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FOMC

USDJPY Long - But Don't Long Too EarlyBased on the prior price action, people are desperate to finally see some green candles. Psychologic wise they might think "it can't get even lower, it needs to reverse now". However, especially USDJPY is one of those pairs who tend to be a brutal liquidity seeker. Based on the news events this week, I believe there is a nice chance that we see a bounce, but from lower levels people are anticipating right now. We need to shift sentiment and lurk them into the wrong direction before we can have that up movement.
Long
by Entropie2020
EUR/USD Weekly Closing Remarks (2024/09/14)Weekly Closing Remarks for EUR/USD (Post-September 13, 2024): EUR/USD closed the week on Friday, September 13, 2024, at 1.1074, maintaining a bearish bias throughout the week. The market remained cautious ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision, set for Wednesday, September 18, 2024. The Ichimoku cloud continues to display a bearish structure, with price action remaining below the cloud across most significant timeframes. Both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are aligned in a bearish crossover, signaling continued downward pressure. ADX readings indicate a strong bearish trend, particularly on the daily and weekly timeframes, affirming the strength of the current downtrend. Attempts to rally during the week were short-lived, with resistance at 1.1100 - 1.1120 consistently capping price movements. MACD readings across all timeframes remain in negative territory, signaling that downward momentum is still strong. This week's key drivers included: Eurozone weakness: Ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone, particularly concerning inflation and growth, continued to weigh on the euro. FOMC expectations: The market is expecting a 25bps rate cut next week, keeping traders cautious and influencing USD strength, which pressured the euro further. Next Week’s Forecast (Week of September 16-20, 2024): The upcoming week will center around the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, September 18, 2024, with markets anticipating a 25bps rate cut. However, there are still uncertainties, with three potential outcomes: no rate cut, a 25bps cut (the most likely), or a 50bps cut. Importantly, there is no expectation of a rate hike. Each scenario will have significant implications for EUR/USD. Key Scenarios for Next Week: Scenario 1 - 25bps Rate Cut (Market Expectation): The most anticipated outcome is a 25bps rate cut. In this scenario, the euro could see a brief relief rally, testing the resistance zone around 1.1100 - 1.1120. However, given the strength of the bearish trend, any rallies are likely to be short-lived, and sellers will likely re-enter around these levels. If resistance holds, EUR/USD could continue its downward trajectory, targeting the key support levels of 1.1040 - 1.1050. A break below this level could see further declines toward 1.1000, a critical psychological support zone. Scenario 2 - No Rate Cut (Hawkish Surprise): Should the Fed decide to hold rates steady, this would come as a hawkish surprise to the market. In this case, the US dollar would strengthen considerably, exerting immediate downward pressure on EUR/USD. The pair would likely break below 1.1040, accelerating towards 1.1000. Should the downward momentum continue, the next target could be 1.0960 or lower, as the bearish trend strengthens further. Scenario 3 - 50bps Rate Cut (Dovish Shock): A 50bps rate cut would be a dovish surprise and would likely weaken the US dollar, allowing EUR/USD to stage a more significant rally. In this case, EUR/USD could break through the 1.1100 - 1.1120 resistance zone, potentially targeting 1.1170 - 1.1180. However, the overall bearish technical setup may limit further gains, especially if the euro remains fundamentally weak. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support The key support level is 1.1040 - 1.1050. A break below this level would signal further downside, with 1.1000 as the next psychological support. If bearish momentum accelerates, EUR/USD could test 1.0960. Resistance Resistance remains firm at 1.1100 - 1.1120. If EUR/USD manages to break through this zone, the next target would be 1.1170 - 1.1180, but this will require significant bullish momentum, which is unlikely without a dovish surprise from the Fed. Volatility Considerations: ATR (Average True Range) suggests that volatility is likely to increase next week, especially in the days leading up to and following the FOMC rate decision. Price movements could become more pronounced, particularly during and immediately after the announcement. Expect heightened volatility during the FOMC press conference as the market reacts to the Fed's forward guidance and any signals about future rate cuts. Closing Summary: EUR/USD is set for a potentially volatile week with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. The most likely outcome is a 25bps rate cut, which could trigger a short-term relief rally, but the overall bearish trend is expected to persist. If the Fed holds rates steady, expect further downside pressure, with EUR/USD likely breaking below 1.1040 and targeting 1.1000 or lower. In the unlikely event of a 50bps cut, the pair may rally towards 1.1170 - 1.1180, but upside gains would likely be capped due to the prevailing bearish sentiment. Traders should prepare for significant price fluctuations and manage risks carefully as we head into this crucial week.
