Ford (F): Eyeing Earnings for Potential Resistance FlipFord is set to release its earnings report in a few hours, and analysts generally anticipate that results will meet or slightly exceed consensus expectations. Currently, Ford is trading around a significant resistance level, and a breakout above this level could mark an important shift, opening the door for further gains. Our outlook remains bullish, with expectations that Ford will fill the large gap visible on the chart in the coming months.
Recent analyst targets align with our view, with ratings from Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley averaging around $13 for Ford stock. This target range corresponds well with our technical analysis, reinforcing our approach to Ford.
However, we’re holding off on any immediate action until after the earnings report to avoid an unpredictable reaction. We’ll be monitoring the market’s response closely, avoiding impulsive moves, as the true direction often becomes clearer after the initial post-earnings volatility.
Until then, patience remains crucial—trade the plan, stay disciplined, and seize the opportunity when it aligns with our setup.
FORD
Large Daily FVG between ~12-13.6Good chance this will get filled considering how large it is, and considering that most daily fair value gaps on Ford have been filled in recent history.
A long play into $12.5-13 seems reasonable here.
Not trading this one myself, just noticing it and saving the idea to see how it plays out, I primarily trade spot, not options.
Example of prior gaps getting filled on the daily below:
Ford (F): Waiting for the right moment after recent bounceAfter being stopped out at break-even with profits already taken on NYSE:F , we are now observing the chart again. We're pleased that we didn't buy any shares as the anticipated bounce did not materialize. However, Ford did bounce almost exactly at point X, which is where wave 2 should not have dropped below—it briefly wicked under before pumping back up. This is something we can respect, as we haven't been stuck below the designated level for an extended time.
From a technical perspective, the plan is clear, but Ford is highly impacted by the current political climate, as car companies are in the spotlight right now. Despite this, we are planning for a push upwards after the recent dip. Ideally, we should not revisit the $9.64 level or, even better, avoid the wave (ii) level. Multiple levels need to be flipped for us to be confident that there's enough strength for future success. We've marked the "Ideal Entry Point" with a green dot, and it should be clear what we want to see.
For now, we're standing on the sidelines, letting it develop and play out. If our scenario unfolds as anticipated, we can capitalize on it.
Plan the trade and trade the plan.
F - Ford: a Buy Now After Declining 23% in a Month? Yes, yes !
Price-To-Earnings ratio (10x) is below the US market (17x)
Earnings are forecast to grow 16% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Ford Pro, the company's commercial vehicle division, showed strength with a 15.1% operating margin, driven by high demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit vans. Plans to increase production capacity by 100,000 units by 2026 further support future growth. Additionally, Ford’s focus on software technology and services positions it well in the evolving automotive landscape. This dip presents a potential buying opportunity as Ford continues to innovate and expand.
Ford: Quality Woes and EV Struggles Send Shares PlungingFord Motor Company is currently navigating a challenging operational landscape marked by significant headwinds. The company's financial performance has been notably impacted by a confluence of factors, with quality issues and the electrification transition posing the most substantial challenges.
A surge in warranty costs, primarily related to older vehicle models, has eroded profitability. Concurrently, the Model E division, responsible for Ford's electric vehicle initiatives, has incurred substantial losses. The competitive intensity within the EV market, coupled with evolving consumer preferences, has exacerbated these challenges. While the Ford Pro segment, focused on commercial vehicles, exhibits growth potential, its current contribution is insufficient to offset the negative impact of the other divisions.
To restore financial health and regain investor confidence, Ford must implement a comprehensive strategic overhaul. This necessitates a concerted effort to enhance quality control, accelerate EV development while mitigating costs, and optimize operational efficiency across the entire organization. The company's ability to successfully navigate this complex environment will be instrumental in determining its long-term competitive position and market share.
Crucially, Ford must balance the need to address immediate challenges with a forward-looking perspective. The company's strategic direction will need to encompass both short-term cost reduction measures and long-term investments in emerging technologies and market segments.
FORD - ICE predominates EV falters LONGFord has scaled back its EV ambitions in consideration of the marketplace while TSLA drops
its price in the Eurozone and falls into less than first place in the China EV market. Ford's
F-150 truck continues to dominate GM and the others in North America.
On the 4H chart, first a price uptrend and then retrace to the 0.5 Fib level and a reverse into
a new trend up. A pair of EMAs shows an impending golden cross also suggested by
the zero lag MACD. The two RSI lines ( 60 minutes and 480 minutes fast and slow) are
rising and about to cross the 50 level.
