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FOMC

EURUSD - Be careful for this week! ☼EURUSD - Be careful for this week! Hey no week ahead video this week. However, pay special attention this week we have ECB now imo it's the fact if they Hike, if they do you'll see bullish short term momentum towards upside. However, the amount doesn't matter because even if they do hike, most of EU countries are suffering when it comes to data front and of course inflationary factors which is global struggle but to mix it up a little the cherry on the top for the EU is Nord stream, its suppose to be turned back on this week and now if it doesn't and we get no rate hike expect the euro to weaken further, re-test areas of 2002-2000 areas go towards LT for that. Now that's this week review on what could happen to EUR and lastly PMIs. However, I'm not done yet - we have FOMC when that day comes CPI high the consumer sentiment high, the data front is bullish as well as retail sales it isn't bad data allowing FEDs having further room they could hike rates further, and of course we all know 75 basis point yes euro declines etc precious metals struggle you get the picture right but there was a moment of the market pricing in 100! Personally, I think yeah sure they could I think it's a little overboard but would be interesting as we have BOC do a nice surprise of that and that was brilliant price action. Now, I get it if they hike do not forget to look at EM currencies etc. There so many pairs including pairs like EURMXN, EURCAD & many others that have great opportunities. I personally won't be around to trade this week but I will be keeping an eye on the market. ☼ Have a great week ahead and trade safe! ☼ TJ
by Trade_Journal
Australian dollar rises, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar has started the trading week with strong gains, extending the upswing from Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6835, up 0.62% on the day. Market risk sentiment has strengthened, courtesy of better-than-expected data out of the US on Friday. Headline retail sales and core retail sales both posted a gain of 1.0% MoM in June, above the forecast and an improvement from the May numbers. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment improved slightly to 51.0, above the consensus for a contraction at 49.0. This has boosted the Australian dollar, a bellwether of risk appetite. The financial markets were pleased with US retail sales, which points to consumers' willing to spend despite the bite that higher inflation is taking out of disposable incomes. At the same time, strong consumer spending paves the way for a massive 100bp hike from the Federal Reserve next week, as strong US data indicates that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. There is a pre-meeting blackout of the FOMC ahead of next Thursday's meeting, but we can still expect plenty of discussion about whether the Fed will deliver a 75 bp or 100 bp increase. The more likely scenario is a 75bp move, but the Fed has surprised before, and a 100bp move is certainly on the table. The RBA is also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, but the cash rate is only at 1.35%, which won't make a significant dent on surging inflation. The central bank is likely to continue tightening throughout the remainder of 2022. The minutes from the July meeting will be released on Tuesday, and investors will be looking for clues as to how aggressive the RBA plans to be as it tries to balance hiking rates without choking economic activity and causing a recession. There is resistance at 0.6871 and 0.6949 0.6776 is providing support, followed by 0.6698
by OANDA
BTC - What about after the Dump?I've been doing a lot of number crunching, specifically around Fibonacci numbers and Harmonics. There is a possibility we get a Bullish crab at 16.3k with a retracement to 18,700-19,400. I will be Shorting this area after TP'ing Short at 16.3k. The next target to close FOMC pump Short would be between 15.5k-15k. Not sure which. But i'm certain it's one of these two. The less likely scenario if these are broken is 13k . But that is less likely. I think a lot of people are expecting really low (I see people shouting 10k in chat) and they aren't expecting a local bottom at 15k. As is always we get some kind of Relief Rally after FOMC event has happened. I assume this will be the push towards the mid 19's. I am ready to SHORT this area - it will be fairly simple! All I have to do is wait until volume dies after FOMC pump. Take Profit target 15.5k. The final trade in this next 3 weeks will be LONG 15.5k and 15k, with a take Profit target of around 22k. The reason why it will dump again after FOMC rally... is it because it always does! It happened last time.. it dumped 32k-> 20k then rallied to 22.5k then dropped to 17.6k. Good luck!
