economic data, EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish bias this week. Traders should keep an eye on key U.S. data releases and any unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment. My personal Key levels to watch: - Support: 1.0650, 1.0500 - Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0850
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re expecting some volatility this Session with the pending FOMC statement so for this report we’ll again look at the extreme levels. We’ve done well already this week, no need to risk anything trying to capture tops and bottoms, so keep an eye on the levels but remember, the trade comes after the event. The move started early in the week with the price hitting our resistance level and then making the move we wanted completing our first target. This has however left the completion of the move on the table, so we’ll stick with Sundays KOG Report idea for now, but expect a move to the upside potentially into that 2602-5 region and above that 2610! It’s 2610 as the extension that needs to reject the price in order for it make that move downside, as breaking above that will take us further into the 2625-30 region before any breather. So, as the chart shows, if we get 2602-5 and reject, we could see price move downside to clear the liquidity sitting first at 2550-55 and below that 2525-30. 2525-35 if visited, we feel would represent an opportunity to capture the swing low and then attempt to target that 2550-55 region as the first target. We’re going to play it safe this time and say if it works it works, if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. If you followed us this week, again we’ve done what we needed to for the week, everything else here is a bonus and should be treated with minimal risk on the markets, until they have settled. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
FOMC 25bps vs 50bps??The day has arrived!! Today is predicted to be the first rate cut by the FED since the COVID crash of March 2020! Two years after that in March 2022 the FED begun rate hikes in an attempt to stop the rising inflation. Now that inflation is close to the FEDs target of 2% it's time to stimulate the economy with cheaper borrowing. The big question is, 25bps or 50bps? Last week we saw the ECB (European central bank) cut their interest rates by 60bps from 4.25% to 3.65%, although this news has somewhat gone unnoticed, I'm not so sure the FED would have ignored it. If Europe has considerably cheaper borrowing rates than the US it could signal more growth to come from Europe and that would not be ideal for the US. Now this doesn't necessarily mean that Europe will be favoured by investors for long as this is only the beginning of rate cuts, Europe could taper off earlier or US could be more aggressive later on, we don't know for sure but I don't think America would want to fall behind. Prediction markets have shown the 50bps cut is growing in probability. Now at 61% chance for 50bps according to FED funds futures (At time of writing). 25bps is definitely priced in, but I don't think 50bps is priced in. This should see risk markets get a boost. In terms of TA, the 4H BTC chart looks ready to breakout, back above the 200EMA and 4H support. Flip the 4H resistance and $65,000 is the target. Be carful today with leverage as volatility will be crazy, plenty of whipsawing and generally the first move direction is wrong. Stay safe out there.
by ProR35
2
BTC Tests $61,000 Range Ahead of FOMC MeetingCurrent Market Activity: Bitcoin is currently testing the $61,000 top of its range support, a strong resistance level, just ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting. Key Levels: Range High Support/Resistance: $61,000 Lower Range Support: $57,000–$58,000 Next Major Resistance: $64,000–$67,000 Reversal Zone: $66,000–$68,000 (Required for upside shift) Potential Outcomes: Unfavorable FOMC News: BTC could test the $57,000–$58,000 support. Favorable FOMC News: A break through $61,000 may lead BTC to the next resistance at $64,000–$67,000. Trend Analysis: BTC continues to form lower highs, indicating a broader downtrend. A break and reclaim of the $66,000–$68,000 zone would suggest a potential reversal, but caution is necessary due to the volatility expected around the FOMC meeting. #Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #MarketAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #Crypto #Volatility #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
by Richtv_official
Pre FOMC Rates Decision Analysis18th September DXY: Consolidate around 100.90, (if 50bps cut) needs to break 100.60 to trade down to 100 round number support. (if 25bps cut) bounce from 100.60 to bearish trendline NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 75 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 25 TP 50 OR Sell 1.1110 SL 20 TP 50 (Straddle) USDJPY: Buy 142.80 SL 50 TP 150 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY weakness) Gold: Could range between 2570 and 2590, Looking for a test of 2600 and possible correction lower
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY Long - But Don't Long Too EarlyBased on the prior price action, people are desperate to finally see some green candles. Psychologic wise they might think "it can't get even lower, it needs to reverse now". However, especially USDJPY is one of those pairs who tend to be a brutal liquidity seeker. Based on the news events this week, I believe there is a nice chance that we see a bounce, but from lower levels people are anticipating right now. We need to shift sentiment and lurk them into the wrong direction before we can have that up movement.
Long
by Psytropy