Short
by williamwklee
BITCOIN could see a price @ 80,000 in the next couple of weeks. I know some have written-off Bitcoin at least in 2024. I never did because what you often see on Wall-street when banks and financial institutions have a bad day with their share price, its's the cryptocurrency sector that usually shines. Bitcoin has been helped along in its price by a head 'n' shoulders pattern on the daily chart & in the past couple of days has pushed higher in it's price considerably. At the moment 60,400. Bitcoin's 4 year in the making weekly-chart cup 'n' handle pattern is ready to pop, price now only 20% below the neckline. Now, if the US-Dollar breaks out next week as measured by the USDX-index, and I still have this compulsive urge that it will happen prior to FOMC next Thursday, after which the USD could seriously tank under $1 on an interest rate cut, well I believe that assets like Gold would initially sell-off on an interest rate reduction but I am not so sure about Cryptocurrency, in fact I think it could shine. Some are saying it's going to sell from here. I see 80,000 in a short space of time. * My own views and not to be taken as financial advice. At time of writing I have long positions in Bitcoin, ZRXUSD and DOGEUSD.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
FOMC Showdown Poised to Ignite a Surge in Yield SpreadsWith inflation finally cooling and the Fed signaling rate cuts, it seems relief is on the horizon—until you look at the job market. As recession risks grow and Treasury yields falter, a steepening yield curve presents a compelling opportunity. Positioning in the yield curve ahead of the FOMC meeting offers a more measured way to navigate the uncertainty. COOLING CPI SIGNALS GREEN LIGHT FOR RATE CUTS This week’s inflation report showed headline CPI cooling to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021. With this release, inflation has finally fallen decisively below the stubborn 3% mark and is now just 0.5% above the Fed’s target range. PCE inflation reflects similar levels, likely giving the Fed the signal to start cutting rates. JOB MARKET REPRESENTS MATERIAL RECESSION RISKS Recent job market data suggests it may be too soon to declare a soft landing. The labor market is significantly weakening, and with household savings dwindling and credit delinquencies increasing, conditions may worsen before improving. U.S. economic data from the past week indicates that the labor market is in a precarious situation. The August JOLTS report showed job openings dropping to their lowest since early 2021, reflecting decreased labor demand, while unemployment edged up slightly. Additionally, the August jobs report revealed a modest gain of 142,000 non-farm jobs, falling short of expectations, with downward revision for July bringing those figures down to just 89,000. As covered by Mint Finance previously a recession is likely to lead to a sharp steepening of the yield curve. We covered average levels of the yield spread at the start of recessions in detail previously, but in summary with the current 10Y-2Y spreads at 15 basis points, there may be up to 85 basis points of further upside in the spread. TREASURY YIELD PERFORMANCE Despite a short recovery following the ominous jobs report on 2/August, Treasury yields have continued to decline. Unsurprisingly, short-dated treasuries have underperformed as 2Y yields are 27 basis points lower, while 30Y yields have only declined by 12 basis points and 10Y by 15 basis points. Overlaying yield performance with economic releases, the largest impact on yields over the last few months has been from FOMC releases and non-farm payrolls while performance around CPI releases has been mixed. Potentially suggesting traders are more concerned about recession risk than moderating inflation. OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER FOMC MEETING Source: CME FedWatch FedWatch currently suggests that a 25 basis point rate cut is more likely in the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled on September 17/18. However, probabilities of a 50 basis point rate cut are also relatively high at 43%. Source: CME FedWatch While the odds of a 25 basis point cut have remained in majority, the 50 basis point cut has been uncertain with probability shifting over the past week. FOMC meetings have driven a rally in yield spreads over the past year. With FOMC meeting slated for next week, it is interesting to note that performance in yield spread prior to meetings has been more compelling than performance post-FOMC meeting. Over the last 5 meetings, pre-FOMC meetings, the 10Y-2Y spread has increased by 4 basis points. Performance is even more compelling in the 30Y-2Y spread which has increased by an average of 13 basis points. AUCTION DEMAND FAVORS 10Y Recent auction for 10Y treasuries indicated strong demand with a bid/cover ratio of 2.64, which is higher than the average over the last 10 auctions of 2.45. Contrastingly, the 30Y auction was less positive with a bid/cover ratio of 2.38, below the average of 2.42. 