USD/CHF: Daytrade-Opportunity and plan for FOMC!Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free signal of Week 44 Nr. 3
Important: Wait for the retracement up to the entry and wait for a rejection before you sell.
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Type: Day_Swingtrade
Market Sell: 0,99467
Stop-Loss: 0,99580
Target 1: 0,99333
Target 2: 0,99178
Target 3: 0,99026
Stop-Loss: 11.3 pips
Risk: 1-2%
Risk-Reward: 3,83
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Fomcpositioning
USDZAR - FOMC Meeting today! (RAND Trade)FX:USDZAR
OVERVIEW
- Price is sitting below the Kumo cloud and Tenkan-sen below Kijun-sen (bearish)
- Chikou span has broken through kumo and we have a bearish twist of kumo = bearish bias on the pair
- A falling wedge has developed with and oversold stochastic which could ignite a move to R15 level . (bullish)
- We will be waiting for the FOMC rate decision tonight to take any further trades on the pair. A move below R14.50 will target the double top measured move.
- Movement in the pair affects many of the JSE's listed stocks.
- MANAGE YOUR RISK -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
Gold - Upcoming Fed Meeting and Negative Yield InsuranceAs my last forecast has shown, gold has had quite a lovely run up in light of the rate cut delivered from Jay Powell Gold soared towards $1,600/ ounce and stopped just shy at $1,570/ ounce.
With the September FOMC decision looming the question is what the yellow metal will do next?
A rate cut is all but certain, with a 25bp cut baked in at this point, a 50bp cut is possible but the chances are lower (not impossible mind you).
This rate cut is likely to do two things
- Push bond prices higher and yields lower (I will also elaborate on a potential play on bonds )
- Drive gold up as bond yields creep closer to zero (Europe is already at zero and the US is the last major bastion of 'safety')
The impact on silver is more uncertain, as rates are also a measure of productivity in general and silver is primarily an industrial metal, long-term silver looks good, but bear in mind it does not respond the same as gold.
The gold price near-term is impossible to predict, but lower rates and near zero yielding bonds means only one thing...higher gold prices.
We could see some consolidation going into the FOMC meeting, at which point gold would be poised to make another leg up (although on the longer time-frames gold is a little overextended) or we could see a short lived selloff.
In any case, if you have yet to position yourself for a negative yielding world, best to do so now
Tracking current levels like a hawk... => What is in play here?
=> To put it simply we are tracking two scenarios... the market is currently trading against strong resistance and we need to get above this area to avoid it becoming a very large triangle.
=> If we look at the recovery since August, we can see that this move has been impulsive and increases the odds for the break to the topside.
=> The only levels in play to track here are 20.92-21.03 which are the June highs. We see potential for this to extend as high as 21.4x and therefore any pullback towards 20.0x should be viewed as corrective.
=> For bears, they need to break 19.833 to question that we have already put in the highs of the year and decade.
=> In our books, there is opportunity in adding exposure on the upside towards 21.0x and eventually 21.4x.
=> Stops can be held tightly below 19.80x as a break below here will reshuffle the cards.
=> Best of luck to those already in live or looking to build positions here.
FOMC trading idea.. Davinci systemMy idea to trade the FOMC today is as follows..
It's based on a system I was taught a long time a go by my mentor. I use it for NFP, and it works perfectly. It's called the Davinci system.. The trendlines you see are based on a rolling 20 bar high/low, and the false break reversal.
Basically, when price breaks a trendline, and comes back to it and goes 10 pips above/below the trendline, you enter the trade. So if price breaks this trendline right now @ 1.22606 (which at the time of writing was tested) we will wait for the candle/bar to come back to it and break it in the other direction by 10 pips, and enter your trade. Same if it breaks at the other trendline @ 1.22961
Stop loss is 30 pip from trigger point
TP( will depend on your risk/reward) I use Weekly fibonacci points I calculate manually. You'll see them in the pic.
PS.. Perfect scenario will be that eurusd rises and breaks top trendline, come back to it breaks it again, enter short, and take profit around 1.22068 or lower..
Good luck!!!
I welcome your comments! OANDA:EURUSD
TELL ME HOW YOU TRADE THE FOMCTomorrow is FOMC and Federal Funds Rate.
Previous - 1.50%
Forecast - 1.75%
Tradeable Deviation - 0.25%
If Actual - 1.50% weak dollar
If Actual - 1.75% strong dollar
EURUSD can move in 2H after news 70+ pips
EURUSD 90%+ directional match following news direction
FOREX TRADERS - DO YOU EVEN TRADE FOMC IF SO HOW DO YOU DO IT?
$ilver Technical Analysis: Bulli$h Breakout$ilver is trading inside of a symmetric triangle. These triangles are continuation patterns 75% of the time. The triangle should break higher or lower within the next couple of weeks. In addition, an inverse head and shoulders is also in play. My play on this move is TAHO, BCEKF, FSM and HL. LOCKED AND LOADED BABY. FOMC day is next Wednesday at 2:00pm ET. This decision could decided which way $ilver will breakout. I am BULLI$H.
Here is information on symmetric triangles and inverse head and shoulder patterns:
Symmetric triangle: stockcharts.com
Inverse head and shoulder:https://www.investopedia.com/…/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp
Watching 1300-1295 area for a long entry before FOMC meeting.Blue vertical lines are a day before FOMC interest rate raises.
Seem to be stuck under the .382 of the fib channel, which could signal more downside.
RSI in the middle but pointing down.
TSI under zero which signals to stay short.
I am short looking towards the 1300-1295 area to enter a long position before we go up after FOMC announcement (based off of past interest rate increases, and if the FED decides to raise).
However, the blue lines show correlation and not causation.
This means that even though gold rallied after the FED raised interest rates during their FOMC meetings, it does not mean that it will do it this time as well, or that the rallies were directly caused by the interest rate increases–even though the charts seem to be biased towards this effect.
EUR/USD FOMC ForecastHello Traders,
The market is in a range with price action lacking a firm direction and clearly waiting for a fundamental factor to drive it in either direction. The FOMC meeting tomorrow will be such a driver and we have two outcomes below along with our rationale.
Outcome 1 - Rate Hike and Bullish Press Conference - 65% Likelihood: We favour a bullish statement and press conference from the FED given Donald Trump has signalled pro business policy and major infrastructure spending. We believe that this will put pressure on the FED to act now and raise rates to accommodate expected economic growth over Trumps first 100 days in office where his policies will be announced and actioned.
Outcome 2 - No Hike and Dovish Press Conference - 35% Likelihood: Looking at the chart the market is waiting for direction. In the face of Trumps bullish growth ambitions the market is still undecided on the direction of the FOMC. We then keep our options open on a surge in the Euro as this outcome would mean the FED don't follow the President-Elects view of increased economic growth through infrastructure spending and pro business policies.
How to trade: We suggest orders placed on the fringes of the blue box in either direction with small risk stop losses, it's likely price will surge in either direction on the rate decision and statement.
Price will then fluctuate during the press conference however it is likely the comments in the conference will be supportive of whichever direction price moves after the rate decision.
POSSIBLE BEARISH CONTINUATION AUD/USD A break of the counter trend line that has formed on AUD/USD could lead to a downside continuation to make new lows. The move also has the possibility to offer a decent risk reward as well. Targets would be 0.71571 and then on to 0.69609 . Could this be a look into the future for this market ahead of the FOMC tomorrow? Only time will tell.
AUDUSD could retrace to 0.73/0.725 on a close below 0.7450Australia dollar is starting to retrace its gains after flirting with 0.750 resistance. A bearish close today below 0.745 could see the declines extending back to the price zone of 0.73 - 0.725. Establishing support here could pave way for a new leg in the rally back to 0.745 and eventually to 0.76.