BCH Long for the fork!Thanks to BCH we have a bull market for the next two weeks. Binance is going to be honoring the Hardfork BCH is having so people are going to buy and hold this to get the free coins. Look on a lower timeframe for entry. Don't short this unless it breaks the trendline, you will get rekt. Buy hold for 2 weeks then try short the top.
Levels of interest
Fomo
BCH LONG suggestion - Big longterm Position THIS IS INVERTED CHART
Been accumulating alot of coins at 410-420 range for months ( NO LEVERAGE )
based on strategy macro chart HIGH RR longterm trade:
- strong Reversal/Enter Signal = at 506USD Break
- STOP LOSS: 400USD
- Profit Target: 751USD
All my trades are based on PROBABILITY and NO PREDICTION. I dont use fundamentals because i dont care !
Charts create the news imo.
Not letting go of my eth shortI've caught most of the pumps that have taken place over the last few days. I must say if you blink you probably miss most of them. However these bursts of volume cause all indicators to look differently than if they hadn't happened. This must be considered when analyzing price action. I'm still bearish on ethereum and added near the top of the last pump. I may take a loss on this trade but I've accepted the risk. I'm holding somewhat longterm or whenever my targets are reached. Eth/btc ratio near all time lows, if BTC were to pump hard or dump I believe ETH will experience further decay against BTC.
However it is possible that this is a double bottom on the ratio. If BTC were to dump and make a lower high on weekly the rest of the market would be pulled down with that. I'm expecting to see money come out of alts first if this happens as many of them have experienced large gains over the last week.
Looking at margin positions, BTC shorts have finally started to peel back as longs have increased. ETH shorts completely melted over the last week and are heading down to near all time lows as Longs are still way up. Margin Longs on ETH indicate there was lots of accumulation as well as the volume on the weekly. In fact the weekly volume for ETH shows volume to be at yearly all time highs. This could be misleading. I've watched most of the recents pumps live and the amount of buying that happened in seconds each time ETH was starting to look weak is astounding.
It's possible that someone or a group of people are trying to keep it alive by painting the chart bullish and protecting key support levels. Almost like they are trying to induce fomo.
Overall still in a downtrend on higher time frames. I expect this wave up to run out of gas soon. I'll link more charts from different time frames to show you what I see.
Bitcoin and Ethereum - can you exploit FOMO? This is well beyond technical analysis - into the domain of human psychology.
In this video I theorise on exploiting FOMO - which is psychological phenomenon - instead of just being a victim of it. I look briefly at Ehterium as well.
An important thing for all markets is that the point of greatest fear is also the point of greatest opportunity.
Please note that I am not predicting anything. I totally expect price to crash as well. All I can do is control my loss.
Supplemental: Microtends and risk aversion
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Update on today! BS!I did an entire 10min video but it didnt record well on TradingView.
Basically, that pump WHALISH behavior.
They are at it again.
However, price is sitting on support as per noodle 1 and 2.
With no buying volume between 6375 and $6150 , a close under 6351 will cause a glorious drop.
A little longerterm 3H, price for now remains down. With this current jump being a minor distraction..
I currently have no positions open as the market needs to show its true intent.
Safe trading,
FIBAUS
BITCOIN : Load the FOMO train, capitulation comingHuge bearish divergence forming on 4Hr.
BTC Overbought on daily for the first time since December.
BTC Dominance at all time high since 8 months.
Alts bleeding hard, everybody selling to put money in BTC, making BTC break important key levels, to make people think bull run has started.
No retracement since the completion of inverse H&S.
People buying anticipating ETF Decision.
My point of view ? BTC is going to consolidate for the rest of the week. Probably going to 8.4k$ maximum. Might see some whicks above, but that will be it. Then we will see a huge sell off leading to capitulation. THEN, Bull run will be able to start.
100% Cryptosaurus Rex Certified.
Bad news for CowsPeople selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin (ETF FOMO), Alts going down and down but bitcoin price doesn't increase? My guess is whales selling their bitcoin right now to this ETF FOMO and when nobody expect it they short the whole market to buy their bitcoin back at a discounted price
Bitcoin - not for meI'm out of it. I'm not getting into FOMO.
Based on my own methodology, I'm not happy with stop-losses. So that's it.
For me, I have to consider my stop-losses as 'gone'. That's money I'm willing to throw away on the chance that I'm wrong. So I'm not happy with the losses between 2H and 1D time frames.
Gamblers who want to win a single trade may get involved. I'm not gambling.
THE NEVER ENDING BULL MARKET ... 2020 - "MAKE BULLS THICK AGAIN"Okay, another look. We've been in a long bull market since 2009.. but theres been a few pauses/staggers and consolidations along the way.. Almost like multiple micro bull markets inside an overall market huge thick bull ball market.
A bull has a big big thick phallic connotation, make no mistake this is designed like that on purpose-- the thickness and girth coupled with the unrivaled desire for more that comes from a Bull's personality is truly a testament to the forces of nature.. something about moon phases & fibonaccis here.
But if you look in 2015 we hit a little snag and traded sideways before megla DON got in office and made America great.. (tony the tiger needs royalties).. If you take that fractal an apply it to these recent snag here ("The Unwinding") and you can see that we very may well be on pace to "Bringing SVXY back" (oh come on you know you liked that one ).
This means we should keep chugging until 2020 and see SPX 3,000 somewhere end of 4th quarter 2018 . January 2019 we should see a dump from this July-Dec run.
Any millennial hedge fund managers remaining who happened to make it thru the e VIX tion wipeout earlier this year, congrats! Be prepared and ready to enjoy another 6 months of "Buy calls every day until im balling out enough to run my own paid group"
Enjoy
A new relief rally?So BTC broke through the downtrend resistance and it seems that we'll be pumping for a while.
Weekly and 3d is oversold, so this pump had to happen at some point.
I am just surprised that there hasn't been a shakeout dump before that, only a slow grind down. Quite boring for BTC actually.
And that despite that quite high longs. Well, that was an interesting surprise.
I think we'll be headed back to 8k territory, and then at some point the bearmarket will resume again. This is a bearmarket relief rally and nothing more imho. We're not done yet with this bearmarekt, target still remains 3k imho.
However, I am switching to short term long.
Bitcoin - how to lose your money - demonstration of FOMOThis is on BTCUSD on the Daily time frame. I get right into my own psychology and explain what I'm feeling terms of FOMO.
I point out how the FOMO mentality causes people to lose big money. I've put on a paper trade, to explain this.
Note that ESMA and the NCA's have pointed out that:
... trading across different EU jurisdictions shows that 74-89% of retail accounts typically lose money on their investments , with average losses per client ranging from €1,600 to €29,000.
Did you get that? if you're a new trader your chance of losing a substantial part of your account is up to 90%!!
We're talking about serious risks in all trading. But where is the risk coming from? It's about a majority of traders having a psychological framework that cannot cope with chaos and uncertainty.
Loads of traders are preoccupied with winning a single trade or not missing what they think is a good opportunity. They're largely influenced, as well by big media and 'forum talk'.
Profitability depends on a consistent approach, avoiding the lure of bandwagons heading in one direction, missing on what turns out to be 'good trades', but controlling loss (the only real control we have).
Just to be clear - I have pointed out the dangers. I have not said that people should not enter on Bitcoin. I actually said if they want to do so, it's better with a carefully managed risk on a much lower time frame. Nothing in here is advice, even if you think of it as such.
I predict nothing.
Bitcoin could have a near-death experience driven by FOMOIn this video I argue that there could be a limited price reversal on Bitcoin.
This is about people who missed out before the big pump, thinking or fearing that they don't want to miss out the 'next time around'.
So that lot pre-October 2017, are likely to jump in over the next few days or weeks. This is human nature.
Caution: I predict nothing! I'm doing something different. I'm looking at the psychology of markets and some reversal possibilities. But if price goes north it's about following a reversal trend for as far as it will go.
Why BTC fractals are not always trustworthyHello!
In this chart I'd like to show that you can find nice fractals everywhere, because fundamentally markets are driven by human mass psychology and since this mass psychology doesn't change, the patterns also repeat.
But are they always to be trusted? No. One has to look at a lot of different factors and check if the situation now is similar to the situation of the comparison fractal.
In our case here, many people expect a nice pump like the one in the beginning of april.
However, even though the pattern before the pump looks very similar, the market conditions now are quite different.
One has to realize, that whales play the market in order to make nice profit with leveraged longs and shorts. It is very easy if you have a lot of coins. You look at the ratio longs vs shorts. If for example one is much higher than the other, i.e. shorts much highter than longs,
you can create a short squeeze, with one strong buy. This triggers a cascade of shorts that are closed, forcing the price higher, closing even more shorts, a short squeeze. Those whales wentl leveraged long before that, and made some nice profit, and sell their coins alter for
a higher price, because the ensuing FOMO drives the price even higher. A win win for them.
However, as you can see, now the situation is quite different. Leveraged shorts are much lower, in fact, the longs are much highter than the shorts. This means that one should not count on a short squeeze like the one beginning of April.
From looking at the overbought 4 hour and 1 day stoch RSI, a declining price is more likely. I say more likely, because one can only speak in probabilities here. I give a 70% chance that we grind down, and a 30% chance that we still go up, despite high longs.
When trading BTC, it is always good to look at the long/short ratio, because then you have a good overview of the general market sentiment, which is more bullish than bearish now. And most of the time it is good to do the opposite of what most people do, hehe XD.
Since I like doing the opposite of most people, I have a moderate short position open atm.
USDTRY - Be wary of Intervention ex-post Rapid MovesTraders layering into TRY potentially got burnt last week as the Turkish Central Bank intervened to halt the local currency's worrying devaluation by raising interest rates by a whopping 3%
Whilst i tend to let the majority of fundamental data pass me by , it often pays to atleast maintain a health awareness of key macro factors that might have a direct impact on any currency pairs you are trading or tracking (this is different to following any random commentator's subjective opinion)
While I do not like setting upside targets , it can pay to trail stops at healthy profit levels during large abnormal moves so as not to give back profits (we saw this in crypto in Dec 17) adn if we miss the big move initially wait for natural pullbacks / consolidations rather than chase an entry. There will ALWAYS be a pullback or another instruments that will offer the next big move. Worst thing to do is chase an entry through FOMO , get burnt and then be paralysed the next time a big opportunity presents itself.
Stay rational, stay calm and nimble
LSK Breakout is imminent.LSK has hovered around 120 support for far too long.
Current price of 115-116 is a bargain. Don't let this opportunity slip out of your hands.
Is one of the best holds for 2018. Could see it reaching this years ATH in a couple months.
What's stopping LSK and other good projects is BTC.
BTC starts running, ALTs will follow.
There will be LAMBOS after NXS Moon!This is a Weekly Chart. Any guesses where its headed?
I've been watching it for a while now.
The bounce from support is now confirmed. This is a solid buy imo for Long term. Buy now and put sell orders at 100-250% and forget about it.
I just bought some and gonna hold for atleast 1 month. Maybe 2.
Oh and Previous weekly Candle was a BUY according to my FOMO Indicator (Blue candle).
Look what happened to its price after blue candles on weekly chart.
BTC short at some PointI know, its obvious BTC will fall again. Am i a wizard? No, that's not the point, everyone knows it will fall again. I just want to tell you, if you are in Tether right now: don't FOMO! Look at the Graph i did, everytime BTC was "mooning" maximum 20 days later it was at the price it was as the Mooning began or near that. Be patient and don't FOMO, you will regret it! you maybe missed this rally, but trust me, the next will come! be strong! :)
Good luck everyone and please leave a upvote if you want to, so i can discuss your and my ideas in the chat! :)
** This is a positive scenario for Bitcoin! ** If Bitcoin decides what direction to go(up), it may react quickly. We can see the new ATH before the end of June. After a little correction, the real FOMO starts and for the time being we can still see the prices that seem so extreme. ~$30K and then ~$70K. The economic depression in the world may also be effective in this scenario. After all this a grand correction will be waiting for us.
There may be a negative scenario! Stay tuned!
See you end of the year.