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FORD

Ford Continuing Bullish, Stair Stepping and Rolling UpI am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I do not consider myself a professional stock trader, and most people would agree with me. I currently have shares in Ford for a long term hold. I just purchased two call options (March 16, 2018 expiration at Strike 13; Options Ask Price $.50, Stock Price was $13.26) in Ford on Friday, January 12, 2018. What I see is Ford making a Stair Step Pattern (with a bit of rolling thrown in) in forty cent ($.40) increments. From October through November 2017 it rolled between $12.00 and $12.40; when it broke that pattern it rolled between $12.40 and $12.80 from the end of November 2017 to the beginning of January 2018; it broke that pattern on January 04, 2018 and we come to the present where it is settled just above $13.20. If it continues with this consistency I believe its next stop will be the $13.60ish area. I have drawn that out in an attempt to give a visual aid; the explanation will be from bottom to top. The bottom two horizontal lines and bottom double vertical arrow (orange) display the first stair step and roll; the second double vertical arrow (green) in between the second and third horizontal line show the next step up; the third arrow (red) between the next lines continues the trend; and the top arrow (blue) displays my prediction of what I think Ford Stock will do. So, a brief recap of that paragraph: $12.00-$12.40, $12.40-$12.80, $12.80-$13.20 (current) and $13.20-$13.60 (predicted). Will Ford go straight to the $13.60 area or will it roll a time or two, as it has been doing between the steps? I don't know. I have taken both possibilities into consideration and have added them to the visual display in the forms of two drawn lines. The rolling, "W" shaped arrow (black) displays a possibility of a roll before continuing up; and the short, straight arrow (purple) displays a possibility of a straight shot. Of course, the third possibility that always exists is that Ford will just fall. I don't think so, but it is a possibility so I think it needs to be mentioned. Here are reasons for considering what I believe to be the most likely two scenarios. First, the roll; Ford may continue to roll between $12.80 and $13.20 (or any area in between) just because that is what it has been doing for the past couple of times before continuing up to the next level. That is the most consistent, reliable, and repeatable pattern and possibility. The second possibility is Ford skipping the roll and going straight to the next level. This is a possibility because of a number of reasons. First, it closed above $13.20 on the last trading day (Friday, January 12, 2018); but more specifically it closed above $13.22. $13.22 is significant to me because that number/price formed a Tweezer Top Pattern on back to back trading days (it wouldn't really be a Tweezer Pattern if it didn't, right?) of Friday, January 05 and Monday, January 08, 2018. By closing above the Tweezer Tops I think Ford is signaling it's ready to move on. Second, after the Tweezer Ford formed a not so textbook Rising Three Pattern indicating a continuing bullish move. Third, it closed above the Tweezer Tops and Rising Three on a volume of nearly 57 Million which is double the volume of it's previous trading day. You can decide for yourself which short term pattern Ford will follow; but regardless of what it does short term, I think it is safe to say it is continuing a bullish trend for the mid to long term. I wrote an analysis of that previously which you can view so I won't go into detail here. Ford will release 2017 Fourth Quarter Earnings after the Market closes on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. What is, or is not, said may or may not impact the Stock. Ford is a dividend paying Stock if you are considering a low cost Stock to invest in. It has not yet released it's First Quarter 2018 dividend information but if you want in you'll need to be quick as I expect it within the next few days.
NYSE:FLong
by AROD01
Ford, Mid to Long Term Bullish with Elliot WaveI just learned about Elliot Wave so I decided to try and apply it to Ford. See my immediate preceding two publications for a more in depth analysis of Ford. The very top resistance line I drew (the number 5 spot at the top of the wave) is based off a resistance from about a year ago--December 09, 2016 and January 04-05, 2017. I plan to wait for a bounce off the Number 4 spot ($12.40) before entering a new bullish position. Breaking through the Number 3 spot ($12.75/$12.80ish) will be confirmation to me of a continuing Bullish trend. I am not a professional. I am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I currently have shares of Ford for a long term hold investment.
