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FOMC

How to BRR 101Refer to my prev AMD post back in Jan for credibility - I predicted run to 158-165 when it was in the 130s (result: ran to 180s). Now we have a buy the dip opportunity after earnings sell off. There is still too much demand for this to tank yet, it wants one more high (at least). Path to targets is the solid black line. Bullish channel its respecting is the dashed blue channel, every time it dips outside of that it gets bought up fast: - Initial target = 187.50 by 2/9/2024 - After that hits it will pullback to around 176 - If 176 can hold as support it will make one final run to 192-199 by early March 2024 Trailing Stop loss is 2 consecutive closes below the dotted red line. Entered Feb 16 175 calls for 3.50 on 1/31/2024 (underlying 167.67)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by JerryManders
10
Will FOMC cause a EUR/USD rush?We’re coming down to the last hour stretch for the trading day (depending on your location, I’m in New York so closing time is 5:00 P.M. (1700) As indicated in my previous idea for the EUR/USD, it has been a pretty slow decline for the past 10 days however; it is still wedged in, in terms of a still valid falling wedge pattern. If the daily candle closes with a gain, that signifies a strong indication of a bullish move but the question is, if the bulls decided to run, how far will the up move be? If targets are at the pattern projection, we’re looking at 1.0900 minimum which is in the same area at the main pivot zone. If sellers come pouring in, then I’d project a move down to at least 1.0750. With FOMC on the horizon, I wouldn’t be surprised if price whipsawed to stop many traders out before actually making any significant move. From a purely technical point of view, we’ve got a falling wedge with what is now a more prominent “hidden” MACD divergence. Long term, I’m bullish on the EUR/USD due to a large bullish pattern that can be observed on both the Monthly and Quarterly time frames. Projected long term price targets are 1.1500 followed by a second target of 1.2000 We shall see tomorrow with FOMC and NFP Friday morning. Trade safe and manage risk.
Long
by InternalTraderNYC
Update: Here is the fundamental and TA for Crude oil PricesWednesday we had inventory reports that showed an increase in US oil production combined with the feds hawkish interest rate sentiment which sent prices deep into discount. OPEC did announce they will be cutting oil production while US supply did increase apparently, US production has slowed down the last 18months. I believe next week this will start to reflect in the Crude oil inventory report, if economic data starts lessen it will give us a strong push to the upside amid the rising tension in the middle east (OPEC cuts and Nile attacks). source: www.nasdaq.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jewlstagara
🔥 Bitcoin Losing The Short-Term Uptrend? BAD Reaction To FOMCWith the FOMC practically concluded, the market is reacting with a strong sell-off in both crypto and stocks. The FED has announced to keep their interest rate stable for the 4th time in a row, as it wants to see a stronger reduction in inflation before cutting rates. Higher rates for longer, the market doesn't like that. As seen on the chart, BTC is trading in a decent uptrend for the last week. However, there's a risk that the FOMC will mark a top and that the bears will take over from here. Keep in mind, bears are still waiting patiently after the post-ETF sell-off. If BTC breaks through the bottom support, we could quickly fall back towards 41k or even lower.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
4
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCThe KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. On Sundays report we said we had 3 levels in mind for the week ahead. 2010-12, 2030-35 and extension level 2045-50. It’s this level here we were expecting a move into for a potential tap and bounce, however, on Monday we activated long and took our trades from the 2018 completing another Excalibur target today around 2043. We’re still within the plan on the KOG Report, but FOMC is likely to throw us some curve balls, so we’ll have to play the cards we’re dealt for the rest of the week! So, for todays move we’re still looking at extreme levels, not only due to FOMC, which may already be priced in, but also for NFP. We’re going to highlight the above resistance level as 2060-5 as a potential target level from support regions below, that’s if the price level is not touched during the rest of the week. This now turns 2030-35 into support on the flip which could be a level they dip into on the move, to then continue the move to the upside, before we then see a reaction in price. Pre-event plan, we’re going to stick with one scenario, if we get it we’re in, if not, we’re happy to sit and wait for the right set up. If you’ve taken enough from the market already, please also do the same. We’ll be looking for price to push up into the 2060-65 region and hold, this level we feel holds an opportunity to short the market back down into the 2050-45 price point, and then below that 2030-35. Price will need to break below the 2030 level to complete the move to the downside, as we initially wanted in the KOG report on Sunday targeting the break of 2000! Price breaks above 2060-65, we’ll sit and wait for tomorrow and let Excalibur activate. KOG’s bias for the event: Bullish above 2030 with targets above 2060 and above that 2065 Bearish on break of 2030 with target below 2010 Please use this as a guide, FOMC is most likely priced in. It’s the press conference 30mins into the hour where the market will be looking for clues to future economic news. We may see some late sessions movement across the markets, so please make sure you have a strict risk model in place, if you’re going to try and trade it. Otherwise, sit it out, wait for them to move the market to where they want to, then look for the right set up at the right time. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
higher prices on Crude oil (update) If prices continue to struggle going bullish after inventory or week come in red. I expect prices to drop into mitigation and if that happens you will see an explosive move on oil. Otherwise, they should take buy side liquidity @70.77 and come back into internal range (mitigation/volume imbalance) Mind you, if the fed also cuts rates today that will weaken the USD and strengthen foreign currencies creating more demand for oil and short inventory reports will surge prices higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by jewlstagara
1
Discussion of Levels before the FOMC January 31st DXY: (Fed Decision) Stay below 103.80 could trade down to 102.70 support. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 15 TP 40 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 15 TP 60 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 147.10 SL 30 TP 200 (Hesitation at 146.45) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2715 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0790 SL 15 TP 45 (2nd setup) Sell 1.0730 SL 20 TP 70 USDCHF: Consolidation, possible straddle Buy 0.8655 SL 20 TP 55 Sell 0.8600 SL 15 TP 40 USDCAD: Sell 1.3400 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Break above 2040 trade up to 2055 (Conflict escalation & DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Bitcoin will sell into discount amid interest rate hikes CPI headline inflation come in higher than previous so expect another rate hike. When the institutions step in with their ETF money expect them to gab all the liquidity from prior month lows to bring price into discount because that it there angle. prices should come down into these discounted Arrays for buys in line with bitcoin halving this summer or whenever it gets there ( it will eventually) and don't find it a coincidence that it happened after approval amid interest rate hikes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jewlstagara
EURUSD Breakout and Potential retrace with today's CPIIn today's trading session, our attention is focused on EURUSD, with a keen eye on a potential selling opportunity around the 1.09700 zone. After breaking out of its uptrend, the pair is currently in a correction phase, edging closer to the retrace area at the 1.09700 support and resistance zone. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could play a pivotal role. The US dollar's strength, influenced by economic indicators such as CPI, may impact the overall direction of EURUSD. Traders should keep a close watch on the evolving market dynamics, especially considering the potential implications of USD strength on this currency pair. As always, trade safe. Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
1
Gold Setup H1 Time Frame | CPI Data NewsGold Setup H1 Time Frame | CPI Data News Hey Traders ❗️ Welcome back hope you're doing well This is our 5 analysis on Gold Setup These idea not based on sell or buy Its based on #Levels and prediction On this Setup we catched more then 700 #pips As you guys seem #Gold currnet point at 2033.65 We draw the two circles at 2040 and draw the line at 2047.00 #CPI fundamental high news impact might be tried to break these resistance at 2040-2047 🔵 Overall we are on #Bearish Although gold overall view is at 2020-2019 then 2005 ❗️ So enjoy the Gold H1 setup with us 🙌 Cheers....
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by professionaltradersfx
USOIL| Level 74$ will be decisive!Analyzing the oil market, we see that WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is priced around $72.55 per barrel, while Brent is at $77.71 per barrel. Several key factors are influencing the current oil market scenario. Saudi Price Reduction: Saudi Arabia's decision to lower the prices of its oil exports to Asia has contributed to a bounce back in prices from the Monday low of $70. This move might increase the competitiveness of Saudi oil in the Asian market, thus impacting the global market. Decline in Inflation and Oil Demand: The fall in oil prices is welcomed by analysts and fund managers as it could lead to a further decrease in inflation. Stock Market Dynamics and DXY Index: The steady state of the US Dollar Index (DXY) around 102.00, despite some selling pressures, and the strengthening of US and Japanese stock markets, indicate investor confidence, which could positively affect the oil market. Geopolitical Tensions: Despite geopolitical tensions, such as the recent elections in Taiwan and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, markets seem to be overlooking these risks, which could keep the oil market stable in the short term. Russian Compliance with OPEC+ Cuts: Russia is adhering to the production cuts agreed upon in the last OPEC+ meeting, helping to balance the market supply. Speculations and Realpolitik: Rumors that shipping companies paid fees to Houthi rebels for safe passage in the Red Sea, though denied, demonstrate the market's sensitivity to such news. US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Israel could have implications for the security of maritime passages and, consequently, the oil market. US CPI Expectations: With the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), a further decrease in oil prices could be expected, potentially stimulating demand. Technical Analysis: The $74 level is pivotal for WTI; we might see a bullish breakout towards $80 or a pullback towards $71. Happy trading to everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
Gold Puzzles: ISM Downturn, NFP Beats, and Thurday's CPI.In today's trading session, our attention is directed towards XAUUSD, where we're eyeing a buying opportunity around the 2008 zone. Gold, emblematic of a broader uptrend, currently finds itself in a correction phase, steadily approaching the key trend at the 2008 support and resistance area. This technical perspective serves as our initial guide. Diving into the specifics, the recent ISM figures revealed a notable downturn, falling from the forecasted 52.5 to the actual 50.6, signaling a slower expansion in the manufacturing sector than anticipated. This unexpected contraction has cast a shadow on the US economic outlook. Coupled with the recently released NFP data, where the actual job gains surpassed both the forecast (184k) and the previous (150k), a nuanced economic landscape is emerging. This intricate scenario, where manufacturing lags while employment gains outpace expectations, introduces a level of uncertainty. The mixed signals within the labor market further underline the potential for a dovish Fed. Adding to this equation, the CPI data becomes a pivotal factor. In this intricate dance of numbers, the potential for a softer CPI reading aligns with the narrative of a cautious Federal Reserve. Now, weaving these numbers into the fabric of our analysis, the combination of weak ISM figures, strong NFP job gains, and the prospect of a softer CPI contributes to the argument for USD shorts. As we traverse the complex economic landscape, gold emerges as a candidate for potential upside movements amid the increasing likelihood of USD weakness. Stay vigilant, Joe, and trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
4
USOIL: Route map 71.50-79 awaiting the FED!Observing the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), I notice an upward trend, with the price having retested the bullish trendline after breaking through the $74 level. Now, I expect a slight pullback towards $71.50 before a significant rebound towards $79 per barrel. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, I've also detected growing concerns about the stability of demand due to an increase in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, leading to a decrease in prices. I am particularly mindful of the impact of Middle East tensions on energy markets. These conflicts directly influence logistics and shipping, so much so that I've observed companies diverting their ships from the Suez Canal route to avoid waters infested with Houthi rebels, significantly changing commercial routes between Europe and Asia. The arrival of an Iranian warship further complicates the situation. Additionally, I am monitoring the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, aware of the risk that it might involve neighboring countries. I've noticed that Iran has suspended crude shipments to China to secure higher prices. This move is particularly interesting as it follows China's advance purchase of a significant portion of its annual oil demand, enjoying a discount on imports from sanction-hit Iran. In conclusion, my personal analysis describes a complex WTI oil market influenced by a variety of geopolitical and technical factors. I am closely monitoring how Middle East tensions, Iran's strategies, and technical indicators affect the direction of WTI prices. Best regards and have a great weekend, from Nicola.
TVC:USOILLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
AUDUSD Chronicles: Linking CPI, FOMC, and DXY TrendsGreetings Traders, In today's trading session, our attention is focused on AUDUSD, where we are actively monitoring for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66200 zone. As AUDUSD navigates an uptrend, the ongoing correction phase positions it in proximity to the trend at the 0.66200 support and resistance area. This in-depth analysis will explore the fundamental landscape, drawing insights from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data, and connecting this idea to the previously discussed DXY analysis. Starting with the FOMC decisions, the most recent meeting held on December 13, 2023, maintained the interest rate at 2.00%. The dovish stance articulated by the Federal Reserve underscores their commitment to accommodating economic growth while navigating inflationary pressures. This has broader implications for AUDUSD, as a weaker USD often contributes to the strength of commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar. Analyzing the CPI data for AUDUSD, the inflation rate in Australia has shown resilience. The most recent figures for Q4 2023 indicate a 2.0% year-over-year increase. This steady inflation, coupled with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, can contribute to a positive environment for AUDUSD, potentially supporting its upward trajectory. Linking this idea to the previously discussed DXY analysis is crucial. DXY, representing the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, exhibits an inverse relationship with AUDUSD. As DXY weakens, AUDUSD tends to strengthen, creating a favorable environment for a buying opportunity. Traders should monitor DXY movements for additional insights into the potential direction of AUDUSD. Examining interest rate differentials between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve adds another layer to this analysis. As of the latest available data, the RBA's cash rate is at 0.10%, significantly lower than the Federal Reserve's 2.00%. This interest rate gap can further contribute to the attractiveness of AUDUSD for investors seeking higher yields. Considering the overall economic backdrop, Australia's strong ties to commodity exports, particularly in metals and minerals, can enhance the appeal of the Australian Dollar. As global economic conditions improve, the demand for commodities may rise, positively impacting AUDUSD. In conclusion, as we explore a buying opportunity in AUDUSD around the 0.66200 zone, the interplay of FOMC decisions, CPI data, and the inverse relationship with DXY provides a comprehensive understanding. Traders should remain vigilant, considering the broader market context, and keep an eye on DXY movements for nuanced insights into the potential direction of AUDUSD. Best of luck in your trades, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
2