by reiiss7
5
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% DXY, 25% Cash. *Demand for USD continues as global recessionary fears amplify and tighter monetary policy pushes investors to short term Treasuries (Yield Curve inversion). The Euro is maintaining parity with the USD for the third consecutive day as Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi submitted an offer to resign today . Interestingly, as DXY continues pushing higher to reach levels last seen in 2002 (taking liquidity from Cryptos, Equities and Commodities), markets are currently reacting favorably to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks today about how the markets are "getting a bit ahead of themselves" regarding inflation and that the job market is healthy enough to continue economic expansion. Waller also mentioned that though 75bps is all but guaranteed, he is waiting on June retail sales data ( scheduled for release tomorrow 07/14/2022 at 830am EST ) and housing starts/building permit data ( scheduled for release 07/19/22 at 830am EST ) to determine if demand is still so high that it warrants a full 100bps or more rate hike on 07/27/22. DXY has only traded above $108 in three other periods: 1967-1973 (two recessions 69-70 and 73-75, Nixon "nixed" the Bretton Woods Agreement and Gold Standard in attempt to stimulate the economy and ring in inflation, the third and fourth Arab/Israeli wars, 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash); 1981-1986 (one recession 81-82 after short rate-hike induced recession in 1980, Cold War fears pushed investors to DXY as Russia tested nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Iranian Revolution prompted 1979 energy crisis, Fed tightened monetary policy to bring down inflation, stock market only crashed 81-82 and rallied from 83-87); and the only period where CPI was relatively low (below 3.67%) and DXY was above 108 was 2000-2002 (short recession in 2001, Y2K, Dot-Com bubble popped, 9/11). That said, history shows that financial markets mostly tumble and the economy enters a recession as DXY rallies above 108; using this pattern one can surmise that if DXY continues to rip higher, markets may go lower.* Price is currently trending up at $108.63 as it technically tests $108 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $106.20, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 76 after bouncing at 73, the next resistance is at 82. Stochastic is currently in the process of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at 97 in the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.25 as it tests 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation; the next support is at 0.64 and resistance at 1.92. ADX is currently trending up at 42 with no signs of peak formation as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $108 then the next likely target is a retest of $115 resistance for the first time since February 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $108 and breaks down, the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA at around $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 69% SPX, 31% Cash. * The US Jobs Report came out this morning and 372,000 jobs were added in June which essentially recovers almost all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic (~23m) , the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. A technical recession is defined by the combination of declining economic growth and employment ; so according to the textbook we are not yet in one because unemployment is still low and credit is still relatively healthy(?). How reliable the employment data is and how effective the models used to analyze them are arguable but as it stands now, the growing number of layoffs hasn't hit the job market yet. Even though they are both connected, markets seem to have shifted their focus from inflation to Q2 corporate earnings as a means of determining how much of an economic slowdown we are to expect (which would determine if we end 2022 with a federal funds rate above 3.5% - it is currently at 1.58%). Russia continues to avoid Western sanctions and boost their Ruble by fortifying trade routes with Brazil, China, India and South Africa (amongst other countries); Donetsk and Severodonetsk are the last two major Ukrainian strongholds defending against a total annexation of the Donbas region (Southeastern oblasts) - and Russia likely won't stop there; and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated today at the G20 Summit (before storming out) that increased sanctions are viewed as declarations of economic war.* Price is currently pushing higher at ~$3900 as it approaches the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fifth consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3714, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 52 as it tests 52.68 resistance with a soft peak beginning to form. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 98 as it approaches a test of max top where it can potentially coast in the "bullish autobahn zone" for some time. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 resistance, this is a critical resistance area. ADX continues trending down at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX bounces as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely face a bit more resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3815.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% Cash. *The Head and Shoulders formation is currently completing as the 50 MA crosses under the 200 MA (Death Cross). Gold, Oil, USD, Treasuries, Crypto and Equities are all either up or flat; this is indicative of a broader reversal in market sentiment regarding recessionary fears. Both Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said they expect a 75bps rate hike in July followed by at least 50bps in September and then potentially 25bps thereafter because financial markets and the economy are both responding to the rates hikes appropriately thus far; they also both suggested that recession fears are overblown, which prompted almost all markets to rally. Considering that the Fed largely operates off of lagging data, it would be prudent to assume that inflation may not have peaked quite yet; that said, it's advised to continue to be vigilant as the bottom continues to be found.* Price is currently completing a H&S breakdown and is testing $1742 minor support after also breaking down out of the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1800). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1800, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 28 while testing 27 support; the next resistance is the uptrend line from April 2013 at 36. Stochastic is currently resisting a test of max bottom as it crosses over bullish at 25. MACD broke down below -11 support and is currently trending down at -25 with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at -39. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to break down, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here at $1742 and continue up, it will likely test $1784 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $1684 major support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1748.