2Y auction was sharply weaker with a bid/cover of 2.65 compared to average of 2.94. Auction uptake suggests higher demand for 10Y treasuries than 30Y treasuries and fading demand for near-term 2Y treasuries. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Recent economic data has made an upcoming rate cut nearly certain. However, the size of the cut remains unclear. CME FedWatch currently indicates a 42% probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut, driven by the recent CPI report and weak jobs data. With rising recession risks, the Fed might opt for a larger rate cut. However, if they choose a moderate 25-basis-point cut, market sentiment could stabilize. Historically, yield spreads around FOMC meetings suggest that positioning before the meetings tends to be more advantageous than after. This is especially relevant now, as moderating sentiment from a 25-basis-point cut could trigger a temporary reversal in yield spreads. Considering the underperformance of the 10Y-2Y spread in September and increased auction demand for 10-year Treasuries, a long position in the 10Y-2Y spread may be the most favorable strategy for gaining exposure to the steepening yield curve. Investors can express views on the yield curve using CME Yield Futures through a long position in 10Y yield futures and a short position in 2Y yield futures. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This makes spread calculations trivial with a 1 basis point change in spread representing PnL of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of September 13, making this trade even more compelling. A hypothetical trade setup offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.46x is provided below: Entry: 14.2 basis points Target: 35 basis points Stop Loss: 0 basis point Profit at Target: USD 208 (20.8 basis points x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 142 (14.2 basis points x 10) Reward to Risk: 1.46x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by mintdotfinance
DIA $392 PT Sep '24 (Repost)Reposting my DIA $392 target price for September (my previous chart was too messy). It's been in a very consistent channel all of 2024. This means SPY should continue lower towards the $500 level through this week. We will need to see DIA hold the $392 level and SPY to stay above $500, which I think is very likely the case as we go into rate cuts 9/18. The rate cut on 9/18 will very likely add much needed boost to equities to go back to highs before a full on market crash.
AMEX:DIAShort
by ARX713
BTC Retracement to $30k levels. After US elections pump to $90k.Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframes. A potential drop to the $28k–$32k range could mirror the corrections seen in previous bull runs, creating a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern. A price target of $90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario. Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context. Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the $30k region could be highly bullish: 1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to $90k from $32k. 2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the GETTEX:29K –$30k range when BTC reaches that level. 3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at $27.7k, with the golden zone around $36.5k. 4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal. 5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately $37k. 6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run. In summary, a dip to around $28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above $30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto. Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal. I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Achilly
FOMC & 800K Fewer Jobs Dragging on Dollar The dollar is under pressure, with persistent selling pressure driving it to new yearly lows across several currencies, including the pound. A recent revision of jobs data revealed that U.S. job growth was significantly weaker than initially reported, with 818,000 fewer jobs added (for the year ending March 2024). This huge downward adjustment, the largest since 2009, indicates that the labor market cooled more rapidly than previously thought. These revised job figures could likely intensify concerns that the Federal Reserve has been too slow in lowering interest rates. At its July meeting, Federal Reserve officials considered the possibility of a rate cut but opted to hold off, hinting at a move in September. Markets are now pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency measures taken during the early days of the Covid crisis. Regarding the labor market, “many” officials noted that “reported payroll gains might be overstated,” which means that the Federal Reserve might be ahead of the rest of us, and exactly where it wants to be regarding timing the rate cuts.
