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ECB speeches, Macron, and FOMC stir EUR/USD A high number of European Central Bank (ECB) officials are making public speeches in the 24 before the Fed rate decision this week Wednesday that could help or hinder the EUR/USD. Also, thrown in the mix now is French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for a snap local election after the results of the EU Parliament elections, adding to market uncertainty. The EURUSD has extended to a 5-week low. 1.0700 could be the next target for the bears as the price has now moved into a swing area between 1.0718 and 1.0750. Perhaps the most important speeches will come from Luis de Guindos (Vice-President of the ECB), Philip R. Lane (ECB Executive Board member), and Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board). Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance. Last week, the EU became the fourth Western economy to reduce its lending rate, announcing progress in tackling inflation. It lowered its main interest rate from a record high of 4% to 3.75%. Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at Prudential Investment Management, expressed "reasonable confidence" that the ECB would further cut rates over the summer or autumn, potentially bringing EU rates to 3.5% or lower by year-end. Investors will be closely analyzing the upcoming ECB speeches for any hints that support this prediction.
by BlackBull_Markets
Fed decision time: Rate cuts before Nov election? The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds target range at 5.25%-5.5% when officials conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be scrutinizing the statement to learn when the central bank might eventually reduce its rate and the potential frequency of such cuts this year. Market expectations suggest a possible rate cut in mid-September, 2 months ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, noted that the recent May jobs report likely ruled out a rate cut in July, while Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, goes even further, suggesting that the robust U.S. economy diminishes the likelihood of a pre-election rate cut. The Fed has rescheduled its November meeting to occur post-election, a move reminiscent of 2020. In a letter addressed to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, three Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have called for rate cuts as soon as possible. "The Fed’s monetary policy is... driving up housing and auto insurance costs—two of the key drivers of inflation...”. Former Fed Vice-Chair Donald Kohn asserted that Chair Powell has consistently maintained that decisions are driven by economic conditions rather than political considerations, expressing confidence that this principle will be upheld in the coming months.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: I last week’s KOG report we said we would be watching that 2340 extension level for a move upside in the early part of the week, and if achieved we would be looking to short the market back down initially into the 2310 level which is where we felt the RIP will come from. We had a little stretch into 2355 but got the move we wanted for the trade and then the bounce. On the way up we also took the long in Camelot giving us a fantastic start to the week. During the week we updated traders with the plan to go long into that higher regions and gave them a target level of 2370 which was achieved, in Camelot we had 2385, which was hit on the nose, gave us a TAP AND BOUNCE short trade, and the rest is history, what a move and trades on Gold last week giving us another record breaking capture. Well done to our team for their hard work not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and analyse, with Oil also giving us a lovely upside trade. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’ll start by saying we have FOMC and Cpi this week on the same day, so please trade carefully and expect there to be more aggressive price action across the markets. We have some key levels here on gold sitting below at 2380-75 which we feel are reasonable for attack and as shown on the chart, if held we feel there is an opportunity to long the market back up into 2310 and above that 2325 regions with extension of the move into 2330. That would be the ideal move for us, and if we see resistance with a clean set up in that resistance level, we’ll be hunting a short again to take this a lower. PLEASE NOTE – If they break below that level early session, the long trade will come from lower down in the 2250-55 region, which is a level to watch for this week! KOG's bias for the week: Bearish below 2335 with targets below 2385 and below that 2373 Bullish on break of 2335 with targets above 2355 and above that 2389 In summary: Price goes up, we’ll trade it level to level, expecting ranging and choppy market conditions, looking for the higher resistance levels. Higher resistance levels, we’ll be looking for the short trade if it presents itself. Price goes down, we’ll look for support to hold, a clean reversal and we’ll look to long. Nice and simple, we’re looking for a few decent trades on Gold this week due to FOMC and Cpi. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
14
The Dollar Remains On TrackThe dollar is right on its projected path as expected. Inflation has prevented the Fed from lowering rates at least once. Can we expect a rate drop before the end of the year? My guess is that even with a bit of inflation showing the Fed will drop rates at least once. There are several reasons for my conclusion here not least of which are weakening economic indications which are too numerous to list for the purposes of this post but some of which are the collapsing car market, cc default rates exploding, commercial real estate vacancies still increasing, and many other factors and lead indicators. There is also the fact that the Fed was initially expected to drop rates 3 times in 2024. Failing to drop at least once before the end of the year would have psychological ramifications on the market that potentially could be disastrous. And finally, there is the fun fact that historically the Fed has always adjusted rates in an election year. There is only one exception to this rule …2012. Based upon this statistic alone we can see that the probability of a rate adjustment this year is high. And we know that if there is an adjustment, it will almost certainly be to the downside as that is what has been expected all along. Any anomaly to expectations would cause chaos and catastrophe in the markets. All this being said we can then continue to expect the dollar to travel its expected pathway …down. 103.5 is the next support. Below that is that pink ascending trendline around 102 and rising.
