Get started

Fomcminutes

Will the RBA hike boost the Aussie?We are seeing plenty of volatility from the Australian dollar. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6883 in European trade, up 0.98% on the day. The Australian dollar has recovered most of its losses from Friday, when the pair slipped 1.28%. All eyes are on the RBA, which holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday. The meeting is live, as it's not clear if the Bank will raise rates by 25bp or 50bp. The most likely scenario is a 50-bp move, with the cash rate at a low 0.85%. A supersize 75bp move is a possibility but unlikely, and would likely give the Aussie a short-lived jump - the markets remain jittery in the current environment which will make it difficult for AUD/USD to claw back to the symbolic 70 level. Inflation remains the RBA's paramount concern. The inflation rate of 5.1% is among the lowest in the OECD and well below the UK and US, which are running close to double digits. Still, there is no sign of Australia's inflation peaking, and that has the RBA worried about inflation expectations becoming unanchored. There are no indications of a recession, but GDP in Q1 slowed significantly to 0.8%, compared to a robust 3.6% in the fourth quarter. If the RBA continues to deliver 50bp rate hikes, economic activity will slow and negative growth would become a very real possibility. US markets are closed for a holiday, but things will heat up during the week, with the FOMC releasing the minutes of its June meeting. The Fed appears intent on continuing to raise rates aggressively, with Fed Chair Powell saying last week that curbing inflation was his primary task right now. Last week Powell said it was important to prevent inflation expectations from becoming anchored, adding that restoring price stability was paramount, even if that mean negative growth. On Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicated that the US is likely already in a recession, with the economy contracting by 2.1% in Q2, which together with the Q1 decline of 1.6% would mean the economy is in recession. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6849. Above, there is resistance at 0.6933 There is support at 0.6732 and 0.6648
by OANDA
ES | FOMC Price Action 5/25/2022The May 3, 2022 FOMC Meeting minutes was released 5/25/2022, which is another opportunity for Market Makers to swing price around violently and take out liquidity. We knew the obvious target would be the Buyside Liquidity at ES 3982.25. This level was the only major liquidity level in the nearby area. Also, after taking Buyside Liquidity price would continue going down as it has been for several weeks. So this case made logical sense. And that is exactly what happened. ES whipsawed up and down to take out the local liquidity levels before then going up to take out 3982.25. But it didn’t stop there. Price also completely closed the daily Fair Value Gap which means there are no more reasons for price to go up any further. In my opinion, ES continues its march down for a while.
CME_MINI:ESM2022
by Infinity_Trading_
Canadian dollar higher on retail salesThe Canadian dollar hasn't made any spectacular daily gains since May 13th, when it shot up 1.1%. The currency has, however, made slow but steady progress against its US cousin. Earlier today, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.2731, its lowest level in three weeks. Canada's retail sales for March helped the Canadian dollar rally on Thursday. The headline figure was virtually unchanged, but core retail sales rose 1.5%. According to StatsCan, retail sales jumped 3.0% in Q1, its highest level since Q3 2020. Consumers continue to spend despite red-hot inflation, but if consumers decide to tighten the purse strings, the economy would likely take a hit and drag the Canadian dollar lower. The US dollar finds itself under pressure as risk appetite has rebounded. Investors were pleased with the FOMC minutes, as the Fed signalled that it planned to press ahead with 50-bps rate increases in June and July, which soothed concerns about a possible massive 75-bps hike. This gave the equity markets a boost and sent the greenback lower. The US economy may not be in a recession, but negative growth in the first quarter is certainly a concern. Second-estimate GDP came in at -1.5% QoQ, shy of the estimate of -1.3% and revised downwards from the initial estimate of -1.4%. Growth in Q1 was hampered by a surge in Omicron as well as the Ukraine war. One bright spot was solid consumer spending, which remains strong in the face of spiralling inflation. Consumer spending, as gauged by PCE expenditures, rose 3.1% in Q1, up from 2.7% prior. The markets are keeping a close eye on Personal Spending and Personal Income, which will be released later today. The economy is expected to rebound in Q2, but could be much lower than the rosy GDP numbers we saw after the US economy reopened. There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2750. Below, there is support at 1.2661
by OANDA
1
AUD drifting ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar started the week with gains of close to one percent but has been mostly drifting since then. AUD/USD is trading quietly, just below the 0.71 line. It hasn't been a very good week on the Australian release front, raising concerns that the economy may be slowing down. Manufacturing and Services PMIs both slowed in May, while Construction Work Done and Private New Capital Expenditure both recorded declines in the first quarter. The week winds up with April Retail Sales on Friday, which is projected to slow to 0.9%, after a 1.6% in March. Australia releases GDP next week, and an underperforming release would likely dampen sentiment towards the Australian dollar. The new Labour government is rolling up its sleeves after its election victory and getting to work. Both Labour and the defeated Liberal party made campaign promises to review RBA operations, including how it targets inflation. The new Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says he will announce his findings shortly. Chalmers said on Wednesday that he had inherited "very tricky" economic conditions, including rising inflation and interest rates, and a massive trillion-dollar debt. The FOMC minutes didn't contain any surprises, which actually soothed nervous markets. Investors have become increasingly concerned that the US economy might tip into recession. Recent data, such as housing, has been weak, while at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle aimed at slowing the economy and containing inflation. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest such a drastic move, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and on inflation levels. 0.7118 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7196 There is support at 0.6996 and 0.6918
by OANDA
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!FOMC – 16/03/22 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to use the 1H chart for todays FOMC Report and will say that we’ll stick with this for the remainder of the sessions, unless anything changes. As usual we’ll give our daily updates and levels with our latest thoughts and ideas. We can see the market reacting to any news coming out of Russia/Ukraine which is causing traders difficulty in trying to swing trade this to the upside. We expecting this to give a push up at some point, whether that’s today or not remains to be seen. The key levels here are 1889 and 1870 below with the higher levels being 1937-40 and above that the 1950-60 level which would fill the imbalance. So as usual we’ll look at this with 2 scenarios in mind with our bias being to the upside at the moment! Scenario 1: They push the price down, we’ll wait for the levels of 1880 and breaking that 1860-65 before testing the long trade back up to target the 1920-30 price point initially. We feel it will go higher if it comes back up so we’ll look to protect any trades we get good entries on and take partials along the way. We have a KOG target at 1885 which we’re not far from so there’s a chance we may hit that. Scenario 2: They push the price up, we will only be looking for extreme key levels in this scenario to short the market. There is a chance they will want to test at least that 1950-60 level so we’ll wait there to short the market back down. It’s facing difficult and extreme market conditions which are being driven by fear. We’ve maintained we will take it easy and trade this level to level which has worked very well for us this month. What we don’t want to do is get stuck in trades if this decides to move and give any profits back to the market. For that reason we would say please trade this safely, reduce your lots sizes and give yourself time to think about your entry and exit. Always have a risk strategy in place and if you’re not comfortable with it please stay out. Cash is also a position, the markets won’t be like this forever. There is of course the case that this is likely priced in and we don’t see much movement so please also keep that in mind. It all depends on the question and answer session which will be after the release. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
EUR/USD SELL SIGNAL #RISKYHey tradomaniacs, welcome to a new free trading-setup. EUR/USD: Daytrade-Execution🔁 Notice: A trade I personally take! This is a FOMC-Based trade and involves very high risk! Technically a good one here but news can cause huge volatility! Please stay out of you don`t have a higher risk-aversion. Market-Sell-Order: 1,17700 Stop-Loss: 1,18030 Target 1: 1,17380 Target 2: 1,17100 Target 3: 1,16760 Target for One-Target-Trader: 1,17100 Stop-Loss: 34 pips Risk: 0,5% Risk-Reward: 2,73 LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
Short
by Trading2ez
3
GOLD 1 live 2 die, decide FOMC interest rate .In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke introduced a number of unconventional policies, including Quantitative Easing, one of the most controversial programs in the history of central banking…but the more lasting and undeniably effective policy has been ushering in the era of “communication-as-a-policy-tool.” Over the past decade, there have been 83 FOMC meetings, with the interest rate decisions and market-implied pricing playing out in the following way: In 72 meetings, the market was anticipating no interest rate change, and the Fed left rates unchanged. In 9 meetings, the market was expecting a 25bps hike and the Fed delivered a 25bps hike. In 2 meetings (July and September), the market was expecting a 25bps cut and the Fed delivered a 25bps cut. In other words, the Fed hasn’t gone against the market’s pre-meeting “conventional wisdom” even once in the past decade. With traders pricing in a 96% chance of a 25bps rate cut tomorrow according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the FOMC will almost certainly cut interest rates 25bps and run the streak to 84 consecutive meetings. traders will key in on the committee’s characterization of international trade in the wake of progress between the US and China on trade, as well as any comments about the recently-slowing growth in job creation. In addition, the central bank’s decision last month featured three dissents (Bullard in favor of a 50bps cut, and George/Rosengren in favor of leaving rates steady); any further “dissension in the ranks” would introduce an element of uncertainty to the future outlook for policy. Analysis GOLD H4 is moving in a triangle, the amplitude is quite wide and has not broken through the upper and lower border. However, with the formation of lower peaks on the H4 time frame, yesterday candle closed below the strong resistance zone, h1 h4. All are present for the upcoming GOLD price drop. H1 appears the supply zone in the discount channel. However there is strong news today. GOLD sell 1496-1497 SL 1500 TP 1480 Buy GOLD around 1474-1476 SL 1472 TP 1490 Trade Safe
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MCHTRADING
5
Tracking current levels like a hawk... => What is in play here? => To put it simply we are tracking two scenarios... the market is currently trading against strong resistance and we need to get above this area to avoid it becoming a very large triangle. => If we look at the recovery since August, we can see that this move has been impulsive and increases the odds for the break to the topside. => The only levels in play to track here are 20.92-21.03 which are the June highs. We see potential for this to extend as high as 21.4x and therefore any pullback towards 20.0x should be viewed as corrective. => For bears, they need to break 19.833 to question that we have already put in the highs of the year and decade. => In our books, there is opportunity in adding exposure on the upside towards 21.0x and eventually 21.4x. => Stops can be held tightly below 19.80x as a break below here will reshuffle the cards. => Best of luck to those already in live or looking to build positions here.