NYSE:FLong
by AROD01
3
Ford Long Term BullI am not a professional. I am not certified, licensed, or employed by any person or institution to give financial advice. I currently have shares of Ford I plan to hold for the long term and am considering purchasing a long term Call Option in Ford. I am going with Ford for the long term. If you want a short term analysis of Ford, look at the post I published right before this one. The chart you hopefully see is a long term line chart set on weekly. I realize there are a lot of lines and I apologize if that is confusing, but I ask you bear with me....or in this case bull with me *duck and cover* :) If you look at the vertical orange lines, I have attempted to space them in what I see as a biennial pattern. Let me know what you think, but to me it looks as if Ford trends for a couple years and then consolidates before trending again. Those trends are both bearish and bullish, but I think we have just entered either the bullish trend or the consolidtion after a bearish trend. I think Ford hit a low point back in July/August of 2017 and has been climbing ever since. I think it will do one of two things depending on which phase it is in. If it is in the consolidation phase it may go sideways or up a little bit more before retracing back to the area of July/August 2017 in the $10ish-$10.50ish area and then come back up. Right now I'm waiting for it to break the resistance of $12.80 from back in February 2012 (also, if you read my short term post about Ford you'll see I already have a $12.75 resistance line drawn for short term consolidation) and the $12.60ish resistance it seems to keep hitting from February of this year (which was also used as support back in February and March of 2013) to see if it will continue up or not. If it continues up, with help of our current Bull Market, I think the call can be made that Ford is in the up-trend phase. My guess for resistance for the up-trend is $16.00 (green line) or $17.25ish (blue line). If you really want to be an optimist you could hope for it to reach the $30.00 mark from back in 2000; and though I'm not ruling that out completely, I'm not counting on it. The red line I've drawn at $18.40ish is my highly optimistic outlook, but the $16/$17 lines I've mentioned are more realistic to me. $14.00 also seems to be bit of a resistance buffer as seen in April 2010, January 2013, July 2016; and as support in October 2014 and September 2015.
NYSE:FLong
by AROD01
27
Ford Consolidation, Long Term Bull I am calling a short term retracement and long term Bull for Ford. I think it is currently consolidating, or building up pressure, to break out of a roll and continue it's up-trend. From the beginning of October 2017 through the end of November 2017 it consolidated/rolled between a $12.00 support and a $12.40 resistance. That is after dropping to a $10.47 low in August 2017, and then breaking into an up-trend. Two dollars ($2.00) in three months. Now, I realize that may be slow for a lot of you and a lot of Stocks (I'm not arguing that point) but that is where my long-term bullish outlook comes into play. It went $2.00 in three months and began a forty cent ($.40) consolidation/roll. It broke out of that on high volume on November 29, 2017 (the big green candlestick--a thirty cent day which is quite a move for Ford considering most of it's single day moves seem to be five to ten cents ) and within three days reached $12.75 (the wick on December 04, 2017 actually had a high of $12.81). Since then it has dropped to $12.40 (old resistance becoming new support) and bounced back to $12.75. The past couple of days have closed down forming a couple of red/bearish candles. That is why short term I am calling a consolidation and retracement down to $12.40. If it were a regular trading week I would call 3-5 trading days (that's how long it took to retrace from $12.40 down to $12.00 during October and November 2017) to reach $12.40; but I'm not expecting too much high volume this week due to Christmas, and also New Years approaching. Sure, the Market will still be open; but like any holiday there will be a lot of people taking time off. After it hits $12.40 I think it will bounce back to at least $12.75. On Oct 10 and Nov 01-03 Ford hit $12.40 resistance; and multiple times throughout both months it hit $12.00 support before breaking above resistance on Nov 29 as previously mentioned. After it breaks $12.75 I think it will continue it's up-trend before once again consolidating somewhere. Should you do a bearish play? I don't think so, unless you are good at spreads or some other really short term (weekly/daily) strategy. If it repeats the Oct-Nov trend it will hit support within a couple days. I'm not even sure of a short term bull play. I think a mid (1-5 months) to long term (5 months + ) bull play is the best shot. I am an amateur Stock and Options trader. I am not licensed, certified, or employed by anyone or any institution to give financial advice. I have shares of Ford I am planning on keeping for long term to continue earning dividends. I am considering a mid to long term Call Option, but probably won't buy it until and unless Ford breaks $12.75 and continues up. Remember, Ford moved $2.00 in three months and with the Bull Market we are in it could repeat that. For long term Option play consider historic resistance has been around $16-$17 (give or take 50 cents). Examples of that on a long term line chart are May 2002, January 2004, July-October 2013, July 2014, and a 15 year high (2002 to present) of $18.65 in January 2011. $10.00/$9.00ish seems to be support since 2009 on a line chart and Ford came close to hitting that in August 2017; but all that is another chart for another time.
