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Forecasting

EURO - Where to next?EURO - Where to next? EURO Fundamental aspects: Recently, if you're confused on why we got minor pull back on equites, FX majors and even commodities- It was all based on treasuries. What do I mean by this? Take a look at T notes...Real yields headed higher yesterday, DXY increased - Now we hit key resistance area of DXY right now. Now take into mind EURO has a large % of DXY movement. The pull back is minor on what we have seen on various other instruments as well. Let me remind you something, this is what you want to see when you want to get in long! Things are now looking more healthy to go back in Long again. This early morning, I have put my first long position in - I am scaling into my positions. Could head lower, which would be awesome, before we go back to rising again - (DISCLAIMER - Not an investment advice!) Technical aspects it's getting exciting for most pairs including commodities - We've got a really nice wedge formation when it comes to gold! Trade what you see, not what you think. Keep in mind today we have the US Bond Auction. This week fundamental aspects we have ECB meeting on Thursday - Will they step up Bond purchasing? Will there be an increase on PEPP? & Questions on rising yields? These are key questions I will be taking into mind. DAILY - EURO Technical Aspects: Pattern: Channel Support: 1.18290, 1.17430, 1.16350 Resistance: 1.19630, 1.20265, 1.20775 Keep an eye on 200 EMA - Key support for now, if we decline below we will be going to the next support areas. Go to lower time frames for further swing and intraday trade aspects, following your own trade plan. Key tip : Everyone trades in very unique ways & that's what makes trading exciting. Take in other people aspects of course but at the end of the way be strict remain to trade your own plan. That's the greatest way you'll learn if you're strategy is working! Sorry for the not posting much, I've been posting on the various private groups I am part of and working on my own content I share newsletters. If you'd like to be part of my FX Weekly - Week ahead of Technical & Fundamental aspects, Comment below or private message...We will be sure to send you the link! It's free. ☼ Have a great day ahead ☼ Trade Journal (Just trade ideas, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
AKRO is going to lift off hardHere I share you an idea about AKRO. Its a lowcap, a bridge between Ethereum and Polkadot. Defi project, one of the firsts to join the Polkadot ecosystem, and printing a beautiful reversal in both pairs, USD and BTC. I expect at least a x2, and then a x4 would be around 600M mktcap. Nothing unseen. Target around 0.2 dollar Could go higher, but would be sweet to be there at least. What do you think? Tell me in the commments your idea! Cheers!
ALong
by BiO-618
2
GBP/USD to get rejected by the resistance ?Good Day Traders !! On this specific pair we are approaching a strong level of resistance and we rejected that level a few times in the past and we may see a new rejection shortly. We might see GBP grab some liquidity in the demand area before continuing it's move to the upside and then get enough strength and momentum to be able to break this historical zone. From an institutional perspective we are looking at a GBP that is currently loosing it's power and momentum since we went from 13700 Net position to 9600 Net position and this could also explain the size of the bullish getting smaller and smaller as we were approaching the resistance area. So On the short term I see a bearish GBP/USD !! Now if you enjoyed this analysis smash that like button and share. If you have a different opinion please leave a comment below as I would love to get more insights and ideas. I also linked my previous idea about this asset. Trade safe !!!
Short
by TheDayzen
1
USD/CHF Update !!Good Day Traders !! On this pair we just completed the 5 waves of the impulse corrective continuation pattern on the monthly timeframe and we just started the ABC corrective wave. On the Weekly timeframe we have a the price that started creating a rising Wedge and this is why we expect it to retrace to the neckline of the H&S and begin his next impulsion. From a daily perspective we have a H&S formation and we expect the price to go retest the neckline before the continuation to the upside. From an institutional perspective we can see that we have a pretty strong CHF since we added more than 4500 long position on the last report in addition to hedge funds closing 750 short position.On the USD we are seeing that the $ is showing weakness overtime since we had only -2300 Net position back in November and now we are sitting at -14K Net position. Now if you enjoyed this analysis smash that like button and share. If you have a different opinion please leave a comment below as I would love to get more insights and ideas. I also linked my previous idea about this asset. Trade safe !!!
