Forecasting
BTCUSD Setting Up for Pre-Halving Rally to $8.4k+Evaluating BITSTAMP:BTCUSD on the 1h, 1D and 1W TF's
Completely ignoring the debate about the relevance of the incoming BTC Halving and its potential impact on price action, here's the micro and macro picture for Bitcoin as we head into the last weeks of April.
At the time of this post - BTCUSD is ranging from $6.8k - $7.2k in attempts to recover from the Corona Virus Market dump that plummeted price from $8k to lows of $3.5k+ in March. The halving is around the corner, expected in May 2020, and regardless of the event being 'priced in' or not, it appears BTC will potentially be back in the $8k's when the event itself occurs.
As of now, this would be invalidated by a drop below $6.1k, but the confluence of bands across several TFs suggest strong support has been rebuilt in $6.2k-$6.4k, making the set $6.1k stop loss on this analysis more than unlikely to be used.
Initial analysis of the chart suggests bullish momentum to continue due to the RSI support we've reclaimed + potential BBand Squeeze building on the 1D Chart
With price maintaining current $7.1k pressure, it would not be out of the question to see $7.3k by the start of the 3rd week of April (approx 72h from this posting). The resistance offered at $7.3k is minimum on the low TFs and It seems to be more than likely we shoot by it towards $7.6k shortly thereafter.
At this point, it would make sense for price to consolidate down to the soon-to-be reclaimed $7.3k range before continuing to $8k by end of April and into early May.
Since you need to be prepared for all events, lets assume $7.3k fails to hold after touching $7.6k, look for $6.8k and then $6.2k as potential support zones to consolidate down to
One note as we head into the halving - in the previous 2, the high of the trend (before short term consolidation) occurred at about 60% of the previous set ATH. Following this logic, BTCUSD would be around $11k for the May halving, which is entirely possible, if $8k and can be reached by the end of April 2020. That said, do not be surprised if the previous halving values were irrelevant, considering they occurred when
The world wasn't dealing with a pandemic
Wall Street wasn't as involved and futures were not traded
One arguemet that is very relevant would suggest that BTCUSD hit the expected local high for the halving, prematurely in June 2019, which then puts us at approx. $8.5k expected for the consolidation level thereafter....which is the main potential price being suggested by the technical for the actual event.
Overall, here's what seems most likely, depending on your given bias.
Ideal Bull Case - Look for $10k-$11k right before the event, with potential dumps down to $8k after the event
Less bullish case - Look for $8.5k for the event, with little change afterward as we continue. Failure to hold support however suggests dumps down to $6k afterward and a total bear trend setting in
slightly bearish case - Look for $6k around the event and then little to no change thereafter
Bears on Parade - Look for dumps down to lows from current $7.1k, with zero impact to reverse, from the halving event
BTC LONGTERM | HODLERS OUTLOOKHODLERS MUST LOOK
We are coming up to the next halving in less that 34 DAYS - Est. 13 May 2020.
This event is likely to change the value of BTC as it has over the last 3 halvings. In addition to increasing public awareness and media attention around Bitcoin.
If your reading this, you have to remember that not even 10% of the global population are actually knowledgable about Bitcoin. We as early adopters need to re-emphasise to ourselves we are submerged in the Crypto Community and crypto and its philosophies are the norm for us. Whoever we are a minority, in a current niche market.
That said, why do halvings have positive long-term effects on Bitcoins price. Well, there are a lot of theories, but a common one goes down to SUPPLY & DEMAND. If fewer bitcoins are being generated, the newly increased scarcity automatically makes them more valuable. But this doesn't happen right away.
So how has this played out in the past? History shows us that it ends up being a mixture of 'miners giving up' and 'miners hodling'. Some small number of miners will indeed give up, while majority will continue to keep mining and hold.
Nov 2012
1BTC ~ $11
2013 ATH
1BTC ~ $1,100
Jul 2016
1BTC ~ $600
2017 ATH
1BTC ~ $20,000
Predictions
May 2020
1BTC ~ $7000
2021 ATH
1BTC ~ +$30,000
2022 ATH
1BTC ~ +$80,000
Especially in our current global economic outlook I can see investors looking for alternative safe heavens.
