POST FOMC 1HR WK #18I encourage you to have a look at how price has behaved near the 1hr 800 ema or 4hr 200ema
Vol check
FOMC
VIX small pullback then higher?Watching VIX daily for a small pullback and maybe sideways, and then possibly through the descending trendline from the covid highs.
This would coincide with elliott wave analysis for the SPY for another leg down, and also the FOMC meeting coming next week (5/3), which is expected to bring volatility.
Initial fib target $37.13, but the descending trendline break and push above prior resistance levels could get a jump into the 40's or higher
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC:
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
We’re going to keep this one brief today as we’re not really interested in trading this on the intraday levels. Instead, we want to wait for key levels to break and act as support or resistance, or we want key levels to get hit where we can test the entries for the longer trades. As you can see we’ve hit the lower level we wanted on the KOG Report which was published on Sunday leaving the higher levels still open. We can still see some movement up to come, however, how low can they swing it if they want to before we see the rise at least to target the 1900 level.
So here are the two scenarios we will be looking at for FOMC and potentially during the course of tomorrow, unless anything changes. We’re going to use the 1HR chart with the 4HR Key levels, so it makes it easier to follow the price.
Scenario 1:
They push the price up from here, the first level we want to look for a reaction in price is the 1890-95 price point. This is where there could be an opportunity to short the market down into the 1850-40 price region. We will then be looking around 1830-25 for a grab and potentially this could represent an opportunity to then trade this back up to where the price broke out from and maybe higher. Breaking the 1890-95 level then we're looking at 1914 and above that 1930-35.
Scenario 2:
They push the price down, its likely they will swoop just below the 1850-45 price level and then attempt to recover the price back up to target the 1900 level and potentially beyond. Breaking the 1840 level will likely mean they will hit our 1835 target where again we will likely see a reaction in price to potentially take the long trade.
In Summary:
We have the levels of 1830-25 below and we have the levels of 1925-35 above. If they really want to move the price they can move it to either of these extreme levels. The best option on funds like this is to sit out, wait for the to target the levels, let the price show signs of exhaustion and then take your entry. Trying to catch this up and down in high volume high volatility is potluck, you’ll either get it right or you’ll get it wrong.
Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
GOLD LONG TO 2140We have seen a completion of Wave 3, completed with a retracement to the downside (Wave 4), giving Gold the liquidity to carry on its bullish movement. The final leg part of the bullish phase will be make Gold reach 2140-2160 this year before we see a downtrend start.
We have FOMC tonight which will bring a lot of volatility into the markets. Be careful with your positions and make sure to use risk management as manipulation is expected. Make sure to drop a like and let me know what you think!
Market Overview Ahead Of FOMCHello traders.
New video is here, talking about EURUSD, SP500, VIX, GOLD, CRUDE and USDMXN Ahead Of FOMC.
No positions here. Want to see the market reaction.
BITCOIN 30min TA : 05.04.22 (Update)You can see the amazing reaction of Bitcoin to its support level , and of course, it should be noted that the trading volume in the 37K range was very interesting , we have to see how the market will react with today's news .
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 05.04.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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Long Scalp SPX/SPY May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility , that the current expected movement is around 1.75 - 2% +-
Our top is going to be 4250
Our bot is going to be 4075
From the technical analysis point,
Volume was broken on the top side above 4150 and 4175 (yesterday and today POC volume) so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity.
At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 4155
I believe we can go towards 4200 minimum
From fundamental point of view
We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision.
This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible.
So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
Long Scalp BTC May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility, that the current expected movement is around 3.05% +-
Our top is going to be 40k
Our bot is going to be 37.5k
From the technical analysis point,
Volume was broken on the top side above 38000, so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity.
At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 38200.
I believe we can go towards 39k minimum
From fundamental point of view
We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision.
This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible.
So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty)
We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish
25 bps market will rally
50 bps appears discounted
75 bps market will panic
Hence better to stay light
Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28
This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times.
Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
$NQ1! Daily Bear flagObvious buyers stepping in below old lows (march 14th)
Obvious short covering area.
The extra bounce and volatility this past week has been solely due to earnings beats IMO. Or else the flag would look a bit cleaner and more defined.
I think Q's can muster the follow through breakdown over the short term. Good luck and be careful around the fed decision tomorrow.
$ABMD Bear FlagDaily/weekly bear flag intact. Maybe watch for the local highs to be probed then reject.
Per vwaps I expect this to hit $255 sooner than later.
Large volume profile nodes around $300 so quite a range here.
Good luck, alerts are you're friend use them!
$LINC longStill showing incredible resilience in a bear market.
Daily/weekly flag remains intact at the time of writing.
Watching for a 52wk high breakout and rejection shortly after be nimble on the breakout if you wish to play it.
Holding above many many vwaps of all lengths of time/volume.
Serious amount of liquidity above $265s OBV still moving up and institutional buyers keep stepping in here.
Stop below $285.
$TSLA ShortBarring a tech fueled melt up and covering tomorrow after FOMC decision (14:00) I spy a daily bear flag on an incredibly resilient symbol and everyone's favorite Billionaire.
Q's showing some weakness overnight session, if lower in the morning expect a short squeeze at open to get shorts off sides again and then a tank shortly after the cash open.
There is obvious buyers/covering happening at these levels ($NQs 12000 pocket) But nothing in the way of a meltdown should the market gods not enjoy the fed speak tomorrow.
$TSLA $946 is a ceiling to watch IMO. Be careful especially around the meeting in the afternoon. A move down to the low $800s is very possible over the next few days as it's actually showing some weakness.
GOLD day ahead of FOMC meetingGOLD is in downtrend on the daily chart and intraday, but it's looking too extended to go short. Ideas on where to start looking for a short entry as well as short targets are presented in the video.
This is not trade or investment advice, this is just me clarifying my own analysis in a video.
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US dollar and DXYThe US dollar still maintains some strength after the DXY recorded the last peak at 103.78, before the results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) were released today.
Also this week, the US dollar is awaiting many important indicators that affect its trading, starting from tomorrow, Wednesday
The 1.4% decline in first-quarter GDP released last week may catch the eye of the FOMC with high inflation readings and waning positivity labor market data support prospects for a follow-up rate hike
104 to 104.70 a very possible target in the coming period and we may see more
