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FORD

I'm trading ALDW oil, F, GMViewing the chart above, the vertical line represents the day Hurricane Harvey hit. These stocks; which fall in the automotive, home and oil industries; saw a substantial increase over the next month and all but oil is still seeing an increase. Ford, GM, LPX and Alon. I have been mentioning and trading the first three, Alon (ALDW) is a new one for me. ALDW appears to be forming a cup and handle going into this storm. The last storm caused ALDW to jump upward. At a p/e multiple of 16.38, this stock trades cheaper than say XOM, which is at 29.49. Also note that ALDW has a small capitalization of 739 million, making it fairly reactive to oil prices. I'm using technicals, mainly RSI, for entry. I look for RSI to range around 50-65 on support, lower could mean a bearish move. My portfolio holdings going through Q4, FX trading - 10% Swing/pattern trading - 30% ALDW - 20% F - 20% GM - 20%
NYSE:GMLong
by Brandon50115
Seven Percent Plus Drop In Cards For Ford?Ford Motor Company has climbed quickly in the previous month. Overall auto sales are in rough shape and could be this way for a while. According to the technical indicators and the historics, the stock has a good chance of coming back down to Earth which is laid out here. Ford loves to flirt around the 11 mark. Will it head back to it once more? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought meaning the stock could drop in the near term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2375 and the negative is 0.7026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action has flattened out. I could not locate similar consolidation in this stock for such a prolonged period of time. While this activity is a bit of a wildcard, the positive vortex indicator oscillates up and down as time transpires. With it staying high for a while, it is due to head downward, meaning the stock would drop at least a little (1-4%) soon. The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.15 and D value is 92.44. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the decline in the stock should begin within the next two trading days. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal occurred today which is another indicator of downward movement for the stock. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 98 times dating back to 1972. The stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days in ninety percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3.75% seventy percent of the time and fifty percent of the time loses 6%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a sizeable drop is coming. The RSI, stochastic, and positive VI have been at their current or higher levels simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock since 1979. Even though the availability of data points is low, the rarity of such a feat is the biggest signal for short-term traders to consider. Over the next 30 days, the stock always drops at least 7.19% from the date all three indicators are at or above the current levels simultaneously. The median drop over this time frame is 10.17%. If we look solely at the overbought RSI reading and its historics, the stock could drop in upwards of 8%. The RSI has been at or above its current level 139 times in its history. Over the course of the following 35 trading days, the stock retreats an average of 10.03% and a median of 8.27%. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 7% over the following 35 trading days. The best indicator is the flattening positive VI value and the simultaneously high levels of all three indicators. The SAG gauge signal and its historic information support a minimum of 3-5% drop in the near-term as well.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
1
Ford Chart: Different Trade IdeasThis chart shows a number of possible directions that price could take and is meant to spawn multiple trade ideas. I firmly believe in diversifying positions and trade ideas within the holdings of one individual asset, but I posted up an example with targets for a long trade that will help to manage risk by utilizing major resistance, as well as Fib levels, the Gann Fan (always a 45 degree angle), the Stochastic, and the Awesome Oscillator. I also tossed in an Elliott Impulse wave on the big spike so that you can see how you might trade a big breakout and know which phase you're in during the trade. Regardless, your satisfaction with this trade idea will depend on your fundamental views of auto-manufacturing. If you think American auto manufacturers are going to get crushed, don't buy it. I do not believe that that trend will continue on a long term basis. Happy Hunting Everyone.
NYSE:FLong
by Piptocurrency
8
Still room for Ford to run...downOn March 24, 2017 the Ford Motor Company (F), 50 day moving average (MA) crossed above its 200 day. Historically this has occurred 37 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.197% and maximum drop of 23.281% over the next 23 trading days. Currently the 50 MA and 200 MA have crossed each other 4 times in the last 27 trading days. This tells us there are either big swings or stagnation. Both times the 50 MA crossed over the 200 MA, the highest gain was only 1.269%. The last two times cross ups and cross downs occurred close to each other was before and during the "financial crisis" in 2007 and 2008. On both of these occasions the maximum gain on the cross up was 0.897% over the next 25 trading days, while the stock dropped 20.213% and 8.705% when 50 MA crossed below 200 MA (which is our current situation). Since November 2007, the minimal drop of the stock when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA has been 2.778% (October 2014). The other three minimal results were losses of 4.000% (January 2014), 5.197% (July 2015), and 7.0393% (June 2012). When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 26.6610. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is approaching oversold, but still has room to drop. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.4195. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. Even though it is at a high level, it can continue to go higher in a negative manner for the stock. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 4.70% over the next four weeks.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
F: Ford can trigger a weekly uptrend next weekLet's enter longs here at market open. A good option is to go long stocks. A 19% account position would be a good starting point, you can build this position during 3-5 days. Or you can simply long calls at the money for 1 month to use up less margin. You can buy the equivalent of a 20% account position, for only 5% of the cost. I'd reccomend the 12.00 strike, March 17th call options. That's rather economic right now, but you would be in a risky position if price doesn't hit the weekly uptrend trigger level at 12.86 quickly. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:FLong
by IvanLabrie