by BlackBull_Markets
Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Crypto Markets Rattled Federal Reserve officials signaled the possibility of a September rate cut during their July meeting: But crypto prices pulled back after Iran pledged it would retaliate against Israel for assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. Donald Trump expressed strong support for cryptocurrency at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville: Trump pledged to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, stop the US from selling its bitcoin, and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler if he gets re-elected. Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick announced the firm's plan to establish a Bitcoin financing business with an initial $2 billion investment: The initiative aims to provide leverage to bitcoin investors and strengthen the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The nine US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $98.29 million in outflows on Monday, extending their negative flow streak: BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity FETH led the inflows, while Grayscale Ethereum Trust faced significant outflows. The SEC is looking to amend its complaint against Binance, which could delay a court ruling on the security status of specific tokens: This move involves third-party crypto asset securities and adheres to a court directive for further proceedings. Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Middle East Tensions Rattle Crypto Markets Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting on Wednesday opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5%, after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure, increased by only 0.1% in June. This brought the year-over-year rise to 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the first time hinted at the possibility of cutting rates in September, saying the move is “on the table” if the US continues to make progress on inflation. That would mark the first time the Fed has cut rates in four years. The announcement did not appear to have much impact on cryptocurrency prices. On Wednesday, hitcoin dropped about 2%, below $65,000, while ether dropped more than 1%, hovering above $3,200. The negative price action came after a New York Times report indicated that Iran will take retaliatory action against Israel after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. 🪙 Topic of the Week: What Are Stablecoins? ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
THE KOG REPORT - FOMC THE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. A great week so far on Gold with our targets completing and the path working out how we hoped. We’re now just above that order region we wanted attempting to break above, so for this report we’ll keep it simple. Price rejects above in the 2435-40 region, potential for this to pullback all the way into the 2400 region, unless broken. That lower region is where we would potentially be looking to buy in again. Price pushes down, we’ll be looking in that region for a move upside. We have immediate support below 2415 which could be tapped but needs to cross below, otherwise, we’re likely going to hover up here, spike and then make the move. Wouldn’t recommend trading the event, we’ve done our trading for the day. Best to wait for the move to finish and then look for the entry from a decent level. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Pre-FOMC Rates Decision Analysis31st July (FOMC Decision Pending) DXY: Ranging between 104.20 and 104.55. If Fed makes no comment on rate cut, DXY could push up to 105.20. If Fed makes comment on rate cuts in Sept, DXY could push down to 103.65. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5930 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6450 SL 25 TP 90 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 151.50 SL 70 TP 245 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength & BoE decision tomorrow) EURUSD: Sell 1.08 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8820 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3850 SL 20 TP 45 Gold: Needs to break 2425 to trade up to 2450 (DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
EUR/USD Key Levels: 1.075 - 1.081 - 1.066 General Overview: The EUR/USD pair has recently lost ground in a short-term bullish recovery, testing new two-week lows near the 1.0800 level, as the movement's momentum has drained out ahead of updates on EU GDP data. The latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday, with a new round of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) scheduled for Friday. Fundamental Analysis: The US Dollar (USD) started the week on a positive note, reversing consecutive daily gains in EUR/USD and testing three-day lows near the 1.0800 region. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) after the summer break have influenced market dynamics. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at the July 31 meeting, while the easing cycle is anticipated to begin in September. The ECB, according to recent comments from Vice President Luis de Guindos, may also cut rates in September. This policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB could lead to further weakening of the European currency in the medium term. Key Macroeconomic Data: Market participants will closely follow the release of preliminary Q2 GDP data from both Germany and the Eurozone, as well as advanced inflation data from Germany, scheduled for July 30. The preliminary Eurozone CPI report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Finally, key US macroeconomic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, will be crucial in determining the next moves for the EUR/USD pair. Technical Outlook: From a technical perspective, spot prices showed resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-July rally on Monday, although the lack of significant buying suggests caution for bulls. Oscillators on the daily chart are starting to gain negative traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is to the downside. Spot prices could weaken further below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near the 1.0775 region and test the next relevant support near the 1.0745 horizontal zone. This is closely followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci level near the 1.0730 area, below which EUR/USD could challenge the June monthly low, around the 1.0660 region, with some intermediate support near the psychological 1.0700 mark. Conversely, any subsequent move up is likely to confront resistance near the 1.0840-1.0845 region or the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Sustained strength beyond this could lift the EUR/USD pair above the 1.0865 horizontal barrier towards the 1.0885-1.0890 region. Continued buying beyond the 1.0900 level should allow bulls to aim back towards retesting the multi-month peak, around the mid-1.0900s.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD edges lower after soft retail sales reportThe British pound has slightly lower on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2922 in the North American session, down 0.17% on the day. The pound has sparkled in the month of July but has hit a snag, dropping 0.50% on Thursday and extending those losses today. UK retail sales suffered a turnaround in June, falling 1.2% m/m after a strong gain of 2.9% in May and below the market estimate of -0.4%. Annually, retail sales fell 0.2%; following a revised 1.7% gain in May and shy of the market estimate of a 0.2% rise. Fingers were pointing again at inclement weather, which kept shoppers away from the stores. A wet April was blamed for a weak retail sales report and the unseasonably cool weather in June, along with uncertainty prior to the July 4th election were blamed for a decrease in June retail sales. Consumers are showing a reluctance to spend, despite inflation falling to 2% and an increase in wages. Consumers have been squeezed by inflationary pressures and high interest rates and confidence in the economy has been weak. Still, the GfK consumer confidence index, released on Friday, ticked up to -13 for July, up a notch from -13 in June and its highest level since September 2021. In the US, the Fed is signaling that the central bank is moving closer to a historic rate cut. Earlier in the week, FOMC members Chris Waller and John Williams hinted at a rate cut in the coming months, although neither provided a specific date. Waller said that the higher-than-expected inflation in the first quarter of 2024 may have been an “aberration” and inflation was moving lower towards the 2% target. The markets have priced in a September cut at 90%, up from just 70% several weeks ago. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2915, followed by support at 1.2887 1.2969 and 1.2997  are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD – slightly lower as ECB holds interest ratesThe euro has edged lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0919, down 0.18% on the day. The euro hasn’t posted a losing day since July 9, gaining 1% during that period. The European Central Bank maintained its key lending rate at 3.75% at today’s meeting, after cutting rates by a quarter-point in June. The decision to hold rates was widely expected, especially after the June cut, and the euro has had a calm day. The markets are following ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, hoping for clues about future rate policy. The rate statement noted that “services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year”. The markets weren’t perturbed by this hawkish comment as the ECB has demonstrated that it is willing to lower rates even when inflation is above the 2% level, as it did in June. The markets have priced in two more quarter-point cuts in September and December. ECB policy makers have been cautious and the rate statement reiterated that the ECB was “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”. ECB officials have stressed that inflation remains high and wage growth, which is feeding services inflation, needs to come down in order for the ECB to feel confident in lowering rates further. In the US, Fedspeak will be in focus, with five public appearances from FOMC members before the week is over. Investors will be hoping to get some insights on Fed rate policy, with the markets widely expecting a rate cut in September. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0928. Below, there is support at 1.0907 1.0960 and 1.0981 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA