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FOMC

NZDUSD; Forex recap and the week aheadWhile NZDUSD continued its bearishness last week, it showed a strong move up on Wednesday to produce a Thursday high. However, it sold off very quickly as it continued its drop during Thursday's London and New York sessions. The pair mostly consolidated on Monday and Tuesday. NZ Unemployment Rate report was the only high impact news coming from New Zealand last week but failed to affect a substantial move, and the NZDUSD kept inside of Monday’s range. Last week, the big fundamental impact came from the US, which had FOMC on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. The former event is what finally broke the pair out of its range, pushing up over 130 pips in just a couple of hours. As noted above, the pair quickly reversed this climb and eventually ended the week lower by 0.77%. The NZDUSD has now racked up a monthly loss of just over 7.00%. The next two worst performing pairs on the monthly time scale are the GBPUSD and the AUDUSD, down by 5.63% and 5.48%, respectively. In the chart, we see the weekly opening price, and last Thursday’s high noted. In the bottom window, we see the Stochastic indicator from TradingView. Traders who use this indicator will try to look for overbought or oversold areas in price - gauging whether a sell or buy is unfolding when the indicator is showing extremes on either end of the window. It could also be used for divergence as we see a few hours before FOMC news. The indicator did not make a lower low, while the NZD/USD moved slightly lower than the low made in the previous session. Next week’s high impact events Events relating to the NZDUSD this week are the numerous speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, speaks on Monday and Tuesday, likely to further dampen hopes for a 75 basis points hike from the Fed in June. The more hawkish officials such as John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Christopher Waller (Board of Governors) take the mic after Bostic, potential building a case against Bostic’s and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovishness. Thrown in the mix this week is the US Inflation Rate YoY for April. This report is due on Wednesday (UTC+4) and is expected to fall closer to 8.0% from 8.5% in March.
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC: FOMC IMPACT ON THE PRICE OF BTC!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this exclusive BTC analysis. FOMC has had a huge impact on the price of BTC since the start of 2022. Here's my view on how can it be affected this time. This event has the potential to change the course of risk markets (#BTC etc.) from bear to bull or to cause a capitulation event in risk, depending on the outcome. In the previous two meetings, the FED hiked its rates and that would bring a positive outcome for BTC. The March 16 FOMC meeting marked a local bottom for BTC and after the announcement, we have seen a relief rally. The market is currently in a similar environment to the one created during the lead-up to the March FOMC meeting. Markets are at critical levels, being ultimate support. US Dollar index, USDT Dominance is at important levels of resistance and BTC is at an important level of support from here we can expect a relief rally soon. After the last two meetings, the BTC price shows a 20-25% bounce so if the same thing happens this time we might see a relief rally up to $45k-$48k in the next two weeks. What do you think about this? Share your views in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
6
Pound takes a tumble after BoE hikeThe British pound is fading badly on Thursday. GBP/USD has dropped a staggering 2.15% today and has fallen below the 1.24 line for the first time since July 2020. After the BoE decision, market focus has shifted to the elections in Northern Ireland later today. A Sinn Fein victory could weigh on the wobbly pound. The BoE raised interest rates for a fourth straight time since December, bringing the Official Bank Rate to 1.00%, its highest since 2009. Yet the market reception to the BoE move was decidedly chilly, as the pound has plunged almost 2% today. Why the sour reaction from the markets? The 0.25% was a modest move and it's questionable if it will have much impact on soaring inflation. In March, CPI rose to 7.0%, up from 6.2%, and the BoE has warned that inflation could surpass 10%. The modest rate hike passed by a vote of 6-3, surprising the markets which had expected an 8-1 vote. Two MPC members called for a 0.50% hike, which reveals a sharp split within the MPC. Governor Bailey admitted after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC, and such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence amongst investors. The BoE cannot be blamed for not being aggressive - it is well into its rate-hike cycle and the policy summary noted that "some degree of further tightening in monetary policy may still be appropriate in the coming months". In addition, the BoE dropped the word "modest" to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets appeared to focus on the split vote and the warning from the BoE that the country could face a sharp economic downturn, and the thumbs-down response has sent the pound sharply lower. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates at its meeting by a half-point, the largest increase in 20 years. The Fed signalled that it will deliver additional half-point hikes in June and July, with Fed Chair Powell stating that the FOMC was not "actively considering" a 0.75% increase. The Fed is also implementing quantitative tightening with a reduction in the balance sheet. Starting in June, the Fed will sell USD 45 billion/mth in assets, which will rise to USD 95 billion/mth in September. In sharp contrast to the BoE's hike, the financial markets reacted positively, as investors believe that the Fed's rate hikes can curb inflation while ensuring a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719 There is support at 1.2272 and 1.2179
by OANDA
