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FOMC

Retail Sales Dampen StocksStocks have slipped a bit from their week-long rally. Retail sales data confirmed the impact inflation is having on consumers, justifying the current Fed interest rate trajectory. The probability of another 75bps rate hike is above 50%. A retracement from highs was due, as higher highs were increasingly more labored. We gave up the 4300's, after making it as high as 4327. We then retraced the mid 4200's, currently just above our support level at 4245. If we retrace further, 4188 should surely provide support. The Kovach OBV appears to have topped off. Watch the open to see if more momentum comes through today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The British pound weakened on Wednesday as data showed inflation climbed to its highest level in more than four decades in July, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to bring down prices but increasing the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. FOMC – According to the Fed’s July minutes, officials saw “little evidence” that inflation pressures were easing and are beginning to brace themselves to force the economy to slow down control the ongoing surge in prices. Additionally, although the Fed never explicitly hinted at a particular pace of future rate hikes, the minutes imply that central bank policymakers are committed to raising rates as high as necessary to tame inflation. This is despite acknowledging the growing risk that they could eventually go too far and curb economic activity.
by thunderpips
1
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Gold has made a significant move from the 1800 region down to here now looking to target the 1750-55 region. We suggested earlier in the week that the 1775 level was important and a close below it would target the 1768 and below that 1760 price points. For FOMC we’re only looking again for the extreme or key levels to potentially take the trades rather than try to catch the move on the volume driven candles. That’s if this hasn’t been priced in already, in which case we’ll see another anti-climax FOMC like the ones we have witnessed recently. So, we have indications of the lower level being targeted and we also have a target above on Gold! The first level which would be ideal is that 1750-45 region, a rejection there with confirmed support would in our opinion represent an opportunity to go long with the targets being the higher resistance levels. We have a weak target around the 1780 region so this could be its destination. A move to the upside and we’re not interested in the lower resistance levels at the moment. They could represent opportunities to short, but we would suggest caution and say please make sure you have a reliable risk model in place. Breaking these levels to the upside will take this up to target that 1800 region again, potentially targeting at least 1806-10. This higher level is where we will be waiting to potentially short the market again to target the lower support levels. In summary: Above 1745-50 we’ll look long. Breaking that level and it’s a not go! Below 1806-10 we’re looking short, breaking that level is a no go. Levels to watch for reaction, 1775, 1785, 1795. Possible turns as illustrated on the chart taking this down then back up. Not something we want to get involved in. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
Stocks Open Near HighsStocks opened near highs as investors digest last week's data. We have retail sales and housing data this week, which may contribute to a clearer picture of the Fed's plan for their September meeting. Currently, the estimate seems to be a 50bps rate hike, followed by a potential softening in policy stance. The S&P 500 hit our target of 4272, and seems to be tapering slightly. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has started to level off. If we see resistance here, watch for support in the lower 4200's or 4188. If we are able to break out again, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now? This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning. We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES. Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on. TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
Monthly Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I hope you're doing well. On the monthly chart of Bitcoin and the analysis of its Accumulation/Distribution indicator, we can observe that the slope of the A/D line is showing some potential bottoming. Whenever the slope of EMA and SMA of the line turns positive, we can say the probability of the bitcoin bottom is very high. But all of this depends on the inflation rate of the US. If FOMC announces that the inflation is tamed and the rate goes down for the first time, a market switch could happen. Thanks for your time. Regards, Hashemi.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by rhawshemi
Softer Fed Outlook Fuels Stock RallyStocks have rallied, breaking through to higher levels. The markets seem to interpret recent economic data in a manner that suggests that the Fed is going to cool down their hawkish stance. Right now, a 50bps rate hike is expected for September (potentially the last one), whereas 75bps was not off the table before Wednesday's CPI. This was further supported by Producer Prices. Markets are considering this a green light to rally again. We have broken past 4245, but have fallen just short of our target of 4272. Resistance is confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up with the rally, but it does appear that momentum is stalling. We are due for a bit of a retracement, with 4188 a reasonable area to expect support. If the rally can continue then 4272 is the next target with 4293 and 4306 in line after that.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Range Ahead of CPIStocks have established highs, then immediately rejected them, and are continuing the sideways correction. We mentioned that 4178 and 4188 will be very hard to break, as they correspond to relative highs from a previous range held in June. We are seeing support from 4122, but we are on the precipice of a vacuum zone below to 4068. There is another vacuum zone below that to 4009. The Kovach OBV has leveled off so if nothing signficant happens, then we should maintain the current range. All eyes are on CPI today, which will provide a reading on the massive inflation we have been seeing as of late. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's plan to raise rates, potentially by 50bps at the September FOMC. Don't expect much action in stocks until at least 8:30AM EST, when the data is released.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Expectations for September's FOMCWhat do the markets care about this week? We have another CPI print on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated. We are in a period of nasty stagflation and the Fed is caught in a difficult position. They want to raise rates further, but the issue is that our cause of inflation seems to be on the supply chain side. Interest rates will do little to combat this. The NFP numbers Friday were pretty strong, so their case is strengthened to raise by at least 50bps in September, at the next FOMC. It will be almost a certainty if CPI comes in hot. Note that GDP came in contractionary for two quarters in a row, which is the definition most use for a recession. This stands somewhat at odds with the strong NFP numbers, which could be a seasonal fluke. If the data continues to indicate that we are in a recession, the Fed will eventually be forced to lower rates again. The markets seem to be weighing this reality before rallying with conviction.
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by quantguy
2
DXY: will we have more fresh highs?Hey traders, Above is a technical overview on DXY and the most important zone to watch, i highly recommend to take a look at DXY at the beginning of every trading week if not everyday, that will help you to Spot the direction of USD pairs and allow you to trade them in a more professional way. in the coming week we are monitoring USD INDEX for buying opportunity around 106.4 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
16
What Today's Employment Data Means for Stocks and the FedNon Farm Payrolls introduced some volatility in stocks. The numbers came in hot, with a headline beat and unemployment at 3.5% . The S&P 500 had already edged higher, reaching our target of 4178, and establishing value between 4144 and 4178. The NFP data release introduced some volatility, with a small selloff extending past 4122 into the vacuum zone down to 4068. It appears the figures were priced in already, and stocks may be correcting because of that. Also, the strong numbers give the Fed more justification to hike rates in September. If stocks fall further watch for support at 4068, but be mindful of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold RetracesGold edged higher, breaking out of the 0.618 Fibonacci level at about $1800. However, we encountered resistance at the next technical level above, at $1815. Immediately, we saw the price action round off and retrace back to safety in the $1790's. We anticipate gold to establish value between $1780 and $1800 (two significant Fibonacci levels), unless more momentum can come through and help solidify the $1800's. The Kovach OBV is wavering, which suggests we do not quite have enough momentum yet to sustain a breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Set to Hit 17k - August 2022Hi Bitcoin Lovers, What are my reasons for using such a bogus title? 1. Bearish forces have aligned and confirmed on D1 TF which will first of all drive price to 21224 level, retest 22735 zone and drive through 20777, 18934 and possibly 17125 area. Strategy Applied: Bearish Force 2. Exception:- If we fail to hit 20777 level, price should shoot up to 28541 / 32000 zone within the month. Strategy Applied: Wick Fill Let me know what you think in the comment section. Join me today during live GER30/EURUSD trading session here on TradingView (13:00 GST) and ask me your questions on my trading strategies. See you!!! Yours, Kings
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Kingsley_lotanna
XAUUSD Long We saw XAUUSD making a New low at 1781. We also saw price rebound from 1785 then afterwards 1781. Price make a breakout of downward channel on announcement of interest rates hike from ECB. I think intent is very clear. Now Gold is betting on the FOMC interest rates announcement on 26-27 July. I believes all the odds are priced in. We may see price increase after the FOMC. 75 BPS priced in and more likely. 100 BPs to me is unlikely as recession sounds looming in. Price will go up on 75 BPS announcement. Chart says everything. I believe strategy should be buying on dips with good money management. Good luck and Regards, Share your comments on the idea and what are the odds do share.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by decentshaw
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy