Get started

FOMC

Trading the FOMC MeetingTomorrow we have another FOMC meeting. In 2022 we've seen ~3% moves during and/or by end of next day (shown on chart). In my opinion (not financial investment advice)... There will be an initial move and then a rip in the opposite direction for a big move, as has happened in the past. As bearish the economy is and I am personally, we may hear pre-midterm political "pivot" talk to drive markets up for voters. That said, tomorrow we could see a fast move lower followed by a rip up to ~4100 to fill that gap you see in the chart. Whatever happens it will be extremely volatile. Keep your stops tight and/or entry's accurate. What you'll see on the chart is a gap indicator along with a market breadth indicator. We're finishing up these 2 free indicators and will be posting them for people to use very soon. Good luck trading!
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
3
XAUUSD : IT IS WHAT IT ISThe price reversed at 1,630 yesterday on the closing candle, without hitting my 1,620 TP. That is a strong bullish reversal on the 4H time-frame, which turned bullish again (RSI # 55.377, MACD # -0.490, ADX # 40.179) as the price broke above the 4H MA50 (1,648.70). Once again, the 4H MA200 (1,662.77) is the Resistance level to beat, which failed on Oct 26 - 27. A closing above it would be a buy call, targeting 1,675 on the short-term. I still have my sell open (TP # 1,620) but if the price drops back to the 4H MA50 again and see an attempt to rebound, I will close it immediately (4H MA50 is break-even) as I don't want to hold any positions coming into tomorrow's Fed Rate Decision. However if the price closes above the 1D MA50 (1,680 currently), I will buy again, targeting the 1D MA100 (now at 1,725.87 and dropping) but will move the SL on break-even just before the Fed tomorrow. As I've been mentioning for months, the main reason behind Gold's rise today is the very aggressive drop on the US10Y (bonds direct competing asset to Gold, both safe havends).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MolfDassler
BTC fighting the top of the GC Addition to my last $BTC analysis, $BTC is fighting the top of the GC on the daily. We can see that this has not been successfully defeated for a while. A break out above that and the 100 DSMA which converge at approx the same levels will be important if the bulls where to stand a chance. Reminder that these days Macro is king. Keep eyes on announcements coming out this week: Wednesday (tomorrow): FOMC rate announcement; +75 bps expected. lower would be extremely bullish. maintaining 75bps although already priced in will bolster $DXY and negatively affect markets. Also, #FOMC statement and language used will be carefully analyzed for tone. (hawkish vs a little dovish) Thursday: BOE rate announcement: likely worsening conditions there and in the EU Friday: US unemployment: counter-intuitively, lower unemployment will be bad for the markets.
Short
by BiloCrypto
USDTNGN - To drop to 630/$ then rise to 800, 900 & 950/$#Nigerian Naira Rate (Update) Day after day, the Nigerian currency is losing it’s value. Here is a weekly timeframe analysis. Based on technical analysis, Naira broke it’s major resistance at 630/$ to $710 and pullback is needed to gain momentum for the next run up. Therefore I expect a fall to 630/dollar before a rise to new price target at 800, 850, 900, 950 per dollar. Not a financial advice🙅🏼‍♂️ Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
UShort
by PetrockFxTrading
9
VERY Bearish momentum for 2 NOV after FED FOMCHi Everyone, why am i telling you this? this is the 3rd time FED will hiking the 75bps interest rate we have been through the 1st and 2nd one, the gold got much pressure after the hike interest rate announcement FED aiming 4,75 - 5,00 % for the 2022 , but it dont sure yet for the december hike , because they need to see the market reaction and the data that will release about the end of november until the middle of december but we can surely about more than 90% the fed will raise on 2 November 2022 about 75bps or maybe 100bps because they want to bring inflation down at least near the level (normally 1,25 -2,25 % inflation is great) if the inflation going down to at least 7,5% and the interest rates will become 4%, and then interest rates 5% at the end of december its very clear the FED will pivot to make sure they got softlanding probability it will start slowing down on Q1 2023. some news you can check it out: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com www.youtube.com the price will be very fluctuative / volatile , you should watch your risk management, dont risk more than 1%, there is chance to high then drop please watch 1722 level, and for me i can see the bottom is around 1532 -1564 . (please dont risk more than 1% in this trade) watch your risk management. Good Luck. i try to always we will keep you all updated . Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, i really appreciate you support ! Goodluck i'll help you to have a great trade. Please using good money management. dont take any emotional trade. Note: Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market Wish good luck for all people. Please help support me by Clicking like button, and if you like my ideas please follow me and support me. i Relly Appreciate it! i'll make more and more great analysis if this chanel grows. on Gold , Oil , Nasdaq, SP500 , and some American, China, Japan, Indonesia stocks. Best luck for you. Cheers mate! Thankyou.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LaurentWilvyne
3
GOLD TRADE IDEA 01 NOVEMBERGold following the plan so far. ever since the rejection from 1673-1675 area we are bearish bias, later also it has broken the red uptrend channel to the upside, so in higher time frame as well lower time frame we are bearish bias. later today we have ISM manufacturing PMI & JOLTS job opening at 7.30PM IST, we are expecting bad data today which may cause a short lived spike in gold. New month starts so be aware of monthly rebalance of flow moves with main focus being the FED interest rate decision. Until then, high possibility of Ranging/aggressive pullbacks to set up better price points. Stay adaptive. Trade setups for today, Looking for short on pullback to 1642-1644 level targeting 1625, Before FED interest rate decision announcement tomorrow , we might see some higher high in gold before aggressive selling to the down side, So if gold breaks out from 1644-1645 and then back test these level forming double bottom , this will be a long opportunity targeting 1675-1680, Any move below 1632-1633 is sell opportunity targeting 1615-1620, 1675-1680 zone still a big hurdle in higher time and out major resistance, we will be looking for sell entry after confirmation targeting - 1630-1635.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
EURUSD LONG: Trade Carefully As Sellers Might Ambush Anytime!With the markets pivoting in the FED's aggressive hiking cycle, there is a fear is the market that the DXY would take a temporary breathing room and consolidate further. But make no mistake! DXY is still in the uptrend as the US economy is showing resilience thus making FED less worried in their quest to tame the inflation by hiking interest rates. Even if the FED pivots by the end of year, the interest rate differentials between USD and other major currency is still going to be wide thus making USD more valuable. As said above, EURUSD is still on major sell trend, here according to technical picture there is a slight room for EURUSD to appreciate towards the 1.01250 area. Beyond this, we need further level break on technical level to assure that EURUSD would keep rising as it faces multiple stern resistance. Have a look at the main chart for all the technical aspects behind this trading idea. Trade Safe & Cautiously.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
10
The week ahead - DXY (31 October 2022)Towards the end of last week, the DXY showed some recovery as it bounced from the 109.50 price area to retest the 111.00 price level. However, the DXY retraced to 110.66 to end the trading week. This will be a big week for the DXY, with the release of the decision of the FOMC regarding the Funds Rate, Statement, and the accompanying press conference due on Thursday. Rather than the interest rate decision, focus more on the forward guidance regarding the path of future rate decisions and the FOMC's view of economic performance. If the DXY fails to trade above the 111 price level early in the week, the DXY is likely to continue to slide and retest the support area of 110 and 109.30. Recent weakness in the US economic data had provided some doubt as to whether the FOMC will persist with its current aggressive path of rate hikes, hence the slide in the DXY. The FOMC is forecasted to increase by 75bps, taking interest rates to 4.00% at the upcoming meeting. This decision is likely to have been priced in already. At the last meeting, the DXY traded higher from the 111 price level, which started the climb toward the high of 114.77. This time, look for the DXY to bounce from the support area possibly toward the 112 resistance level Following the rates decision, on Friday, we'll have the release of key employment data for the US, the Non-Farm (NFP) employment change. The forecast is for a 200k change, from the previous 263k, with the unemployment rate expected to increase slightly to 3.6%. Depending on the reaction from the FOMC news, the NFP news event is likely to have little impact unless there is a significant surprise in the data release. (Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