Long
by ridethepig
GOLD: wasn't the FED bullish on US Economy?Hi Guys, at its meeting of the 1st of August (X) the FED did not increase interest rates but its accompanying statements in the following 16 days became more and more hawkish and value dropped to 1160 (A). Price bounced and, following the release of the FED Minutes, it formed a ZigZag to test resistence (B). What happened next is a combined horizontal pattern which ended with the FED Meeting of the 26th of September which raised its key interest rate for the third time in 2018 and signaled one more hike in 2018, most likely in December stating that the "accomodative" era is over (C). And from C the precious metal has been rising up to X again. Hope you like. Thank you for your attention, and please share your views and comments. Any idea is a contribution for a better understanding of The Matrix. Good Night! Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*** Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
FOMC trading idea.. Davinci systemMy idea to trade the FOMC today is as follows.. It's based on a system I was taught a long time a go by my mentor. I use it for NFP, and it works perfectly. It's called the Davinci system.. The trendlines you see are based on a rolling 20 bar high/low, and the false break reversal. Basically, when price breaks a trendline, and comes back to it and goes 10 pips above/below the trendline, you enter the trade. So if price breaks this trendline right now @ 1.22606 (which at the time of writing was tested) we will wait for the candle/bar to come back to it and break it in the other direction by 10 pips, and enter your trade. Same if it breaks at the other trendline @ 1.22961 Stop loss is 30 pip from trigger point TP( will depend on your risk/reward) I use Weekly fibonacci points I calculate manually. You'll see them in the pic. PS.. Perfect scenario will be that eurusd rises and breaks top trendline, come back to it breaks it again, enter short, and take profit around 1.22068 or lower.. Good luck!!! I welcome your comments! OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by e0615
1
SELL EURUSD/ LONG USD, DXY: HAWKISH FED GEORGE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSIMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low and that the missed June hike was merely due "timing issues".. could these timing issue be corrected in July? Unlikely given the Brexit result (likely if the vote was bremain), but nonetheless this was more than encouraging. On the wider economy George remained upbeat, highlighting last weeks NFP report as "welcomed news", and in the medium term reaffirming that "pace of job market growth has been notable" and "economy nearing full employment. The only downers were his comments regarding business investment which he said was "weak" but after went on to assure that "outside of energy, business investment levels were better". Further, he cited that brexit issues were "longer run" uncertainties that the FOMC will watch. Federal Funds Rate Implied Hike/ Cut Probability curve updates: On the back of the strong 100k+ beat NFP print last week, going into this week we have seen an aggressive steepening in the Fed Funds implied prob curve across the tenors; Fridays steepening trend has continued into this week, where now a September/ Nov Hike trades at 12%/11.8% vs 5.9%/5.9% on Friday and 0%/0% on Thursday, with a Dec hike trading at 29.6% vs 22.5% Friday. - This aggressive steepening, especially in the front end (where probabilities have doubled), is likely a function of FOMC member Georges Hawkish comments today, the NFP print and the aggressive recovery in risk across the board in the past few days which have all collectively improved confidence, which in turn has eased sell-side pressure on UST rates - today 10y UST rates have managed to trade 4.4% higher on the day (tnx), with 30y yields also up +0.95% - this is the first real break of downside pressure we have seen in rates for the past month. Trading strategy: 1. The above combined has helped my broad long $ view with my favourite expressions short term being in NZD$ and AUD$ downside (See attached posts). In the medium term, EUR$ and $JPY dollar upside are my favourite trades for the risk-on element that will readjust the USD higher in the backend of this year (see attached posts); And the Monetary policy divergence + brexit uncertainty that should bring EUR$ to a lower equilibrium in the future also. Alternatively, this view can be aggregated as pictured into a long DXY play, where imo, it trades 3-4% below equilibrium - index should be near 100. FOMC Member George Speech Highlights : -Fed's George: June Jobs Data Was 'Welcome News' -Fed's George: U.S. Economy Has Proved 'Resilient' -Fed's George: Expects to See 'Fairly Steady Pace of Growth' -Fed's George: Consumers Strong, But Business Investment Weak -Fed's George: Outside of Energy, Business Investment Levels Better -Fed's George: Pace Of Job Market Growth Has Been Noteworthy -Fed's George: Economy Close to Full Employment -Fed's George: Labor Market Recovery Not Evenly Shared by Workers -Fed's George: Labor Pressured by Loss of Middle Skilled Jobs -Fed's George: Fed Policy Limited in Role For Long Term Labor Trends -Fed's George: Fed Rates Are 'Too Low' -Fed's George: Fed Should Raise Rates Gradually -Fed's George: Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to 'Timing Issues' -Fed's George: Brexit Issues Are Longer Run Items to Watch
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3