Gold and Bitcoin being chosen.
Gold because of its track record and trust as a store of value for thousands of years.
Bitcoin because of investors analysis of ROI and business opportunity in the Crypto Ecosphere.
Hope my readers are healthy and your families are safe. My wishes go out to everyone. Stay Home! :)
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Above chart is the forecast we made on SP500. Currently SP500 is forming Wave 5. Breaking level of 2400 will confirm the formation.
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USD/CHF SELL SIGNALHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free signal!
Important: Wait for the breakout of the current trendchannel and sell the retest after rejection.
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Type: Daytrade
Market Sell: 0,94500
Stop-Loss: 0,95275
Target 1: 0,93800
Target 2: 0,93240
Target 3: 0,92440
Stop-Loss: 77.5 pips
Risk: 1-2%
Risk-Reward: 2,5
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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USOIL, Possible Buy entry!I show you at the chart the place where the price can bounce and give to us a buy entry.
It will be better to wait for a false breakout and H1 candle should close above the level.
But if the candle will close below we shouldn't open a position.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analysis.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!
USD/CAD SHORT - 6. FEB. 2020Price is about to hit major resistance. Don't short just yet, PLEASE wait when it touches the zone!. "Comment", "Like" and "Follow" are appreciated! Have a great day and be patient!
ALSO, there is a nonfarm payroll released by the USA Burea of Labor at 13:30 GMT on FEB 07. This will affect the price so make sure you are there when it happens to monitor the price.
BTCUSD Inception day 14-1-2020, not convinced yet...Greetings fellow traders,
As time goes by, the markets evolve...
If your way of TA is strong, then the path will lead its way...
More visible, more probable:
Dashed lines; Possible forming patterns
Solid lines; Confirmed patterns / Support or Resistance
Dotted lines; Possible price-action trajectories / wave trend
Lighten colors = Support | Darken colors = Resistance
' I’m trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You’re the one that has to walk through it. '
~ Morpheus, The Matrix ~
With that having quoted, this is my way of keeping order in the chaos. I call it, "Pattern Formation Level(PFL)":
Alpha > Beta > Delta > Echo > Gamma > Theta
Explanation PFL:
This is an additional stage of usage of the pattern formations. Some level of experience in pattern formations is required. You can also ignore this part and head straight to 'Today's Note', just read the patterns between the brackets.
Alpha; ST / Bullish Pennant pattern formation, a.k.a. "The End Game", a.k.a. "The Big Long". (Daily and higher time-frames)
Beta; Most recent relevant and biggest forming pattern within The Alpha forming pattern. FW / DC. (4-24 hour time-frames)
Delta; Most recent relevant forming patterns within The Beta pattern. (4-8 hour time-frames)
Echo; Most recent relevant forming patterns within The Delta pattern. (1-4 hour time-frames)
Gamma; You get the picture... (10-60 min. time-frames)
Theta; Do not thread these treacherous waters. At least for master level TA skills or higher. (10 min. and lower time-frames)
Eventually the PFL's are all connected. Gamma patterns combines into Echo pattern and Echo patterns combines into Delta patterns etc. Until the Alpha patterns has been formed. I'm not calling it just the Alpha for dominance in size. For as this pattern, is, the Alpha and Omega. Which will end current market cycles and start anew. From time to time, I might thread the secret level when I'm feeling gutsy.
Additional advantage of the PFL system is, when you have to determine whether a certain pattern will have its usual breakout direction.
By inserting pattern formations in the PFL as parameter. This makes it easier keeping track of which pattern formations are relevant to the current TA and entry or exit strategies.
It might be hard to learn, but it is certainly easy to master. As a programmer and I like playing chess, as result to my TA. I like to look ahead as far as possible. This is only doable, if you have reasonable reliable trends to follow. In time, as I gain experience in the markets. My TA skills evolves and in parallel my systems and indicators.
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Current Alpha patterns:
The End Game: Symmetrical Triangle 1st confirmations support & resistance establish, still in progress.