S&P500 Inverse Head and Shoulders measured move above 4,000Taking into consideration FOMC next week and the mid-term elections shortly after... I believe we will see 75bps added on interest rates and 50bps or even a " pause " in December, and this will bring a strong relief rallie on the markets, and especially risk-on assets like Bitcoin (late Q4) The FED doesn't have much more room to hide, and they will soon have to give some clarity about what's going to happen moving forward. The markets should carry on a short-term uptrend. Why? - Buying votes and the FED needs to take a decision. " Semi-pivot " perhaps... Keeping the markets happy at least for a moment. It always happens. For several weeks, Joe Biden has been buying votes left & right... The measured move from the still valid Inverse H&S brings the market exactly to the long term trendline. The 20th Congress of the CCP in China broke the Chinese stock market, such as the HSI, and we've seen stocks like NIO and AliBaba with a -25% in one single trading day. This is something i've warned about prior to the CCP event on October 16th. Moving forward i believe we will see stocks like TSL A @ $180 at least (next 3 months or so...) Still, i believe it is a great long term hold even if bought now. In the next 10 years or so, all cars shall be electric, and TESLA will carry on growing exponentially. Cathy Wood's ARKK is at this moment with almost exact pattern as the Dotcom Bubble in 2000 and -75% aswell. No one expects, but it does seem like a blow off top is brewing for the coming months. Elon Musk gave more hints . He's usually right and what he tweets ends up happening sooner or later. Definitely not something to ignore. All the best for everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by KryptoManiacool
USDCHF: Stubborn Franc Likely To Depreciate Vs The GreenbackNot a single major currency has been spared by the wrath of USD caused by the FED tightening. The franc being a safehaven currency has depreciated gradually against a super strong greenback. Looking at the all time monthly chart for USDCHF, it can be observed clearly that the swiss franc seems to be higher in value against the USD as the price remains at all time channel low. However with the FED being hawkish, the 1.0000 supply level/resistance was broken 2 weeks ago on weekly charts and now the price seems to aim for the upcoming supply zone located at 1.02000 area. Here both fundamental and technical picture point towards LONGING this pair. However before doing so, we require this pair to retrace slightly so as we can attain 1:1 RR. Have a look at the main chart for full details. Note: Trade is invalidated shall the take profit HIT first. Trade Cautiously & Safely. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY: Japan intervention is not enough to change major trend.Hey traders, as the monetary policy in the US remains aggressive we still see a possibility of continuation to the upsides on USDJPY unless fed becomes Dovish but it's still not going to happen as inflation in the US is still an issue and the main focus for the US is to control inflation, so what we can expect? more rate hikes, more USD bulls and potentially a continuation of USDJPY uptrend. hence in the coming week we will be monitoring USDJPY for a long term buying opportunity around 146 zone, remember to avoid using tight Stop losses in this type of environments since USDJPY movements will be more volatile and violent and respecting a proper risk management is always recommended so you avoid blowing your accounts, sticking to 1% risk with proper reward ratio will not allow allow the market to you knock you off. if you have any question don't hesitate to ask in the comment section.
Long
by JoeChampion
40
$BTC NEW Week Analysis : 10.17.22 Well, according to the previous analysis, the price finally started to fall from the range of $19,900 and showed a positive reaction when it reached $19,100. The reason for this reaction was the existence of Institutional Support in the range of $19,100 to $18,600! Now again, there's 2 important supply zones ahead the price ! $19,800 to $20,000 and $20,170 to $20,470 respectively! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 10.17.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
17