by TheDayzen
2
$SPY: All time highs everywhere and not a dip to spare...AMEX:SPY The market is already rampant with speculation but here's my two cents. I know the danger that exists and trying to call the top but at this point, it almost seems inevitable that the time is near for the S&P 500 to retrace. Many of what I would call legitimate bearish signals have been rejected repeatedly leading to higher price levels. This, though frustrating for technical traders, isn't unfathomable considering that the perceived risk in the market is extremely low unlimited QE coupled with low-interest rates and an increase in individual investors has led to the markets having a level of liquidity that supports this growth and current bullish sentiment. In fact, when examining the chart it does look like the S&P 500 actually does have some more room left to the outside but at this point that room is limited and it coincides with the psychological price resistance level of $400 ($392-$408 is what I predict to be the reversal point range). At that price, $SPY will be in the range of fib extension levels that commonly signal the completion of a cycle - and looking at the chart, it does appear that the S&P 500 is possibly completing the third impulse wave of a larger multi-year cycle. At the moment, there are several divergences on multiple time frames and much of the rise in price over the last week (five days of positive price movement ending with a 4.7% gain for the week) is contrasted by reducing volume with sell volume often higher the buy volume. CBOE:VIX has returned to a strong support level which could mean another pop in volatility around the corner which could trigger a sell-off driving SPY lower into April . That being said, lack of bearish catalyst and influx of individual investors into the markets could extend the rally well into the year before wave completion. I would suggest treading carefully here trimming position and building a hedge. Puts on $SPY do not have a track record for being profitable so I would recommend rather buying AMEX:UVXY as a hedge or if not deterred by the past performance of SPY puts, ITM puts with expiration dates at least 3 months out could sufficiently counterbalance any incoming market turbulence. Short-term calls may be on fire this week but with limited upside, as it is hard to imagine the S&P 500 can extend this run after a five-day streak without any significant pullback. (Believe it or not, this is actually the abbreviated version of my analysis but it is Sunday morning and I should probably be doing other things besides charting right now tl;dr SPY will likely overextend itself on the push to $400 before volatility returns. Margin Debt, 10yr Treasury Rate, Inflation, CBOE:VIX , S&P 500 PE Ratio all on watch. Sharp correction possible by April.
AMEX:SPYShort
by myceliium
2
Gold- XAU/USD- Possible price projectionHello Traders, My previous forecast for Gold worked almost fine. It was not as accurate as I expected but worked (Link below). Here is my second forecast for Time Cycles in XAU/USD : I don’t mean that price movement will be exactly like the bar pattern on the chart. But if the time cycle zone number 1 works then the time cycle zone number 2 will work for sure. Price might move downward before the time cycle number 1. That’s fine. I am “testing” my cycles on Gold, so I will wait till the second zone to see if the first one has worked or not. If the first zone does not work then I will ignore the second zone. I will update the forecast when price gets closer to the zone number 2. Please make sure to Like and follow so you will receive notification of analysis update in a real time. Good luck P.S. Other forecasts that I've published for EUR pairs have been accurate (worked fine) but Please consider that I am testing my cycles on Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by P_T_C
2
Potential 14x incomingIt looks like EOS is coming close to breaking out of a massive descending triangle. There's a smaller descending triangle EOS is about to break out first, which will put it up by 140%. The second massive descending triangle would be putting it up by around 1400%! Currently it sit's closely on a support level around 0.00015619 and is likely to break out of the first smaller triangle within 1 - 3 more bars ( weeks ). A breakout of the smaller descending triangle will automatically lead to a push above the resistance line of the second massive descending triangle which was previously touched 4 times already. The RSI shows EOS currently in an oversold area, so it looks like a good entry point as well.
Long
by apolloriver
1
How forecasting can benefit your trading journey Hi everyone: In this quick educational video, I will go over how I incorporate “forecasting” in my trading, and how that helps me to be a better trader overall emotionally and psychologically. Couple things you “forecast” prior to the actual entry: 1. You should draw out the different possibilities on the price’s movement. Different possible scenarios if possible. IF you are looking for short, then draw out the actual move from where the current price is, and take a screenshot of the possible move. This allows you to remember your plan to execute the position once it appears. 2. You should also think about a back up plan, what if the price goes up now instead of down from your analysis ? Are you still looking for short then? Or are you going to change your bias if price action then develops bullish price action instead? You should prepare yourself if your bias is wrong, then what would you do next. 3. Utilize the R:R tool box, “forecast” the actual entry, SL, potential TP. This will allow you to understand your R: R and where you would set your first, second targets. Take screenshots if necessary to remember. 4. Forecast what you will do once price hits your TP. Are you simply just going to exit the trades now, or will the further development of price action give you extra confidence that the trade can keep going, and you should hold on to the trade? What do you want to see from the price action in order to change your thoughts? This will eliminate emotions as to whether to hold onto a trade or take profit. As you do more and more of these forecasts, the actual entry will be relatively easy. You have already forecast the possible scenarios, entry, SL, TP, continuation..etc. So there won't be any fear of losing, or fear of missing out. That will help you to keep your emotions at bay, and execute the trades accordingly. Many beginner traders often lose money because they are not prepared for what the market will do. When something happens, then they react to the situation. Often enough it's too late, and they will make a decision based on emotion. Forecasting allows you to eliminate those emotions, and let your plan run. As always, let me know if you have any questions or comments. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
9