I see this as a long entry for Ford. Targets based on major pivots in 2023 are 13 and 14.25
TESLA 300 AFTER EARNINGS ? 3 STRONG REASONS !!
Strong EV Market Position:
Tesla’s electric vehicles (EVs) remain popular, with the Model Y and Model 3 ranking among the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. in 2023. Even as legacy automakers enter the market, Tesla’s success suggests continued consumer preference for its vehicles.
Cybertruck:
Tesla’s long-awaited Cybertruck could be a game-changer. Pickup trucks have high gross profit margins, and if Tesla prices the Cybertruck right, it could boost their overall profitability1.
Regulatory Credits and Rebates: As Europe tightens regulations on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, Tesla may receive more regulatory credits (from competitors like Fiat) going forward.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) Technology: Analysts estimate that Tesla’s FSD technology could potentially raise earnings per share by $1-$2 annually through the end of the decade.
FORD intends to be back at $20 soon!FORD weekly data is conveying massive accumulation at the current price range. Net buy volume this past few days / weeks has been on the weighty side.
Expect some significant price shift to the upside with target of X2 easily at $20.
$10-12 price level has been a major order block where buyers converge. This area has been tested many times and prices keeps reversing to the upside.
Spotted at 12.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 17- Ford Motors - (5th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing Ford Motors (F), starting from the 4-Month chart.
- R2F
Ford a Fake Dump- just for fun and training.
- i play some stocks when i am bored.
-----------------------------------------------------
Trading Parts
-----------------------------------------------------
Buy Zone : 9.50 ish
Rebuy Zone : 9.00$
Sell Zones : 14$ to 15$
-----------------------------------------------------
PS : Now it's week-end so wait for the GAP before entering any position.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Ford Reduces Prices of F-150 Lightning by $5,500Ford Motor Company (NYSE: NYSE:F ) has recently taken steps to increase demand for its electric vehicles (EVs) by reducing the prices of certain F-150 Lightning trims by up to $5,500. The latest round of price cuts applies to the F-150 Lightning's mid-level variants and came into effect on April 5, 2024. According to a report by CarsDirect, the starting prices of the Lightning Pro Standard Range and Lightning Platinum Extended Range variants remained unchanged at $54,995 and $84,995, respectively.
Meanwhile, the starting prices of the F-150 Lightning XLT Standard Range and Lariat Extended Range were reduced by $2,000 and $2,500, respectively. The starting price of the F-150 Lightning Flash Extended Range was substantially reduced by $5,500, bringing the new starting price of the F-150 Lightning Flash trim to $67,995, which is closer to its launch price of $69,995.
The F-150 Lightning Flash trim offers a target EPA range of 320 miles, a 15.5-inch touchscreen, a B&O sound system with HD radio and speakers, and a wireless charging pad, making it a value for money. Additionally, the F-150 Lightning, with a manufacturer's suggested retail price below $80,000, is eligible for the full $7,500 federal tax credit in the United States.
In the first quarter of 2024, Ford (NYSE: NYSE:F ) sold 20,233 EVs in the United States, marking an 86% year-over-year increase. Sales of Ford's Mach-E rose 77% year over year, making it the second-best-selling electric SUV in the United States. The F-150 Lightning remained the best-selling electric pickup in the United States, with sales of 7,743 units.
The sales of EVs gained momentum after the automaker reduced prices of the Mach-E by up to $8,100 in February. Additionally, it offered substantial incentives on the F-150 Lightning. In January, Ford announced the prices of the F-150 Lightning for the model year 2024, increasing the prices of most trims from $2,000 to $7,500. The starting price of the F-150 Lightning Pro rose from $5,500 to $54,995.
Despite the increase in EV sales in the first quarter of 2024, the automaker announced a reduction in its workforce by one-third at its Rouge EV Center, where the F-150 Lightning is manufactured. The recent round of price cuts followed the launch of Ford's new 2024 Mustang Mach-E, which boasts better range, rapid charging, and quicker acceleration.
Technical Outlook
Despite the reduction in prices of the F-150 Lightning, Ford Motors (NYSE: NYSE:F ) is still trading slightly beneath the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.48 indicating low buying momentum from the bulls.
Ford Stock Analysis : A Long-Term PerspectiveIn our exploration of the stock market, we don't limit our analysis to just short-term charts; we delve into the longer horizon as well.
Ford has particularly caught our attention. Our initial entry into Ford was at $10.30, a point which, upon reviewing the broader picture, appears to have been very close to the bottom—hopefully, the lowest point it will maintain. Any movement below this could potentially signal a fall towards the $4 mark, akin to the levels seen during the pandemic.
Assuming we've indeed hit the bottom, a conservative projection sees Ford climbing to at least $45 over a multi-year span. This bold assumption is reinforced by the structure observed on the 2-hour chart, showcasing a Wave (i), Wave 8ii), as well as Wave (iii)and Wave (iv). Our entry at Wave (iv) has proven strategic, with Ford's price appreciating by approximately 7.5% since then.
Believing in Ford's further potential, we plan to adjust our stop-loss just below the pivot point at Wave (iv), setting it at $10.79. We'll provide updates on our take profit targets as they are achieved, closely monitoring the stock for optimal exit points.
GM may be pivoting down SHORTGM on the weekly chart has ascended to the top of the high volume area of the long term
volume profile. The predictive algorithm forecasts a bounce down from that level. The
MACD indicator shows lines crossing over the histogram while the RSI lines are in the 60s
about the same level as the market pivot in 2022. The Supply / Demand indicator has the lines
with zero slopes ( flat) and ready for a reversal. Fundamentally, GM is challenged by the
dynamic between EVs and hybrids moving foward and federal mandates on fleet production
efficiency quota. I will take a short trade here along with Ford.
F Bearish Bias Again SHORTFORD ( F) on a weekly chart is in a falling wedge pattern. Fundamentally, it is challenged
by the EV vs hybrid dynamic, weak EV sales and the federal slowly ramping up MPG
requirements as potentially rising gasoline prices affecting consumer decisions away from the
gas consuming F-150 where the profits are the highest. Unless F can breakout of the falling
wedge, price could compress further in the wedge with a move down as far as 9.
At present F is testing the upper resistance descending trendline. The predictive algorithm
suggests it will be rejected and fall. I am entering a short trade here for a long term swing.
Ford Headed to 45 if it Can Clear Jan '22 HighsFord has broken out of two falling wedges, targets for both shown on the 2 weekly chart above, and should be headed back towards its January of 2022 highs.
The smaller falling wedge and the larger one have measured moves to TP 1s that sit just below ($22.80) and above ($29.20) its January of 2022 highs ($25.87).
If it can break and hold above 26, TP 2 for both falling wedges line up with halfway between its 1.0 and 1.618 fib retracement at $35.14, and then exactly at the 1.618 at $44.86.
The grey box may act as an area of resistance to this move.
Ford Motors and Forever 21 Collaborate on Capsule CollectionFord Motors (NYSE: NYSE:F ) emerges as a beacon of resilience and innovation. While the automotive industry faces uncertainty, Ford's strategic initiatives and overlooked strengths position it for long-term success.
Ford's Collaboration with Forever 21 Marks Strategic Diversification Efforts
One such initiative is Ford's collaboration with fashion giant Forever 21, marking a bold foray into the world of apparel. The recent launch of a capsule collection featuring nostalgic iconography of classic Ford cars demonstrates the company's commitment to diversification and tapping into new markets. By leveraging its iconic brand image, Ford (NYSE: NYSE:F ) aims to connect with consumers beyond the realm of automobiles, tapping into the intersection of fashion and automotive culture.
Ford's Strengths in Commercial Business and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Despite prevailing pessimism surrounding the automotive industry, Ford's commercial business, particularly Ford Pro, stands out as a lucrative segment. With impressive earnings and revenue growth, Ford Pro's success highlights the company's ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the commercial vehicle market. Moreover, the continued growth of Ford Pro's software subscriptions and mobile repair services further solidifies its position as a key driver of future profitability.
Ford's Strong Dividend Yield and Financial Discipline
Furthermore, Ford's commitment to improving return on invested capital (ROIC) signals a proactive approach to enhancing operational efficiency and financial performance. With targeted efforts to streamline operations and optimize costs, Ford aims to elevate its ROIC from 14% to 20% in the coming years, underscoring its commitment to creating long-term value for shareholders.
In addition to its operational prowess, Ford's strong dividend yield offers investors a compelling opportunity for income generation. With a forward yield of nearly 5% and a robust dividend distribution policy, Ford provides shareholders with attractive returns even amidst market volatility. The company's solid adjusted free cash flow further reinforces its ability to sustain dividend payments and deliver value to shareholders.
RiskMastery's Red Flag Stocks - F EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Red Flag Stocks - Stocks with bearish potential.
In this edition, we'll be looking at NYSE:F ...
I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility.
If price can hold below $12.06 ... Bearish potential may be unlocked.
My key downside targets include:
- $11.30 (Conservative)
- $9.93 (Medium)
- $8.67 (Aggressive)
If however price breaks above $12.91 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked.
(My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart)
Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future.
If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below.
Mr RM | Risk Mastery
Disclaimer:
This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
Ford: On the road towards profits?🚗Ford #F NYSE:F
Looking ahead, our analysis and entry points have proven to be accurate. We are maintaining our long-term position, with a stop-loss set at $10.31. As for our recent short-term trade, we have already secured 75% profits and adjusted our stop-loss to the entry price. We now believe that Wave 1 has concluded, and we anticipate a three-part correction down to Wave 2, followed by Wave 3. We are expecting an Expanded Flat correction, which should not exceed 138%; the precise level will be determined once we confidently identify where Wave (a) ends.
As we prepare for Wave (c) and simultaneously Wave 2, we anticipate a retracement between 50 and 78.6%. Given that this is Wave 2, we are broadening our entry range due to the larger upside potential. We are looking at a risk-to-reward ratio of 4.8 for Wave 3, targeting a minimum of $16.75. Our entry zone ranges from $11.30 to $10.37. 📈
TSLA moves yield volatility and trader profit LONGTSLA is shown here on a 15 minute chart with a set of anchored VWAP bands. A relative volume
indicator shows spiking volumes each and every morning and fades as the trading session wears
on. Overall, TSLA trends between the upper and higher VWAP bands and their counterparts
below the mean VWAP. Like most other stocks, TSLA has periods of ranging and other periods
where it trends. Day traders can capture intraday volatility while swing traders can sometimes
get a 10% move over 2-3 days. In the past month TSLA moved 5% up overall. However, in that
move price fluctuated widely which has been exploited by traders. The high trading volumes
keep spreads very low while the volatility makes options trading very challenging. Que sera,
sera.
TSLA to FORD Ratios of share price and market cap over time On the weekly chart, the TSLA /F ratio is plotted versus time. An ascending ratio suggests, TSLA
market cap is dominating FORD while a falling ratio is the opposite. If a trader is trading both
of them this charge helps guide relative momentum and so also trading decisions related to
the shift in the EV trend and other related long-view concepts. FORD just did a big earnings
beat. While TSLA is sideways at best, FORD popped 8-10% which will reflect itself in the overall
weekly candle being red and somewhat engulfing. I am hopeful those trading both Ford and
Tesla find this helpful. Zooming into daily or 2-5H time frames may reveal more dynamic
price ratio action.
IS THE AUTO INDUSTRY ABOUT TO CRASH? FORD TRENDS Uh, okay, so I have zero clue what is going to happen and I didn't see this until now, but if I was trading per my style, I'd be loaded up on puts where I circled. I WOULD THEN ABOSLUTELY LOAD THE BOAT on the retouch. Potentially down to $8 and then probably calls for a short term bounce, which would have me realizing profits quickly in order to keep risk down. I would then be waiting for the next signal.
It's getting so close to crash time per multiple indicators, potentially, according to short term trend alignment which is far from an exact science, however, it shows a small pump of pretty much up to maybe $11, but wow! There is a LOT of downside showing.
Any thoughts on this?
The crash projections say Late Feb/Early March
But this market is moving faster every day, which is outpacing a lot of older traders that aren't able to adapt.
I mean, there is no question it bounces back, but.. how long, and how much, and how fast?
I think there is room to return to nearly $20.
In other words, if it's March, and the price is at 3.83, and you are hearing doom and gloom on the news. BUY CALLS. I wouldn't cover shares, I think the pace will be quite fast on the return for a lot of these stocks.
All in all, if you're still with me, the whole point I'm trying to make is this next crash is a trap, leading into a pump, which will cause "THE BIG ONE"
Trends point to next year early, but the market is fast, and you need to reanalyze in real time, meaning, it could literally happen in the next few weeks. I don't know, you don't know. We can't predict the future of stock prices, but we can use the information we see to swing the statistics in our favor for a successful trade, even if that means being patient and waiting for the right entry.