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
Which Fed speaker moves the market the most? We have another eventful week ahead with numerous Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak publicly. Anecdotally, I seem to recall Mester and Kashkari are two of the most impactful speakers, and this week provides an excellent opportunity to see if this holds true. Kashkari recently left The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), so his impact might be lessened these days though. Here is the lineup of Fed speakers for the week, in order of appearance: Tuesday: Loretta J. Mester Neel Kashkari Lisa D. Cook Wednesday: John C. Williams Dr. Raphael W. Bostic Thursday: John C. Williams (second appearance) Lorie K. Logan Friday: Dr. Raphael W. Bostic (second appearance) Their speeches might offer valuable insights into the Fed's future actions and the overall economic outlook. It seems that these speeches can occasionally be more impactful than major Fed decision days. It's almost as if the market perceives these talks as a glimpse behind the curtain, potentially providing an insider perspective that may be less tightly controlled than those of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY steady as Japanese PMIs mixedThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.70, down 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s PMIs for April were a mixed bag and the yen didn’t show much reaction. Services PMI dipped to 53.6, down from 54.3 in March and just shy of the forecast of 53.8. This was the smallest growth in services since February. Manufacturing PMI showed improvement and rose to 50.5, up from 49.6 in March and above the market estimate of 49.7. This was the first growth since May 2023 as manufacturing has been in a prolonged slump. The 50 level separates contraction from growth. The Japanese economy is showing signs of improving after first-quarter GDP declined. Inflation has been easing, which could hamper the ability of the Bank of Japan to increase rates without reigniting deflation. With inflation falling around the globe, major central banks have been under pressure to lower interest rates. The central banks remain cautious, however, and the Fed minutes indicated that there was a discussion to raise rates at the May 1st meeting. Other central banks are also unclear about their rate path – the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand held rates at their most recent meetings but also considered hiking rates. The FOMC minutes noted that policy makers are not confident about lowering rates at this stage and want to see more evidence that inflation will continue to drop and remain sustainable around the 2% target. This message is consistent with what we have been hearing from a host of Fed members, although the markets have priced in a September rate cut. USD/JPY tested support at 156.02 earlier. Below, there is support at 156.33 157.07 and 157.32 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
DXY ( US DOLLAR Index ) Analysis 19/05/24Scenario 01 : if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates : Probability of this to happend is lower in my opinion but could happend somehow 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of the dollar strengthens. This is because higher interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar. So, the Dixie would likely see an increase in value. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* If interest rates rise, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, would likely see an uptick as well. Again, this is due to increased demand for the dollar from foreign investors seeking higher returns. Scenario 02 : if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates the same: 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* If interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar's value might stay relatively stable. Without a change in interest rates to attract or deter investment, the Dixie may not experience significant fluctuations. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* Similarly, the U.S. Dollar Index could remain steady if interest rates are unchanged. It might experience some minor movements based on other economic factors, but overall, it's likely to maintain its current level. Scenario 03 : if the Federal Reserve Cut / Lower interest rates: (Probability is High because of the inflation is high and Jerome Mentioned he might Cut rates in the next meeting) 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Lowering interest rates usually leads to a decrease in the value of the dollar. This is because lower rates make it less attractive for foreign investors to hold onto dollars, as they can find higher returns elsewhere. So, the Dixie might depreciate. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* A cut in interest rates could lead to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index as well. Lower rates could weaken the dollar's value relative to other currencies, causing the index to decrease. In summary, changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have significant impacts on both the Dixie and the U.S. Dollar Index, influencing their values in the foreign exchange market.
TVC:DXY
by TraderFa9ir
⭐️ XAU/USD : NFP's effects on $GOLD (IMPORTANT ANALYSIS)Upon reviewing gold in the weekly timeframe, we observe that the price is trading around $2298. If the NFP data is announced to be higher than the forecasted rate, it will strengthen the dollar index and consequently cause a significant drop in gold prices! Should this occur and gold stabilizes below $2300, we can expect a fall in gold prices to lower levels such as (in order) $2268, $2243, $2229, and $2222. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCThe KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had an extremely decent week so far, together with the long that was presented to us earlier in the session today. As it stands, we’re in the 4H order region, which is why price is attempting the intra-day levels of support and resistance, while they temporarily accumulate orders. This now gives us support 2295-90, which if supported on the spike, could give the move upside into the region highlighted on the chart. It’s this level that needs to be monitored closely and if the set up allows with a clean resistance, a move downside breaking the 2300 level again could be available. With events like this, there is usually a flip and it’s unexpected. So expect the market to spike either way collecting liquidity. We would also say, the trade usually comes after the event, so it’s best to wait for them to move the market to where they want, then look for a clean set up. Please note, these are key levels, if broken above, we can correct the move from yesterday and end up closer to 2390 than 2255 end of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
Levels discussed on 2nd May Livestream2nd May DXY: Consolidate along 105.50, Look for price to break 105.50, trade down to 105.30. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5960 SL 20 TP 50 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6590 SL 25 TP 65 USDJPY: Sell 154.80 SL 50 TP 180 GBPUSD: Buy 1.2570 SL 40 TP 80 EURUSD: Watch the resistance level Buy 1.0750 SL 30 TP 70 or Sell 1.0715 SL 30 TP 65 USDCHF: Sell 0.9130 SL 20 TP 75 USDCAD: At the support level, Sell 1.3695 SL 20 TP 60 or Buy 1.3730 SL 25 TP 50 Gold: Needs to break 2300 to trade down to 2282
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
1
MAY 1ST 2024 US30 FOMC Trade Idea/LiveTrade I approached the charts fresh out of the shower. I got in at 9:20 AM NY Time and got to the computer around 9:40 AM NY time. But anyway, I saw on the weekly that we were slowly rejecting lows. So, that means if I saw either a shift in structure or a change in the state of delivery, aka a break above an OB that has taken liquidity to go higher on the 4H or 1H, then price could slightly be trading back higher just to raid above a high, then proceed lower. But in order for me to keep that bias, I must see if a daily key level was being respected and if price has recently raided a low while also rebalancing within an FVG. If so, then price is more likely bullish. And that's exactly what happened.
FX:US30Long
by Jblavishfx
Why has the US dollar sunk in the lead up to the FOMC decision? Why has the US dollar sunk in the lead up to the FOMC decision? Bloomberg Economics says “We expect Powell to make a hawkish pivot” regarding the FOMC’s decision this Wednesday. Expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024. So, why is the US dollar underperforming to start this week? And does this open up an even more attractive entry point to a long dollar position? One reason dragging the USD down could be the possible Japanese government intervention as Japanese banks have been reportedly dumping US dollars. The Japanese yen rebounded about 1.4% to 156.000 per greenback after weakening to as low as 160.000 earlier in the session Another reason could be the prevailing optimism surrounding peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Cairo, which has invigorated appetite for riskier assets, like the NZD/USD which is up 0.70% as of writing. In Australia, robust inflation figures have surpassed expectations, fueling speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may defer any interest rate cuts in the near term. The AUD/USD is up 0.55% as of writing. Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom's Chief Economist Huw Pill has pointed to recent economic data that might bring the prospect of a rate cut closer, although he remains guarded in his assessment, suggesting that such a move may still be some distance away.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data. Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June. Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time. In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
2
FOMC FORWARD GUIDANCE SINCE 2018 w/FED SPEAKERS w/SPX The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations and economic behavior. By examining the interplay between FOMC forward guidance and these key economic indicators, investors, policymakers, and analysts can gain insights into the likely direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy. I have also included comments from various FOMC speakers to better form a picture of the past.
SP:SPX
by koyking