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Bitcoin reversal? How to start entering long After a long and brutal decline Bitcoin has shown a reversal on the 30m chart. Double digit gains in 2 hours started the reversal (6100 to 6900). While it is easy to see these short squeezes, ist hard to enter at the right places! I want to show you how to start entering long in a possible reversal without FOMO (fear of missing out). After prices hit 6900 and broke the downtrend, BTC moved down again in a short term trend channel. Two big questions arise now: a) Do we get a new low, which is often to be expected after a trendline break? b) Or will we get a higher low and establish a working uptrend channel , indicating a reversal? In the chart I have marked with blue arrows the candles at which decision could be made regarding the two questions. At these points you can enter long: Long 1 +3: Prices bounce up at important levels, indicating a valid uptrend line. Simultaneously the short term downtrends are broken. Both entries are a little more aggressive but have the biggest upside potential. More details I described in the chart. Long 2 +4: Here we can already see prices moving up in a steep new uptrend. Furthermore a second attempt to go down inside the trend failed, which is a failed second entry short. This traps some shorts and leads to more buying pressure. This is a little difficult to see on the 30m timeframe here, but if you look closely at the shape of the candles you can spot it. On a lower time frame (15m) it would be easier to see. What is happening right now? Prices have reached the 7800 level, which is the resistance level and former breakout area. All shorts from the prior strong downtrend have now seen their breakeven stops (or trailing stops) hit. Prices could not go higher an started a new downtrend channel. Is this the end of the uptrend already? No, at the time of writing BTC pushed higher, breaking the downtrend. This could be a bear trap and we might see a new high. Prices above 8.000 would probably trigger a lot of stops from shorts.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FBlocktrader
2
4 Years of BTC and herd mentality in one chartHey guys, as you've seen on my previous forecasts on BTC and XRP, I've started to accumulate and increase my holdings. Besides the technicals, my bias is getting even more long biased due to the massive pessimism around inexperienced traders and overall media coverage. As you can see on the chart above, this is not the first time the world has witnessed such a huge drop on BTC. Back in 2014, when the total crypto market cap has dropped below 5 billion USD due to a massive sell off of -87%, the web was full of articles saying that Bitcoin is about to collapse. That it will end.During this phase, we've also witnessed the MtGox affair and the start of some regulatory talk. Some university professors and asset managers begun to throw out predictions that BTC will hit $10. Once price has started to recover, you've suddenly heard nothing more from these people. The sentiment has been switched to "keep our mouths shut" till BTC slowly gained bullish momentum again. What happened then? The very same newspapers and magazines started to write articles that BTC is now "hip" again and it might become a big thing in the future. As soon as price started to really rocket, the very same procedure has started again. Jamie Dimon/CEO of JPMorgan, marketwatch.com, CNBC journalists and many others listed thousands of reasons why Bitcoin is bad, risky, a fraud and of course why we all should stay away from it. Guess what happened when the price started to drop again in January? Right. The very same thing. There is no "this time it's different". This market is still in its infancy and yes, there are other coins that might become the crypto #1 but no one knows when it will happen and we shouldn't actually care about, because for now we clearly see a heavy BTC dependance on other alts - despite the diminishing BTC dominance. Long story short - I think it's extremely important to never, really never fall for any catching armageddon crypto headline out there. I am actually using all this as an contrarian indicator, meaning that a peak in both, heavy optimism and pessimism regarding cryptos should be a warning sign. People just went crazy in France a week ago or so, because some stores have been offering Nutella and diapers for a 70% discount. This thing has escalated so quickly that they've had to call the police. On the other hand, when people are been offering to increase their crypto holdings to buy back at a heavily discounted price of more than 70% , people are scared to death and even sell(!!!) their holdings with a massive loss. I mean..that's just insane. It's not about having the most accurate entry or exit. Think of Michael Burry (The Big Short) or other investment funds who act during or prior to such a crisis,bubble,healthy correction (call it whatever you want). They rarely squeeze a trade out from the very bottom to the absolute top. Sure, they're doing their best to do so - but in the end it's about the final result. And speaking of this, it simply doesn't matter that much if you've bought in at $6k or $7k. Hell, let BTC even drop to 5k or 4k. That would be even better, as we can buy at much cheaper levels. And once BTC and alts start to gain bullish momentum again, you'll hear the exact same words, you'll read the exact same headlines on the very same magazines and newspapers. And yes, there will be again regulatory talk going on, people spreading rumours, maybe some bans, etc. It just doesn't matter in the mid to long run. I've seriously read a comment below a tweet of Kim DotCom who advised people to buy BTC on the 5th of August 2016 with the words "Buy Bitcoin while cheap. Like right now. Trust me". You don't believe what an insane amount of hate comments he received and many were just like "mhmm alright". These peeps have probably the very same mentality to those who are laughing at others that say, BTC and alts with a proven concept will have another insane bull run in the near future. Don't be a sheep. Don't panic. Be patient
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BudBronson
16
up, down then rocketAlmost every triangle an the various intervals from 15 min to 1 day, have seen a rise breakout followed by a dump. The main triangle started before Christmas is closing along with a smaller recent triangle. This double squeeze will give extra momentum to a breakout. I expect the pattern to be repeated with BTC rising and temporarily sneaking through the 13000 resistance before dropping down. The timing will be seen in the 4hr RSI overbuying before the end of the month, dropping down to oversold and pulling the daily RSI into oversold with it. The daily RSI last hit oversold in September and that bounce worked out pretty good (if you had BTC). This Daily RSI event will trigger bots to buy so we'll see a volume increase and sharp rise. To summarise: In the immediate future a risky small long hold Followed by a good short sell Followed by panic selling Followed by large volume buying and a decent long position, with potential momentum mixed with FOMO to break 14,000. Caveat : I am not a professional trader or adviser. Do your own research before making any trade. Never trade more than you can afford to loose.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by reppac
The case for that being the BTC bottomFirst of all, I should say that the drop in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD on Monday 22nd January didn’t really feel like a bottom. I didn’t see much panic. That said, I think the problem with following prominent people on cryptotwitter is that there is no sense of panic even during the down-days! It would obviously be disappointing to a lot of us if the drop to $9927 was the bottom for the next month or so, having heard chatter about sub-$9k entry point opportunities. However, there do seem to be a bunch of strong indicators that suggest that $9927—and, six days before it, $9,222—may be as low as the market will go. First of all, the 125 day moving average (a light purple area in my chart) has basically not been breached since the start of 2017, and has operated as major support on numerous occasions. Price came very close to touching it this week, and bounced off it last week. The grey area in the Fibonacci retracement is the lowest level from the $19,666 top in December — a full retrace. The long-term trident on a log-scale chart (green diagonal area) and the bottom of this range (highlighted as a diagonal pink line) was breached in this week’s price action. On the 17th, it was breached, but the price closed above it three days in a row. This week, price has closed below it, making this indicator a little suspicious on this particular action. This may be a strong indication that there is more of a drop to follow (especially if you buy into the theory of manipulation around Futures contracts closing on Friday 26th).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rufous
3
(XRP.X) Ripple Based off of IMPULSE..50%+ gainer coming?Just an idea...I have another TA on ripple that you can check out on my page. This is the idea based on the facts of impulse, psychology, and human emotion. It's pretty straight forward, explaining that since the impulse acts in waves, we should be seeing a slow uptrend in ripple for the next couple of days. The highest point it could make is 28k sash, before it recorrects and then continues to trend up, which would change my target price for my other TA (~35k sash), but this one is a different type of TA that I don't normally do. I based this number off of using Fibonacci retracements, where the top of the trend was wave 5 and the bottom was wave C...this would be a good choice to dictate if that downtrend will continue, and it reversed and actually touched 1.61 very closely. I expect the same for this upcoming wave series. All ellipses on RSI are important points: end of wave 2, start of wave 3 (which I circled to compare with our current state) and then also the tops of wave 5. The forecast bars are based on a rough estimate, as I haven't used the best method to figure out how long a path may take, as both the first and second wave are a few bars close, about 12 hours, which could be an interesting number on its own. Nonetheless, we should be uptrending from here on out! This isn't my normal type of TA, but HEY: You have to continue to expand your knowledge and try to learn to become a better trader! Please, let me hear your comments and if you're more familiar with this type of technical analysis, let me hear your thoughts as to what you see may be true or not. I am IN ripple, bullish, and holding as I do believe it is on the trend of breaking out soon.
Long
by Eurocrem
BTC 1 month chart prediction, multiple reasons/argumentsBTC will is creating a Shoulder-Head-shoulder patern. On mid-long term BTC will follow this trendline in my opinion. Multiple reasons are listed for bullruns and drops. Some of these reasons are the listing on the stockexchange (18dec) and the new "weak hands" it will bring allong. Also worth mentioning is the fact that people are getting a christmas bonus. Some people will use it to buy the new "trendy" bitcoin. Keep in mind that this also happend with gold and silver after they got mentioned on TV. After this "Dip" BTC will rise again, I don't expect a real crash, just a small correction after the 1700% gain this year. For long term investors (+2-3 months hodler's) there is nothing to worry about, just buy some more in the dip if you want to triple that money in a few months.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sellingdignity4btc
1
This time it's different. No, it's a glorious bubble!You can feel it in the air! The delusion is magnificent, the hope is higher than ever. Nothing can go wrong right? It cant crash, BTC will take over the world! It's a new paradigm! Only upwards from here, we have exceeded all expectations and the chart screams UP UP and UP!! If you don't want to lose your shirt, this is the time to stay calm. This is where you need to be cynical and shut everything out. Maybe take 30 minutes and just stare at the chart. This time it aint different, and it never will be. Fundamental Bitcoin has jumped higher then I expected! Probably higher then you expected as well. It's been a crazy year and we who have been here since the last bubble are all rich now. The amount of new people entering is astonishing! Dumb money is being poured into the crypto space, and the majority of it is entering Bitcoin in this historical bubble. Why do I call it dumb money? Because it's money that is entering on hype and FOMO. Money that didnt buy when the media phase started, and certantly not when Bitcoin was in the shadows. It's money that has been to afraid to enter the market because it didnt believe in the tech. But now that it hears "everybody" else is making big bucks on Bitcoin it wants in. Is it money that is intented to be used on the underlying asset? No. It's pure speculation and greed. It's money that dont have an exit strategy, it just wants to be included. A reciepe for disaster. Let's take a look at the fundamentals and ask ourself, what is the difference now from 1 year ago? We have more people using BTC, obviously, but it's mostly used on speculation. Now we don't have 1 Bitcoin anymore, we have 4 with huge marketcaps. The scaling saga is maybe more positive now then it was 1 year ago, but it's a big maybe. Lightning network is a very promising project and I have big faith in it, however, at this stage it is barely a working product. Big blocks was a solution for today, but far from sustainable, and fundamentally it has done BIG damage to Bitcoin Core. Is the ordinary financial world collapsing? Do you have problems paying for a loaf of bread with dollars (or have to grossly overpay)? The world may be in terrible shape, but currently, the economic shape is fantastic! If this reality changes, we have a different picture, but until then Bitcoin aint worth 10 grand! I rather take the fiat for now, MUCH easier to spend ;) And oh.. We have futures launch, which is a big driver for the hype we are seeing. Insititutional money will enter the Bitcoin market. But is it really a positive? First of, its more likely then not that it has already entered and a big possibility that the money coming in will be used to make Bitcoin go down, not up. On the other hand, its not even a guarantee that the futures will launch. And for the first time I have reached the maximum amount of charachters so you need to research that yourself :) Technical We have a classic bubble going on, and I believe we are in the final stage! I can just feel it in my bones. Gravity left for vacation, but a vacation dont last forever, and when vacation is over, harder times are ahead. So is this the top? I have no idea. It could very well go above 10k, it could go 11.5k, but if it goes above 12-13k I have made a mistake and need to take the consequences. Because I am shorting here at 9700 USD. I am hodling that position all the way up to 12k if that's what it takes. It's just a too good number to pass up this trade right now. Earlier today at 9490 USD I sold every bit of Bitcoin I had left. I am now 50% alts and 50% cash. Looking to reinvest in Bitcoin in the 3-5k-5k area, and possibly hold short until 5100 USD! I have been wrong on Bitcoin TA already through this bubble, but to be fair, so has a big majority of traders in this space. Bitcoin have just shattered rules and destroyed rational predictions. Numbers Short - 9700 USD Buy - 5100 USD Stop Loss - 12k-13k range
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Kryptokelly
166
BTC: A Tug of War between FOMO or FUDTaking a step back sometimes is helpful to make sure that you are anticipating the crowd instead of become a part of it. BTC is holding the $7000 level SURPRISINGLY well and at this point it almost feels as though all TA is out the window. I keep asking myself is it on wave 3 or wave 5? Is BTC finding its top or getting ready to blast off? My guess is most traders out there (like me) are caught between FOMO and FUD and so I am sitting out of this one. I rode the bubble for a while but I'm opting to take the week off and remain for a return to sanity or just mean regression... whichever comes first. Here's a short term somewhat neutral and forecast based on the FOMO, FUD, and upcoming Fork. Play at your own risk...
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by myceliium
1
GIVE FEEDBACK. Current BTC trend.So the current trend broke the trend BTC had since Half July. FOMO for the hardfork has kicked in hard. On the current trend, it would reach 10k before the Hardfork :O This is not at all a prediction, I was just wondering what will happen. The price is reaching the bottom limit of its current trend, so it will be interesting to see if it will bounce or not. In the days leading up to the Hardfork we will see how the trend deviated from what I drew here. stay tuned! Please for the love of god guys, give me some feedback. I'm really excited about crypto currency and trading in general.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SamvanProoijen
1
Be Brave. Short BTCFOMO at its peak right now makes it a good time to think outside the square... BTC at the top of the channel at point of resistance around 4600. RSI overbought. Money has shifted into BTC from Altcoins in a wave of fomo that spread across the globe with people trying to 'cash in' on the upcoming forks. But... The depleted altcoin market now presents a much stronger opportunity to claim large gains...gains that will be stronger than those of the Bitcoin Gold fork taking place late October, and the distrubution of coins likely Early November - still a while away. Expecting a swing back to the 4400 level due to this combination of technical and macro analysis. Good Luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by cajones85
1 year BTC-USD Logarithmic Projections UP or DOWNIf Bitcoin continues to grow and succeed, it could push the higher limits of this graph and be close to $40+k by the end of 2018. Should it be doomed to a hard forking future of obsoleteness, see the lower projection headed to a lowly $34 before the year ends. We will all decide, or will we? Could the FUD/FOMO standoff cause the governments/banks/people/business to abandon the crypto godfather in favour of a new sleeker project without the heavy mining costs and Satoshi's golden chest? Time will tell...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by F1b3r
BTCUSD - The FOMO is so thick, a chainsaw is required to cut it.Stepping back a bit from Elliott Wave Analysis (yeah, I do that too, but there are so many other voices...), the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) radiates all over the BTCUSD charts. What my experience has been, is that the FOMO does not lead to sustainable breakouts. Key word: Sustainable. It is most obvious on the Kraken data feed. It actually traded at an ATH, for a while, a few days back. On the other charts from other exchanges, we can see this too. Depending which dots or data points are connected, all of the charts can display a rising wedge, a Bearish pattern leading to a breakdown. Should this happen, it may act to calm the BTC enthusiasm enough to establish a Sustainable bullish pattern that eventually leads to sustainable new highs, a the kick-off of Elliott Wave V for BTC. A rising wedge is the perfect chainsaw therapy to cut through the FOMO and develop a sustain base from which a long run set of higher highs can be established.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RogueDave
10