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep this one brief today as we’re not really interested in trading this on the intraday levels. Instead, we want to wait for key levels to break and act as support or resistance, or we want key levels to get hit where we can test the entries for the longer trades. As you can see we’ve hit the lower level we wanted on the KOG Report which was published on Sunday leaving the higher levels still open. We can still see some movement up to come, however, how low can they swing it if they want to before we see the rise at least to target the 1900 level. So here are the two scenarios we will be looking at for FOMC and potentially during the course of tomorrow, unless anything changes. We’re going to use the 1HR chart with the 4HR Key levels, so it makes it easier to follow the price. Scenario 1: They push the price up from here, the first level we want to look for a reaction in price is the 1890-95 price point. This is where there could be an opportunity to short the market down into the 1850-40 price region. We will then be looking around 1830-25 for a grab and potentially this could represent an opportunity to then trade this back up to where the price broke out from and maybe higher. Breaking the 1890-95 level then we're looking at 1914 and above that 1930-35. Scenario 2: They push the price down, its likely they will swoop just below the 1850-45 price level and then attempt to recover the price back up to target the 1900 level and potentially beyond. Breaking the 1840 level will likely mean they will hit our 1835 target where again we will likely see a reaction in price to potentially take the long trade. In Summary: We have the levels of 1830-25 below and we have the levels of 1925-35 above. If they really want to move the price they can move it to either of these extreme levels. The best option on funds like this is to sit out, wait for the to target the levels, let the price show signs of exhaustion and then take your entry. Trying to catch this up and down in high volume high volatility is potluck, you’ll either get it right or you’ll get it wrong. Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
25
GOLD LONG TO 2140We have seen a completion of Wave 3, completed with a retracement to the downside (Wave 4), giving Gold the liquidity to carry on its bullish movement. The final leg part of the bullish phase will be make Gold reach 2140-2160 this year before we see a downtrend start. We have FOMC tonight which will bring a lot of volatility into the markets. Be careful with your positions and make sure to use risk management as manipulation is expected. Make sure to drop a like and let me know what you think!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
BITCOIN 30min TA : 05.04.22 (Update)You can see the amazing reaction of Bitcoin to its support level , and of course, it should be noted that the trading volume in the 37K range was very interesting , we have to see how the market will react with today's news . Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 05.04.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
Long Scalp SPX/SPY May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility , that the current expected movement is around 1.75 - 2% +- Our top is going to be 4250 Our bot is going to be 4075 From the technical analysis point, Volume was broken on the top side above 4150 and 4175 (yesterday and today POC volume) so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity. At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 4155 I believe we can go towards 4200 minimum From fundamental point of view We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision. This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible. So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by exlux
Long Scalp BTC May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility, that the current expected movement is around 3.05% +- Our top is going to be 40k Our bot is going to be 37.5k From the technical analysis point, Volume was broken on the top side above 38000, so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity. At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 38200. I believe we can go towards 39k minimum From fundamental point of view We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision. This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible. So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by exlux
2
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty) We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish 25 bps market will rally 50 bps appears discounted 75 bps market will panic Hence better to stay light Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28 This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times. Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
NSE:INDIAVIX
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
$TSLA ShortBarring a tech fueled melt up and covering tomorrow after FOMC decision (14:00) I spy a daily bear flag on an incredibly resilient symbol and everyone's favorite Billionaire. Q's showing some weakness overnight session, if lower in the morning expect a short squeeze at open to get shorts off sides again and then a tank shortly after the cash open. There is obvious buyers/covering happening at these levels ($NQs 12000 pocket) But nothing in the way of a meltdown should the market gods not enjoy the fed speak tomorrow. $TSLA $946 is a ceiling to watch IMO. Be careful especially around the meeting in the afternoon. A move down to the low $800s is very possible over the next few days as it's actually showing some weakness.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Todoubled23
10
US dollar and DXYThe US dollar still maintains some strength after the DXY recorded the last peak at 103.78, before the results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) were released today. Also this week, the US dollar is awaiting many important indicators that affect its trading, starting from tomorrow, Wednesday The 1.4% decline in first-quarter GDP released last week may catch the eye of the FOMC with high inflation readings and waning positivity labor market data support prospects for a follow-up rate hike 104 to 104.70 a very possible target in the coming period and we may see more
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Walid_Aboeldahab