Current Beta patterns:
Descending Channel or Falling Wedge, currently breaking out but not yet confirmed
Current Delta patterns:
Ascending Broadening Wedge, 1st confirmations of support & resistance established, still in progress. Currently retesting resistance of the Delta(ABW) formation and also the 0.5 fib retrace. But might break through the upside and follow the break out of the greater (Beta) pattern.
Current Echo patterns:
Rising Wedge still in progress, heading towards 2nd confirmation of resistance.
Current Gamma patterns:
Symmetrical Triangle, broke out
Current Theta patterns:
This level is currently too dangerous to trade. Greater patterns might break out or follow its trajectory.
Today's Note:
Honestly, it's looking bullish. But I'm not convinced yet. Btc still has some obstacles to conquer. The 0.5 retrace. and breaking through the resistance of the Delta(ABW) but also the Echo(RW) patterns. These are lesser patterns, but 3 vs 1. That's quite a challenge. EMI 1 & 2 are becoming quite bearish. I might setup a low risk/reward short position from here. But going to wait for more concrete bear or bullish signs. However it is quite certain that something has to give very soon.
To be concluded...
Current Targets:
Exit short position / Entry long position target: ---- region
Tip's/FYI:
People = Psychology > Patterns > Indicators > Fundamentals. Nonetheless, all is crucial. Psychology? When you observe a chart. Ask yourself who's the most in pain? Bears or Bulls?
Watch & learn from experienced traders and discover your style of TA. Hence develop this, imitating will only get you as far.
The most accurate trend indicator when using logarithmic, are the; Relative-, Exponential-, Weighted-, Simple- and regular Moving Averages. At least use Heikin Ashi candles if you don't like MA's and vice versa or using both might be even better. The algorithms of these indicators adepts to logarithmic variables visually. Linear tools and pattern formations obviously do not for that matter. Since it doesn't concern logarithmic variables.
The trend is your friend!
Pattern Formations is the most accurate method, when it comes to observing the behavior of buyers and sellers. If you don't understand this, don't be lazy and google. Learn this as basics, pattern formations are ideal to combine with other methods.
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Epilogue:
Hopefully in time and it would be my honor, when other analyst implement at least some of my systems, methods and techniques into their TA. Henceforth bringing their TA skills & abilities to the next level. I have taken a lot of information from this community. However I believe. When you take, you should also share. After all, knowledge and experience are the most valuable things in life. This is why I share my daily TA. Hopefully other will learn from it, but never use someone else's TA. Always do your own do diligence before even considering trading.
If you don't want to miss out on any of my daily technical analysis. Then click or tap on follow and don't forget to smash on that like button ^^, thanks in advance. If you're worthy I'll follow you back!
In case you're wondering which indicator I'm using. She's called EMI , short for 'Epic Market Indicator' and she's a collection of diverse indicators. How to use, is in the description. You can use them like any other indicators. Search for 'epic market indicator' then add. I have recently published the latest versions. EMI 1 v3.0 & EMI 2 v2.0. Like any other instrument, practice makes perfect. If you have any input for EMI or questions about my way of TA(*Asian sound-effects*). Please leave a comment or DM me and I'll try to respond a.s.a.p. Be careful and good luck fellow traders, may the trend gods be with you!
Don't miss the great Sell opportunity in USDJPYTrading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Resistance line (108.87).
If so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
.USDJPY is in a range bound and the beginning of Downtrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 33.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 107.83
TP2= @ 106.77
TP3= @ 105.24
SL= Break above R2
DOCK consolidation channelSince signal was given DOCK was swinging within the same trade range between ~104 and ~127. Last bounce was from 113 minor support, so we may expect it to test 121 resistance and, if succeed, grow to the top of that channel at 127-128. If that happens, chances for breakout towards 137 increase exponentially.
GOLD : LONG (TF = 1H)I think that gold prices may increase slightly.
This trade is my view only in the 1 hour period.
I usually don't believe in processing less than a week's time bars, but this position can be called to stay a bit in the game.
There are risks.
So the following parameters can make this trade more risk-free:
RISK / REWARD RATIO : 1/3
POSITION SIZE : % 1
STOPLOSS : 1463.618
GOAL : 1481.273