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by dailytaguy
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. What a great time we’re having on Gold at the moment with the moves playing out nearly to perfection into all our levels. We’ve done well on this and we’re not interested in giving anything back so we will wait for the levels shown to give us strong support or resistance before we attempt to take a trade, even then it will be with a small lot and a tight stop in place. Please don’t mess around with Gold when its like this, if you’re in the wrong way Gold can really cause you sleepless nights! So, moving forward we’re going to trade this with two scenarios in mind, looking at only the highs and the lows of the present range. Scenario 1: We have a target below which is sitting around 1720, this is also the weekly support level so potentially this can be a short term stop on the selling pressure we’re witnessing. If price spikes into that level during FOMC or in the coming sessions we feel an opportunity to long the market exists. We’re not looking for huge captures, simply the 1775 and 1785 levels initially. After this, take partials, stop to entry and let it run. Breaking the level to the downside and you can see what's next!! Scenario 2: They push the price up, the first level we’re looking for is 1775 and above that 1785-90. If we see resistance there we feel an opportunity to short the market back down in to the 1750 and below that 1735 and 1720 levels could be on the cards. Breaking above the 1795 level and holding above it then its likely we will see this go a little higher before then attempting to come back down It’s a dangerous market to trade and its not for the faint hearted. Please be sensible and don’t try to get rich quick, it won’t happen! Have a risk model in place and make sure your lots sizes are in accordance with your account size. Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
US30 Intra-Week Analysis July 6th 2022Last week on us30 we got that bearish closure below 31400 and with that we expected price to clear that range to test 31000. We continued to break below 31k and drop all the way to 30500 creating a double bottom to end the week back at 31k. The reason for this aggressive bearish move was the market pricing in the Federal Reserve announcing their 0.75bps rate hike decision to combat inflation. This week we began slightly bullish before dropping to retest the 30500 key level for a third time. As price is sitting in a key demand zone if get a bearish closure below 30800 we can expect price to continue to 30500 otherwise buys above 31k to test 31400. The FOMC meeting today will likely give us a breakout in either direction based on what is discussed, more hawkish news will lead to a drop on equities.
U
by Itskaleel
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * Core PCE Price Index came out today (at 830am not 1230pm like I had incorrectly posted in previous TA's) and was lower than forecasted at 4.7% vs 4.8% and .2% lower than last month's reading (4.9%), this is reflective of the Fed conducting QT + rate hikes and all but confirms that the Fed will raise another 75bps on July 27th. CPI is due to be reported at 830am (EST) on 07/13 and will provide additional guidance to markets regarding how effective the Fed's tightening and hawkishness is and whether they need to be more or less aggressive heading into the end of the year. Aside from a few stocks, everything is down; Gold, USD, energy, crypto, equities and treasuries are all down. Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman (and former President) Dmitry Medvedev today reiterated that increased Western sanctions against Russia can qualify as international acts of aggression that can justify war . NATO is continuing to expand with the addition of Finland and Sweden and have agreed to modernized Ukraine's military + bolster NATO presence on the Eastern Flank. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated today that a new Iron Curtain is currently being built and that Russia vows to remove dependence on the EU in all critical sectors . It has become quite apparent that this NWO is here to stay but not quite as clear as to whether or not it will prompt WW3. While all this is going on, China vows to "smash to smithereens" any Taiwanese efforts to gain independence and has reiterated their warning for any collusion with the US . China also continues to aggressively assert ownership of the South China Sea which is home to $3 trillion of trade transit yearly (and shared by Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore) and East China Sea which is home to numerous natural gas fields (and shared by Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan). Though it seems that markets have priced in a continuation of QT and rate hikes, there are numerous bearish catalysts lurking in the background that make the market sentiment lean bearish at the moment.* Price is currently trending down at $3800 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3950) as resistance. Volume is currently Low and on track to break a three day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3670, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43, the next support is at 38. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 65 after being rejected by 76 resistance, the next support is at 48. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -67 as it attempts to reestablish support at -76 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price begins to fall again, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX starts trending up as Price continues down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3950 . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially going lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3900.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash. *As feared earlier this month, 3AC defaulted on a ~$660 million loan from crypto lender Voyager Digital that was collateralized by staking ETH. 3AC was also exposed to Luna/UST which probably triggered this insolvency crisis. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler also stated today that Bitcoin is probably the only crypto he would consider a commodity . Important dates to watch out for: Q1 GDP (3rd Estimate) due 8:30am (EST) 06/29 and Core PCE Price Index due 12:30pm (EST) 06/30.* Price is currently attempting to push higher at $20800 in order to test $24180 minor resistance but risks forming a bear flag before it gets there. Volume remains Low and appears to have broken the ten day session streak of shrinkage without breakout or breakdown (still premature to say); it is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18075, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 34; the next support is at 25.60 and next resistance is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently beginning to form a peak at 93.50 where it may crossover bearish in the "bullish autobahn zone" (when Stochastic coasts at these levels it usually implies that a continuation rally is underway). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -2245 with no sign of peak formation as it attempts to confirm -2497 as support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 45 as Price continues to attempt to breakout of the $20k level, this neutral at the moment; in the event ADX begins to trend down as Price goes up, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will have $19417 support as the last defense before potentially testing the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% Gold, 90% Cash. **H&S WATCH. DEATH CROSS WATCH.** *USD is down a bit while energy, commodities, equities, cryptos are up and gold is relatively flat. The relief rally is primarily benefiting risk on markets as money begins to enter it from risk off markets (like gold and bonds); this is still just a technical relief rally that was precipitated by very oversold daily and weekly conditions, the Core PCE report due next Thursday (06/30) should give a clearer picture of what the Fed will do on 07/27/22 and therefore guide the markets in the near term.* Price is currently completing a H&S pattern and trending down at $1827 as it prepares to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1815) as support for the second time since 06/15/22. The 50 MA is currently trending down at $1860 as it quickly approaches the 200 MA at $1845 where it would technically form a Death Cross. Volume remains Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (which is indicative of consolidation before a next move). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($1860), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45 after bouncing off of 42 support for the third time in a month, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 43 as it is still technically testing 53.13 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -8 as it hovers above -10.84 support. ADX is currently trending down at 10 (with little sign of trough formation) as Price is trending down as well, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to bottom and begin trending up as Price continued down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here and resist a H&S AND Death Cross then it will likely retest the 200 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting $1867 minor resistance. However, if Price continues down here, it will likely formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1815 as support before potentially falling to retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $1783 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1844.
G
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% ETH, 35% Cash. *Cryptos and equities continue rallying and will hope to carry on this momentum through the weekend and into next week leading up to the Core PCE inflation report due next Thursday (06/30/22). Which should tell us whether or not the Fed is going to raise FFR by 75bp (or more) on 07/27/22.* Price is currently trending up at $1206 as it gets closer to testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300 as resistance. Volume is currently Moderate (low), looking to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the green and is on track to shrink for a sixth consecutive session (which indicates that a breakout or breakdown is likely impending). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $896, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 38 as it attempts to flip 36.91 resistance to support after bouncing off the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 26; this is bullish. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 80.69 resistance with no sign of peak formation. MACD crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at -211 as it quickly approaches a test of -197.34 resistance (after breaking below it on 06/14/22). ADX is currently trending down at 51.51 (after forming a soft peak at 53) as Price continues pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up then it will likely face some resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300; if it breaks and closes above ~$1300 then it will likely test $1426 resistance, whereas a rejection at ~$1300 may take it down to $775 support. However, if Price breaks down here and falls below $1k, it will likely fall (pretty violently) to test $775 support (and potentially lower). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1k.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% GOLD, 70% Cash. *H&S Formation Watch. In anticipation of a critical FOMC statement to be released tomorrow at 2pm (deciding on whether or not to raise FFR by 75-100bp to more aggressively combat inflation), the US dollar and treasuries are once again stealing the bullish spotlight as cryptos and equities remain relatively flat and Gold is taking a tumble.* Price is currently retesting the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810 after testing it back on 05/13/22 and failing to climb even halfway back up the channel; this is bearish. Additionally, Price has completed a second shoulder formation in the H&S and could see a short term bounce here before completing a potential H&S sell off. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor sellers in a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$1880 (which coincides with the 50 MA); this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is beginning to form a trough at 38 as it fast approaches a test of the uptrend line from April 2013 at ~37; if it breaks below this level, the next support is at 27.07 which hints that Price will have a bit of room to fall in a short amount of time. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 33 as it approaches a test of 25.40 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -9.60 which is just above -10.84 resistance (though it crossed above this level it still has not confirmed it as support). ADX is currently trending down slightly at 13 as Price is beginning to develop downward momentum; if ADX can begin trough formation here as Price continues to fall, this would be bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810, it will likely aim to retest the 50 MA at ~$1840 before either a) potentially moving higher or b) completing a H&S formation bull trap before plummeting lower. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely formally retest $1783 support for the first time since 01/28/22. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1840.
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by dailytaguy