NYSE:F
by AROD01
1
I'm trading ALDW oil, F, GMViewing the chart above, the vertical line represents the day Hurricane Harvey hit. These stocks; which fall in the automotive, home and oil industries; saw a substantial increase over the next month and all but oil is still seeing an increase. Ford, GM, LPX and Alon. I have been mentioning and trading the first three, Alon (ALDW) is a new one for me. ALDW appears to be forming a cup and handle going into this storm. The last storm caused ALDW to jump upward. At a p/e multiple of 16.38, this stock trades cheaper than say XOM, which is at 29.49. Also note that ALDW has a small capitalization of 739 million, making it fairly reactive to oil prices. I'm using technicals, mainly RSI, for entry. I look for RSI to range around 50-65 on support, lower could mean a bearish move. My portfolio holdings going through Q4, FX trading - 10% Swing/pattern trading - 30% ALDW - 20% F - 20% GM - 20%
NYSE:GMLong
by Brandon50115
Seven Percent Plus Drop In Cards For Ford?Ford Motor Company has climbed quickly in the previous month. Overall auto sales are in rough shape and could be this way for a while. According to the technical indicators and the historics, the stock has a good chance of coming back down to Earth which is laid out here. Ford loves to flirt around the 11 mark. Will it head back to it once more? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought meaning the stock could drop in the near term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2375 and the negative is 0.7026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action has flattened out. I could not locate similar consolidation in this stock for such a prolonged period of time. While this activity is a bit of a wildcard, the positive vortex indicator oscillates up and down as time transpires. With it staying high for a while, it is due to head downward, meaning the stock would drop at least a little (1-4%) soon. The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.15 and D value is 92.44. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the decline in the stock should begin within the next two trading days. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal occurred today which is another indicator of downward movement for the stock. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 98 times dating back to 1972. The stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days in ninety percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3.75% seventy percent of the time and fifty percent of the time loses 6%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a sizeable drop is coming. The RSI, stochastic, and positive VI have been at their current or higher levels simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock since 1979. Even though the availability of data points is low, the rarity of such a feat is the biggest signal for short-term traders to consider. Over the next 30 days, the stock always drops at least 7.19% from the date all three indicators are at or above the current levels simultaneously. The median drop over this time frame is 10.17%. If we look solely at the overbought RSI reading and its historics, the stock could drop in upwards of 8%. The RSI has been at or above its current level 139 times in its history. Over the course of the following 35 trading days, the stock retreats an average of 10.03% and a median of 8.27%. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 7% over the following 35 trading days. The best indicator is the flattening positive VI value and the simultaneously high levels of all three indicators. The SAG gauge signal and its historic information support a minimum of 3-5% drop in the near-term as well.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
1
Ford Chart: Different Trade IdeasThis chart shows a number of possible directions that price could take and is meant to spawn multiple trade ideas. I firmly believe in diversifying positions and trade ideas within the holdings of one individual asset, but I posted up an example with targets for a long trade that will help to manage risk by utilizing major resistance, as well as Fib levels, the Gann Fan (always a 45 degree angle), the Stochastic, and the Awesome Oscillator. I also tossed in an Elliott Impulse wave on the big spike so that you can see how you might trade a big breakout and know which phase you're in during the trade. Regardless, your satisfaction with this trade idea will depend on your fundamental views of auto-manufacturing. If you think American auto manufacturers are going to get crushed, don't buy it. I do not believe that that trend will continue on a long term basis. Happy Hunting Everyone.
NYSE:FLong
by Piptocurrency
8
Still room for Ford to run...downOn March 24, 2017 the Ford Motor Company (F), 50 day moving average (MA) crossed above its 200 day. Historically this has occurred 37 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.197% and maximum drop of 23.281% over the next 23 trading days. Currently the 50 MA and 200 MA have crossed each other 4 times in the last 27 trading days. This tells us there are either big swings or stagnation. Both times the 50 MA crossed over the 200 MA, the highest gain was only 1.269%. The last two times cross ups and cross downs occurred close to each other was before and during the "financial crisis" in 2007 and 2008. On both of these occasions the maximum gain on the cross up was 0.897% over the next 25 trading days, while the stock dropped 20.213% and 8.705% when 50 MA crossed below 200 MA (which is our current situation). Since November 2007, the minimal drop of the stock when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA has been 2.778% (October 2014). The other three minimal results were losses of 4.000% (January 2014), 5.197% (July 2015), and 7.0393% (June 2012). When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 26.6610. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is approaching oversold, but still has room to drop. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.4195. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. Even though it is at a high level, it can continue to go higher in a negative manner for the stock. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 4.70% over the next four weeks.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler